2012 ite annual conference allen nie, phd, pe, hmm june 24 -27, santa barbara, ca sr 46 improvement...
TRANSCRIPT
2012 ITE Annual Conference
Allen Nie, PhD, PE, HMM
June 24 -27, Santa Barbara, CA
SR 46 Improvement PSR/PDS Study
Presentation Outline
Background
Improvement Alternatives
Traffic Modeling
Traffic Operations Analysis
Project Status
Lessons Learned
Project Location – Paso Robles
CambriaWasco
SR 46 E in Paso Robles
Past Studies
SR 46 E Comprehensive Traffic Survey, 2005
Golden Hill Retail Center TIA, 2007
State Route 46 E Parallel Routes Study, 2008
SR 46 E Comprehensive Corridor Study, 2009
Paso Robles General Plan Update, 2011
Existing Intersection & Mainline LOS
2025 Intersection & Mainline LOS
Delays
Source: Caltrans SR 46 E CCS
Paso Robles Land Use
Traffic Issues – Local Perspective
S
Improvements along SR 46
Location Improvement Status
US 101/SR 46 SB Ramps
Add WBL and EBT lanes In construction, to be completed in 2014
US 101 / SR 46 NB Ramps
Add WBT lanes To be completed by CT in the future
SR 46 / Golden Hill Rd Restriping, add left turn lanes on all approaches;
widen northbound approach to
Completed
SR 46 E / Airport Rd Widen SR 46 to 4 lanes from Airport Rd to
Shandon
Completed
SR 46 / Union Rd TBD by this study PSR
The PSR Project Team
Alignment Alternatives
ALT 1 –Two-way Stop-controlled (No Build)
ALT 2 – Signalization
ALT 3 – Roundabout (West)
ALT 4 – Roundabout (East)
ALT 5 – Overcrossing
ALT 6 – Interchange
ALT 4 – Roundabout (East)
ALT 6 – Interchange
Caltrans’ Responsibility
Maintain / Increase Hwy 46 throughput
Reduce travel delay• Traffic controls (signal)
• Congestion (queue spillovers, weaving issues, etc)
Improve travel time reliability
Multimodal and safety
Vision - grade separation, limited # of access points
City’s Expectation
Easy access to Highway 46 and US 101
Better & reliable connectivity
Support multimodal transportation (bike & Ped)
Fit into the City’s Circulation Master Plan
Cost concerns
Phased development
City’s Circulation Master Plan
Work Process
Kickoff Meeting
Traffic Modeling
Operational Analysis
Alternative Assessment
Project Management
and QA/QC
Traffic Data
Field Survey
Alternative Development
City of Paso Robles Traffic Model
City model based on the SLOCOG county model
Three-step highway model
Feedback loop
Detailed GIS roadway network
Horizon years modeled• 2008
• 2030
Traffic Model Enhancement
Post-processing
Model Enhancement
Study Area
City Area
The rest
Day of Week Fluctuation
Highway 46Vs.
Local Arterial
Traffic Model Calibration
Comparison Coefficient (slope) R^2 Intercept
Before CalibrationAM Peak 1.16 0.84 65
PM Peak 1.34 0.89 86
After CalibrationAM Peak 0.99 0.99 3
PM Peak 0.99 0.99 3
Comparison % (GEH <5)
Before CalibrationAM Peak 50%PM Peak 53%
After CalibrationAM Peak 100%PM Peak 100%
Before Model Calibration After Model Calibration
GEH Statistics
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
GEH<X 63.2% 79.4% 92.6% 98.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
% o
f Sam
ples
with
(GEH
<X)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
GEH<X 8.8% 27.9% 39.7% 44.1% 50.0% 58.8% 63.2% 72.1% 77.9% 85.3% 92.6% 95.6% 95.6% 97.1% 97.1% 98.5% 98.5% 100.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
% o
f Sam
ples
wit
h (G
EH<X
)
(Before)
(After)
Traffic Simulation Criteria:
85% (GEH < 5)
Seasonal Fluctuation
Ramifications of Traffic Fluctuation
Data Collection• Use of old counts – consistency issue
Model Calibration• which month?
• Previous studies failed to consider this
Traffic operations • Worst or average
Design• For the worst?
Traffic Operations Analysis
Intersections• Signalized
• Stop-controlled
Roundabout
Hwy 46 multilane highway
Hwy 46 Weaving
Simulation (optional)
Finalized Study Scenarios & Elements
No. Description AM PM Fri Sun AM PM Fri Sun1 No Build X X X X X X X X2 Signalization X X X X X X X X3 Roundabout West X X X X X X X X4 Roundabout East X X X X X X X X5 Overcrossing X X X X X X X X6 Interchange X X X X X X X X
Near Term (2016) Long Term (2035)Improvement Alternative
Element QuanitySignalized Intersection 2
Unsignalized Intersection 6Roundabout 2
Multilane 2Weaving 1
Preliminary Results: 2016 No Build
No. Name Type Approach AM PM Fri Sun AM PM Fri Sun1 SR 46 / Golden Hill Rd Signal 28.5 35.7 38.6 30.2 C D D C Synchro
Overall 30.0 24.9 77.0 8.1NB 176.4 146.1 479.5 65.1 F F F FSB 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 A A A A
Overall 710.0 24.6 55.0 2.7SB >710.0 106.8 242.1 35.7 F F F E
82.8 115.3 77.6 17.2 F F F C Traffi xSynchro
Overall 44.5 39.4 83.1 18.7NB 154.2 191.8 413.9 40.3 F F F E
Overall 5.5 8.3 7.4 5.7EB 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.4 A A A AWB 15.3 15.6 12.9 11.2 C C B B
Overall 2.7 11.2 14.1 4.8EB 9.0 10.5 10.7 9.3 A B B AWB 17.5 31.9 42.9 13.7 C D E B
2 SR 46 / Union Rd TWSC Synchro
3 SR 46 / Airport Rd OWSC Synchro
Intersection Control Delay (Seconds) LOSMethodology
Synchro
6 Dallons Dr / Golden Hill Rd TWSC Synchro
4 Union Rd / Golden Hill Rd AWSCSynchro does not support AWSC analysis for more than 2 lanes per leg intersection.
5 Union Rd / Union Rd Connector
OWSC
D B Synchro
8 Dry Creek Rd / Union Rd TWSC Synchro
20.3 36.8 15.5 B C7 Golden Hills Plaza Driveway / Golden Hill Rd
Signal 13.1
Segment Direction AM PM Friday Sunday AM PM Friday SundayEB 9.6 10.3 11.2 14.2 A A A BWB 10.3 12.9 13.9 9.5 A B B A
Union Road - Airport Road
Hwy 46 Weaving Density (pc/mi/ln) LOS
Performance Comparison
No. Description AM PM Fri Sun AM PM Fri Sun1 No Build D D D D E E E E2 Signalization C C D D D D E E3 Roundabout West C C C C D D D D4 Roundabout East C C C C D D D D5 Overcrossing B B C C C C D D6 Interchange B B B B C C C C
Improvement Alternative Near Term (2016) Long Term (2035)
To be updated!
Project Status
Data Collection - done
Alignment Alternative - 90%
Model Development & Calibration - Approved
Traffic Forecast – 85%
Traffic Operations Analysis – 25%
Overall project - Ahead of schedule
Challenges & Lessons Learned
Data Collection• Seasonal & day of week fluctuation
• Timing / consistency
• Always validate your data
Scenarios Management
Communication• Work closely with all stokeholds
Consensus Building• Use your traffic model
Thank you! Questions & Answers
Hatch Mott MacDonald
Allen Nie, PhD, PE Tel: 925.469.8016
Richard Davis, VPTel: 925.469.5356
4301 Hacienda Dr., Suite 300 Pleasanton, CA 94588
Fax: 925.469.8011 www.hatchmott.com
Stop right here
Stop right here
City Zoning
Project Development Process
Caltrans
Project Study Report
Initial document of the project
Include• Scoping of the physical work
• Budget and schedule to deliver the project
• Define the needs and purpose
Timeframe• 6 months to 12 months
Draft Project Report
A decision making document
Document the need for a project
Summarize• Key points from the Draft Env. Doc
• The studies of the scope, cost
• Overall impact of alternatives
Help make informal decision whether to proceed to the public hearing phase of the project
ALT 1 – Two-way Stop-controlled (No Build)
ALT 2 – Signalization
ALT 3 – Roundabout West
ALT 5 – Overcrossing
Future Year O-D Calculation
),0(. ODgrowthbasefuture forecastedODcalibratedMaxODAdj
basefutureODgrowth ODforecastedODForecastedForecasted
The Difference Method
Half Clover Leaf Interchange
Roundabout Alternative
Background
The Consideration of Recession
People are talking about it
Not enough data to fully measure the impact on traffic level in the project study area
Would be a decision from the City and Caltrans• To consider it at all?
• Which growth pattern to choose?
The Impact of Recession
12 3
45
LegendLine 1: w/o recession
Lines 2 - 5: w/ recession
Traffic Modeling Task
Forecast future year traffic• 2016, 2020, 2025, 2035
Forecast traffic under different alignment alternatives• Traffic assignment
Explore traffic circulation pattern to support traffic operations analysis• E.g. weaving analysis
Support alternative development
Model Validation
Supply side
• Link attributes
• Network coding
• Turn penalties
Demand side
• Land use consolidation (type, quantity)
• Zone disaggregation
• Trip rates review
Additional Model Improvement & Testing
Upgrade to TransCAD 5.0
Additional tools in GISDK for OD operations
Sensitivity testing in the project area
Through trip assessment (select link analysis)
Trip patterns (select link / zone analysis)