2012 aif, d2s4 ppt agriculture and food security in asia future scenarios by mark w. rosegrant,...
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8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/2012-aif-d2s4-ppt-agriculture-and-food-security-in-asia-future-scenarios-by 1/20
Agriculture and Food Security in Asia:Future Scenarios
Mark W. Rosegrant, Director
Simla Tokgoz, Research FellowPrapti Bhandary, Senior Research Assistant
Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Outline
Drivers of agricultural growth and food
security
Baseline projections of supply, demand
and food security
Conclusions and policy implications
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Drivers of AgriculturalGrowth and Food Security
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food
Security
Demand drivers
– Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050
– Urbanization: Asia 2008 = 44% urban; 2050 = 64% urban
– Income growth
– Biofuels and bioenergy
– GHG mitigation and carbon sequestration
– Conservation and biodiversity
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food
Security
Supply drivers
– Water and land scarcity
– Climate change
– Investment in agricultural research
– Science and technology policy
– Management and governance reform
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Baseline Projections of
Supply, Demand and
Food Security
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Total Cereal Yields – Asia
Annual Average Growth Rate
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Asia Total Cereal Crop Area-
Baseline Projections
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Source of Cereal Production Growth,
2010 - 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Percent Change in World Prices of Cereals
2010-2050, baseline
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Percent Change in World Prices of Meat
between 2010 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Asia Cereal Production-
Baseline Projections
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Asia Meat Production-
Baseline Projections
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Asia Per Capita Cereal Food Demand-
Baseline Projections
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Asia Per Capita Meat Demand-
Baseline Projections
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Asia Net Trade Cereals-
Baseline Projections
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Asia Net Trade Meat-
Baseline Projections
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Population at the Risk of Hunger - Asia
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Conclusions and PolicyImplications
8/2/2019 2012 AIF, D2S4 PPT Agriculture and Food Security in Asia Future Scenarios by Mark W. Rosegrant, Simla Tokgoz and Prapti Bhandary
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Increasing crop productivity: agricultural research, on-
farm management, and rural investment
•Emphasis on crop and livestock breeding (includingbiotechnology) targeting abiotic and biotic stresses
• Water harvesting, precision agriculture, minimum tillage,
integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest
management, reduce post harvest losses• Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to
markets, information, credit, inputs, mobile phone towers
Agricultural Productivity