2012 Elections In Maryland

Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community Collegewww2.aacc.edu/csli

National ResultsPopular Vote

Electoral College

Obama 50 332Romney 48 206

National Results

2008 2012 2012-2008

Obama % 53 50 -3

Popular vote 69,456,897

61,713,086

-7,743,811

Electoral College 365 332 -33

McCain/Romney% 46 48 +2

Popular vote 59,934,814

58,510,150

-1,424,664

Electoral College 173 206 +33

How did the pollsters do?Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4

1-Se

p 2 3 4 5 6 7 11 12 13 14 15 16 20 23 24 25 29 30

Otobe

r 2 4 6 10 15 16 18 21 23 24 26 28

Nov. 4

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

47 47 47 47

48

49 49

50 50

49

48 48

47 47

48 48

50

49 49 49

50

49

48

47

46

47

48 48 48 48 48

49

46 46 46 46

45 45

44 44 44 44

45

46 46

47

46

45

44 44

45 45 45

46 46

47

48 48

47 47

48

47 47

46ObamaRomneyOct

22Oct 16

Oct 3

Oct 11

Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters

Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll (Likely voters)

Map of Battleground States

Nev.

Colo.

Iowa

Wis

Ohio

Va.

NH

Fl.

NC

Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1

Colorado Obama RomneyVotamatic Drew Linzer votamatic.org/ 51 49Nate Silver fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/ 50.1 48.9RCP www.realclearpolitics.com/ 48.6 47.7

Average 49.9 48.5Actual results 51 47

FloridaVotamatic 50 50Silver 49.4 50.1RCP 47.9 49.1

Average 49.1 49.7Actual results 50 49

IowaVotamatic 51.7 48.3Silver 51 48RCP 48.2 46.2

Average 50.3 47.5Actual results 52 46

NevadaVotamatic 52 48Silver 51.3 47.8RCP 50 47.3

Average 51.1 47.7Actual results 52 46

New HampshireVotamatic 51.7 48.3Silver 51 48.2RCP 48.8 47.5

Average 50.5 48Actual results 52 46

Obama RomneyNorth Carolina

Votamatic 49 51Silver 48.4 51RCP 46 49.8

Average 47.8 50.6Actual results 48 51

OhioVotamatic 51.6 48.4

Silver 50.7 48.1RCP 48.9 46.6

Average 50.4 47.7Actual results 50 48

VirginiaVotamatic 51 49

Silver 50.1 49.2RCP 47.9 47.4

Average 49.7 48.5Actual results 51 48

WisconsinVotamatic 52.4 47.6

Silver 51.6 47.6RCP 50 45

Average 51.3 46.7Actual results 53 46

Total Votamatic none None

Silver 50.5 48.6RCP 47.4 47.3

Average 49 4850 48

Electoral CollegeVotamatic (and actual results) 332 206Silver 300 237RCP 290 248Average 307 230

Dem Margins: EC vs. PV (1952-2012)

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-66-72

16

80

-22

-94

10

-82

-96

-58

38 40

0

-6

36

24

-11-15

0

23

0

-23

2

-10-17

-7

5 8

-4 -3

73

Dem EC Margin Dem PV Margin

Popular Vote: 1952-2012

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

4442

50

61

43

38

50

41 41

46

43

49 48 48

5351

5557

50

38

43

61

48

51

58

53

38

41

48

51

4648

Dem Rep

Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1714

58

90

39

3

55

9

2

21

69 70

5047

68

62

8386

42

10

61

97

45

91

98

79

31 30

5053

32

38

DemEC% RepEC%

Exit Poll: DemographicsTrait Obama Romne

y

Men (47% ) 45 52

Women (53%) 55 44

18-29 (19%) 60 37

30-44 (27%) 52 45

45-64 (38%) 47 51

65+ (16%) 44 56

Urban (32%) 62 36

Suburban (47%)

48 50

Rural (21%) 39 59

White (72%) 39 59

Black (13%) 93 7

Latino (10%) 71 27

Trait Obama Romney

Liberal (25%) 86 14

Moderate (41%) 56 41

Conservative (35% )

17 82

Republican (32%)

7 93

Independent (29%)

45 50

Democrat (38% ) 92 8

<$100k (72%) 54 44

>$100 (28%) 44 54

Protestant (53%)

42 57

Catholic (25%) 50 48

None (12%)

70 26http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2012/return_on_investment/

Exit Poll: IssuesTrait Obama Romne

y

Abortion legal (59 ) 67 31

Abortion illegal (36 )

22 77

Health Care (18%) 75 24

Housing market (8%)

63 32

Foreign Policy (5%) 56 33

Unemployment (38%)

54 44

Taxes (14%) 32 66

Deficit (15%) 32 66

Economy (59%) 47 51

Rising Prices (37%)

49 49

Trait Obama Romney

Don’t repeal HC reform (44%)

87 13

Repeal (49%) 15 83

Increase taxes for all (13%)

52 44

Increase taxes for rich (47%)

70 29

No tax increase (35%)

23 75

Most illegal immigrants should be offered legal status (65%)

61 37

Deport (28%) 24 73

More in touch - Obama/Romney (53%)/(43%)

91 98

National Demographic Lessons• Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African-

Americans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30• Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women, • Uncertain: Suburban, Catholics• Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., white,

Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+• Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural

Senate:

Dem Wins

Rep Wins

23 8

7 open 3 open

3 (or4) party

change

1 party change

+ 2 indep.

Maine/Vermont

Margin (%)

0-5 6-10 11-15 15+

Dem 4 7 2 14

Rep 2 0 0 6

Dems: 55 (with 2 independents) Reps: 45

National Results: Election findings

• Presidential races lean Democratic but without clear hegemony

• Senate races lean Democratic, but depends on local candidates

• House – resists Democratic trend due to Republican gerrymandering (based on 2010 state legislative election results)

• Shifting coalitions – “new emerging Democratic majority” underlies trend

• Elections close enough – perfect ground game needed to win

Maryland: Presidential Results

In percent 2008 2012 2012-2008

Obama 61.9 61.3 -.6

McCain/Romney

36.5 36.6 +.1

In votes 2008 2012 2012-2008

Obama 1,629,467 1,547,359 -82108

McCain/Romney

959,862 923,684 -36178

Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting

County Obama RomneyAllegany County 32 65 Anne Arundel County 48 49 Baltimore City 87 11 Baltimore County 57 41 Calvert County 45 53 Caroline County 37 61 Carroll County 32 65 Cecil County 39 59 Charles County 65 34 Dorchester County 46 53 Frederick County 47 51 Garrett County 23 75 Harford County 39 58 Howard County 59 38 Kent County 49 49 Montgomery County 71 27 Prince George's County 90 9 Queen Anne's County 34 64 St. Mary's County 41 57 Somerset County 48 51 Talbot County 43 56 Washington County 40 58 Wicomico County 46 52 Worcester County 40 58

Presidential Vote by County, 2012

Dream Act by County, % Supporting

Redistricting by County, % Supporting

Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting

All Votes by County, % Supporting (ranked by “overall”)

PercentagesDream (Q4)

Redistricting (Q5) SSM (Q6)

Casinos (Q7) Obama Overall

Standard Deviation

Majorities in 8 21 6 12 6 11Garrett County 36 46 27 42 23 35 10Carroll County 37 46 43 45 32 41 6Allegany County 39 51 34 59 32 43 12Caroline County 40 59 37 46 37 43 9Queen Anne's County 40 54 44 47 34 44 7Washington County 39 50 38 57 40 45 8Harford County 41 58 44 47 39 46 7Cecil County 43 65 44 43 39 47 10Talbot County 47 56 48 42 43 47 6Dorchester County 47 62 38 50 46 49 9Kent County 49 56 49 42 49 49 5Anne Arundel County 49 54 52 46 48 50 3Worcester County 47 67 42 54 40 50 11Calvert County 46 62 45 57 45 51 8Frederick County 49 56 51 52 47 51 3St. Mary's County 47 64 44 58 41 51 10Somerset County 52 67 34 54 48 51 12

Wicomico County 51 71 39 54 46 52 12Baltimore County 52 59 51 49 57 54 4Howard County 61 65 59 47 59 58 6Charles County 60 73 45 61 65 61 10Montgomery County 72 65 65 55 71 66 7Baltimore City 70 73 57 53 87 68 14Prince George's County 75 78 49 60 90 70 16

Overall 58/42 64/36 52/48 52/48 63 51

Lessons for State Elections

• Democratic hegemony remains unchanging• Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery,

PG, Charles, Baltimore City• Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County• Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent,

Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester

Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012

District Obama 08

McCain 08

Obama 12

Romney 12

Obama 12-08

McCain-

Romney

1 51 47.7 51.6 45.4 +.6 -2.3

2 49.9 49.4 49.4 47.1 -.5 -2.3

3 36.5 63.5 35 62 -1.5 -1.5

4 58.5 40.9 56.7 40.6 -1.8 -.3

5 43.3 55.9 40.7 56.6 -2.6 +.7

6 57.8 41.6 53.3 44.3 -4.5 +2.7

7 44 55.5 41.7 55.9 -2.3 +.4Absentee/Early/ Provisional

52 47.3 58.4 40.3 +6.4 -7

Total 48.2 50 48.3 49.2 +.1 -.8Libertarian: ‘08 = .5 ‘12 = 1.4 Green: ’08 = .7 ‘12 = .7 Total: 1.2/2.1

Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Early30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

51 50

37

59

43

58

44

52

48 49

64

41

56

42

56

47

52

49

35

57

41

53

42

58

45

47

62

41

57

44

56

40

Ob '08 MC '08 Ob '12 Rom '12

AA County: Early Vote - 2012

Obama Romney

Early Vote Center

Election Day

Early/Provsional/Absentee

Obama Early-

Election Day

Obama Early – Romney

Early

1 51.6 70.9 27.7 19.3 43.22 49.4 60.9 37.8 11.5 23.13 35 45.2 53.3 10.2 -8.14 56.7 66.5 32 9.8 34.55 40.7 45.7 53.1 5 -7.4

Overall 48.3 49.2 -.9

AA County Lessons• County has purple qualities – support some

Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less so others (Dream, Casinos)

• Maximum turnout election still results in Democratic electoral minority for top of ticket

• Local Democratic candidates still need to be cautious about distancing themselves from national and statewide candidates

• Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6; Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2

AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Lib, 84

13

-67

64

-76

-9-13

2

-48

2 1

36

50

-20-21

-8

8

-8 -15

90

2922

-29-21

60

-13

-55

13

21

-13

1911

-12

6

22

13

-7-10

-4

71+, -21

Dream Act by Demographic Variables

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Lib, 43

Mod, -4

Cons, -56

Dem, 17

Rep, -53

-16

-39

-27-31

-6

PGW, 11

-34

-14-16 -18

-9-15 -15

Student, 17

-47

Not LabMkt, 11

-19

-2

NoRel, 36

-26

WhiteEvang, -52

-26

Jewish, 30

-23

-35

Spiritual, 12

-21

-14

Sep/Div, 5

-2

-21

-7

Same Sex Marriage by Demographics

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Lib, 65

20

-48

30

-38

20

HS Dip, -25

-7-10

1218

-12

-3

-15

1411

8

26

6

-24

47

31

-15-21

40

-7

-22

35

-3

40

-8

-17

22 21

51

-3-5-6

-24

Dream Act by Demographic Variables

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Lib, 43

Mod, -4

Cons, -56

Dem, 17

Rep, -53

-16

-39

-27-31

-6

PGW, 11

-34

-14-16

-18

-9-15 -15

Defense, -48

Student, 17

-47

Not LabMkt, 11

-19

-2

NoRel, 36

-26

WhiteEvang, -52

-26

Jewish, 30

-23

-35

Spiritual, 12

-21

-14

Sep/Div, 5

-2

-21

-7

AAC: Demographic Lessons

• Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30

• Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women, $150-250k

• Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 61-70

• Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50-150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic, married, males, 41-60, 71+

• Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree, Other Christians, White Evangelicals