20120215 biobased economy arnhem
TRANSCRIPT
Transition Perspective on the Biobased Economy
Arnhem
15 February 2012
www.twitter.com/janrotmans
Third Industrial Revolution
1st Industrial Revolution
coal, steam engine
2th Industrial Revolution
oil, combustion engine
3th Industrial Revolution
sustainable energy, renewable resources
Transition to sustainable Economy
From To
CO2-based CO2-free
linear closed cycles
fossil fuels green resources
recyclen upcyclen
ownership trading / hiring
Philosophy
we must mimic nature and not control and force
from reductionism to holism
clean energy
clean transport
clean water technology
clean chemistry
Clean Tech Industry
global economy arising around clean tech
fastest growing industry in the world
2010: 250 billion dollar (30% growth compared to 2009)
China 55 billion Germany 42 billionUnited States 35 billionItaly 17 billion
Nederland 2 billion
Global Clean Tech
Bron: Clean Economy, Living Planet
Investeringen in Clean Tech (bron WNF)
Relative Clean Tech value added weighted by GDP 2010 [% EUR] (bron WNF)
National public expenses R&D [% EUR/BNP] (bron WNF)
Clean Tech Global Production [% EUR/BNP]
Bron: Roland Berger analysis
Clean Energy Technology growth rates per country
Bron: industrial biotechnology winter 2008
Bron: industrial biotechnology winter 2008
clean tech is the fastest growing industry in the world
absolute frontrunners are China and the US
frontrunners of the pack are Germany, UK, Denmark,Japan
the Netherlands is lagging behind (in the back of the pack)
the Netherlands is underinvesting in the clean tech
Conclusion I
Transition to Bio-Economy
biomass
plants, woord, algae, waste
photosynthesis
biorefining
biomaterials
Transition to Bio-Economy
Value Pyramid
Bron: industrial biotechnology winter 2008
big harbours
chemical industry
agriculture and agro-industry
transport and logistics
energy production
knowledge & innovation
Ideal Starting Point for the Netherlands
technological
adjustment of logistical system
new infrastructure (new pipelines)
adapted harbours
changing material streams
different agraricultural chains
societaldifferent societal relationships
adjusted law and regulation
sustainability
Evolutionary Revolution
agriculture must be untwined from the fossil sector
chemical sector must be untwined from the fossil sector
chemical sector must be converted into food-health sector
runs into the vested interests of petro-chemical sector
and agricultural sector
demands for radical change and will take decades
Interwoven Sub Transitions
Predevelopment
Stabilisation
2050
Sustainable bio-economy
Acceleration
Take-off
current situation
2000 2012 time
Phase of transition bio-economy
Scale of transition bio-economyMacro-niveau - scarcity of fossil fuels + supply security + climate change - financial-economic crisis
Meso-niveau - global climate treaty + WBC Sustainable Development. - EU laws & regulation - Dutch laws & regulation
Micro-niveau - pilots + technological expertise + entrepreneurs - local laws & regulation
Transition
sweeping change in structure, culture, practices
structure: institutional, economic, physical infrastructure
culture: paradigms, shared notions and views
practices: routines, rules, behaviour
radical shift in thinking & acting at systems level in small steps
Transition is Power Shift
regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests
niche: emerging, divergent structure, culture and practices at small scale level
niche wants to develop power and to take over theexisting regime; the regime protects itself against theupcoming niches through absorption or elimination
transition = regime-exchange = power shift
Three key transition patterns
bottom-up(i) niches emerge, cluster and form a niche-regime that ultimately takes
over the regime, forming a new regime
top-down(ii) a massive, fast change in the landscape leads to big pressure on
the regime, resulting in a regime-change
hybrid(iii) niches emerge and form a niche-regime within the incumbent regime that gradually co-evolve into a new regime
Transition to bio-economy
leads to different practices, institutions, laws and rules,
financial streams and power relationships
requires institutional innovation: agriculture and chemistry
needs to cooperate intensely from diverse cultures
demands for radical change in incremental steps
bio-economy transition is still in predevelopment phase
bio-economy transition is the most complex transition
in the Netherlands bio-economy is coupled to energy
strong resistance from regime in the Netherlands
Conclusion II
How to accelerate the Bio-transition?
mental barriers
legal barriers
policy barriers
financial barriers
I. Removing Barriers
return on investments for bio-economy is
5 times higher than for fossil economy
in terms of:
- contribution to innovation
- employment
- economic structure reinforcement
Mental Barriers
Law- and regulation fossil oriented
creates a non-level playing field
- making ethylene from bio-ethanol (with import tax)
or from nafta (oil product, without import tax)
- many residual currents are considered as waste in
waste materials law
Legal Barriers
only signposts for biomass in the direction of energy
no signposts for biomaterials / biochemicals
- biofuels are obligatory and biomaterials not
- European biofuels guideline creates artificlasuper market
for biofuels
value pyramid turned upside down
Policy Barriers
bio-economic system is full of system flaws
and is still fully fossil oriented
persistent problem
Conclusion III
optimalisation route
more efficient use of natural resources
closing cycles, using residual currents
transformative route
new products and materials biorefining , without fossil fuels
II. Dual Routes
Examples of Bio-economy Zeeland
DOWintegral watermanagement, closed watercycle, not from
Biesbosch important initiative, huge amount of water
DOW bcomes motor for bio-chemistry?
Cargill starch and proteins, using residuals and upgrading proteins,
closing cycles within the company, is part of DNA, example for others
2th generation biomass?
Examples of Bio-economy Zeeland
Thermphosphosphor production on different basis, phosphor from wheat & sludge
C2C with Braungart, is searching- and learning process
on the way to green resources and bio-chemistry?
Heros Ecoparkresiduals for high-quality use, using copper and sink better
new chemical company arises in this way, facilitating partners in chain
route to biochemical company with better reputation?
niche-regime players
small bio-entrepreneurs together with big traditional companies
cross-sectoral
paper industry, agrofood sector, dairy, chemical, energy sector
societal coalition
business / research / education / ngo’s / intermediaries
III. New Coalitions
consumers will play a key role in the transition
- approaching communities
- using social media
- participation in innovation spaces
IV. Engaging Consumers
bottleneck is NOT the technology BUT the process
99% of the money goes to biotechnology
requires smart and subtle manoeuvring
It’s the process stupid!
V. Facilitating the process
VI. Facilitating the process
1. stringent norms for sustainability of biomass
2. creating innovation space
3. removing barriers
4. forming unthought coalitions and networks
VII. Visionary & Practical
- realising in practice what is already possible
factory for production of bio-ethylene from bio-ethanol
- orientation to excellence at high levels in value chain
high-quality products ; knowledge-intensive innovation
- searching, learning and experimenting
innovation spaces with frontrunners
Recipe for Transition Failure
cannot be realized with only players
from the fossil regime with vested interests
(topsectoren policy of Dutch government)
a turkey doesn’t put itself on the christmas menu
new, clean and circular economy is arising: clean tech
transition to bio-economy is still in development stage
is of crucial importance for Europe and for the Netherlands
22 millions Europeans involved in potence
smart facilitation of the bio-transition is needed
more frontrunners in new coalitions are needed
searching, learning and experimenting
Conclusions