20130114book.pdf
TRANSCRIPT
2
• The only pure prime
office developer
• One of the earliest and
most profitable,
market participants
• Full range of
development, leasing,
property management
and property investment
capabilities
China’s Largest Prime Office Developer
(4)
(4)
(5)
(7)
(7)
(7)
(6)
(6)
(6)
(3)
Development
2012E: 3.1 million sqm
2015E: 5.2 million sqm
(4) Property Management
2012E: 2.3 million sqm
2015E: 4.4 million sqm
Investment
2012E: 190,000 sqm
2015E: 1.7 million sqm
(4)
3
• Beijing and Shanghai are China’s only true “global cities”
• By far, the deepest and largest office markets in China
• Substantially higher rents and lower vacancies than other major cities in China
Comparative Rents in Major Cities in China(1)
Hong Kong Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou Tianjin Chengdu Chongqing
Prime Office rents
(Rmb/sqm/month) 746 313 242 189 148 139 125 94
Vacancy 3% 3% 8% 12% 11% 22% 34% 20%
Market Size (million sqm) 6.7 9.1 5.3 2.6 2.8 1.0 1.1 _
Exclusive Focus on Beijing and Shanghai
Note:
1. Savills Office Research, 3Q2012
4
471 508676
802
1,119 1,153
1,543
1,739
2,307
2,5302,715
3,135
3,962
4,596
5,212
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Previous Completion New Completion
‘000 sqm
• By 2015, we plan to have built 5.2 million square meters of commercial developments in
Beijing and Shanghai
Extensive Development Experience
5
Large Leasing and Management Portfolio
• SOHO currently manages over 2 million square meters of SOHO developed prime commercial
space
• Largest prime office property manager in Beijing
• Fast growing landlord of prime office in Shanghai, and largest land owner on the Bund
‘000 sqm
2011 Before 2009 2009 2010 2012 2015 2014 2013
6
BUND 8-1
BUND SOHO Bund SOHO
Land cost RMB30,600/sqm
GFA 189,000 sqm
Acquisition Time October 12, 2010
The Bund 8-1
Land cost RMB33,200/sqm
GFA 423,000 sqm
Acquisition Time December 29, 2011
Largest Land Owner on the Bund
Artist image
8
SOHO’S “BUILD-TO-SELL” TRACK RECORD
Project Name All-in cost
(Rmb/sqm)
ASP
(Rmb/sqm)
Unlevered
IRR Gross Margin
Jianwai SOHO 9,397 17,525 287% 46%
SOHO Shangdu 12,289 24,050 51% 49%
Chaowai SOHO 12,108 30,997 73% 61%
Guanghualu SOHO 16,134 38,147 125% 58%
Sanlitun SOHO 18,216 48,208 46% 62%
ZhongGuanCun SOHO 23,138 39,309 24% 41%
SOHO Nexus Centre 27,992 45,482 59% 38%
The Exchange-SOHO 34,358 65,000 64% 47%
Danling SOHO 35,786 48,482 61% 26%
Galaxy SOHO 25,700 71,244 47% 64%
“Build-to-Sell” Model: Fast Growth of Equity
Note: All-in cost means COGS, including land cost, construction cost, capitalized interest and others related to development process;
ASP refers to average selling price for the entire project;
9
“Build-to-Hold” Model: Recurring Income & Long Term Value
• SOHO developments have consistently produced rent growth and asset
appreciation
• In the past, buyers of SOHO developments captured this value -- now, SOHO will
• SOHO has pivoted to “Build-to-Hold” model to capture this upside
If SOHO Held
Project Name ASP (Rmb/sqm)
Current
Property Value
(Rmb/sqm)
Holding
Period
(Years)
Current Rental
Yield on ASP
Buyers' Est.
Levered IRR
Current
Rental Yield
on All-in Cost Capital Gain
Jianwai SOHO 17,525 55,000 10 17% 20% 33% 485%
SOHO Shangdu 24,050 59,000 8 9% 21% 19% 380%
Chaowai SOHO 30,997 61,800 8 9% 16% 24% 410%
Guanghualu SOHO 38,147 56,800 6 6% 12% 15% 252%
Sanlitun SOHO 48,208 65,400 5 6% 12% 16% 259%
ZhongGuanCun SOHO 39,309 60,000 5 7% 19% 13% 159%
SOHO Nexus Centre 45,482 80,000 3 10% 66% 15% 186%
The Exchange-SOHO 65,000 75,000 3 6% 17% 11% 118%
Danling SOHO 48,482 60,000 2 7% 60% 10% 68%
Note: All-in cost means COGS, including land cost, construction cost, capitalized interest and others related to development process;
ASP refers to average selling price for the entire project;
Co
mp
lete
d In
vestm
en
t P
rop
ert
ies
Note:
1. Completion for investment properties refer to cumulative leasable GFA completed
Transformation from Developer to Landlord
(1)
Pro
pert
y
Po
rtfo
lio
by T
yp
e
For Development100%
Tiananmen
South (Qianmen)
SOHO Century
Plaza
Galaxy SOHO Tiananmen
South
Sky SOHO Guanghualu
SOHOII
Hongkou
SOHO
Bund SOHO Wangjing
SOHO II
SOHO
Hailun Plaza
Bund 8-1
SOHO Tianshan
Plaza
2012 2013 2014 2015
• Transition from “build-to-sell” to “build-to-hold” captures unique market opportunity
• After 2015, our property portfolio will consist of 100% investment properties
2007 2012 After 2015
10
For Investment
100%
For Investment
22%
For Development
78%
One of the Largest “Pure Play” Office Landlords in Asia
11
Note:
1. Of which 1.8mm sqm are completed office properties for investment, and 697,898 sqm are currently under development
2. Of which 1.2mm sqm are completed office properties for investment, and 808,257 sqm are currently under development
3. Attributable GFA excluding Qianmen Project, which is a solely retail project. Includes ground-floor retail of office properties
4. Includes only office gross floor area intended to be held for investment purposes
5. Only cities with major investment properties listed
• SOHO China is one of the largest “pure-play” office landlords in Asia with exclusive focus on
China’s deepest office markets, Beijing and Shanghai upon completion of current pipeline
Office as % of
GFA (4) 23% 17% 70% 28% 41% 6% 8% 100% 100% 69% 47% 65% 72% 41%
Cities in
China(5)
Chengdu,
Chongqing,
Suzhou,
Wuxi
Beijing,
Guangzhou,
Shanghai
Beijing
Shanghai Beijing
Beijing,
Chengdu,
Guangzhou,
Shanghai
Beijing,
Chengdu,
Ningbo,
Shanghai
Beijing,
Shanghai NA NA NA NA Guangzhou NA NA
2,035 1,910
1,219 1,160
939
497 446
279 246 224 195 146 77 68
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Sun HungKai
Wharf SOHO SwireProp
HK Land Franshion CapitaLand CCT KeppelREIT
SuntecREIT
Hysan YuexiuREIT
ChampionREIT
MCT
Office GFA of Major Asian Landlords '000 sqm
SOHO(3) Wharf(2) Sun Hung
Kai(1)
Market Cap
(US$ mm)(1) 4,090 42,260 25,030 21,780 17,750 17,790 12,723 8,500 6,832 5,440 5,440 2,910
Listing Exchange SEHK SEHK SEHK SEHK SGX SEHK SGX SGX SGX SEHK SEHK SEHK
Total Assets
(US$ mm) 9,712 60,278 43,097 29,955 30,371 20,619 30,370 11,781 7,847 8,288 9,916 12,402
LTM Dividend
Yield 4.2% 2.9% 2.1% 0.9% 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 0.7% 1.8% 2.3% 0.0% 3.0%
Trading Prem /
(Disc) to RNAV(2) (40.6)% (32.3)% (32.8)% (18.2)% (13.1)% (33.7)% (30.6)% (20.5)% (33.5)%(2) (29.4)% (29.0)% (53.6)%
Gross Debt /
Equity 91.6% 20.6% 33.2% 19.2% 15.7% 24.2% 94.9% 59.9% 40.1% 11.6% 99.4% 106.9%
Net Debt / Equity 20.1% 16.4% 24.8% 16.7% 12.5% 7.3% 59.0% 26.8% 30.7% 11.5% 60.3% 97.2%
FY2011 Interest
Coverage Ratio(3) 2.0 x 16.1 x 6.3 x 6.6 x 10.8 x 20.5 x 1.5 x 15.5 x 0.2 x 8.9 x 1.9 x 1.7 x
Corporate Credit
Rating
(Moody’s / S&P)
Ba1 / BB+ A1 / A+ - / - A2 / A- A3 / A- - / - - / - - / - - / - Baa1 /
BBB
Baa3 /
BB+ - / -
Landbank %
investment
properties (4)
Benchmarking SOHO Against Other Asian Blue Chips
12
• SOHO is the largest commercial landlord and developer in Beijing and Shanghai on par with
other major Asian property blue chip players
• SOHO is trading at higher discount to RNAV, but has the highest dividend yield and lower net
gearing than most comparables
Note:
1. Market data as of 14 January 2013
2. Based on Goldman Sachs Research estimate as at November. For CapitaMalls Asia, RNAV is based on JPMorgan Research estimate
3. Calculated as EBITDA divided by cash interest expense. FY2011 used as capitalized interest is not disclosed in many companies’ interim reports
4. Includes investment properties under development
Investment properties Development properties
32.8%
67.2% 70.9%
29.1%
68.4%
31.6%
55.7%
44.3%
75.2%
24.8%
42.1% 57.9%
94.8%
5.2%
46.5% 53.5% 100.0% 100.0%
80.9%
19.1%
59.1% 40.9%
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Largest Prime Office Portfolio
• SOHO will own 1.7 million square meters of prime office space in Shanghai and Beijing when
current developments are completed
Beijing Attributable Total GFA ('000 sqm)
Commune by the Great Wall 31
Tiananmen South 55
Galaxy SOHO & Chaoyangmen 45
Guanghualu SOHO II 134
SOHO Peaks (Tower 3) 180
Subtotal 444
Shanghai Attributable Total GFA ('000 sqm)
SOHO Century Plaza 59
SOHO Fuxing Plaza 137
Sky SOHO 350
Hongkou SOHO 97
Bund SOHO 118
SOHO Hailun Plaza 152
Bund 8-1 211
SOHO Tianshan Plaza 172
Subtotal 1,296
Total GFA 1,741
16
Recurring Rental Income
• Largest prime office portfolio – 1.7 million square meters by 2015
• Current prime office rents in Beijing and Shanghai c.RMB10/sqm/day
• SOHO targets RMB4 billion annual gross rental income within 5 years
0.2
0.7
1.2
1.7
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
By 2012 2013 2014 2015
mm
sq
m
17
RMB16 Billion Contract Sales Unbooked
RMB Bn
Contract Sales
13.7
23.8
10.9 9.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2009 2010 2011 2012
18
Faster Rental Growth
SOHO Office Rents vs. Market Average Prime Rents
RMB/sqm/month RMB/sqm/month
Beijing Shanghai
Source: Beijing and Shanghai market average data, Savills 3Q2012 report
126
205
135
188
240
273
218
313
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
ZhongGuanCun
SOHO
SOHO Nexus
Centre
Sanlitun SOHO Beijing Market
Average
4Q2010 3Q2012
210 203
315
242
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
The Exchange-SOHO Shanghai Market Average
4Q2010 3Q2012
19
High Office Occupancy Rate
%
Note: Company data for office properties in Beijing with more than three years of operations. Occupancy rate as of December 2012
96.3 95.4 94.2 96.0 92.0 93.1
0
25
50
75
100
Jianwai SOHO SOHO Shangdu Chaowai SOHO Guanghualu
SOHO
Sanlitun SOHO Chaoyangmen
SOHO
20
Proven Leasing Record
Case 1. SOHO Century Plaza – High Rental Rates
SOHO Century
Plaza
Shanghai
Prime Office
Rents(1)
Rent
(RMB/sqm/month) 270 242
Case 2. The Exchange-SOHO – Higher Occupancy
Occupancy %
Occupancy rate
increased from
28% to 82% in six
months under
SOHO’s operation
Brand name and
leasing power
drive higher rental
rates
(1) Savills 3Q2012 report
21
Pipeline Projected Initial Yield On Cost >10%
• All-in cost: RMB32,000/sqm
• Current market rent: RMB10/sqm/day
• Gross yield on cost: 11%
• Year-on-year rental growth estimate: 10%
22
Stronger Demand Eats Up Inventory – Beijing Prime Office
Source: Savills
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mil
lio
n s
qm
Market Stock GFA Occupied GFA
23
Overwhelming Demand Pushed Down Vacancy - Beijing Prime Office
Source: Savills
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
'00
0 s
qm
New Supply Take-up Vacancy rate
24
Robust Demand Absorbing Inventory – Shanghai Prime Office
Source: Savills
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mil
lio
n s
qm
Market Stock GFA Occupied GFA
25
Demand Exceeding New Supply – Shanghai Prime Office
Source: Savills
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
'00
0 s
qm
New Supply Take-up Occupancy rate
30
2012 Contract sales RMB9.5bn
2012 Contract Sales As at 31 December 2012
Amount
(RMB
million)
GFA sold
(sq.m.)
Average
price
(RMB/sq.m.)
Total
sellable
area
(sq.m.)
Aggregate Aggregate
Projects Type
percentage
of sellable
area sold
contract
sales
amount
(RMB
million)
SOHO Peaks Tower
1&2 Office/Retail 8,086 153,349 52,196 283,204 83% 12,766
SOHO Zhongshan
Plaza Office/Retail 1,382 31,746 42,463 112,864 57% 3,039
Total 9,468
31
Strong Balance Sheet
• Total cash > RMB22bn
• Total debt ≈ RMB23bn
• Net gearing to be significantly lower (<5%)
• Cash enriched by strong collection of mortgage
loans for the sales of Galaxy SOHO
• Raised a high yield Bond: USD1bn in November
› USD600mm 5.75%
› USD400mm 7.125%
32
Lowest Geared
Net gearing ratio
Source: 2012 Interim Reports, except SOHO China on estimation as at the end of 2012
33
Lowest Funding Cost
11.1
8.5 8.4 8.1 7.7
7.1 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.4
5.7
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Greentown CountryGarden
Vanke Agile Evergrande Shimao R&F Sino Ocean Shui On Longfor SOHO
Note: Total interest (including capitalized interest) / total debt balance as at 31 December 2011 from companies’ Annual Reports
2011 Effective Interest Rate (%)
*
34
Diversified Funding Sources
Leverage existing buyers / investors
Passive financial investors
Cashable portfolio of assets
Bank loans: RMB4.7 billion
Undrawn bank facilities: c.RMB1.9 billion
Onshore Debt Markets Other Sources
October 2007: listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (410.HK) raising HKD12.9 billion
July 2009: HKD2.8 billion, 3.75%, 5-year convertible bond
Ranks pari passu with the proposed offering
Equity/ Hybrid Markets Syndicated loans:
June 2012: 3-year USD626mm H/LIBOR+4.25%
June 2011: 3-year USD605mm H/LIBOR+3.55%
● High yield bond:
November 2012: USD 600mm 5.75%
USD 400mm 7.125%
Offshore Debt Markets
Note: As of December 31, 2012
35
SOHO Plans To Maintain A High Dividend Policy
• Average dividend yield of 5.6% for the past three years
0.12 0.14
0.12 0.10 0.10
0.20
0.14 0.11
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
DP
S R
MB
Interim DPS Final DPS
36
SOHO Is Greatly Undervalued
• SOHO is trading at 58% discount to its NAV
• Low share price only reflects the land cost of HK$5.40 per share
(RMB20,200/sqm)
• Recent commercial land auction in Beijing at RMB38,000/sqm
Note: Closing price at 11th January 2012
6.28 5.40
15.00
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Share Price Per share land cost ofinvestment properties
NAV per share
HK
$/S
ha
re
37
Appendix: SOHO Pipeline Analysis
• Pipeline Completion Schedule
• Development Costs of Pipeline Investment Projects
• Lettable GFA of Pipeline Investment Projects
38
Pipeline Completion Schedule
Project Project Total Project Completion (Saleable/lettable GFA)*
(sqm) GFA 2012 2013 2014 2015
For Long-Term Investment
Tiananmen South(Qianmen) 54,700 17,844 (36,847 already completed)
SOHO Century Plaza 59,000 42,954
Galaxy SOHO 330,000 33,307
SOHO Fuxing Plaza 137,000 86,620
Sky SOHO 350,000 234,003
Guanghualu SOHO II 167,000 93,890
Bund SOHO 189,000 72,927
SOHO Peaks** Tower 3 180,000 134,261
Hongkou SOHO 97,000 66,833
Bund 8-1 211,400 145,486
SOHO Hailun Plaza 152,000 116,132
SOHO Tianshan Plaza 172,000 101,673
For Sale
Galaxy SOHO 330,000 224,693
SOHO Peaks Tower 1&2 340,000 268,523
SOHO Jing'an Plaza 81,000 57,137
Total 318,798 589,146 367,911 420,428
* Saleable/lettable GFA is excluding car parks
** Originally named as Wangjing SOHO
39
Development Cost Of SOHO Pipeline
* Saleable/lettable GFA is excluding car parks
Projects under Construction
(RMB/sqm) Land Construction, capitalized
interest and other costs All-in-cost
SOHO Fuxing Plaza 27,700 15,900 43,600
Sky SOHO 7,500 10,000 17,500
Guanghualu SOHO II 11,500 10,500 22,000
Bund SOHO 30,600 16,300 46,900
Hongkou SOHO 22,700 15,300 38,000
Bund 8-1 33,200 15,500 48,700
SOHO Hailun Plaza 21,300 14,200 35,500
Galaxy SOHO 15,000 10,700 25,700
SOHO Tianshan Plaza 20,500 13,500 34,000
SOHO Peaks* Tower 3 10,230 9,070 19,300
Completed Buildings (RMB/sqm) All-in-cost
SOHO Century Plaza 45,000
The Exchange-SOHO 34,000
• Average land cost per lettable GFA RMB20,200
• Average all-in cost per lettable GFA RMB32,000
* Originally named as Wangjing SOHO
40
Lettable GFA Of SOHO Pipeline
Project Type
By2012 2013 2014 2015
Commune by the Great Wall Hotel 30,586
The Exchange-SOHO Retail 3,842
Qianmen I Retail 22,763
Qianmen II Retail 31,928
SOHO Century Plaza Office 42,522
SOHO Century Plaza Retail 432
Chaoyangmen SOHO I&II Retail 11,519
Galaxy SOHO Office 12,082
Galaxy SOHO Retail 21,225
SOHO Fuxing Plaza Office 53,782
SOHO Fuxing Plaza Retail 32,838
Sky SOHO Office 194,394
Sky SOHO Retail 39,609
Gauanghualu SOHO II Office 63,056
Gauanghualu SOHO II Retail 30,834
SOHO Peaks Tower 3 Office 117,165
SOHO Peaks Tower 3 Retail 17,096
Hongkou SOHO Office 60,194
Hongkou SOHO Retail 6,639
Bund SOHO Office 50,664
Bund SOHO Retail 22,263
Bund 8-1 Land Office 97,345
Bund 8-1 Land Retail 48,141
SOHO Hailun Plaza Office 102,132
SOHO Hailun Plaza Retail 14,000
SOHO Tianshan Plaza Office 52,911
SOHO Tianshan Plaza Retail 29,762
SOHO Tianshan Plaza Hotel 19,000
Total 176,899 320,623 367,911 363,291
Accumulated total 176,899 497,522 865,433 1,228,724
Lettable GFA Completion (sqm)
41
China’s Most Influential Brand
• Chairman Pan Shiyi: 14.1 million followers on
Weibo, a.k.a. Chinese Twitter
• CEO Zhang Xin: 5.1 million followers on Weibo,
a.k.a. Chinese Twitter
As of 11 January 2013