Hub Futures Explorers Input Session 26 Feb 2013

Adam Jorlen, Futurist & Helen Palmer, Change Facilitator

#hubfutures

CHECK IN

…in one word or with one breath -

How am I?

Copyright: Joseph Voros

Generic Foresight Process

Inputs

Things happening…

Delphi – expert panel Environmental scanning – how will

the future be different?

What is scanning?

Scanning is the art of systematically exploring the external environment to:1. better understand the nature and

pace of change in that environment, and

2. identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments relevant to your organization.

Dr. Michael Jackson, Chairman, Shaping Tomorrow

Copyright: Wendy Schultz, infinitefutures.com

time

Why scan?

How to scan

"Out of the box" thinking, an open mind, and a desire to discover new things.

Exposure to many sources, ideas, and challenges.

Identify and tear down "taboos" ghosting the organisation

Meta-scanning - Bring self-awareness into scanning the world. What are my filters?

10 minutes in pairs…

1. What are three “things” which may impact the future of Hub?2. Discuss Zia Sardar’s questions:

a) Does it make sense? b) Who benefits? c) Where is this going?

3. Put all scan-hits on separate post-it notes.

V-STEEP Values Social Technological Economic Environmental Political

Marcus Barber - Looking Up Feeling Good - lufg.com

Ken Wilber’s four quadrant model

Homework – Hub Ethos What stood out for you? What resonates with you? What didn’t sit right with you? What do you think wasn’t said?

(reading between the lines)

Make Framing Decisions

Framing enables us to define the scope and focus of the journey

Clarify objective for input Framing prevents misunderstandings

that generate confusion and wasted work

Purpose / Objective We are the future of the Hub A four-month foresight process to:

crowd-source a couple of scenarios or options for the future of Hub Melbourne, and

increase / deepen awareness of futures thinking in the Hub community.

Use the wisdom of the crowd Build on Hub Ethos / shared meaning

Framing Adjust Attitudes Know the Audience Understand the Rationale and

Purpose Set Objectives Select the team and roles

(From Hines & Bishop - Thinking about the Future)

ScaleHow far ahead do we look?

1926

Today

1975 2050 210020252000

Beyond Hub

HUB Australia

INPUT

HUB Melb

ANALYSIS

INTERPRETATION @adamjorlen

PROSPECTION

OUTPUT

NationalField

#

HUB Global

F-WALL F-WALL

NationalField

#

#HUBFUTURES

Beginners and Experts

Who do we ask?

"The beginner's mind includes - the expert's mind excludes" Shunruy Suzuki

Types of Futures

Potential – all possible futures

Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge)

Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge)

Probable - “likely to” happen (current trends)

Preferable - “want to” happen (value judgments)

Types of futures

Wisdom of Crowds

“[if] you put together a big enough and diverse enough group of people and ask them to ‘make decisions affecting matters of general interest’, that group’s decision will, over time, be ‘intellectually [superior] to the isolated individual’, no matter how smart or well-informed he is.”

James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds

Why would Hubbers help to scan?

How can we involve and engage other Hubbers in the scanning process? a) They help other Hubbers in the

community b) They get

data/info/knowledge/wisdom for themselves and their businesses.

c) Gamification (defined target of weak signals each fortnight? Identify good spotters)

Wish list Collaborative – Involve and as

many people as possible within and beyond the Hub community to capture the wisdom of the group.

Creative – Novel, valuable approaches

Participatory: Ensure individuals participate, communicate, render opinions, finding commonality and areas of difference.

Scanning objectives1. Arranged a Delphi in the community on

Yammer with #hubfutures 2. Made physically  visible the #hubfutures

exploration for other Hubbers to contribute to on the physical Futures Wall

3. Involved and sourced wisdom from the Hub Wisdom Council in person or via email

4. Gained a broader perspective from the world (open foresight) via Twitter #hubfutures

5. Engaged and involved global Hubbers through National Field.

Roles Helen - Facilitates adventures into the future,

Cruise Manager Michael – Foreign correspondent Neil – Ship Mentor Tony - How can Hub spill out in Melbourne? Julien - a. Check multiple perspectives - reflecting

around languages and cross-cultural views. b. Bridge the abstract and concrete.

Adam – Navigator + Reporter + Captain etc Brad - Shipping magnate (three ships heading out

from Sydney + Melbourne + Adelaide) More? Metaphor or other...

REPORT SIGNAL!

Hub Futures

Twitter hash tag + Yammer topic : #hubfutures

CHECK OUT What’s sitting at the top of your

mind? What will you do next as a result of

today’s session? Part of the scanning as decided in the session…

Expected time for participants...