2013 florida legislative overview florida advocacy days legislative briefing trinity united...
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2013 Florida Legislative Overview
FLORIDA ADVOCACY DAYS LEGISLATIVE BRIEFING
TRINITY UNITED METHODIST CHURCH
April 8, 2013
Presented by Ted Granger, President
United Way of Florida, Inc.
1
Money - Post War U.S. RecessionsPeak to Trough %
Length of Recession in
MonthsReal GDP
Industrial Production
Payroll Employment
2007 to 9-2009 23 -4.00% -17.88% -5.47%
2001 to 11-2001 8 -0.40% -5.80% -2.10%
1990 to 3-1991 8 -1.30% -4.30% -1.50%
1981 to 11-1982 16 -2.70% -10.30% -3.20%
1980 to 7-1980 6 -2.20% -6.90% -1.30%
1973 to 3-1975 16 -3.10% -12.80% -2.80%
1969 to 11-1970 11 0.00% -7.50% -1.40%
1960 to 2-1961 10 -1.60% -7.80% -2.30%
1957 to4-1958 8 -3.80% -12.70% -4.00%
1953 to 5-1954 10 -2.40% -9.10% -3.30%
1948 to 10-1949 11 -1.80% -7.70% -4.40%
Avg. for prev. recessions 10 -1.90% -8.50% -2.60%
22
Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions, August
3Source: Calculated RISK Finance & Economics, September 2012
3
Florida Economy
PopulationPopulation
44
Florida Economy - Population
Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, May 11, 20125 5
Florida Economy - Population
Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, June 20116 6
Florida Economy - Population
Avg. Ann. Pop. Grwth318,000
77
Florida Economy – Population Growth by Age Group
8Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012
8
Florida Economy
Economy Looking UpEconomy Looking Up
99
Home Sales Continue ImprovingExisting Single-Family Homes – 11/2011-2012
+24.4% US - +14.5% 8 months consecutive increase
+14.1% - Median Sales Prices $154,000
+10.6% - Average Sales Price $223,301
Condo Sales +18.3% +20.2% - Median Sales Prices
10Source: Florida Realtors, December 2012; January 2013 10
Home Sales
11Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 11
Tourism Rocks!
New Tourism Records 2012 Total Tourism Spending – Record Total State Sales Tax Revenues from
Tourism Number of Persons Employed
12Source: Visit Florida, December 2012
12
National Jobs Lost & RecoveredU.S. Recession
Job LossesRegained
Jobs
Low-Wage ($7.69 - $13.83 / $15,995 - $28,766)
21% 58%
Mid-Wage ($13.84 - $21.13 / $28,787 - $43,950)
60% 22%
High-Wage ($21.14 - $54.54 / $43,971 - $113,443)
19% 20%
13Source: National Employment Law Project, The Low-Wage Recovery and Growing Inequality, August 2012.
13
Florida Budget
Florida BudgetFlorida Budget
1414
General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) FY 2011-12 FY 2012-13
Total Funds Available 25,216.00 26,070.10
Total Estimated Expenditures
27,726.70 31,119.30
Ending Balance -2,510.70 -5,049.20
15Source: Legislative Budget Commission, September 2011
15
General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) FY 2013-
14*FY 2014-
15FY 2015-
16
Total Funds Available**
27,853.7 28,306.5 29,541.3
Total Estimated Expenditures
27,416.9 27,253.0 27,947.3
Ending Balance 436.8 53.5 594.0
16
•Updated December, 2012•All GR – recurring, nonrecurring, roll-over
Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Fall 2012 Report 16
No Budget Shortfall???
2013-2014 Budget: “Flat”
Flat is good!
Budget surplus: first in 5 years1717
Florida GR History
18Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 18
Florida GR Budget 2012-2013
Source: The Florida Legislature191
9
Florida GR Budget 2012-2013Program Area (Section of General
Appropriations Act) Dollars Percent
Education 12,689.5 51.2%
Human Services 7,673.1 31.0%
Judicial Branch 331.4 1.3%
Criminal Justice and Corrections 3,136.0 12.7%
Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Mgmt./ Transportation
225.6 0.9%
General Government 710.8 2.9%
Total 24,766.5 100.0%
Source: The Florida Legislature202
0
Florida Budget 2012-2013
Source: The Florida Legislature212
1
Florida Budget 2012-2013Program Area (Section of General Appropriations Act) Dollars Percent
Education 20,286.4 29.0%
Human Services 29,912.8 42.7%
Judicial Branch 446.2 0.6%
Criminal Justice and Corrections 4,191.2 6.0%
Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Mgmt./ Transportation 11,329.8 16.2%
General Government 3,870.2 5.5%
Total 70,036.7 100%
Source: The Florida Legislature222
2
Florida GR Revenue Sources
Source: FL Revenue Estimating Conf.; 2012 Florida Tax Handbook232
3
2013 Legislative Session Overview
Thanks!Thanks!
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