2013 real estate forecasts - sfr
DESCRIPTION
2013 Real Estate Forecasts - SFR. SFR1. Historic SFR Recession Recovery Through Building Permits. SFR2. Louisville MSA Job Growth Sectors. SFR3. Jefferson County SFR Home Sales Performance. SFR4. Jefferson County New SFR Home Sales Performance. SFR5. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2013 Real Estate Forecasts - SFR2013 Real Estate Forecasts - SFR
SFR1
Historic SFR Recession Recovery Through Building Permits
SFR2
-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%
-24 -12 0 12 24 36 48 60Per
cen
t C
han
ge
for
SF
R P
erm
its
fro
m
Rec
essi
on
Mid
Po
int
Months from Mid Point of Recession
Normalized Percent Change US Residential Building Permits Six Prior Recessions
Louisville MSA Job Growth Sectors
SFR3
Negative
Positive
Positive
Positive
Positive
Positive
Negative
Positive
Positive
Negative
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Manufacturing 88.0 80.3 75.2 72.4 70.7 80.3 80.3 75.6 69.8 63.7 60.1 67.5 66.5
Trade Transport & Utilities 138.7 132.5 127.7 126.8 121.6 136.3 142.6 144.5 137.4 130.8 126.8 136.2 141.1
Education & Health Service 59.3 64.9 67.4 71 71.9 75.7 77.6 79.3 80.3 83.2 84.6 86.1 88.1
Government 74.0 73.0 71.9 70.5 66.6 78.5 80.9 82.1 80.1 82.3 80.5 80.8 81.6
Financial Activities 36.4 36.8 37.3 37.7 37.5 39.4 41.9 43.3 43.5 42.4 41.2 40.7 41.4
Professional Business Service 68.8 66 64.5 63.7 65.6 67.3 74.8 75.9 74.1 72.3 73.9 81.1 83.4
Construction 30.7 31.2 29.9 29.6 30.1 36.3 33.2 34.6 30.4 28.3 28.5 24.4 24.3
Leisure & Hospitality 55.3 54 52.9 53.1 56.5 59.4 57.5 59 58.8 57.4 61 64.1 65.6
Other Services 25.7 29.3 29.9 30 29.8 29.1 28.3 28.6 27.4 25.5 24.1 25.2 25
Information 13.7 12.8 11.5 10.9 10.9 10.2 10.7 10.4 10.9 9.7 9.7 9.2 9.2
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
Em
plo
ymen
t X
100
0
.
Louisville (NAIC) Non-Agricultural All Employment Categories
Jefferson County SFR Home Sales Performance
SFR4
Jefferson County New SFR Home Sales Performance
SFR5
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12
Mon
ths
Inve
ntor
y at
Cur
rent
Rat
e
Avg
SP
to
LP
Jefferson County MLS New SFR Listing Prices vs. Sales Prices and Inventory Levels
Avg List $ Avg Sale $ Inventory Linear (Avg Sale $) Linear (Inventory)
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
$180,000
$190,000
$200,000
Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12
Mon
thly
Sal
es
Avg
SP
Jefferson County Monthly MLS New SFR Sales Prices and Number of Sales
Avg Sale $ Sales Linear (Avg Sale $) Linear (Sales)
Oldham County New and Existing SFR HomePerformance
SFR6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
$320,000
$340,000
$360,000
$380,000
$400,000
Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12
Mon
ths
Inve
ntor
y at
Cur
rent
Rat
e
Avg
SP
to
LP
Oldham County MLS New SFR Listing Prices vs. Sales Prices and Inventory Level
Avg List $ Avg Sale $ Inventory
Linear (Avg Sale $) Linear (Inventory) Linear (Inventory)
Bullitt County SFR HomeActivity
SFR7
> $200,000 Lot Sales and Inventory
SFR8
020406080
100120140160180200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
tsJefferson County >$200,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
$100,000 to $200,000 Lot Sales and Inventory
SFR9
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Jefferson County $100,000 To $200,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Oldham Cty $100,000 o $200,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Shelby Cty $100,000 To $200,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
$75,000 to $100,000 Sales and Inventory
SFR10
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Jefferson $75,000 To $100,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Oldham Cty. $75,000 To $100,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
$55,000 to $75,000 Sales and Inventory
SFR11
05
10152025303540
2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Bullitt Cty $55,000 To $75,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Jefferson County $55,000 To $75,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Oldham Cty. $55,000 To $75,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
020406080
100120140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Shelby Cty $55,000 To $75,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
$35,000 to $55,000 Sales and Inventory
SFR12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Bullitt Cty $35,000 To $55,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Jefferson County $35,000 To $55,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Shelby Cty $35,000 To $55,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
050
100150200250300350400450
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Oldham Cty $35,000 To $55,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
$25,000 to $35,000 Sales and Inventory
SFR13
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Jefferson County $25,000 To $35,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Bullitt Cty $25,000 To $35,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Shelby Cty $25,000 To $35,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
Less Than $25,000 Sales and Inventory
SFR14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Bullitt Cty <$25,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lo
ts
Shelby Cty <$25,000 Lots
ALL AVAIL ALL SOLD
Kentucky/ Louisville MSA SFR Building Permit History
SFR15
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Spencer 48 361 210 106 57 87 37 44
Henry 89 89 76 57 69 30 23 25 0 24
Meade 0 0 0 19 19 143 142 133 113 80 104 108 64
Nelson 457 457 493 482 409 446 311 335 136 168 121 24 100
Oldham 611 634 634 760 684 674 490 481 225 145 101 102 140
Bullitt 689 670 767 903 911 710 539 558 293 263 253 393 254
Shelby 422 340 471 496 544 512 367 427 152 109 94 68 108
Jefferson 3561 3187 3281 3887 3579 2398 1938 2708 1872 803 920 951 1855
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Nu
mb
er o
f P
erm
its
Kentucky Louisville MSA Residential Reported Annual Building Permits
Indiana/Louisville MSA Building Permit History
SFR16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Washington 48 48 84 68 34 50 20 15 25 26Harrison 208 164 126 137 67 78 63 43Clark 303 482 304 186 266 847 670 421 356 322 240 251 394Floyd 425 373 341 432 343 299 294 146 178 104 100 99 127
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Nu
mb
er o
f P
rem
its
Indiana Louisville MSA Counties Building Permits
Jefferson County Patio Homes
SFR17
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
So
ld
Jefferson Cty. Patio Home Sold Market
Sold Under $165K Sold $165K - $350K Sold Over $350K
Jefferson County Patio Homes
SFR18
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Per
cen
t S
old
to
Av
aila
ble
Sal
es &
Av
aila
ble
Patio Homes Over $350,000
Sold Over $350K Sold Sold/Available
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Per
cen
t S
old
to
Av
aila
ble
Sal
es &
Av
aila
ble
Patio Homes Over $350,000
Sold Over $350K Sold Sold/Available
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Per
cen
t S
old
to
Av
aila
ble
Sal
es &
Ava
ilab
le
Sold $165K - $350K Sold Sold/Available
Patio Homes $165,000 -$350,000
Oldham County Patio Homes
SFR19
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012P
erce
nt
So
ld t
o A
vail
able
Sal
es &
Ava
ilab
le
Available Sold Sold/Available
Patio Homes Over $350,000
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Per
cen
t S
old
to
Ava
ilab
le
Sal
es
& A
vail
ab
le
Available Sold Sold/Available
Patio Homes Under $165,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Per
cen
t S
old
to
Ava
ilab
le
Sal
es &
Ava
ilab
le
Available Sold Sold/Available
Patio Homes $165,000 - $350,000
Bullitt County Patio Homes
SFR20
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Per
cen
t S
old
to
Ava
ilab
le
Sal
es &
Ava
ilab
leSold Available Sold/Available
Bullitt Patio Homes Under $165,000
Local and National Lending Institutions23 lenders made 80% of the loans over $1M Dollars in 2012 but a Number have Troubled Loans
Financial Institution
Reported % Non-
Preforming Loans
(BF12/7/12)Asset
RankingTotal
Mortgages$ Mortgages >
1 million
Total Mortgages > 1 million (6//167) Financial Institution
2011 Asset
RankingTotal
Mortgages
2011 $ Mortgages > 1
million
Total Mortgages > 1 million
PNC Bank 1 75 $121,573,609 23 PNC Bank 1 67 $78,871,131 26Stockyards Bank & Trust Company 1.52% 5 182 $37,126,969 20 Stockyards Bank & Trust Company 6 137 $26,780,847 16Commonwealth Bank and Trust Company 4.41% 10 83 $36,975,094 15 Commonwealth Bank and Trust Company 10 52 $10,969,410 7BB&T 6 62 $29,906,700 14 BB&T 5 57 $11,214,523 7Hills Financial Group 14 $56,000,000 14 Hills Financial Group 5 $36,000,000 5Your Community Bank 3.14% 11 96 $24,895,071 13 Your Community Bank 11 76 $17,741,458 8First Capital Bank of Kentucky 1.84% 14 85 $19,089,243 9 First Capital Bank of Kentucky 15 60 $10,530,000 7First Federal Savings Bank 9 16 $24,719,904 8 First Federal Savings Bank 9 23 $14,198,457 5J.P. Morgan Chase Bank 2 6 $16,033,728 7 J.P. Morgan Chase Bank 2 17 $216,319,416 10Republic Bank & Trust Co. 0.66% 4 109 $9,313,108 7 Republic Bank & Trust Co. 4 182 $14,259,224 9First Savings Bank FSB 15 79 $17,487,500 6 First Savings Bank FSB 14 74 $17,040,835 9Eclipse Bank 4.11% 28 21 $8,916,344 5 Eclipse Bank 29 14 $2,270,000 1Capital Access Corp. 12 $5,604,000 3 Capital Access Corp. 7 $3,825,000 3Century Bank of Kentucky, Inc. 18 $5,499,600 3New Washington State Bank 1.12% 20 26 $3,907,000 3Regions Bank 22 4 $6,655,014 3American Business Lending 2 $3,042,000 2Farm Credit Services of Mid-America FLCA 14 $8,190,000 2 Farm Credit Services of Mid-America FLCA 2 $1,189,581 1Kentucky Telco Federal Credit Union 4 $2,600,000 2King Southern Bank 0.67% 26 26 $4,704,000 2 King Southern Bank 25 20 $2,265,000 1Old National Bank 29 6 $15,200,000 2 Old National Bank 28 6 $1,500,000 1P.B.I. Bank, Inc. 9.47% 7 93 $3,692,778 2 P.B.I. Bank, Inc. 7 111 $139,350,748 16Peoples Bank of Bullitt County 13.70% 21 7 $3,408,500 2 Peoples Bank of Bullitt County 23 3 $1,730,000 1The Bank of Kentucky 5 $5,000,000 2United States of America 3 $3,400,000 2Wells Fargo Bank NA 2 $54,620,500 2American Founders Bank 30 24 $2,400,000 1 American Founders Bank 30 32 $6,560,000 3Citigroup Global Markets Realty Corp. 1 $5,650,000 1Citizens Union Bank 6.63% 12 69 $1,358,177 1 Citizens Union Bank 12 54 $5,550,991 4Community Trust Bank NA 23 $1,449,212 1First Citizens Bank 39 54 $2,107,894 1 First Citizens Bank 38 26 $1,300,000 1First Financial Bank 5 $4,537,620 1 First Financial Bank 6 $1,500,000 1First Harrison Bank 13 40 $1,000,000 1 First Harrison Bank 13 30 $4,305,000 4First Tennessee Bank, NA 1 $9,840,000 1 Lancaster Pollard Mortgage Co. 1 $9,162,600 1Gus Goldsmith 7 $1,590,000 1Huntington National Bank 1 $12,000,000 1Kansas City Life Insurance Co. 1 $3,850,000 1Kentucky Housing Corp. 4 $1,000,000 1 Kentucky Housing Corp. 3 $1,700,000 1L&N Federal Credit Union 14 $4,000,000 1 L&N Federal Credit Union 18 $2,058,584 2Nationwide Life Insurance Co. 1 $3,900,000 1Suntrust Bank 1 $10,200,000 1 Suntrust Bank 1 $10,834,648TGJE II, LLC 1 $4,000,000 1The Bank-Oldham County 27 27 $1,264,934 1The Prudential Insurance Co. of America 2 $113,326,000 1Town & Country Bank & Trust Co. 8.61% 17 4 $1,000,000 1 Town & Country Bank & Trust Co. 16 5 $3,267,825 2UBS Real Estate Securities, Inc. 1 $10,000,000 1 UBS Real Estate Securities, Inc. 1 $39,500,000 1US Bank N/A 8 2 $4,000,000 1Subtotal of loans >$1M 1,579 $726,034,499 194 Subtotal of loans >$1M 1,205 $727,899,323 159Subtotal of loans >$1M Miscellaneous 19 $32,718,229 18 Subtotal of loans >$1M Miscellaneous 22 $34,815,243 26Subtotal of loans <$1M 117 Subtotal of loans <$1M 294GRAND TOTAL 1,715 $758,752,728 212 GRAND TOTAL 1,521 $762,714,566 185
SFR 21
Viewpoint Survey Results
Sample = 100 respondents
Will real estate capital from the top 3 traditional sources be more or less available in 2013 than it was in 2012?
More Available Less Available Same
Banks 69 5 23
Conduits 77 7 13
Insurance Companies 55 9 33
SFR22