20130116_2013goldinvestorsguide

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by Jeff Clark, Editor of

BIG GOLD

2013 GOLDI N V E S T O R S G U I D E


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2013 GOLD Investors Guide

WELCOME TO CASEY RESEARCH!

Were glad to send you our brand new2013 Gold Investors Guide, an updated version of our

wildly popular Three Best Ways to Invest in Goldspecial report.

Were absolutely condent that if you follow its advice, youll be in position to make spectacular

gains in gold and gold stocks in the months and years ahead.

Now, we dont recommend investing in gold because were gold bugs. We do it because gold is the

safest way to protect yourself from failing currencies and out-of-control governments... and be-

cause its the best way to prot from fundamental factors working in your favor.

SO WHY SHOULD YOU INVEST IN GOLD?

Have you ever stopped to ask yourself why, if the economy is as strong as the government claims it is, theyre

still printing money in such large quantities and piling on the debt in ever-increasing amounts? This is not

the sign of a healthy scal and monetary system. And its not just the US. Governments the world over are

debasing their currencies by lowering interest rates, and many have resorted to quantitative easing, a fancy

term that means nothing more than printing money. In the US, the number of dollars in circulation has

tripled since 2008, while worldwide, M2 one measure of money supply is up in all G7 countries.

Tomorrows ination is already baked in the cake.

And while the cry to cut government spending gets louder, the decit and debt continue to grow.

The ofcial decit for 2012 was estimated at $1.1 trillion, although in reality it was much higher

when you consider our unfunded liabilities. Total US debt at the end of 2012 was $16.4 trillion.

How has gold responded to all of this? In the four years between January 2009 and January 2013,

gold was up 90%, while the S&P 500 rose 53%.

Here are the closing prices for gold for the end of the each year since 2000, along with the

percentage increase:

2000 $271.50 2005 $513.00 (17.8% gain) 2010 $1,421.60 (30.7% gain)

2001 $276.50 (1.8% gain) 2006 $632.00 (23.2% gain) 2011 $1,531.00 (7.7% gain)

2002 $347.50 (25.6% gain) 2007 $833.75 (31.9% gain) 2012 $1,657.50 (8.3% gain)

2003 $416.25 (19.9% gain) 2008 $869.75 (4.3% gain)

2004 $435.60 (4.6% gain) 2009 $1,087.50 (25.0% gain)


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The bottom line is that since the end of 2000, gold has risen 510%. Heres what this spectacular

gain looks like on a graph:

Over the same period, the S&P lost 4.7%.

Even sharp corrections like the 20% drop in October 2008 havent altered the trend of this

massive bull market.

How have gold and silver performed since the nancial crisis hit?


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Gold and Silver vs. Other Investment Classes Since 2009

As you can see, despite a number of corrections, the precious-metals sector has been the place to

be. Gold rose for a twelfth consecutive year. It and silver have led all investment classes since the

nancial crisis hit in late 2008. Meanwhile, many CNBC types and government ofcials continue

to claim that gold is in a bubble or outright declare it a poor investment. Amazing.

IS IT TOO LATE TO INVEST IN GOLD?Absolutely not.

While gold has had a good run, our research shows that whats ahead will be, quite frankly, spec-

tacular. By positioning yourself now, youll be in ahead of the crowd and will prot tremendously

as greater masses rush in.


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Think about this: The vefold increase weve seen in the gold price has happened during a period

of no price ination to speak of no effects of the atrocious increase in the money supply. Imagine

what will happen to the price of gold when serious ination kicks in, as it certainly will. Investors

will stampede to gold as never before.

Here, specically, is why we think its not too late:

1. Gold is an infation hedge. As the Fed continues cranking up the printing presses, ooding the

economy with paper money, and as national debt skyrockets at unprecedented rates, there is no

question that sooner or later (we think sooner), ination will come roaring back with a vengeance.

Theres no doubt that the current administration and Federal Reserve are committed to printing

enough money so that the dollar will continue to be devalued. After all, its the only legitimate

way for them to ever be able to repay their debts. And gold is the #1 way to protect yourself fromthe inationary results of their actions.

2. Gold is a dollar hedge. Mounting pressure on the dollar from negative real interest rates and

debasement from all the government bailouts, debts, and money printing are all conspiring to

push the dollar lower (you can see that it moved about 3% lower in 2012).

Gold has moved higher against the US dollar every year since 2000, and its done even better

against euros, Swiss francs, Canadian dollars, and British pounds. Thats a solid, unbroken,

global bull market.

Think about this: Unlike paper money, which has lost 96% of its purchasing power since the in-

ception of the Federal Reserve in 1913, golds purchasing power has essentially stayed the same.

Imagine that in 1930 when the average monthly wage was $165 and gold sold for $21 an

ounce you had hidden a one-ounce coin under your mattress. And lets say your neighbor

stashed the same amount of money away $21 in one-dollar bills.

Back then, that coin would have bought you a good quality suit. Fast forward to today: that one ounce

of gold will stillbuy you a nice suit. And those 21 one-dollar bills will barely afford you a nice tie.

And consider this: In 1900, $1 bought 14 loaves of bread; but in 2012 it would only get you 16

slices from one 20-slice loaf.

It may sound radical, but at some point it might well be cheaper to use your depreciated paper

money as toilet paper than to buy actual bathroom tissue with it.


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When not if high ination occurs, gold will take the proverbial moon shot that weve been

talking about for years.

3. Gold is money. Throughout recorded history, gold has been an accepted means of exchange

worldwide. It fullls the four criteria for money: Its divisible, portable, durable, and limited in

supply (in the era of Ben Helicopter Bernanke, the fourth criterion technically disqualies the

US dollar as money).

You can see that golds purchasing power has been much stronger than the US dollars. And even

though its price is subject to uctuation, gold has never been worth zero.

And if times get truly desperate such as the Greater Depression Doug Casey has been predicting

for years a gold coin will hold much greater value than a pocketful of dollar bills.


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Were not the only ones who think so. George Soros now owns a whopping 1.32 million shares of

GLD. Jim Rogers has publicly stated that he is selling Federal debt and purchasing more gold

and silver. And Michael Pento (chief economist at Delta Global Advisors) doubled the rms gold

holdings last year, stating, Anything the government cannot replicate by decree, I want to own.

There are a growing number of voices expressing the same sentiment.

Some of you may be asking how gold will fare if we have a serious depression. The answer lies in

the Great Depression itself.

From the summer of 1929 to the summer of 1935, the Dow lost 66.7% (from 381.17 to 127.27).

Meanwhile, the two biggest mining companies in the world at the time Homestake Mining and

Dome Mines gained 519% and 558%, respectively (the price of gold itself was xed at $35/oz.).

The bottom line is, even in a depression, gold will more than hold its own in terms of purchasing power.

WHEN WILL GOLD TAKE OFF?

Because the Fed continues to pour money into the economy, its difcult to say for certain when

gold will make a dramatic move. The historical record indicates that a surge in money growth

doesnt impact economic activity until 9-18 months later. Add another 12 months or so for it to

show up in consumer price ination.

In other words, the Federal Reserve is always driving with a loose steering wheel. Most of the ex-

perience behind those numbers is with relatively tame ups and downs in the business cycle not

the kind of nancial violence weve been seeing over the last several years, which adds another

variable. So while pinpointing the exact timing is difcult, what we do know is that there are clear

and unavoidable consequences to wildly energetic money creation, including, sooner or later, ram-

pant price ination.

Are there signals? The primary sign wont be inows to ETFs (though they are indicators), or jew-

elry sales (the 70s bull market had nothing to do with bracelets), or even dramatic increases in thesale of physical bullion (we had that in 08 and gold was up 4.3% hardly meteoric).

No, the payday rise in gold will occur when there is a signicant shift in the psychology of the

general public.


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That shift is already starting to appear: Most dealers report that demand for physical metal con-

tinues to climb, especially when prices dip. Central bankers were net sellers of gold as recently

as 2009 and are now heavy net buyers, lending strong support to prices. And the US Mint has

frequently suspended sales of its more popular coins due to overwhelming demand.

Institutional investors are starting to enter the gold market as well. the University of Texas an-

nounced that its endowment fund (the second-largest in the country next to Harvards) had taken

possession of a billion dollars worth of physical gold. JP Morgan now accepts physical gold as

collateral. Morgan Stanley reports that its preferred metal exposure is gold. And Deutsche Bank

stated in a report, We see gold as an ofcially recognized form of money Before the gold rocket

takes off, lets look at the three best ways I know of to invest in gold so that youre positioned

ahead of the crowd.

Best Way #1: PHYSICAL GOLD

Given the state of the global economy and the US government continuing to administer large

doses of the wrong medicine, we rst recommend that all investors place from 10% to 20% of their

investments in gold bullion.

We dont mean 10-20% of your gold portfolio;we mean 20% of all your liquid assets.

This may sound extreme to some. But even if the global economy remains in a deationary dip and

the gold price struggles for a while, it remains the safe harbor during the upheaval.

Remember, its not simply a question of ination or deation; its crisis. And thats exactly what

gold ownership is for.

Bernanke and Geithner wont be rewriting history; theyll be part of it.

Nothing replaces having physical gold in your possession and under your control.

WHERE TO BUY PHYSICAL GOLD

If you know an honest, reputable coin dealer in your area, thats a good place to start for smaller

purchases. Our editors buy their gold either with a local dealer or online, but either way its impor-

tant to nd a reputable dealer... as in every line of business, theres no shortage of crooks.


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In our experience, the best places to buy physical gold are:

1. MilesFranklin.com (1-800-822-8080). Miles Franklin has some of the deepest contacts in the

industry and as a result has been able to source metal when many other dealers cant. And with

some of the best prices in the industry, theyre one of our top picks. Be sure to tell them youre

calling from Casey Research to get the best deal.

2. TheCoinAgent.com (1-888-494-8889, or email [email protected]). Proprietor Wayne

Lemonier has some of the lowest costs weve seen in the industry.

3. BorderGold.com (888-312-2288). Border Gold in Vancouver, BC is where we go for the Ca-

nadian Maple Leaf. Prices are so low that you will likely get a better total price with shipping

included than you would at your local coin shop.

4. DavidHall.com (1-800-759-7575). We go to one place for rare or numismatic coins: Van Sim-

mons at David Hall Rare Coins, who actually helped create the Professional Coin Grading

Service. We dont recommend entering the numismatic world as an investor unless you are or

are willing to become a knowledgeable coin collector.

5. HardAssetsAlliance.com* (877-727-7387; 877-7-assets). This program is ideal for those who

have $5,000 or more to invest, as your order is bid out to a network of dealers who compete for

your business, ensuring that you get the best possible price. You can take immediate delivery or

use one of a number of US or international storage locations. And it can all be done online.

Keep in mind that premiums and delivery times will uctuate according to market conditions.

There are other online dealers out there, and some may have good prices, too. The things to watch

for are total costs (including product, shipping, and insurance) and availability; if a dealer claims

it will be several weeks to locate the product, we would look elsewhere. Its also not uncommon

to nd salespeople who try to talk you into other products, such as proof sets or rare coins (this is

especially true with the dealers that advertise on TV), so beware of the hard sell.

We havent had that experience with our recommended dealers.

Where do you store your gold? There isnt a magic bullet for safekeeping, as each form has its own

*For full disclosure, Casey Research is a founding member of and receives afliate fees from the Hard Assets Alliance.

Some but not all of the recommended companies have afliate agreements with Casey Research. Casey Researchs

recommendations are based on the value and competitiveness of the products and services offered by these afliates

and its recommendations will not be inuenced by the presence or absence of afliate fees.
http://www.milesfranklin.com/http://www.thecoinagent.com/http://www.bordergold.com/http://www.davidhall.com/http://www.hardassetsalliance.com/http://www.hardassetsalliance.com/http://www.davidhall.com/http://www.bordergold.com/http://www.thecoinagent.com/http://www.milesfranklin.com/


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risks. Physical gold is subject to theft and re; paper gold is subject to fraud and mismanagement.

The most prudent approach is to own more than one form of gold, in more than one location, with

an edge toward physical ownership.

BEST GOLD ACCUMULATION PLAN

You can get started owning physical gold with as little as $50 a month, thanks to new savings pro-

grams that can automatically withdraw the money from your bank account.

So, instead of shelling out $1,600 or more for an ounce of gold, you can start buying that ounce and

more in monthly installments. This program stores your gold as well (you can also accumulate silver

through this program), and you can take delivery any time.Weve vetted several of these programs

and have found SilverSaver to be the most convenient for automatically accumulating metal.

SilverSaver, despite the name, allows you to purchase gold, too. It is the easiest of these programs

to automatically purchase physical metal right from your bank account. Storage is at the First State

Depository in Delaware, and you can take delivery at any time.

BullionVault and GoldMoney are also excellent programs, but they arent designed for delivery

(though it can be arranged). If you intend to eventually take possession and want a no-hassle way

of automatically buying metal, SilverSaver is your best bet.

Best Way #2: PAPER GOLD

While there is no substitute for having physical gold under your immediate control, holding paper

proxies for the metal can be a useful portfolio supplement. In recent years, the market has responded

to burgeoning demand for convenient ways to trade commodities by creating a galaxy of exchange-

traded funds (ETFs). These are designed to mirror the ups and downs of the underlying commodity

and can be bought and sold like a stock. They do not provide delivery of metal to the average investor.

1. The largest and most popular gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), buys and holds gold bullionin a secure London vault, with each share trading at approximately 1/10 the price of an ounce

of gold on the spot market. GLD has done a very good job of following golds lead, posting gains

that have been only slightly below that of the metal itself (due to costs). GLD represents a sim-

ple, effective way of extracting some paper prots from golds bull run. We like the ETF Physical

Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL) even better, since the gold is stored in Switzerland and the custodial

structure is less complicated.
https://silversaver.com/https://silversaver.com/


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2. Want a fund with both gold and silver? Central Fund of Canada (CEF) is a closed-end fund

thats made up of roughly 55% gold and 42% silver. The major difference between it and an

ETF is that ETFs are structured to keep the share price very close to net asset value (NAV).

Not so with a closed-end fund, which responds much more strongly to market sentiment about

the fund itself. This means that shares in a gold-based, closed-end fund can trade at a steep dis-

count to NAV or at a premium. Over time, while CEF rises and falls in tandem with gold, those

who buy at a discount and sell at a premium will get an added kicker and those who do the

opposite will get kicked. To watch for the best entry point, visit the CEF website from time to

time and click on Net Asset Value. The gure is updated daily.

3. Perth Mint Certicates (PMCs)are a form of paper gold. The additional advantage a PMC pro-

vides over ETFs is that it gives you instant international diversication. The disadvantage is that

it doesnt trade like a stock, as theyre designed for more long-term holdings. Its also the only

government-backed bullion storage program vaulted and insured by the state of Western Aus-tralia. There is a US$10,000 minimum initial purchase and a US$5,000 minimum for subse-

quent purchases. If you live outside Australia, you must use an approved dealer; we recommend

AssetStrategiesInternational.com (1-800-831-0007 in North America).

Best Way #3: THE RIGHT GOLD STOCKS

Gold stocks are a leveraged way to play a rising gold price. You might look at gold as your defense

and gold stocks as your offense. When the gold price really heats up, gold stocks will rise exponen-

tially more. It is this volatility that will bring us what we believe will be life-changing prots.

One bit of caution, though: with this added leverage comes added risk. Gold stocks exhibit greater

volatility than gold in both directions. This has two implications:

Our company recommendations should not be viewed as family heirlooms you can hold

into old age or leave to your children. At some point we will be selling our stock positions to

lock in big gains.

We recommend that you avoid trading. You may read others who recommend doing this, buttrading in our opinion is not a prudent way to capture the big gains. Keep in mind that you

must be right twice to make one protable trade; you must correctly time the bottom and cor-

rectly time the top to capture a gain. A wrong call on one of those can keep you from proting.

And worse what if you get caught on the sidelines and the stock takes off without you?

Our best advice on how to buy a gold stock can be summed up in three words.
http://www.centralfund.com/http://www.centralfund.com/


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BUY. HOLD. REPEAT.

Buywhen prices drop and give you attractive entry points. There are always corrections, and

when those inevitable pullbacks come, you have the opportunity to initiate or add to positions atattractive prices.

Thats what theBIG GOLD editors do.

Hold meaning dont trade it, time it, or run the risk of getting caught on the sidelines with

stocks taking off. Plus, youll get to sleep better at night than those who try their hand at timing.

And repeat until the rest of civilization joins us and pushes our prices much higher.

Until the mania kicks in, we do recommend taking prots when youre up by, say, 50% or more.

This is how we come up with the cash to buy more stocks and bullion.

By following this simple strategy, one can accumulate substantial positions over time at good prices.

In fact, Doug Casey has often said that his success as an investor has come down to one key factor:

being able to recognize the difference between somethings price and its value. Whenever theres

a large discrepancy between these two in any form of investment, its an opportunity to prot. And

thats especially true with gold stocks right now.

WHY GOLD STOCKS ARE GATHERING STRENGTH

Investors are becoming increasingly antsy to nd a place to put their money that isnt exposed to

manipulated markets, suspect reporting, or shady trading practices.

Once ination begins to ramp up, there will even be a widespread questioning of the value of cur-

rency itself. People will turn to historys premier safe haven, gold.

As we said before, gold is money when nothing else is.

One of the criteria that make gold suitable as money is its limited supply. And although world gold

production has been rising since 2008, it is still below its 2001 peak. Of the eight largest gold-

producing countries in the world, six have declining production and thus bring fewer and fewer

ounces to the market every year.


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Further, in the most recent data available, the World Mining Congress reported some alarming statistics:

Based on historic averages, 75% of all discovered gold has been mined.

In spite of massive increases in exploration spending, new discoveries are declining.

The traditional search space for gold is being depleted.

Newer mines are being found in more technically challenging and politically risky areas.

Make no mistake: A decrease in global gold production will underpin the bull market for years.

At the same time, demand is skyrocketing. Central banks have been net buyers of gold since 2009.

And 20 out of 22 fund managers recently interviewed are buying physical gold for personal invest-

ment because they fear quantitative easing programs will lead to ination. In other words, not only

are they buying gold in their funds, theyre also stashing some at home.

India and China are also accelerating their gold purchases. According to the World Gold Council,

these two countries represent 52% of all investment demand for gold.

Despite the insatiable world appetite for the yellow metal, the companies that produce the stuff

have not been appropriately rewarded. Their stock prices remain relatively inexpensive.

So why do we think gold stocks will gather strength? Because the gold price is going higher! As it

does, gold stocks will catch up in a big way.

The stocks that prosper the most will be those producers that are best at combining growing reve-

nue streams with effective cost controls and properties in areas where mining activity is welcomed.

MR. CONSERVATIVES APPROACH

The easiest, simplest, and most conservative way to prot with gold stocks is to buy into a gold-

stock mutual fund that has a low expense ratio. While there are thousands of mutual funds, there

are only a couple dozen gold-stock funds, and not all make a good investment, in our opinion.

There is a second conservative way to buy gold stocks that most of the investing public is not yet

aware of: gold (and silver) royalty companies. These are the least risky precious-metal stocks be-

cause they buy a xed percentage interest in a mines gross production and let the mining company

do the dirty work. In other words, they prot as gold is mined and the price rises, but they have no

exposure to production troubles or rising costs.


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These methods are conservative but dont mistake this to mean that they wont be protable: our

royalty companies have been our top performer every year since 2008! Even when gold stocks as a

group were down in 2011 and 2012, our royalty company recommendations were up for the year.

When gold (and silver) take off again, prot margins of these companies will soar, as will their

share prices.

OUR SECRET TO PICKING GOLD STOCKS

When it comes to picking gold stocks,BIG GOLD seeks out the most undervalued and makes

them long-term holdings. We start by analyzing the standard metrics: P/E ratios, revenue growth,

market capitalization (or market cap), and debt/equity. That last one is particularly important; if a

company is carrying too much debt and has to renance to fund operations, its not likely to raisethe cash on very favorable terms.

But there are other factors unique to our sector that must be considered. We know demand is rag-

ing and supply dwindling, so we look closely at what proven reserves a company has in the ground,

how quickly itll be able to get them out, and at what cost. Once we know this, we can calculate a

net asset value for each miner that enables us to compare it to its peers.

This net asset value, put through our proprietary mathematical model, allows us to assign each com-

pany a number we call the Valuation Ratio (VR). A VR of 1.0 denotes a company that is fairly valued,

so the further a stocks VR falls below 1.0, the more undervalued it is. Conversely, companies over 1.0

would be overvalued. Our valuation ratio is updated every 30 minutes during trading hours.

After taking into consideration a gold (or silver) miners VR, along with the standard metrics, we

then plug in the intangibles, asking questions like: Are the companys mines in politically stable

areas? How strong is managements experience?

Are the local governments supportive? And so on. The answer to some of these questions explains

why we dont recommend some of the largest gold mining companies, despite having low VRs.

In the end, we arrive at a list of what we believe are the best of the best.


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SIZE MATTERS

There are different sizes of gold producers, each with its own level of risk and reward. Heres

the breakdown:

Major Producers. These companies have multiple deposits, usually in multiple countries, and

are considered majors because of the size of their reserves and market cap. Generally, a major

produces over one million ounces of gold per year. They tend to carry less risk than smaller com-

panies, and their stock prices are less volatile.

Mid-Tier (or Intermediate) Producers. A mid-tier company produces 100,000 to 1 million

ounces of gold per year. Risk varies from company to company. Perhaps more so than the majors,

their protability is closely tied to the price of gold; as gold rises, these companies will show expo-

nentially greater prots.

Small Producers. These companies are either just starting to produce, have smaller operations,

or just one mine. They tend to have higher risk because they may lack diversication and are thus

vulnerable if they experience a problem with their primary project. Yet they tend to see the highest

growth prole, and as they add reserves or grow production, the market will typically revalue the

business and reprice its stock upward. More risk, but more upside potential.

OPPORTUNITY FROM CRISISCrisis and opportunity are as tightly bound as gold and money. The

current challenging market brings with it tremendous opportuni-

ties for investors in precious metals. Many of these opportunities

are presented every month inBIG GOLD from Casey Research.

Id like to invite you to give it a try for just $79 for a full-year,

12-issue subscription. Its completely risk-free you may cancel

any time within 90 days for a 100% refund. As soon as you sub-

scribe, youll have access to our portfolio recommendations and

all back issues.Learn More Now
http://www.caseyresearch.com/go/bwa2X/CSRhttp://www.caseyresearch.com/go/bwa2X/CSR


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