2012 september 21 survey of syrian opposition, democratic models slides, june 1-july 2, 2012

7/31/2019 2012 September 21 Survey of Syrian Opposition, Democratic Models Slides, June 1-July 2, 2012

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/2012-september-21-survey-of-syrian-opposition-democratic-models-slides-june 1/19

Syrian Opposition SurveyJune 1 – July 2, 2012

Democratic Models

http://www.pechterpolls.com/



International Republican Institute (IRI) - Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls

R a t i n gA v er a g e

Government officials who are elected and those who are appointedshould both seek the opinions of citizens on new policies or programs

The government majority in parliament needs to respect the rights of the oppositionminority to criticize vigorously and without fear whatever the government does

2.15

5.72

6.12

6.34

6.42

6.59

6.63

6.67

6.81

6.81

6.83

6.84

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

The office of the president should have more power thanparliament

Non-believers should have equal rights in all aspects ofsociety

Parliament should have more power than the office of thepresident

Religious minorities should have equal rights in allaspects of society

Kurds should have equal rights in all aspects of society

If elected officials do not perform well, they should bevoted out of office by citizens

Judges should protect the rights of all groups to freespeech

Judges should stop or punish government officials forcorruption or fraud

Politicians should be elected in fair elections by secretballot

The president should have to obey the laws like

everyone else

Being democratic sometimes means different things to different people. In your own opinion, how

important are each of the following to democracy as you would like to see it develop in Syria?Please use a seven point scale where seven is very important and one means not important.




Thinking specifically of the place of religion in a new constitution and society,on a seven point scale where seven means agree strongly and one, disagree

strongly, how much do you agree with the following opinions?


2.82

3.2

3.21

3.64

4.43

5.23

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Government processes, school curriculum and theconstitution should all be secular and make no

mention of Islam at all

The constitution should be secular and make nomention of Islam but school curriculum could

include elements of Islam

Government processes, school curriculum and theconstitution should all be secular and make no

mention of religion at all

The constitution should be secular and make nomention of religion but school curriculum could

include elements of different religions in Syria

Government processes, school curriculum and theconstitution should all be based on Islam

Government processes, school curriculum and theconstitution should mention religion respectfullybut otherwise be secular and not give priority to

any specific religious viewpoint over another




On a seven point scale, how much do you agree with the following opinions aboutdemocracy, where seven means agrees strongly, and one, disagree strongly?

Rating Average

6.78 6.7 6.67

5.77

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Judges should step in tofight corruption ifparliament or the

government fail to dotheir jobs properly

The police and othergovernment officials

should protect everyoneequally against

dishonesty irrespectiveof the background of the

victim or victimizer

That parliament shouldpass laws to protect

people againstdishonesty in business

The government and themilitary should not

normally operate anybusinesses themselves





4.56

4.67

4.69

4.74

5.01

5.04

5.06

5.06

5.23

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

…is an apostate

…is an atheist

…is Alawite

…is younger than 35 years old

…is Christian

…is Kurdish

…is female

…is Sunni

…has different political beliefs

For a country to be democratic, on a seven point scale, where seven means agreestrongly and one, disagree strongly, how much do you agree that the law should

stop the government or the public from depriving someone of a job or place to liveor otherwise discriminate against a person because the person…




1.26

1.65

2.27

2.83

2.98

3.23

3.69

3.88

3.89

5.28

5.33

5.34

5.45

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Iran

Iraq

Serbia

Saudi Arabia

Romania

Egypt

South Africa

Tunisia

Qatar

Malaysia

Turkey

The U.S.

France


Rank the following countries according to their desirability as a model for internal

Syrian politics where seven is the best possible model and one is the worstpossible model.



Survey Methodology


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/2012-september-21-survey-of-syrian-opposition-democratic-models-slides-june 8/19International Republican Institute (IRI) - Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls

• From June 1-July 2, 2012, the International Republican Institute (IRI) and Pechter Polls of

Princeton, NJ (P3) surveyed members of the Syrian opposition. P3 provided consultative guidance

on the survey’s implementation and analysis.

• Due to the logistical and political complexities of the project, several months of preparation were

required for both survey development and recruitment of opposition activists who had strong in-

country networks that had not been permeated by the regime.

• To minimize the possibility of participants’ arrest, or any other form of regime interference, IRI and

P3 employed a referral or “snowball” methodology – relying strictly on dissidents who were known

to IRI or P3. Thus the survey is not a randomized sample – as would be seen in a public opinion

poll – and is also skewed heavily toward men, which is partially a reflection of the opposition’s

composition.

• The project primarily relied upon five networks to initiate the survey’s circulation. From there,

activists within and outside of Syria from different ethnic, religious, political and socioeconomic

backgrounds were encouraged to circulate the survey amongst their sub-networks.

• The questionnaire was developed with the input of all network leaders, under the guidance of Dr.

David Pollock, former chief of Near East/South Asia and Africa Research for the U.S. Information

Agency.

• The survey was translated from English into Syrian colloquial Arabic and placed on a secure server

outside of Syria with extensive security protocols to mitigate against regime tampering.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY



• Each of the five trusted network leaders was given an individual link to access the

questionnaire, allowing P3 to track progress and observe any suspicious results in real-time

throughout the survey’s administration.

• Respondents were assured that their responses to the online survey would be anonymous.

• A total of 1,168 interviews were completed by July 2, 2012, 85 percent of respondents were

male and 15 percent were female. Margin of error is not strictly applicable to this survey

because of the non-random selection of respondents.

• Of the sample of 1,168, approximately 315 of the respondents indicated they were inside Syria

when they completed the questionnaire, though there is discrepancy in the survey regarding

this figure as some respondents may have inconsistently reported the place where they live

versus the place where they were when taking the survey.

• Not all respondents answered every question. Therefore, the number of responses for any

question may not total 1,168.

• Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY



Demographics



Age

1%

18%

36%

25%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Younger than 18 18-25 26-35 36-45 Older than 45



Gender

85%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Male Female



Highest level of education achieved

6%

8%

20%

37%

9%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Some secondary education

Certificate in secondary education

Some university/vocational education

Certificate from university/vocationaleducation

Some post-graduate education

Certificate in post-graduate education



Your normal profession or occupation

13%

5%

1%

8%

14%

18%

11%

12%

2%

4%

13%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Other

Unemployed

Retired

Manager

Doctor

Engineer

Merchant

Office worker

Housewife

Laborer

Student



Your ethnic background

81%

14%

<1% 0% 1% <1%2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Arab Kurd Assyrian Armenian Turkmen Circassian Other



Your religious background

81%

<1% 0%3%

1%

11%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Sunni Alawite Shia(Not Alawite)

Christian Druze NotReligious

Other



The governorate you consider your home

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

4%

6%

6%

9%

10%

10%

11%

11%

25%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Quneitra Governorate

Al-Raqqah Governorate

Tartus Governorate

Al-Suwayda Governorate

Other

Deir ez-Zor Governorate

Latakia Governorate

Idlib Governorate

Daraa Governorate

Hama Governorate

Rif Dimashq Governorate

Aleppo Governorate

Homs Governorate

Al-Hasakah Governorate

Dimashq Governorate




The place where you now live

12%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

4%

7%

11%

23%

29%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Other

Tunisia

Cyprus

Lebanon

Qatar

Egypt

Jordan

Britain

France

Turkey

Germany

UAE

United States

Saudi Arabia

Syria



International Republican Institute (IRI) Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls

If you are now living in Syria, where are you living?

(315 of sample living in Syria)

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

5%

5%

6%

7%

11%

12%

13%

32%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Quneitra Governorate

Al-Raqqah Governorate

Deir ez-Zor Governorate

Al-Suwayda Governorate

Tartus Governorate

Syria (General)

Latakia Governorate

Daraa Governorate

Hama Governorate

Homs Governorate

Idlib Governorate

Aleppo Governorate

Al-Hasakah Governorate

Rif Dimashq Governorate

Dimashq Governorate

2012 september 21 survey of syrian opposition, democratic models slides, june 1-july 2, 2012

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