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North Carolina and the FAFSA:Where we stand

Marcia WestonOutreach Manager, NCSEAA

Trae BrookinsScholarship & Grant Manager, NCSEAA

2014 FAFSA DAYMarcia Weston

Evaluation ReportMarch, 2014

PROGRAM VALUE

-10%10%30%50%70%

33.8%66.1%

0.1%

How Helpful was FAFSA Day?

PROGRAM VALUE

64%

15%

21%FAFSA Completion Determines Enrollment Plans

Definitely Most Likely Probably Not

AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION

Under $20,000

$20,000-$39000

$40,000-$59,000

$60,000 or higher

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

30%

28%

17%

26%

Household Income

AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION

Less Than 2Year Degree

Associates Degree

Bachelors Degree

Graduate Degree

Participant Not Sure

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

54%

12%

25%

7%

2%

Parent Education Levels

AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION

American Indian/Alaskan Native1%

Asian American/Pacific Islander1%

Black/African American/African33%

Hispanic/Latino10%

White/Caucasian49%

Multiracial / Other5%

Racial / EthnicParticipation

AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION

Vocat

ional

(less

than 2

years

)

Associ

ates D

egree

Bache

lors D

egree

Gradua

te / P

rofess

ional D

egree

Undeci

ded

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

11%

25%

58%

4% 3%

Student Degree Plans

OUTREACH EFFECTIVENESS

College Admissions

Community Organization

Friend

Mailing to the Home

School

Radio / Television

Newspaper

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

15%

8%

19%

16%

61%

2%

2%

Sources of FAFSA Day Announcements(reported by participants)

COMPARATIVES

College admissions

Community organization

Friend

Mailing to the home

School

Radio / Television

Newspaper

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

Income and Source of Information

$60,000 or higher$40,000-$59,000$20,000-$39,000Under $20,000

COMPARATIVES

Under $20,000

$20,000-$39,000

$40,000-$59,000

$60,000 or higher

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

21%

16%

7%

12%

9%

11%

9%

14%

Income and Site Location

SECU Campus / High School

COMPARATIVES

Parent Education Level

COMPARATIVES

First Generation College

Associates Degree Bachelors Degree Graduate Degree Participant Not Sure

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%39%

8%

13%

3%1%

8% 2%4%

1%0.5%

8% 3%

8%2%

0.5%

FAFSA Completion and Enrollment Plans(by Parent Education Level)

Definitely Determine College Enrollment Most Likely Determine College EnrollmentProbably Not Determine College Enrollment

COMPARATIVES

FAFSA Day Participants

North Carolina

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

0.84%

1.20%

1.47%

2.20%

32.56%

21.40%

10.40%

8.30%

49.26%

69.80%

5.46%

Racial / Ethnic Participation and North Carolina Population(NC data from American Community Survey 2008-2012)

American Indian/Alaskan NativeAsian American/Pacific IslanderBlack/African American/AfricanHispanic/LatinoWhite/CaucasianMultiracial / Other

RECOMMENDATIONS

Targeted Outreach Efforts

• Although FAFSA Day does draw an impressive percentage of low-income and first-generation students, targeting these populations through college access marketing strategies may increase participation

• Increase outreach to high schools as surveys are showing that the schools have the greatest impact on where students hear about FAFSA Day

• Develop outreach strategies that target parents who have no college-going history through employers, community organizations, faith-based programs, etc.

• Provide school counselors and principals with FAFSA submission numbers as reported by the U.S. Department of Education that will help high schools promote FAFSA completion among seniors

• Include messaging of FAFSA completion regardless if students are intending to enroll in the following fall. Discovering how much aid for which they are eligible may encourage enrollment plans

• Expand outreach to prospective adult student populations where postsecondary program enrollment has the largest projections (Note: NCES graph)

National Center for Educational Statistics

RECOMMENDATIONS

Data Collection

• Include data collected from state-wide FAFSA submissions and compare data in first-generation, low-income, and high school attendance categories

• Provide scholarships at campus FAFSA Day sites to increase attendance and survey completion

• Include a survey question asking if attendee is currently in high school, attending college, or has been out of high school for two or more years

• Conduct focus groups in selected campus sites with first-generation students to determine what conditions impacted FAFSA completion

 

RECOMMENDATIONS

Overall

• Develop a comprehensive three-year FAFSA completion plan that considers FAFSA Day and other FAFSA completion initiatives

• Conduct a cost effectiveness analysis to determine efficacy of outreach efforts

 

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FAFSAs received (Year-to-date) for 2014-15

Trae BrookinsScholarship & Grant Manager, NCSEAA

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What are we counting here?• Agreement with U.S. Department of Education provides NCSEAA with a

copy of all FAFSAs submitted by NC students and to all NC institutions• All data for 2014-15 is as of 3/31/2014, the first three months of the

application cycle• All data for the current and prior academic years is as of 3/31/2014, the

first three months of each years applications cycle, e.g.,– 2013-14, 3/31/2013– 2012-13, 3/31/2012, etc.

• FAFSAs counted are:– The first received for the academic year (usually, CPS#01)– Valid and invalid ISIRs (Dependency Status= D,X,I,Y)– Reported State of Student Residence = ‘NC’ (no start date test)– Undergraduates (No prior earned Bachelor’s, Grade Level =1,2,3,4,5,blank)

• Not counted: non-NC residents; grad students; 2nd degree students• “Other” institutions all out-of-state institutions (except JWU-Charlotte)

and in-state institutions other that are non-NCCCS, UNC, NCICU.• Counts are unique within a category unless otherwise stated.

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FAFSA counts by sector/academic year with % change from prior year

Academic Year

UNC NCCCS NCICU Other

Count% Chg from

Prior Year Count% Chg from

Prior Year Count% Chg from

Prior Year Count% Chg from

Prior Year

2004-2005

59,487

9.8%

37,109

-0.9%

20,294

9.0%

16,459

10.1%2005-2006

65,322

36,789

22,116

18,119

2006-2007

72,257 10.6%

39,993 8.7%

22,913 3.6%

19,670 8.6%

2007-2008

76,305 5.6%

41,506 3.8%

23,814 3.9%

21,311 8.3%

2008-2009

81,877 7.3%

46,941 13.1%

25,876 8.7%

24,652 15.7%

2009-2010

94,209 15.1%

67,645 44.1%

29,799 15.2%

32,727 32.8%

2010-2011

99,123 5.2%

83,817 23.9%

32,671 9.6%

42,114 28.7%

2011-2012

106,650 7.6%

98,166 17.1%

35,743 9.4%

50,803 20.6%

2012-2013

111,678 4.7%

96,345 -1.9%

38,583 7.9%

55,929 10.1%

2013-2014

110,460 -1.1%

93,616 -2.8%

37,669 -2.4%

56,929 1.8%

2014-2015

107,400 -2.8%

83,361 -11.0%

35,362 -6.1%

55,632 -2.3%

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FAFSA counts by sector/academic year

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Sum of Hdcont_UNC_ISIR

Sum of Hdcnt_CC_ISIR

Sum of Hdcnt_NCICU_ISIR

Sum of Hdcnt_Other_ISIR

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Percentage change from prior year: Trends

Academic Year UNC NCCCS NCICU Other

2005-2006 9.81% -0.86% 8.98% 10.09%2006-2007 10.62% 8.71% 3.60% 8.56%2007-2008 5.60% 3.78% 3.93% 8.34%2008-2009 7.30% 13.09% 8.66% 15.68%2009-2010 15.06% 44.11% 15.16% 32.76%2010-2011 5.22% 23.91% 9.64% 28.68%2011-2012 7.59% 17.12% 9.40% 20.63%2012-2013 4.71% -1.86% 7.95% 10.09%2013-2014 -1.09% -2.83% -2.37% 1.79%2014-2015 -2.77% -10.95% -6.12% -2.28%

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Percentage change from prior year: Trends

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

Sum of PrctChg_UNC_PY

Sum of PrctChg_CC_PY

Sum of PrctChg_NCICU_PY

Sum of PrctChg_Other_PY

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FAFSA peak volumes

• Mid- to late- Feb (around FAFSA days)• March 15th

• March 31st

• June 30th • Mid-July• Right before summer session 1

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Cumulative FAFSAs received by date per academic year: All NC filers (unique count across sectors)

• 2014-15 cumulative FAFSAs are approximately half-way between YTD for 2008-09 and 2009-10

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Cumulative FAFSAs received by date per academic year: UNCs

• 2014-15 cumulative FAFSAs are approximately half-way between YTD for 2008-09 and 2009-10

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Cumulative FAFSAs received by date per academic year: NCICU

• 2014-15 cumulative FAFSAs are approximately half-way between YTD for 2008-09 and 2009-10

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• 2014-15 cumulative FAFSAs are slightly below YTD for 2009-10

Cumulative FAFSAs received by date per academic year: NCCCS

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Cross-sector FAFSA filing

• Which type(s) of institutions did NC UG FAFSA filers submit their data to?

• Looked at all 10 school code fields• Combinations of NCCCS, NCICU, UNC and Other

– 15 possible combinations, e.g., • NCCCS only• NCCCS + NCICU• NCCCS + UNC• NCCCS + Other• NCCCS + NCICU + UNC• NCCCS + UNC + Other• NCCCS + NCICU + UNC + Other• etc.

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Cross-sector FAFSA filing

Academic Year

Prct_CC_NCICU

Prct_CC_NCICU_OTHER

Prct_CC_NCICU_UNC_OTHER

Prct_CC_ONLY

Prct_CC_OTHER

Prct_CC_UNC_NCICU

Prct_CC_UNC_OTHER

Prct_NCICU_ONLY

Prct_NCICU_OTHER

Prct_OTHER_ONLY

Prct_UNC_CC

Prct_UNC_NCICU

Prct_UNC_NCICU_OTHER

Prct_UNC_ONLY

Prct_UNC_OTHER

Grand Total

2004-2005 0.93% 0.15% 0.21% 24.74% 0.71% 4.86% 0.47% 9.36% 0.63% 7.81% 4.06% 3.73% 1.58% 37.95% 2.82% 100.01%

2005-2006 0.98% 0.17% 0.28% 21.91% 0.75% 5.37% 0.53% 9.22% 0.58% 7.89% 4.70% 4.02% 1.84% 38.69% 3.06% 99.99%

2006-2007 0.76% 0.11% 0.25% 22.85% 0.62% 4.28% 0.41% 9.59% 0.55% 8.55% 3.70% 3.29% 1.48% 40.92% 2.63% 99.99%

2007-2008 0.76% 0.13% 0.22% 22.49% 0.60% 4.29% 0.40% 9.44% 0.53% 8.96% 3.67% 3.30% 1.41% 41.02% 2.77% 99.99%

2008-2009 0.70% 0.13% 0.28% 23.29% 0.67% 4.32% 0.51% 9.10% 0.49% 9.45% 3.71% 3.28% 1.71% 39.68% 2.70% 100.02%

2009-2010 0.77% 0.15% 0.32% 27.65% 0.75% 4.00% 0.49% 8.05% 0.42% 10.58% 3.76% 3.02% 1.64% 35.86% 2.52% 99.98%

2010-2011 0.73% 0.18% 0.48% 30.33% 0.93% 3.99% 0.53% 7.29% 0.41% 12.56% 3.51% 2.88% 1.65% 32.28% 2.26% 100.01%

2011-2012 0.76% 0.22% 0.45% 31.53% 1.08% 3.78% 0.53% 7.02% 0.42% 13.68% 3.57% 2.71% 1.63% 30.35% 2.28% 100.01%

2012-2013 0.86% 0.30% 0.76% 28.54% 1.40% 4.56% 0.87% 6.58% 0.42% 14.12% 4.35% 3.00% 2.00% 29.69% 2.55% 100.00%

2013-2014 0.86% 0.30% 0.78% 27.85% 1.42% 4.55% 0.89% 6.42% 0.46% 14.68% 4.49% 2.94% 2.02% 29.67% 2.69% 100.02%

2014-2015 0.80% 0.28% 0.78% 26.11% 1.41% 4.35% 0.86% 6.44% 0.46% 15.19% 4.32% 2.88% 2.17% 31.05% 2.89% 99.99%

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Cross-sector FAFSA filing

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00%100.00%

24.7%

21.9%

22.9%

22.5%

23.3%

27.7%

30.3%

31.5%

28.5%

27.9%

26.1%

9.4%

9.2%

9.6%

9.4%

9.1%

8.1%

7.3%

7.0%

6.6%

6.4%

6.4%

7.8%

7.9%

8.6%

9.0%

9.5%

10.6%

12.6%

13.7%

14.1%

14.7%

15.2%

38.0%

38.7%

40.9%

41.0%

39.7%

35.9%

32.3%

30.3%

29.7%

29.7%

31.1%

Prct_CC_NCICUPrct_CC_NCICU_OTHERPrct_CC_NCICU_UNC_OTHERPrct_CC_ONLYPrct_CC_OTHERPrct_CC_UNC_NCICUPrct_CC_UNC_OTHERPrct_NCICU_ONLYPrct_NCICU_OTHERPrct_OTHER_ONLYPrct_UNC_CCPrct_UNC_NCICUPrct_UNC_NCICU_OTHERPrct_UNC_ONLYPrct_UNC_OTHER

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What do NC FAFSA filers look like?College education of filer’s parents

2004_2

005

2005_2

006

2006_2

007

2007_2

008

2008_2

009

2009_2

010

2010_2

011

2011_2

012

2012_2

013

2013_2

014

2014_2

015

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Sum of Both-ParCollege_MeanSum of Fa-therCollege_MeanSum of Moth-erCollege_Mean

34

What do NC FAFSA filers look like?College education of filer’s parents• Significant change? Maybe.

2004_2005

2005_2006

2006_2007

2007_2008

2008_2009

2009_2010

2010_2011

2011_2012

2012_2013

2013_2014

2014_2015

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

26

26.5

Mean student age

35

• Income earned from work (IEW) is inflation adjusted (CPI) to 2013 constant dollars

• NC families are not making more on average.• Change in ISIR record layout increases average.

What do NC FAFSA filers look like?Mean and median income of filers

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

Depe

nden

t

Inde

pend

ent

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

Sum of Fami-lyIEW_adj_Mean

Sum of Fami-lyIEW_adj_Median

36

What do NC FAFSA filers look like?Mean and median income of filers (Dependents)

• “Trimmed” the adjusted income earned from work (IEW) back to the old maximum of 999,999.

37

What do NC FAFSA filers look like?Mean and median income of filers (Dependents)

• “Trimmed” the adjusted income earned from work (IEW) back to the old maximum of 999,999.

38

Questions?

Contact

• Marcia Weston ph. (919) 248-4686 mweston@ncseaa.edu

• Trae Brookins ph. (919) 248-4650 tbrookins@ncseaa.edu