2012 election: what we’ve learned carroll j. doherty associate director pew research center for...
DESCRIPTION
Dec. 10, www.pewresearch.org Obama Lost Whites by 20 Points – And Won Based on exit poll data from National Election PoolTRANSCRIPT
2012 Election: What We’ve Learned
Carroll J. DohertyAssociate Director Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Pew Center on the States – Voting in America 2012December 10, [email protected]
2Dec. 10, 2012 www.pewresearch.org
The Electorate – The Most Diverse Ever
• Changing Composition of the Electorate Helped Obama
• Change from 2008 Was Modest – Nonwhites 28% of All Voters, Up From 26%
• Demographics of Future Elections Will Look Much Different than Those of Today
3Dec. 10, 2012 www.pewresearch.org
Obama Lost Whites by 20 Points – And Won
Based on exit poll data from National Election Pool
www.pewresearch.org 4
Changing Face of the American Voter
Dec. 10, 2012
Dramatic Shifts among Young Voters - Now 42% Nonwhite
Voters 18-29 Voters 30+
Based on exit poll data from the National Election Pool
2000 2004 2008 2012
74 68 62 58
12 15 18 17
10 13 14 18
4 4 6 7
Other
Hispanic
Black
White
42% Nonwhite
2000 2004 2008 2012
82 79 77 76
9 11 11 126 7 7 83 3 4 4
24% Nonwhite
5Dec. 10, 2012 www.pewresearch.org
Age Gap in Voting Preferences
Based on exit poll data from the National Election Pool
6Dec. 10, 2012 www.pewresearch.org
By 2050, A Majority-Minority Nation
Population By Race And Ethnicity, Actual and Projected:
Pew Social and Demographic Trends
White Hispanic Black Asian
85
3.511
0.6
63
17 125
47
29
13 9
1960 2011 2050
7
All adults
Likely voters
Non-voters
White, non-Hispanic 68 74 59Black non-Hispanic 11 12 10Hispanic 12 7 21
18-29 21 13 3630-49 33 31 3550-64 29 33 2065+ 16 21 8
Dec. 10, 2012 www.pewresearch.org
Profile of Nonvoters: Younger, More Hispanic
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
8Dec. 10, 2012 www.pewresearch.org
Social Media and Politics
• Facebook, Twitter Growing News Sources
• They Help Drive Campaign Narrative …
• A Mostly Negative Narrative
• A “Fifth Estate” of Political Actors – Partisan and Passionate
9Dec. 10, 2012 www.pewresearch.org
Online Participatory Politics
Pew Internet & American Life Project
10Dec. 10, 2012 www.pewresearch.org
Social Networkers: Beyond Red vs. Blue
Pew Internet & American Life Project
11
Campaign 2012: A Final Word
Dec. 10, 2012 www.pewresearch.org
Compared with past elections, more or less discussion of issues?
Compared with past elections, more or less mudslinging?
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
2008 2012
57
3834
51
More than usual Less than usual
2008 2012
54
68
2719
More than usual Less than usual
www.pewresearch.org 12
Few Complaints about Voting Process
How well was the voting process managed in the area where you live?
Did you have any problems voting this year (other than waiting in line)?
Dec. 10, 2012
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
73%Very well
20%Fairlywell
Not well6% Yes
No
3
97
Yes
No
9
91
Do you know anyone who tried to vote but was not able to?
2012 Election: What We’ve Learned
Carroll J. DohertyAssociate Director Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Pew Center on the States – Voting in America 2012December 10, [email protected]