2012 general election prediction
DESCRIPTION
2012 General election predictionTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
November 6th, 2012
![Page 2: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Electoral Map 2012
![Page 3: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Polling Accuracy
The two most accurate pollsters in 2008 were Rasmussen and PEW (tied).
FiveThirtyEight ranked in the top 5. All three calculated the popular vote
breakdown to be: Obama 52% / McCain 46% (± fractions of a percentage point).
In 2004, the RCP only missed WI and in 2008, it only missed IN and NC, the two closest states won by Obama.
Combined, the state averages were off by just 2.8 points in 2008 and 1.9 points in 2004 – not perfect, but provide somewhat reliable predictions for 2012.
Rather than rely on one poll alone such as ABC/Fox, RCP averages many polls together for more accurate results.
![Page 4: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Prediction: Romney (200)
Colorado (9) Active Registered Voter
Stats: 32% D, 34% R, 34% U The number of
unaffiliated voters in CO has increased by 225,000 since 2008, making it a closer race for each candidate
Early voter reg. stats: 37% R, 35% D
Voted Republican in 5 of the last 7 elections
Entrepreneurial, wealthy state
Unemployment rate above national average
![Page 5: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Prediction: Romney (229)
Florida (29) Active Reg. Voter Stats:
41% D, 36% R, 23% U 67% white, 13.5% Latino,
13.3% black Jewish pop. account for
8% of likely voters in FL According to the AJC,
Jewish support for Obama in FL has dropped from 76% to 69%, a favorable shift for Romney
Historically, Latino voter turnout has been low Estimated Romney gets 61% of white vote
Was a red state in 4 of the last 6 elections
![Page 6: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Prediction: Obama (207)
Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections
Unemployment rate below the national average
Des Moines Register poll on Nov. 3rd confirms that Obama is leading in IA by +5
The state that propelled him out of the caucuses and toward the Democratic nomination
Iowa (6)
![Page 7: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Prediction: Obama (223)
Leaning Obama In a poll by the
Detroit Free Press, 50% of respondents said that the auto bailout was a deciding factor in their vote. Obama won the support of 67% of those votes
An Obama campaign ad showed Romney’s article from 2008 in the NY Times titled “Let Detroit go Bankrupt”
Michigan (16)
![Page 8: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Prediction: Obama (229)
Nevada (6) RCP margin of error is
about 3% which means that Obama’s support actually ranges between 47.2% and 53.2%
Frequently a swing state; last 6 elections it was 3x blue/3x red
Large % registered voters – Independent
54% white, 27% Hispanic, 9% black
Booming population 3rd most urban state
in terms of pop.
![Page 9: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
New Hampshire (4)
Population 94.6% white (one of the nation’s lowest minority-populated states)
30% R, 29% D, 40% U 54% of women favor
Obama (52% of likely voters)
56% of men favor Romney (48% likely voters)
51% of voters aged 50+ favor Obama (54% likely voters)
Prediction: Obama (233)
![Page 10: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
North Carolina (15)
Prediction: Romney (244)
Leaning Romney Since 1980, it’s voted
red (except for 2008) According to
Rasmussen Reports, male voters in NC prefer Romney by 66% to 31%, female voters support Obama 58% to 40%
93% of NC Reps and 22% of NC Dems favor Romney. 77% NC Dems favor Obama
![Page 11: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Prediction: Obama (251)
Has gone with the winner in every election since 1964
The largest newspaper in OH, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, which has endorsed the winner in all but two elections since 1964, endorsed Obama
Unemployment rate below the national avg. - believes he deserves a second chance
Ohio (18)
![Page 12: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Virginia (13)
Prediction: Obama (264)
Voted Republican in every election since 1968, except for 2008
Fairfax County support: In 2008, Obama won 60% of the vote as opposed to McCain’s 39% (due to Republican stance on businesses – most jobs in Fairfax are from gov’t contractors
Large minority pop., young voters, and suburban independents
![Page 13: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Prediction: Obama (274)
Democratic in the last 6 elections
Unemployment rate below the national average
Despite the fact that Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan, has been a Republican representative of WI since 1999, Obama is winning the state by generous margins
Obama has held the lead for the entire month of October
Wisconsin (10)
![Page 14: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Pennsylvania (20)
Prediction: Obama (294)
Since 1992, PA has voted Democratic
In the last 60 years, the candidate who carried the state has also won the national popular vote in every election but two.
Philadelphia suburbs is left-leaning, driven by women Republicans are linked with opposition to abortion /same-sex marriage.
![Page 15: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Electoral College Map Prediction
![Page 16: 2012 General Election Prediction](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022061217/54b4b4404a7959a87c8b4567/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Obama Wins Re-Election
WinnerLoser