2014 pv reliability, operations & maintenance workshop: pv system health characterisation and...
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2014 PV Reliability, Operations & Maintenance Workshop: PV System Health Characterization and Loss Analysis using Operation Data 3E, Karel De BrabandereTRANSCRIPT
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991. [email protected] | www.3E.eu
PV System Health
Characterisation and Loss
Analysis using Operation Data
PV Reliability & O&M Workshop
Karel De Brabandere
May 7, 2014
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
15 year global track record in sustainable energy
3E Intro: who we are
• Created in
1999
• Projects in 40
countries
• Offices in 7
countries
• Team of 20
nationalities
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This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Integrated services over project lifecycle
3E Intro: what we do
APPLIED
RESEARCH STRATEGY
& POLICY
FEASIBILITY STUDIES
& resource assessments
DUE DILIGENCE
at all project phases
MONITORING & MANAGEMENT
TECHNICAL ADVISORY
through the project lifecycle
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This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
International track-record in solar PV
Our experience
+ 5 GWp experience in solar technical advisory
over whole project lifecycle
+ 750 MWp monitored by proprietary software
SynaptiQ
40 countries worldwide
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This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
PV System Performance Evaluation through
Bottom-up Modelling (1)
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Many different losses affect the
performance ratio (PR)
Estimating individual losses
beforehand is easy (though not
always very accurate)
Measuring individual losses on a
PV plant is difficult
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
PV System Performance Evaluation through
Bottom-up Modelling (2)
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Production differs from system to
system, both forecasted and real
Not always good correlation
between forecasted and real
production
Root cause of deviation often not
identified
Source: Leloux et al., “Review of the performance of residential PV systems
in Belgium,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2012.
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Automated PV System Health Characterisation
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Overall Objective
Development and implementation of methods to identify root cause of
sudden or gradual changes of PV system performance
Approach
Regression of „grey-box model‟
o Reflecting physical dependencies
o Derivation of single-diode, optical, thermal, time, etc.. parameters
Continuously monitor fitted grey-box parameters
Compare parameters with expected range
Relate parameter deviations with possible root causes
Sneak preview of work in progress
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Analyse
PV System Health Scan Process
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Monitoring Data
Configuration,
Datasheet,
Laboratory Tests
Theoretic
System
Parameters
Theoretic
Performance
Irradiation
Measured
Performance
Irradiation
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Analyse
PV System Health Scan Process
9
Theoretic
System
Parameters
Monitoring Data
Configuration,
Datasheet,
Laboratory Tests
Measured
Performance
Theoretic
Performance
Irradiation
Irradiation
Modelled
System
Parameters
Analyse
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Bottom-up versus Top-Down
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Bottom-up or white-box
Detailed ex-ante modelling of system components and its parameters
o Estimation of yield before production starts
o e.g. PVsyst
Lots of ways to tune parameters
Sometimes large deviations between model and reality
Top-Down or grey-box
Ex-post fitting of monitoring data to system equations in order to derive
system characteristics
Parameters are result from fitting, no tuning
Small deviations or „residuals‟ between model and reality
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Fitting of System Parameters: MPP current
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This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
MPP current fitting: fitted versus measured
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Measured values
Fitte
d v
alu
es
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Fitting of System Parameters: MPP voltage
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This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
MPP voltage fitting: fitted versus measured
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Measured values
Fitte
d v
alu
es
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Fitting of System Parameters
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Similar approach for other measurements, e.g.:
AC values
Irradiation sensors
Temperature sensors
…
Estimation of other system parameters, e.g.:
Offset and slope of sensors
Reflection
Shading
Equivalent thermal resistance
Time constants (thermal, MPP tracking)
Inverter derating limits
…
How visualize this in a user-friendly way?
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Think of a blood analysis…
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Expected
range
Measured
Value
Measured
component
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Fitted compared to expected parameters
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Measured
component Expected
range
Measured
Value
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Analyse
PV System Health Scan Process
18
Theoretic
System
Parameters
Monitoring Data
Configuration,
Datasheet,
Laboratory Tests
Measured
Performance
Theoretic
Performance
Analyse
Irradiation
Modelled
Performance
Irradiation
Modelled
System
Parameters
Analyse
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Modelled versus theoretic performance
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This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Sankey diagram (part 1)
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This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Analyse
PV System Health Scan Process
21
Theoretic
System
Parameters
Monitoring Data
Configuration,
Datasheet,
Laboratory Tests
Measured
Performance
Analyse
Theoretic
Performance
Analyse
Irradiation
Modelled
Performance
Irradiation
Modelled
System
Parameters
Analyse
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Analysis of residuals
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This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Sankey diagram (part 2)
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This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Fitting of inter-array shade profile angle
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Source: Müller et al., “Maximizing the Yield of Large PV Power Plants: What Can We Learn From Monitoring and Simulation?,”
in 27th EU PVSEC, Frankfurt, Germany, 2012, pp. 3775–3781.
Sun profile angle
Inter-array shade profile angle
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Fitting of inter-array shade profile angle
25
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Fitting of inter-array shade profile angle
26
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Fitting of inter-array shade profile angle
27
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
MPP current fitting: fitted versus measured
28
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Fitting of inter-array shade profile angle
29
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Challenges
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Data quality / availability in commercial plants
Data gaps, sensor availability, communication issues
Sensor accuracy
Correctness of configuration data
Consistency of results (e.g. depending on data length, system configuration)
Methodology fine-tuning in order to maximize consistency
Confidence margins of estimated parameters
Build up a knowledge base of typical health scan results
Determination of typical distribution, expected range
Dependency on components, design choices,
Link between parameter deviations and probable root cause
Visualisation of results understandable to system owners, O&M
Health scan, Sankey diagram, …
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Use cases
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Understand difference with the forecasted PR:
Identify where the extra losses / gains come from
o PV modules? Inverters? String connections? Grid? …
o Design? Dimensioning? O&M? …
o Inter-array shading? Soiling? Sensor issues? ...
In order to
o Initiate early corrective actions
o Learn and make better future design choices
o Identify components which systematically under- or overperform
Alternative for IV sweeping of PV arrays
No additional equipment, no interruption of production
Continuous, not just a one-off snapshot
Cost-effective
Fitting operation points that matter
Commissioning, due diligence
…
This work has received funding from the European Union‟s Seventh Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Thank you
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