2012 predictions - digital media
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SANJAY MEHTA
Predic'ons for Digital: 2012 Also known as ‘S'cking-‐my-‐neck-‐out’ syndrome, in month of December!
SANJAY MEHTA
THESE DECEMBER DISEASES
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These December Diseases • Round-‐up of the year gone by (Best of, Worst of, Ugliest of, Smartest of, etc.)
• Predic'ons for the year to come
• LaSer is easier – no one has seen it, and will take 12 months to prove you wrong; by that 'me, your predic'ons would be forgoSen
• AND if by chance, you got lucky and got many right, you can always ‘tom-‐tom’ it yourself!
• So I s'ck my neck out too.. !
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CRYSTAL BALL GAZING 2012
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My Predic'ons for Digital: 2012 1. E-‐commerce / Online Retailing will con'nue
to show blazing growth in India
2. Group Buying / Daily Deals on the other hand…the model will crack!
3. Media Spends will see a sharp swing to what is considered as digital, though boundaries will blur in 2012
4. Integra'on: Tradi'onal+Digital+Social etc. 5. Facebook pages will have to fight cluSer
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My Predic'ons for Digital: 2012 (contd)
6. Google+ will be one more promising project of Google…that didn’t go far!
7. Social Media will see a few embarrassments (and I hope it’s not our clients!!)
8. Online Reputa'on Management will be HOT
9. India’s Old Spice equivalent will happen – beyond Kolaveri (and I hope it’s our client!!)
10. We’ll see M&A in agency space
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1. E-‐COMMERCE / ONLINE RETAIL WILL CONTINUE TO ROCK AWAY..
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1. E-‐commerce / Online Retail • Last 12 months have seen serious break-‐out in volumes
• Internet penetra'on, broadband, mobile growth have all been factors
• Most important though: a new digital na've genera'on of consumers
• Blazing growth will con'nue, largely driven by Tier-‐II, Tier-‐III markets
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1. E-‐commerce / Online Retail (contd)
• Tier II / Tier III – same aspira'ons and similar means, but fewer or non-‐existent brand stores
• Flipkart, Infibeam and other leaders of today will con'nue to grow and maintain posi'on
• But several new, niche specialist sites will emerge and challenge category leadership
• Amazon will acquire, but not Flipkart
• Indian retail majors will not acquire yet
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2. GROUP BUYS / DAILY DEALS: THE MODEL WILL CRACK UP..
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2. Group Buying / Daily Deals – the business model will crack!
• Taggle was not able to tackle, and now we will see Snap Deal’s model also Snap!!
• 10% off is not a big deal, and 75% off can’t sustain – something’s got to give!
• The MRPs of Spas would have got permanently rerated; other categories can’t!
• Excess inventory – physical or perishable (hotel rooms, spa capaci'es, saloon chairs, airline 'ckets etc.) may s'll work
• Good as a niche play, can’t challenge core commerce
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3. MEDIA SPENDS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS DIGITAL
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3. Media Spends will see BIG ships • Bunch of factors will influence the ship • Economy blues will prohibit large mainline campaigns
• Good 'me for brand managers then, to walk-‐their-‐talk on digital becoming more crucial
• Boundaries between tradi'onal and digital (and all other types in between) media will blur
• But agencies playing in digital space will see larger billings, any which way
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4. INTEGRATED MARKETING
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4. Integra'on’s the word • Your TVC has a call to ac'on to a Facebook page, and the campaign extends there
• Your successful TV campaign takes a new leaf, in terms of sequels on YouTube
• Flash mobs at the mall largely aimed to create content that will viral on social media
• Bloggers invited to your press conference • Live twee'ng of your on-‐ground event
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4. Integra'on’s the word (contd.) • Business scandal that refuses to die on TwiSer • Or a story that breaks on TwiSer, and then finds wings as it gets on to mainline media
• Driving traffic to your YouTube takeover page, via banners on Rediff or Yahoo
• All of these are real, and already there today! • Will become the norm in 2012
• Think ONE-‐line: mainline-‐new media-‐social-‐digital-‐ATL-‐BTL….it’s all about the brand aper all!
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5. BRAND PAGES ON FACEBOOK WILL HAVE TO FIGHT CLUTTER
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5. Facebook pages will be cluSered • Everybody and their uncle will have one! • And new ones will keep coming up daily!
• The fight to acquire fans will con'nue; those who can’t (and few who won’t) fight will look for ‘the deeper meaning’
• Crea'vity will be at a premium – how to make my Facebook page no'ced and get more fans
• The wiser will focus on the ‘right’ community and engagement, and real business goals!
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6. GOOGLE+ WILL BE AN ALSO-‐RAN
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6. Google+..aah..Google+
• Would be acknowledged as one of the best Google projects on Social Media..
• ..before being given it’s rightul place in HISTORY
• It may morph into a decent search engine aid or a cool Web mee'ng (hangout) place, but as a wannabe social network, the game would be up
• The geeks will con'nue to use it like their private network, and swear by it too
• But Facebook will remain streets ahead
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7. WHOOPS..I AM ON SOCIAL MEDIA: EMBARRASSMENTS WILL HAPPEN!
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7. Social Media will see few boo-‐boos
• There is an itch for top management to get on to Social Media, especially TwiSer
• “Anand Mahindra’s there, I should too..”
• And as top management go, they listen less
• 2012 will see a few of them making mistakes!
• (Hope it’s not one of our clients! )
• Causes could be: not realizing consequences, or being trigger (twiSer) happy, etc.
• All hell will break lose, then.. !
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8. REPUTATION WILL HAVE TO BE MANAGED: ORM WILL BE HOT
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8. ORM will be the NORM.. ! • Online Reputa'on Management has not been taken very seriously by most brands yet
• As nega've men'ons, brand aSacks, customer revolts, etc. become common, brands will wake up
• Some will directly impact market share, some the market cap, and most will be expensive to correct
• ORM will thus become the norm – more brands will want to detect and protect, rather than fix!
• Budgets will be treated akin to insurance premia
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9. THE FIRST OF INDIA’S BIG SOCIAL MEDIA BRAND WINS WILL BE SEEN
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9. India’s big SM winner will happen • Tata DoCoMo’s fan base is largely incen've based
• Kolaveri Di was a winner, but.. • We don’t have a very strong SM winner, from regular product brands yet
• We don’t have our Old Spices or Blendtechs
• 2012 will see the big SM brand winners in India
• (hope it’s one of our clients )
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10. M&A IN AGENCY SPACE
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10. Consolida'on in the space?!
• Digital and Social Media space dominated by independent agencies, including bou'que ones
• Majors and larger agencies will scout space
• A first major acquisi'on will be seen in 2012
• Consolida'on may happen amongst the smaller agencies as well
• This, in spite of the slow economy!
SANJAY MEHTA
Ouch..the neck hurts! From s'cking out for so long..
• What’s your take? Love to hear your opinions as well..
• Meanwhile, wishing all of you a Fabulous New Year!!
Sanjay Mehta
Jt CEO, Social Wavelength
TwiSer: @sm63