2013 extensive yukon ice jam and freshet flooding extreme events... · 2013 extensive yukon ice jam...
TRANSCRIPT
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2013 EXTENSIVE YUKON ICE JAM AND FRESHET FLOODING
J Richard JanowiczWater Resources Branch
Yukon Department of EnvironmentWhitehorse, Yukon
CCRN Workshop on Extreme Weather and Hydrology, Canmore, AB, February 11-12, 2013
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2013 FLOODING
2013 Biggest Flood Year in 30 years
• 7 major ice jam / freshet floods
• Ice jam floods in unique locations
• Freshet floods in unique locations
• Both in some locations
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In Flood
2013 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
Low
Moderate
High
Coffee Creek
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2012 – 13 WINTER METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
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APRIL 1 SWE
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APRIL 2013 METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
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MAY 1 SWE
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2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Deg
ree
Day
s Fr
ost (
Deg
C)
DAWSON DEGREE DAYS FROST
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-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
24-Mar 3-Apr 13-Apr 23-Apr 3-May 13-May 23-May 2-Jun 12-Jun
Tem
pera
ture
(0C
)
Mean
2013
2013 DAWSON AIR TEMPERATURE
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2013 BREAK-UP
Return to Normal Temperatures Resulted in Rapid Melt and Runoff
Rapid Discharge and Stage Increase
Breaking Ice into Large and Strong Blocks
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COMPRESSED RUNOFF PERIOD
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PELLY RIVER AT ROSS RIVER
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MAY 1 SWE
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LIARD RIVER BASIN – FLOOD OF RECORD
Liard River at Upper Crossing 1960 – 2013
Annual Maximum Peak Flow 2012
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LIARD RIVER BASIN - 2012
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MAY 1 2012 SWE
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0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2-Jun 3-Jun 4-Jun 5-Jun 6-Jun 7-Jun 8-Jun 9-Jun 10-Jun
Cum
ulat
ive
Prec
ipita
tion
Dai
ly P
reci
pita
tion
[mm
]
Daily Precipitation - Liard Basin
Frances Lake
Tuchitua
Hasselberg
JUNE 2 – 7, 2012 RAINFALL – LIARD BASIN
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YUKON CLIMATE WARMING??
Major Recent Flooding Events (2007, 2009, 2012, 2013)
Some Evidence Climate Warming Yukon Reality
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HISTORICAL TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION
•Summer Temp + 2 - 6 o C
•Winter Temp + 4 - 6 o C
•Summer Precip + 5 - 10 %
•Winter Precip -10 - + 20 %
Annual National Precipitation Departure
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (m
m)
LOG CABIN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT 1958 - 2013
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HYLAND RIVER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT 1976 - 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (m
m)
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• Greater Precipitation
• Higher Temperatures
• Compressed Runoff Period
CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
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CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
Increasing Peak Flows Due to Melting Glaciers / High Elevation Snowmelt
Atlin River nr Atlin
Maximum Annual Peak Flow
100
150
200
250
300
350
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Dis
char
ge
(m3 /
s)
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CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
MARSH LAKE MAXIMUM STAGE 1950 – 2013
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RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS
110
120
130
140
150
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010Brea
k-up
Dat
es (J
ulia
n Da
y)
Break-up Timing
Yukon River at Dawson (1896-2013)
•Break-up Timing Advanced 6 days
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RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Br
eak-
up E
leva
tion
(m)
Break-up Severity
Yukon River at Dawson Annual Maximum Break-up Elevation (1896 - 2013)Dawson - 1979
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RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS
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TELECONNECTIONS??
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HYLAND RIVER SWE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (m
m)
LOG CABIN SWE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (m
m)
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LOG CABIN SWE / SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (PDO INDEX)
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HYLAND RIVER SWE / SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
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DAWSON DEGREE DAYS FROST / SST
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OTHER TELECONNECT –
IONS ?
1ENSO 2MJO 3PNA 4AO
11-Dec La Nina N-P P
12-Jan La Nina P-0-P P-N
12-Feb N/A N/A N/A
12-Mar La Nina N-P-P P-P-0
12-Apr 0 P-N 0
12-May 0 N-0-0 P
12-Jun 0 P-N-P N-0
12-Jul 0 0-0-N N-P-0
12-Aug 0 N-0-P P-N-N
12-Sep 0 0-0-N P-0-N
12-Oct 0 N N
12-Nov 0 0-N N-P-N
12-Dec 0 N-N-P N
13-Jan 0 P-N P-0 0-N-P
13-Feb 0 8,1,6 P P-N
13-Mar 0 6,7,3 P-N-0 N
13-Apr 0 3,4,N,N 0-N N-P-0
13-May 0 12,34,5,N N P
13-Jun 0 N,N,N,1 N P
13-Jul 0 2,3,N,N N 0
13-Aug 0 N,N,8,1 0 P
13-Sep 0 1,2N,5,6 P N
13-Oct 0 6,N,N,8 N P
13-Nov 0 1,N,N,N N P
13-Dec 0 N,3,4,N N P
1El Nino Southern Oscillation
2Madden-Julian Oscillation
3Pacific North American Oscillation
4Arctic Oscillation
• El Nino – Southern Oscillation
• Madden – Julian Oscillation
• Pacific North American Oscillation
• Arctic Oscillation
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FUTURE (PRESENT) DIRECTIONS
• Emergency Measures Organization has Funding to Carry Out Floodplain Mapping of Every Yukon Community
• 2 Year Project• LiDAR Surveys 2014• Environment Yukon Developing Flood
Frequency Curves
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THANK YOU