2013 industry trends
TRANSCRIPT
2013 INDUSTR
Y
TRENDS
MEETING
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RON MIKESH
STACEY
ANFINDSEN
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Orange and Chatham Market
Summary 2012Stacey P. Anfindsen
TARR Reportstimely, credible, market specific
2011 Migration
"1995""1996"
"1997""1998"
"1999""2000"
"2001""2002"
"2003""2004"
"2005""2006"
"2007""2008"
"2009""2010"
"2011"“2012”
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
12541
13594
16465
18676
19504
19151
19894
19396 23992 29758 34718
36409
34215
24924
22138
20674
19688
23855
Annual Closed Sales-All of TMLS
Orange County
11-Dec12-Jan
12-Feb12-Mar
12-Apr12-May
12-Jun12-Jul
12-Aug12-Sep
12-Oct12-Nov
12-Dec
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1259
2118
2617
3851 3833
3184
24862285
1906 1859 1976
1521 1389
Monthly Showings
Orange County
End of Quarter Inventory New Home ReSale0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
617
110
507
Inventory at Quarter End
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"
Orange County
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
24%
30%
40% 40%
48% 46%
38%
Percent of Inventory w/Price Drop
Orange County
11-Dec12-Jan
12-Feb12-Mar
12-Apr12-May
12-Jun12-Jul
12-Aug12-Sep
12-Oct12-Nov
12-Dec
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
45 41
6455
91
106 102
113
79
49
65
5145
Monthly Pending Sales
Orange County
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
293
245
173
227205 199
256
Fourth Quarter Pending Sales
Orange County
11-Dec12-Jan
12-Feb12-Mar
12-Apr12-May
12-Jun12-Jul
12-Aug12-Sep
12-Oct12-Nov
12-Dec
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
4636 40
6577
112
129119
89
6053 55
48
Monthly Closed Sales
Orange County
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
20001765 1754
12751146 1142 1128
1277
Annual Closed Sales
Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1177 1142
847752 775 745
838
Annual Closed Sales
Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District
Average Sales Price Median Sales Price$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$365,000
$315,000
Fourth Quarter Closing Price Metrics
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"
Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"$135
$140
$145
$150
$155
$160
$165
$170
$158
$164
$160
$157
$154
$149
$146
Fourth Quarter Median Sales Price/SF
Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District
0-149.9150-199.9
200-299.9300-399.9
400-499.9500-599.9
600-799.9800-999.9
1ml+Condo
TownhouseArea Total
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
6
34
3 3
54
9
1110
65
Months of Housing Supply
Orange County
"2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” "2012"75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
91%89%
87%86%
84%
87%
98%97% 97% 97%
95%96%
Sales to Original List Price Ratios
FLP<OLP FLP=OLP
Orange County
"2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” "2012"0
50
100
150
200
250
300
136 131 135158
248
205
4866
5064 72 80
Average Days on Market-LADOM
FLP<OLP FLP=OLP
Chatham County
End of Quarter Inventory New Home ReSale0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Inventory at Quarter End
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”
Chatham County
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200178
125
99
136121 121
164
Fourth Quarter Pending Sales
Chatham County
All Housing New Home ReSale0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000878
292
586
711
190
521
Annual Closed Sales
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”
Chatham County
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
6
9
12
1413
12
9
Months of Housing Supply
Chatham County
0-149.9150-199.9
200-299.9300-399.9
400-499.9500-599.9
600-799.9800-999.9
1ml+Condo
TownhouseArea Total
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
106 7 7
14 1520
15
63
18
59
Months of Housing Supply
"2000" "2001" "2002" "2003" "2004" "2005" "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" “2012”
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
FHFA House Price Index
Durham-Chapel Hill MSA
The Ugly• 7 of 11 price brackets in Chatham have an
oversupply of housing
• 63 month supply of 1ml+ housing in Chatham-down from 165 a year ago
• Detached housing at 600k+ in Hillsborough- 30 month+ supply
• 5 consecutive fourth quarter declines in the median sales price per square foot in CH-C’boro
The Bad• Orange average days on market increased to
142 versus 127 for 2011 closings
• The average days on market for closings in CH-C’boro increased to 150 from 135
• Both the average and median sales price for annual closings decreased in CH-C’boro
The Good• Orange unemployment rate lowest since 4/09,
employed workforce in 11/12 was the 3rd highest ever recorded.
• The number of price dropping sellers decreased 19% in Chatham and 25% in Orange
• Chatham annual closings up 21%, Orange annual closings up 13%
• 4th quarter median sales price and median ppf up in Chatham
The Future• Drop in months of housing supply should
stabilize house prices in some sections and could produce house price increases in other sections.
• Average year built of 2012 closed sales in CH-C’boro was 1986, average in Cary was 1998, average in South Durham was 1995……How will the older housing stock compete with alternatives in other parts of the Triangle?
PAM D
AVIS
AP
PR
AI S
ER
PAMELA DAVIS, DAVIS APPRAISAL SERVICES
MARKET UPDATE - ORANGE, DURHAM AND CHATHAM COUNTY AREASJ A N U A RY 2 0 1 3
ANNUAL RATES OF APPRECIATION - A LOOK IN 2007
NATIONAL STATISTICS (FROM ZILLOW) SHOWS AVERAGE NATIONWIDE DECLINE OF 24% FROM MAY ’07 TO OCT ‘11
WHAT’S HAPPENED TO REAL ESTATE VALUES IN OUR AREA SINCE THE PEAK OF THE MARKET IN 2007/2008 ?
Most have declined in value
Most condominiums and townhouses were hit harder than single family detached homes
Land values in Chapel Hill area do not seem to have changed much (less than 10%) but there are fewer sales and longer marketing time
Chatham County has an oversupply of land/lots and the prices have dropped quite a bit.
HANDOUT
Have as much fun as you can until someone makes you stop
MY APPROACH – DATA ANALYSIS
.
ORANGE COUNTY – CHAPEL HILL NEIGHBORHOODS (DETACHED SINGLE –FAMILY)
NeighborhoodSales/Year
07/08Sales in 2012 % Change in
Value
Northwoods 9.3 9 -6%
Webbwood 2.7 3 -8.6%
Chesley 3.3 3 -9%
Southern Village 25.3 31 -9.7%
Ironwoods 8.6 6 -10%
Stoneridge 5.3 9 -10%
Colony Woods 15.3 15 -12.6%
Meadowmont 28 14 -15.8%
Lake Hogan Farms 26 16 -18%
Westwood 4 5 -17.5%
DURHAM COUNTY NEIGHBORHOODS(DETACHED SINGLE –FAMILY)
NeighborhoodSales/Year
07/08Sales in 2012 % Change in
Value
Woodcroft 84 55 -7.6%
Parkwood 42.7 37 -8.4%
Grove Park 56 49 -13%
Southpoint Manor 15.3 9 -12.6%
CHATHAM COUNTY NEIGHBORHOODS(DETACHED SINGLE –FAMILY)
NeighborhoodSales/Year
07/08Sales in 2012 % Change in
Value
Polks Landing 8.6 6 -9.4%
Chapel Ridge 15.3 10 -8.3%
The Preserve 13.8 18 -13.4%
Fearrington 16.6 29 -9%
Governor’s Club 46 38 -18%
CONDOMINIUMS AND TOWNHOMES
NeighborhoodSales/Year
07/08Sales in
2012% Change in
ValueCHAPEL HILL AREA
Summerfield Crossing 6.6 8 -12%
Kirkwood 3 10.6 -14.5%
Canterbury 7.3 10 -17.5%
Southern Village 15.3 15 -18.3%
Village Green 4 7 -25%
Meadowmont 11.3 11 -30%
DURHAM AREA
Woodcroft 72.6 42 -9.5%
Dunbarton 7.3 7 -15.7%
Falconbridge 13.3 8 -11.7%
CHATHAM COUNTY
Fearrington 10 13 -10%
WHERE WILL VALUES GO FROM THIS POINT?
Stabilize? Increase? Decline further?
MARKET ADJUSTMENTS
Sq.Ft adjustment $40- $90/ SF
Decks $1,500 - $4,000
Garage (1) $4,000 - $8,000
Garage (2) $8,000 - $15,000
Garage (3) $15,000 - $22,000
Basements (unfin) add $10- $18/sf
Basement Finished $ 35- $70
Bath 2 versus 1 add $5,000
Bath additional over 2 add $2,500-$4,000
Bath (1/2) add $1,500 - $2,000
Depreciation
Suggest .5 – 1.5% per year (on cost approach)
Consider:
Adverse influences- Functional depreciation –
Adjust for and consider the impact of functional obsolescence such as a poor layout, extreme decorating, excessive costs for upgrades or specialty items
Consider external depreciation ie: high traffic road, power easements, steep driveways, poorly maintained nearby properties, close proximity to major highways (backs up to I-40)
Discount these properties about 3 -10% compared to other similar neighborhood properties without the negative influences
INFLUENCES ON LAND VALUE
Positive Negative
Nice view- lake, golf course Heavy traffic
Quiet roads Nearby large power lines
Well maintained nearby properties Airport flight paths
Nicely wooded (except large acreage)
Close to landfill, sewage plant, etc. (odors)
Very steep driveways or lots
Poorly maintained nearby properties
THANK YOU
VIC K
NIGHT
NO
RT
H C
AR
OL I N
A R
EA
L ES
T AT
E C
OM
MI S
SI O
N
NC Real Estate Commission
Vic Knight – Vice-Chair
The MAJORITY of Complaints
1. Misrepresentation 2. Trust Accounts
The NEW Trend of Complaints
1. Scams ($$)2. Money Laundering
($$)
NCREC Rule Changes (Pending)
(To be Effective 4/1/2013)
NEW RulesAmended RulesRepeal of Rules
NEW Rules:
NCAC 58A.0116 – Handling of Funds ($$)
Belonging to othersNCAC 58A.0117 – Accounting of Funds ($$)Belonging to othersNCAC 58A.0118 – Trust Monies ($$)
Belonging to “Property Owners
Assoc.”NCAC 58A.2201 – Define – BPO & CMANCAC 58A.2202 – Requirements for BPO/CMA
AMMENDED Rules:
NCAC 58A.0103 – Registration of Assumed Name NCAC 58A.0108 – Requires BPO Record KeepingNCAC 58A.0503 – Renewal Fees from $40 to $45
REPEALED Rules:
NCAC 58A.0107 – Lengthy Trust Account Rules
“Worth”, “Appraisal” or “Valuation”
“WAV”
Do NOT use:
“Valuation”, “Appraisal” or “Worth”-----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can ONLY Use:
“Probable Selling Price” (or) “Probable Leasing Price”
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 estimate0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2860
2573
2154
1969
2237
Total Licensed Per Year by Exam
* as of December 2012
avg=2358std.dev.=355
1335*
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