2012 05-29 global challenges-ageing and shrinking lf_final rm
TRANSCRIPT
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Page 1 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Rainer Münz
Erste Group
IFA 11th Global Conference on Ageing
Prague, May 29, 2012
Global Challenges:
Ageing and potentially shrinking
labour forces
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Page 2 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Global demographic trends
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Page 3 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
20th Century
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Page 4 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
21st Century
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Page 5 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Reality no. 1:
Growing world population
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Page 6 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
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Page 7 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
From 6 billion to 7 billion people:
Contribution per continent to
earth’s 7th billion
Asia Africa Latin America North America Europe Oceania
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Page 8 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
3 Total Population change by Major
Area,1950-2100
Source: UN, 2010
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Page 9 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
… Europe’s, Russia’s and Japan’s
populations have already started to shrink
Projected population growth, 2010-2050, in %
Source: Berlin Institute 2010
to -20 %
-20% - -5%
-5% - 0%
0% - 25%
25% - 75%
75% - 100%
100% - 150%
150% - 200%
above 200%
n. a.
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Page 10 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Some Regions of Europe have the
most rapidly shrinking populations
Projected population change 2010-2030, in %
Source: Berlin Institute 2010
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Page 11 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Reality no. 2:
Global ageing
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Page 12 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Demographic ageing is a global phenomenon
Total Population change age groups 0-19 vs 50+, 1950-2100
Source: UN, 2010
Age 0-19 Age 50+
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Page 13 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Europe is continuously getting older
1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Alt
er
in % Men (2010) Women (2010)
Men (2050) Women (2050)
Source: Eurostat, Europop 2008
1950
2010
2050
Ag
e
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Page 14 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
… and driven by two trends
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Page 15 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
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Page 16 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Source: UNPD 2011
During the last six decades, global life
expectancy has increased by 20 years
Life expectancy by world regions, 1950-2015
30
40
50
60
70
80
1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America
North America
Oceania
World
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Page 17 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
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Page 18 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
In the same period, the overall number of
children per woman has halved
Total fertility by world regions, 1950-2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America
North America
Oceania
World
Source: UNPD 2011
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Page 19 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Today 50% of humanity live in societies with
less than 2 children per family
World population by Total Fertility, 1950-2100
Source: UN, 2010
Po
pu
lati
on
in
mil
lio
n
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Page 20 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
… however, demographic
ageing is not affecting all
regions the same way
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Page 21 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Europe and Japan have the oldest
populations
Share of age group 65+ in total population
Source: UNPop Div 2011
n. a.
to 3%
3% - 6%
6% - 9%
9% - 12%
12% - 15%
above 15%
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Page 22 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Slowly growing
population
Low life expectancy,
high fertility
Fast growing population
Increasing life expectancy,
gradually sinking fertility
Stagnating population
High life expectancy,
low fertility Shrinking population
Ageing society
Chad
Ethiopia
India
South
Africa
Egypt
Indonesia
Brazil
France
Russia
Germany
Italy
Niger
Nigeria
China
USA
Japan
The demographic development of the richer world is
in a very advanced stage: Countries with a
stagnating or shrinking native population account
for four-fifth of world economy
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Page 23 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
What challenges is the
rich world facing due to
demographic trends?
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Page 24 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Challenge no. 1:
Aging and eventually
shrinking labour forces
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Page 25 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Demographic trends affect labour
supply highly differently
Development of labour force until 2020 (in %)
Source: based on ILO data 2011
below -5%
-5% - 0%
0% - 10%
10%- 20%
above 20%
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Page 26 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
In some developed countries working-age
populations have already started to shrink
Working-age population, in million
Source: The Economist 2012
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Page 27 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
What can we do?
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Page 28 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Work 10 years longer
than today
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Page 29 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
29,6 30,2
34,0 34,2 34,4 35,036,6 37,3 37,6
39,6 39,7 40,5 41,1 42,3 42,4 43,5 43,646,3 46,5
48,2 48,6 49,2 50,0
53,7 53,856,2 56,8 57,1 57,6 57,7
60,3
65,268,0 68,6
70,5
79,8
TR MT PL MK HU SI IT BE HR LU FR SK RO GR AT BG ES EU CZ LV LT PT IE NL EE FI CY UK DK DE US JP CH NO SE IS
an
Therefore, labour force participation rate of
the age group 55-64 needs to be increased
Labour force participation rate of the age group 55-64, 2010
Source: Eurostat 2012 EU-27 average
Non EU countries
EU countries
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Page 30 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
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Page 31 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Working longer is an option, but employing
the elderly needs adaptation in several areas
Lifelong learning
New pension system
New salary system
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Page 32 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
… even if such measures are not
cheered by parts of the electorate
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Page 33 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Increase female
labour force
participation
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Page 34 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Increase labour
productivity
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Page 35 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Bring in more
migrants
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Page 36 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Source: Eurostat, 2010.
Median EU-27: 40.6 years
Median Immigrants: 28.4 years
Migration helps reducing the pace
of demographic ageing
EU-27, age structure of population and of immigrants
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Page 37 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
The challenge is to attract the right skills
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Page 38 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
… via smart migration policies?
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Page 39 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Figure 7c: Migrants' level of education by generation and
country of residence - 2001
5,0
7,0
9,0
11,0
13,0
15,0
17,0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Year of birth
Avera
ge n
um
ber
of
years
of
sch
oo
lin
g
US*
Canada
Italy
Spain*
Source: Fargues 2010
The US more easily attracts talent and skills
Immigrants of birth cohorts 1935-1975 in the US, Canada, Italy
and Spain by average years of schooling
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Page 40 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Tomorrow, the developed
world will compete for
workforce, especially for
young and skilled migrants
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Page 41 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
...but today, the problem
seems to be another one
Youth unemployment (age 15-24, in %)
Source: OECD
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Page 42 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
None of the mentioned
strategies alone is
enough to overcome the
ageing problem, but their
combination might do it
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Page 43 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
All strategies are highly
unpopular in Europe, but
much less so in the US
and Canada
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Page 44 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Challenge no. 2:
Integration within
increasingly diverse
societies
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Page 45 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
How to encourage integration?
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Page 46 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
How to deal with ethnic, cultural
and religious diversity?
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Page 47 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
If you want to know more
Overcrowded World?
Global Population and
International Migration
Haus Publishing
ISBN: 978-1-906598-10-5
€ 9.95; $14.95, £ 9.90
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Page 48 May 29, 2012 Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U P B A N K A G
Thank you for your attention!