MODELING THE UTTAKAHRAND FLOOD- TUSNAMI IN HIMALAYA MOUNTAIN-DISASTER IN UTTHARAKHAND

Mountain lake reservoir modelingGeorges Radjou CEO MBA DUPEBHGeorges.radjou@yahoo.com

(Business Innovation Research Development - BIRD)

Risk concept

Source(s)

Issue (s)

Impact (s)

AS I HAVE ASSUMED WITH THE TEAM (UNESCO, INDIAN EXPERTS AND EMMA -EXPERT IN PREDICTIVE MODELING- THE ROOT CAUSES (SOURCES OF RISKS) OF THE DISASTER IS TEMPORARY WATER ACCUMALATION IN ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIR FOLLOWED BY

THE RESERVOIR WALL RUPTURES HAVE IMPACTED (PRIMARILY AND SECUNDARY IMPACTS) ON THE COMMUNITY LIFE, LIVELIHOODS AND PROPERTIES, AS WELL AS THE WELL-BEING ;

THE RESERVOIR RUPTURES (WHICH WAS THE RISK ISSUE) WHEN THE RESERVOIR MATERIALS (RESERVOIR WATER + SEDIMENTS + RESERVOIR WALLS (THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES OR DEBRIS AND SEDIMENTS...) ? SOIL SURFACES AND SUB-SOIL I.E SOIL UNDERGROUND AND THE SHALLOW LAYERD OF AQUIFERS).

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I think the most appropriate and adapted technology model to mimic / reproduce/model wiith the assumptions recoded on the Flood tsunami experience from conversation and narrative with / of risk masters (UNESCO hydrology experts, Emma hydraulic prediction expert, India experts on the tsunamin disaster) and the information given by the media the Himalaya water, is according to me, and the nature and the scale of reservoir lake in mountain ruptures that created that let to the disaster without possibilities for rescuers to save lives, assets, livlihoods and propertie IT IS A WASTE WATER PUMPING MACHINE

Water out

Water in

SOURCE OF RISKS

Water reservoir accumulated in the Himalaya Mts

TEMPORARY LAKES WITH HEAVY RAINS, THE MOUNTAIN MATERIALS COMPOSING THE RESERVOIR REACHED A CRITICAL RUPTURE POINT AND THE CAUSES OF LANDSLIDES AND THE TSUNAMI IN MOUNTAINS THAT FLOW IN THE VALLEYS

Fig. 1: PROJECT GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE AND BUSINESS MODEL

BUSINESS MODEL ANALOGY TO A WASTE WATER PUMP MACHINE

MANUAL HAND

Pump Body

Waste water pumped in storage

Business caseModeling

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Q -water flows (M³ /second)

Surface water

reservoirBottom

H

Without sediment and debris the water is clean, then the pump can treat a higher volume of water (H)Water outPump performance (W) linked to H → W = W(H)

Fig 1a : Uncertainty on Knowledge of the nature of soil structures, and sediments accumulatioon could create a landslideThe waste water pump modeling is interesting, because if the stakeholder knew that temporary lakes during the monsoon could create a flood in mountains, they could have prevented it by using pumps to drain the water formation (H) in the artificial lakes, so that the reservoir materials can resist to the water tenses on the reservoir wallls (soil and mountain slopes)-reservoir bottom.Solution to people displacment waspumping water or preventing the water accumulation by avoiding water stock reaching a critical levels (H), also the pump performance limit.

With sediment the pump performance is reduced as the (power of the pump is concserve)- H- T = eExcess of water, which is stagnant i.e. and if not drained is about to reach a critical mass leading to tenses over the reservoir materials and risk of ruptures, leading to a flood in the valley- impacting on peoples securities and safeties

T

Fig. 1: Uncertainty on the roleof sediments- sediment volumeInfluencing the water elevation and the reservoir peak of discharge or the reservoir rupture, if no drainage action is providing either by preventing sediment accumulation or maintaining the reservoir drainage to avoid the criticalsWith reservoir ruptures sourcesOf flood in the valleys and tsunami in mountains with landslides

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Sediments

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What are the risks created by the sediments (in case of a large land surface is covered -it is always more often the case in flood plain in valleys are the slopes of the mountains are sharper than on flat surfaces-

10%Flood

Good- Flood farming Houshold living area

h

Valley slopes

Flat land slopes

(Modeling the Flood Plains)

Flood plain maximal

10%

90%

90%

Flat land with a small slope

Valley land with a high slope

Fig 3 : uncertainty on valley slopes

Flood division at WMO said, if a land is 10% covered with sediment, it is good for flood farmingBut, if over 40% of the country land surface is covered by the flood waters during the inundation, it will be a disasterIn montain valleys slopes are rarely small, therefore expect a minor flood for a flat land to be a giant flood or tsunami

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END (part 1)

Georges RADJOUBUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT27 Ter Bld Saint Martin, 75 003 PARISTel. 01 44 59 64 90

DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT AND ANALYSISModel used is mimic tha valley (Peoples, Systems and organizations)

The rivers(water river basin where the floods occurrred)

Mainstreeam going to the lower lewer part of the valley (water out)

Individual Vallay river drainage

Z

Total size of the valley water basin where the flood the monsoon

ePhysical elements

UrbanismRoads, infrastrucutreindustrialization

Dry feet zone

Zo > Z= eFlow in (Monsoon water in from the rain)

Fig. 4: Uncertainty on Dry feet zones i.e. urbanism, roads and infrastructures, aged technologies, Over population (Pligrims), pollutions and lack of maintenance of the valley and lack of land planning and management, risk mapping...

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Sediments and the reservoir are creating temporary water buffers

Fig. 5 : RecommendationStakeholders should moniitor quality of valleys and invest in the mainteance of valleys to avoid flood in mountains. The critical mass for the infrastructures are also paramountin planning a disaster resilience program.

NAME OF CITY

SEDIMENT MONITORING

RESERVOIR FILL START

DATE OF RUPTURE

MAINTENANE

City X

City Y

City Z

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