2013 world energy issues monitor report feb2013
TRANSCRIPT
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For sustainable energy.
2013 World EnergyIssues Monitor
World Energy Council
For sustainable energy.
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Officers of the World Energy Council
Pierre GadonneixChair
Abubakar SamboVice Chair, Africa
Liu, TienanVice Chair, Asia
Arup Roy ChoudhuryVice Chair, Asia Pacific/South Asia
Younghoon David Kim
Acting Chair, 2013 Congress, Daegu
Leonhard BirnbaumVice Chair, Europe
Jos Antonio Vargas LlerasVice Chair, Latin America/Caribbean
Taha M. ZatariVice Chair, Special Responsibility for Middle East &Gulf States
Kevin MeyersVice Chair, North America
Marie-Jos Nadeau
Chair, Communications & Outreach Committee
Graham Ward, CBEChair, Finance
Jos da Costa Carvalho NetoChair, Programme Committee
Brian StathamChair, Studies Committee
Christoph FreiSecretary General
2013 World Energy Issues Monitor
World Energy Council
Copyright 2013 World Energy Council
All rights reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or
reproduced as long as the following citation is included on each
copy or transmission: Used by permission of the World Energy
Council, London, www.worldenergy.org
Published 2013 by:
World Energy Council
Regency House, 14 Warwick StreetLondon W1B 5LT, United Kingdom
ISBN: 978 0 946121 20 5
2013 WorldEnergy IssuesMonitor
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Contents 1
1. Introduction 2
2. Assessing the Global Energy Agenda 5Analysis by Christoph Frei, PhD, Secretary General,World Energy Council
3. Assessing the Regional Energy Agenda - 9
Analysis ofWECs Six Regions for Issues Maps
3.1 Africas Critical Agenda 93.2 Asias Critical Agenda 113.3 Europes Critical Agenda 133.4 Latin America and the Caribbeans Critical Agenda 153.4 Middle East and North Africas Critical Agenda 173.6 North Americas Critical Agenda 19
4. Assessing Countries Energy Agenda - 22Analysis of six selected countries
4.1 Colombias Critical Agenda 224.2 Germanys Critical Agenda 244.3 Indias Critical Agenda 254.4 Indonesias Critical Agenda 264.5 South Africas Critical Agenda 274.6 Switzerlands Critical Agenda 29
5. Assessing the Global Agenda - 31Feedback from our Future Energy Leaders (FELs)
Project Participation 33
Contents
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Decision makers face a multitude of choices
and possible actions, some of which will
succeed through sheer market forces while
others require coordination between market
signals and policy frameworks. The
breakthrough of shale gas in the US
exemplifies the market forces driver and the
slow progress of energy efficiency measures, in
a context where energy prices are subsidised,
illustrates the potential role of policy drivers, or
what can happen when the signals are notstrong enough. We can only advance a
meaningful dialogue among the Global Energy
Leaders Community if we focus on a set of
clearly identified priorities. WECs World
Energy Issues Monitor provides a snapshot on
what keeps Energy Ministers, CEOs and
leading experts in over 90 countries awake at
night and therefore defines the World Energy
Agenda and its evolution over time.
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The arrows in g. 3 illustrate the evolution of
selected issues and issues clusters over threeyears. Regionalised issues mapping in g. 2
show the difference in regional perceptions withthe global perception in the centre.
Figure 1
Global Map
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
impact
uncertainty
weak
signals
climate
framework
large scale
accidents
Global
recession
capital
markets
commodity
pricesenergy
prices
currency
uncertainty
energy water
nexus
talent
energy
povertyenergy affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil Russia
EU cohesion
Middle East
dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers
regional
interconnection
business
cycle
innovative
regulationenergy
subsidies
sustainable
cities energyefficiency
ccs
renewable
energiesbiofuels smartgrids
electric
vehicles
electric
storage
nuclear
large scale
hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
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Australia, on the way to become one of the
worlds largest LNG exporters, has re-
directed its interest from North America to
Asia and Canadas infrastructure
companies have also started watching out
for Asian customers. Price volatility is also
about solar, where module costs have
collapsed since 2008 from over 4.5 $/Wp
to as low as 0.6 $/Wp. This is largely
driven by low-cost production in China but
has been accentuated by the fact that2012 demand has not kept up with
expectations and absorbed less than half
of the global manufacturing capacity of
about 100 GWp.
Where Energy Leaders have
changed their views most
radically
The issue with the most dynamic changeover the past years is carbon capture,
utilisation and storage (CCS/CCUS) which
is almost flying off the map: without a
formal price for CO2 emission avoidance
this technology is at risk of simply being
seen as adding cost and bringing down
energy efficiency. This must be of highest
concern as we lock ourselves into a high
CO2 emission future for the next 40 to 50
years with every new coal and othercarbon emitting plant that is built. Only a
combination of CCS/CCUS and, possibly,
a partial substitution of coal input with solid
biomass can mitigate CO2 emissions of
existing plants.
The issue that is most clearly identified as
a game changer, with its solid trend
towards the action space, is
unconventionals. This is about
unconventional oil (shale oil, tight oil,
beyond Canadian oil sands or Venezuelan
heavy or extra-heavy oil) as much as it isabout the still-hot topic of shale gas. The
technology revolution is continuing and
while further progress is needed to
address the energy-water nexus and the
costs associated with mitigating
greenhouse gas emissions, production
volumes continue to increase. This has
given rise to North American energy supply
independence becoming a possibility
within less than a decade. Such supplyindependence is however put into
perspective as crude markets, and
therefore prices are global and US prices
will continue to depend on international
developments. Meanwhile, we do not see
other regions replicate the US success at
the same speed for a number of reasons
including geological, legal, logistical,
financial and issues related to the water
nexus. However, projects are being
developed around the world which will
eventually change the global supply map.
supply
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Figure 2
Global Map geographical-tracking
need for
action
criticaluncertainties
weaksignals
climate framework
energy water nexus
issues tracking color:
Asia
Africa
EuropeLatAm
MENANAm
OECD
NonOECD
G20
climate framework
Asia
Africa
Europe
LatAm
MENA
NAm
OECD
NonOECDG20
energy water nexus
impact
uncertainty
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Figure 3
Global Map time-tracking
need foraction
criticaluncertainties
weak
signals
energy
efficiency
ccs
renewableenergies
nuclear
unconventionals
issues tracking color:ccs
energy efficiency
nuclear
renewable energiesunconventionals
2011
20092010
2011
2010
2009
2011
20092010
2011
20092010
2011
impact
uncertaint
y
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Figure 4
Regional Map Africa
need foraction
critical
uncertainties
weaksignals
climate
framework
large scale
accidents
global recession
capital
markets
commodity prices
energy
prices
currency
uncertainty
energy water
nexus
talent
energy
povertyenergy
affordability
corruption
China
India
Brazil
Russia
EU cohesion
Middle East
dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade
barriers regionalinterconnection
business
cycle
innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies sustainablecities
energy
efficiency
ccsrenewable
energies
biofuels
smart
grids
electric
vehicles
electric
storagenuclear
large scale
hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertainty
World Energy Issues MonitorAfrica, 2012
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Figure 5
Regional Map Asia
need foraction
weaksignals
criticaluncertainties
climate
framework
large scale
accidents
globalrecession
capital
markets
Commodity
prices
energy
pricescurrency
uncertainty
energy water
nexus
talentenergy
poverty
energy
affordability
corruption
China
India
Brazil
Russia EU Cohesion
Middle East
dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade
barriersregional
interconnection
Business
cycle
innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies
Sustainable
citiesenergy
efficiency
ccs
renewable
energiesbiofuels
smart grids
electric vehicles
electric
storage
nuclear
large scale
hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
,
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertainty
World Energy Issues MonitorAsia, 2012
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India has mandated the early retirement
of inefficient coal-fired power plant in
their National Action Plan on Climate
Change, while in China, according to
U.S. EIA statistics & analysis, the
government's 12th Five-Year Plan calls
for a production ceiling of 4.4 billion
short tons 3.9 billion metric tons and
capacity ceiling of 4.1 billion metric tons
by 2015 in an attempt to control the
production growth of coal.
In this part of the world, issues that have
seen the highest changes are electric
storage and smart grids which have
gained ground as people may expect
that technology to solve electricity
shortage of some states. This is
followed by currency uncertainty and
global recession, both of which have
been quite affected by the Europeaneconomic crises. CCS, on the contrary,
has continued to lose its ground and as
a result, its importance on the overall
issues map.
Energy subsidies and energy efficiency
are issues that are viewed by politicians
and energy leaders in the region to
require action. Some countries have
experienced rapid electricity demand
growth under their distorted energy pricestructures where the electricity tariff has
been kept low, below its production cost,
and therefore does not properly reflect
the cost of all energy resources for
electricity. This is basically due to
government regulation. Even worse, the
incentive for enhancing energy
efficiency of the high energy intensive
industries does not work well under such
electricity price regulation schemes, with
subsidised and hence cheap electricity
prices, as it creates disincentives for
investment. To overcome this dilemma,governments in the region should build
up a cost-reflective energy price policy
to attract voluntary energy saving from
consumers which in turn could lead to a
reduction of imports of primary energy
sources. In addition to energy efficiency,
the two issues requiring action are smart
grids and sustainable cities models as
they may deal with increasing demand
for electricity and shortage of electricitysupply issues more effectively.
While not strongly represented on the
issue map for its actions, energy poverty
in the South Asia and Pacific region
needs to be dealt with most
immediately.
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Figure 6
Regional Map Europe
need foraction
critical
uncertainties
weak
signals
climateframework
large scale
accidents
global
recession
capital markets
commodity
prices
energy
prices
currency
uncertainty
energy water
nexustalent
energypoverty
energy
affordability
corruption
China IndiaBrazil
Russia
EU Cohesion
Middle East
dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade
barriers
regional
interconnection
Business
cycle
innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies
sustainable
cities
energy
efficiency
ccs
renewable
energiesbiofuels
smart grids
electric
vehicles
electric
storagenuclear
large
scale
hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
urope,
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertainty
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One of the highest change issues is
unconventionals i.e. the use of and the
generation of electric energy from
unconventional energy sources, such as
shale oil and shale gas. While the shale
gas development has been much
contested in many European states, low
gas prices have continued in the US. If
this is the case, the economic impact of
the unconventionals could be felt in two
ways: Firstly, as a pressure on the gasprices in the European market, and
consequently it would also add pressure
on the existing long-term contracts with
price indices that do not reflect changes
in market prices for natural gas. Secondly,
due to the relatively cheaper gas of the
US, some large gas-consuming
companies are considering building their
new industrial sites in the US, leading to
lower demand for natural gas in Europe.
Nuclear is another issue that has changedsignificantly, which has lost importance,
although many European countries have
taken nuclear as part of the solution for
climate change equation. A declining
economic outlook for Europe, however,
has also slowed down the progress of
developing new nuclear projects. With
shale gas becoming more available in the
US, the coal exports to Europe have
increased significantly from 2010 to 2011.
The US continues to become a global coal
supplier, especially to Europe.
According to leading energy experts and
policy makers, the following issues require
actions to be taken. First, regarding
renewables, some renewable energy
producers are in economic trouble
because of the economic downturn and
retroactive cuts of the European promotion
schemes such as feed-in-tariffs. These
schemes should be more aligned with
each other and with the internal European
market. Second, as far as Russia isconcerned, it would be necessary to
establish price-indexed formulas for
natural gas imports without compromising
the objectives of long-term gas contracts,
i.e. to find a balance between competitive
gas prices and secure delivery/supply-
relations. Third, with regard to China, as it
has become an enormous energy
consumer (which affects European energy
markets and prices), Europe must get
ready for it by reducing the fossil fueldemand in the long term, this may be
encouraged by a strong price signal for
CO2.
(*1) Directive 2012/27/EU on energy efficiency,
amending Directives 2009/125/EC and
2010/30/EU and repealing Directives 2004/8/EC
and 2006/32/EC
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Figure 7
Regional Map Latin America
need foraction
critical
uncertainties
impact
weaksignals
climate
framework
large scale
accidents
global recession
capital markets
commodity
pricesenergy
prices
currency
uncertainty energy water nexus
talent
energypoverty
energy
affordability
corruption
China
India
BrazilRussia
EU
Cohesion
Middle East
dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade
barriers
regional
interconnection
Business
cycle
innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies
sustainable
citiesenergy
efficiency
ccs
renewable energies
biofuels
smart gridselectric
vehicles
electric storagenuclear
large scale
hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertain
ty
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crude oil, may become another critical
uncertain issue as it would be affected
by struggling global economy or
China/India economy which may not
going as fast as previous years.
As an issue on the energy policy
agenda, climate framework does not
seem to have such a high impact as it
has on the global agenda or in other
regions or as of in previous years,though it still remains in a high
uncertainties area on the issues map.
High change issues are renewables,
CCS and electric vehicles. Renewables
and CCS have moved down to a lower
impact area on the issues map. In
contrast, large scale hydro moves up
straight to the high impact, uncertain
area, receiving much more attention
than renewables. In terms of price
competitiveness, hydro would be far
stronger than photovoltaic/solar or wind.
The electric vehicles become an issue
with far less impact or uncertainty
attached to it.
Therefore, while still in the uncertainty
area on the issues map, large scale
hydro may be one of the most important
issues that require immediate action tobe taken as it might be a major source
of electric energy for countries in the
LAC region. Problems often associated
with the construction of new large scale
hydro power, such as social issues,
environment issues, technologies and
capital market situations need to be
solved altogether. Accordingly,
innovative regulation and regional
interconnection need action as they are
related to this issue of investment in and
the construction of new large scale
hydro power
Though energy poverty may look less
important as an issue in this years issue
map, the importance of this issue may
be still felt as it might require more
action than can be seen on the map.
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Figure 8
Regional Map MENA
need for
action
criticaluncertainties
weak
signals
climate framework
large scale
accidents
global
recession
capital
marketscommodity
prices
energy
prices
currency
uncertainty
energy water
nexus
talent
energy
poverty
energy
affordability
corruption
China
IndiaBrazil
Russia
EU
cohesion
Middle East
dynamics
US
policy
terrorism
trade barriers regionalinterconnection
Business
cycle
Innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies
Sustainable
cities
energy
efficiency
ccsrenewable
energies
biofuels
smart
grids electricvehicleselectricstorage
nuclear
large
scale
hydro
unconventionalshydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertain
ty
World Energy Issues MonitorMENA, 2012
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hydrocarbons available for export. While
the issue of CCS is becoming less
prominent on the issues map. GCC
member states are now implement the
regions first Carbon Capture and
Storage projects, such as UAE testing
the enhanced oil recovery performance
which may add more value to CCS. As
far as unconventionals are concerned,
regional oil and gas producers see its
reserves as the way forward. Ultra-sourgas in very tight reservoirs hitherto
considered non-commercial is now
being developed to supply growing
markets.
The region has seen the importance of
renewables grow, such as solar to make
up for domestic oil consumption growth.
While countries are highly dependent on
oil/gas exports for their economicgrowth, energy efficiency should be
another issue to be dealt with to cope
with local demand for energy. Ensuring
electricity supply for both air conditioning
and desalination purposes is a priority.
The region also needs investment to
cope with the energy poverty or access
issues. The region could be a real front
runner, as we have seen in the Masdar
Project in Abu Dhabi, UAE which seeks
to deliver the concept of a green city.
Similar growth of renewables may also
be observed if they could successfully
develop DESERTC for example. The
benefit could be to further strengthen
ties with Europe in terms of economy,
energy security, technology and mutual
goal of decarbonisation.
DESERTEC
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Figure 9
Regional Map North America
need foraction
critical
uncertainties
weaksignals
climate
framework
large
scale
accidents
global
recession
capital
markets
Commodity
prices
energy
prices
currency
uncertainty
energy
water
nexustalent
Energy
poverty
energy affordability
corruption
China IndiaBrazil
Russia
EU
Cohesion
Middle Eastdynamics
US policyterrorism
trade barriers
regional
interconnection
Business
cycle
Innovative
regulation
energysubsidies
sustainable
cities
energyefficiency
ccs
renewable
energies
biofuels
smart grids
electric
vehicles
electric storage
nuclear
largescale
hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertaint
y
World Energy Issues MonitorNorth America, 2012
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mandates for GHG reductions are also a
critical uncertainty with some impact
across the region where cross border
enterprise in wind power pertains.
As far as Nuclear, it appears as a more
critical uncertainty in North America as
compared to the global level. This is likely
to be because North America has the
largest number of nuclear plant (U.S. over
100) and they are aging. Even with lifeextension granted for 20 more years,
most existing plants will be retired by
2050 when the U.S. power system is
expected to be decarbonized. Questions
therefore arise if these facilities can be
replaced. The current and projected future
price of natural gas calls into question the
economic viability of new nuclear and if
the country will pay a price premium for
zero CO2 emission power and fordiversity of supply.
Canadas nuclear industry remains
uncertain, with aging infrastructure, some
closures and slow decision making on
refurbishment, let alone on the creation of
new facilities.
Access to and diversification of markets
for Canadas energy products is a
continuing uncertainty. Renewablesmarkets have a large domestic element
but cross border activity, particularly with
the United States presents challenges.
Again, as illustration, the U.S. wind power
production tax credit and its renewal will
influence the development of wind power
in Canada. The tax credit represents an
incentive to some of the Canadian wind
power industry that will turn upon renewal.
Larger development of the domestic
market for renewables, broadly speaking,
rests upon the increase and continued
existence of subsidies.
Regarding oil and gas, for both
conventional and nonconventional,
Canadas primary market the United
States is shifting with its own capacity on
the increase. International markets
outside of the continent present
opportunity. However, the ability for
Canada to export its oil and gas product
outside of North America is constrainedthrough insufficient infrastructure.
In North America unconventional oil and
gas are a rising issue, which is more
predominant than anywhere else in the
world given that its prospects look much
more successful. However, questions
arise over the environmental regulatory
treatment of hydraulic fracturing and this
issue might in turn be linked to the issue
of the energy-water nexus. Thistechnology is essential to tap into
unconventional resources. Hence, if
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banned (as in the case of parts of New
York state) its future production levels are
threatened. It should be noted that
decades of experience indicate that
fracturing is safe and water issues can be
properly addressed if industry best
practices are followed.
Additionally, CCS, is seen as both
uncertain and impactful, given that it is
critical to continue the use of fossil fuels ina carbon constrained world and because
North America has by far the largest
number of CCS demonstration plants: 8
industrial scale units in the U.S. and 2
industrial scale units in Canada will
become operational by 2020. And since 6
of those units are intended for enhanced
oil recovery CCS becomes more
highlighted in the context of utilizing
CCUS technology (with utilization addingvalue to CCS by providing a revenue
stream to CCS plants). However, a more
progressive roadmap or actions will be
required to enable the CCS/CCUS
technology to become established, rather
than remaining in the demonstration
phase.
In Mexico the large fossil fuels and
electricity subsidies are an important
economic issue with a high degree ofuncertainty to reduce or eliminate them
due to the political implications.
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4 Assessing CountriesCritical Energy Agenda -Analysis of five selectedcountries for Issues Maps
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4.1 Colombias Critical AgendaEnergy subsidies and high energy
prices are critical uncertainty issues asthey are both affecting social equity,
although energy subsidies could be
effective and efficient when applied in
the right way.
Smart grid is also quite a critical
uncertainty issues as it lacks regulation
for proper return on investment or
financial support. Energy efficiency
may be an important factor in
influencing smart energy consumptionand might help to achieve overall
sustainability.
In addition, large scale hydro needs
action as it is an uncertainty issue.
Though Colombia has potential to
develop this resource, only a small
fraction of the overall potential
resources has been developed so far.
In order to develop these sources
further, it will be necessary to reconcile
with regulation as the dam puts impact
on society, animals and environment
by flooding of farmland and forests.
Figure 10
National Map Colombia
need for
action
criticaluncertainties
weaksignals
climate
frameworklarge scale
accidents
globalrecession
capital
markets
commodity
pricesenergy prices
currency
uncertainty
energy
water
nexus
talent
energy poverty
energy
affordability
corruption
China
India
Brazil
Russia
EU
cohesion
middle east
dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade
barriers
regional
interconnectionBusiness
cycle
Innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies
sustainable
cities
energy
efficiency
ccsrenewable
energies
biofuels
smart
grids
electric
vehicles
electric
storage
nuclear
large scale
hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertain
ty
World Energy Issues MonitorColombia, 2012
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Figure 11
National Map Germany
need for
action
critical
uncertainties
weak
signals
Climate
framework
large scale
accidents
global
recession
capital
markets
commodity
prices
energyprices
currency
uncertainty
energy
water
nexus
talent
energy
poverty
energy
affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU
cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade
barriers regionalinterconnectionBusinesscycle
Innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies
sustainable cities
energy
efficiency
ccs
renewable
energies
biofuelssmart
grids
electric
vehicles
electric
storage
nuclear
large
scale
hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertainty
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Figure 12
National Map India
need foraction
criticaluncertainties
weaksignals
climate
framework
large scale
accidentsglobal
recession
capital
markets
commodity
prices
energy
pricescurrency
uncertaintyenergy water nexus
talent
energy
povertyenergy
affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
Russia
EU
cohesion
Middle East
dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriersregional
interconnection
Business
cycle
innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies
sustainable
citiesenergyefficiency
ccs
renewable
energies
biofuels
smart
grids
electric
vehicles
electric
storage
nuclear
large
scale
hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertain
ty
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Figure 13
National Map Indonesia
need foraction
critical
uncertainties
weaksignals
climate
frameworklarge scale accidents
global
recession
capital
markets
commodity
pricesenergy
prices
currency
uncertainty
energy
water
nexus
talent
energy
povertyenergy
affordability
corruptionChina
India
Brazil
RussiaEU
cohesion
Middle East
dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade
barriers
regional
interconnection
business
cycle
innovativeregulation
energy
subsidies
sustainable
cities
energy
efficiencyccs
renewable
energies
biofuels
smart
grids
electric
vehicles
electric
storage
nuclear
large scale hydrounconventionals
hydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertain
ty
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Figure 14
National Map South Africa
need foraction
critical
uncertainties
weaksignals
climate
framework
large scale
accidentsglobalrecession
capital
markets
commodity
prices
energy
prices
currency
uncertainty
energy
water
nexus
talent
energy
poverty
energy
affordabilitycorruption
China
India
Brazil
Russia
EU
cohesion
Middle East
dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade barriers
regional
interconnection Businesscycle
Innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies
sustainable
cities
energy
efficiency
ccs
renewable
energiesbiofuels
smart
grids
electric
vehicles
electric
storagenuclear
large scale
hydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertain
ty
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In action areas of the issues map, the
energy-water nexus is addressed as it
is very much related to RSAs energy
supply to achieve energy equity and
energy security while at the same time
RSA is already struggling to maintain
security of water supply. This is also
probably why biofuels are a low priority
because their stress on water supply
means they may never be a significant
part of the RSA energy mix.Other issues in the action areas are
renewables and China and India. In
particular, the government in RSA is
expected to facilitate the process of
introducing wind, solar and CSP,
otherwise it would threaten the
necessary financial arrangement to
materialize.
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Figure 15
National Map Switzerland
need for
action
weaksignals
criticaluncertainties
climate
framework
large scale
accidentsglobal
recession
capital markets
commodity
prices
energy
pricescurrency
uncertainty
energy
water
nexus
talent
energy
poverty
energy
affordability
corruption
China India
Brazil
RussiaEU
cohesion
Middle East dynamics
US policy
terrorismtrade barriers
regionalinterconnection
business
cycle
innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies
sustainable
citiesenergy
efficiency
ccs
renewable
energies
biofuels
smart
grids
electric
vehicles
electric
storagenuclear
large scale
hydro
unconventionalshydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertaint
y
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vision of the Energy Strategy 2050,are considered as a need for action.Renewable energies together withenergy subsidies remain listedunder uncertainties, whereas the needfor action for installing smart gridsseems to be accepted today. Thereare only weak signals concerningregional interconnection. This israther surprising, as regionalinterconnection is a condition for
embedding electricity from renewablesources into the supply system and asthe negotiations between Switzerlandand the European Union on anagreement for the electricity sector arepending.
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The climate framework and mitigating the
negative impact of climate change are among
the most critical uncertainties for the Future
Energy Leader (FEL) community. This is
unsurprising given the insolvency of on-going
debates around a new Kyoto agreement and
the lack of collective commitment fromcountries to address and tackle climate
change issues. Future Energy Leaders pay
much attention to the development of
unconventional energy resources,
renewables, and electric storage technologies.
The development of these innovative
technologies can be expensive and time
consuming however; so there is some doubt
as to whether they will ever replace
conventional resources altogether and meetgrowing energy demands of the future. Future
Energy Leaders place importance on global
macroeconomic factors, the rise of energy
prices and commodity prices that directly
impact development of the energy industry.
The FEL perspective shares a number of
parallels with that of the Global Energy
Leader. Both communities consider climate
framework to be a fundamental globaluncertainty. Fluctuating energy prices and the
global recession are other key instabilities that
jeopardise development of the energy
sector and feature in both maps. High
growth rates in China and India have
increased the demand for energy in the
region which will significantly impact the
global energy industry. The advent of
unconventional resources such as shale oil& shale gas highlights the need for future
investment in energy efficient technologies.
Future Energy Leaders identify
unconventional, renewables and energy
storage technologies as critical issues and
should therefore be understood as key
drivers for the future.
The Future Energy Leaders outlook
suggests that immediate investment intoenergy efficient and energy saving
technologies is necessary. Recognising
and acknowledging such technologies as
energy sources of the future will enable
global populations to use energy effectively
and provide consumers with a reliable,
future energy supply at an affordable rate.
5 Assessing the GlobalAgenda - Feedback fromour Future Energy Leaders(FELs)
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Figure 16
Global Map Future Energy Leaders
need foraction
criticaluncertainties
weaksignals
climate
framework
large scale
accidents
global
recession
capital
markets
commodity
prices
energy
prices
currency
uncertainty
energy
water nexus
talent
energypoverty
energy
affordability
corruptionChina
IndiaBrazil
Russia
EU
cohesion
Middle East
dynamics
US policy
terrorism
trade
barriers regionalinterconnection
business
cycle
innovative
regulation
energy
subsidies
sustainable
cities
energyefficiency
ccs
renewable
energies
biofuels
smart grids
electric
vehicles
electric
storage
nuclear
large scalehydro
unconventionals
hydrogen
economy
macroeconomic
geopolitics& regional
businessenvironment
vision &technology
impact
uncertain
ty
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Thanks also to the many energy leaders and
policymakers who kindly gave their insights
and expertise on an anonymous basis.
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BrazilBulgariaCameroonCanadaChadChinaColombiaCongo (DemocraticRepublic)Cte d'IvoireCroatiaCyprusCzech Republic
DenmarkEgypt (Arab Republic)EstoniaEthiopiaFinlandFranceGabonGermanyGhanaGreeceHong Kong, ChinaHungary
IcelandIndiaIndonesiaIran (Islamic Republic)IrelandIsraelItaly
JapanJordanKazakhstanKenyaKorea (Republic)KuwaitLatviaLebanonLibya/GSPLAJLithuaniaLuxembourgMacedonia (Republic)Mexico
MonacoMoroccoNamibiaNepalNetherlandsNew ZealandNigerNigeriaPakistanParaguay
PeruPhilippinesPolandPortugalQatarRomaniaRussian Federation
Saudi ArabiaSenegalSerbiaSlovakiaSloveniaSouth AfricaSpainSri LankaSwazilandSwedenSwitzerlandSyria (Arab Republic)Taiwan, China
TanzaniaThailandTrinidad & TobagoTunisiaTurkeyUkraineUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomUnited StatesUruguayZimbabwe
Member committees of the World Energy Council
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affordable, stable and environmentally sensitive energy system for the greatest benefit of all. Formed in 1923,
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