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Driven by a stronger economy and historically high levels of pent-up demand among consumers, restau-
rant-industry sales are expected to hit a record high in 2014. According to the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Industry Forecast report, restaurant-and-foodservice sales are projected to total $683.4 billion in 2014, up 3.6 percent from 2013.
In inflation-adjusted terms, industry sales are projected to increase 1.2 percent in 2014. Although 2014 will represent the fifth consecu-tive year of real growth in restaurant sales, the gains remain below what would be expected during a normal post-recession period.
In 2014, the restaurant industry will employ 13.5 million individuals and remain the nation’s second-largest private sector employer. The
restaurant workforce continued to grow at a robust rate in 2013, keeping the industry among the economy’s leaders in job creation. Eating-and-drinking places are projected to add jobs at a 2.8 percent rate in 2014, which will represent the 15th consecutive year in which industry job growth outpaced the overall economy.
2014 Restaurant Industry Forecast
Present
Restaurant Industry’s Share of the Food Dollar
*projected
Adding It All Up: $683.4 billionProjectedrestaurantindustrysalesin2014
*Eating places include tableservice restaurants and quickservice restaurants, cafeterias and buffets, social caterers, and snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars.
Eating Places*:$455.9billion
Bars and Taverns:$20.0billion
Managed Services:$47.1billion
Lodging Places:$34.8billion
Retail, Vending, Recreation, Mobile:$66.4billion
CommercialrestaurantServices $624.3billion
NoncommercialrestaurantServices $56.6billion
militaryrestaurantServices $2.5billion
25%
47%
1955
RESTAURANT INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT
11.9million
13.5million
14.8million
2004 2014 2024* *
Restaurant Industry Sales(In Billions of Current Dollars)
*projected
$683.4
$42.8
$119.6
$239.3
$379.0
$586.7
2014
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
*
eXeCuTiveSummarY
SaleS&eCoNomiC FORecAsT
Fastest Restaurant Job GrowthProjected growth in restaurant-and-foodservice jobs, 2014 to 2024
1 Arizona 15.6%
2 Texas 15.3%
3 Florida 15.0%
4 Nevada 14.7%
5 Georgia 14.4%
6 NorthCarolina 14.0%
7 Alaska 14.0%
8 Alabama 13.9%
9 Utah 13.4%
10 Arkansas 13.3%
11 Colorado 13.3%
12 Delaware 13.0%
Source:National Restaurant Association
Tableservice Restaurant Segment Sales Growth
Nominal Sales Growth Real (Inflation-adjusted) Sales Growth
Source: National Restaurant Association; *projected
3.5%
1.1%
3.1%
0.4%
2.3%
0.1% 0.2%
2.6%
2011 2014*2012 2013
Better Than 2013 About the Same as 2013 Down From 2013
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
27%
66%
7% 8%
52%
10%
24%
43%
33% 31%
44%
25%32%
51%
FamilyDining FineDiningCasualDining FamilyDining FineDiningCasualDining
TableserviceSalesin2014 TableserviceProfitabilityin2014
TableserviceOperators’OutlookforSalesandProfitabilityin2014
38%37%
55%
17%
Tableservice Operators Expect Legislative & Regulatory Issues to Pose Challenges in 2014Topchallengesexpectedbytableserviceoperatorsin2014
Family Casual Fine Dining Dining Dining
HealthCareReform 25% 22% 16%
TheEconomy 10% 11% 24%
Government 21% 8% 6%
Building&MaintainingSalesVolume 9% 14% 7%
FoodCosts 7% 8% 10%
Recruiting&RetainingEmployees 6% 10% 6%
Competition 5% 8% 7%
MinimumWageIncrease 9% 3% 7%
LaborCosts 4% 6% 1%
Profitability 2% 4% 3%
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
TableServiCe TReNdsWorkForCe OuTlOOk & TReNds
Restaurant Operators Plan to Focus More on Recruiting and Retaining Employees
Source: National Restaurant Association,
Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
Devote More Resources in 2014 Devote Fewer Resources in 2014
Familydining
36%
4% 3%1%
3%6%
47%46% 48%50%
Casualdining
Finedining
Quick-service
FastCasual
Projected 2014 Limited-Service Sales Growth
Nominal Sales Growth Real (Inflation-adjusted) Sales Growth
Source: National Restaurant Association
limited-Servicerestaurants
4.4%
2.1%
5.0%
2.7%2.5%
0.1%
Cafeterias,Grill-buffets,andbuffets
SnackandNonalcoholicbeveragebars
Better Than 2013 About the Same as 2013 Down From 2013
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
Quickservice FastCasual
Limited-ServiceSalesin2014 Limited-ServiceProfitabilityin2014
Limited-ServiceOperators’OutlookforSalesandProfitabilityin2014
29%
62%
9%
40%
5%
55%
22%
38% 40%
50%
34%
16%
Quickservice FastCasual
Limited-Service Operators Expect Legislative & Regulatory Issues to Pose Challenges in 2014Topchallengesexpectedbylimited-serviceoperatorsin2014
Fast Quickservice Casual
HealthCareReform 42% 9%
TheEconomy 17% 14%
Government 8% 16%
Building&MaintainingSalesVolume 5% 18%
Recruiting&RetainingEmployees 6% 14%
FoodCosts 5% 9%
LaborCosts 6% 5%
MinimumWageIncrease 5% 4%
Competition 0% 5%
Profitability 5% 0%
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
limiTeD-ServiCe TReNds
TeCHNoloGY TReNds
Smart(phone) Restaurant ActivitiesConsumerswhosaytheywouldbelikelytouseasmartphoneortabletforrestaurant-relatedactivities
All Age Age Age Age Age adults 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Lookuplocationsordirections 67% 88% 78% 63% 60% 31% 80%
Ordertakeoutordelivery 52% 74% 62% 45% 39% 20% 67%
Userewardsorspecialdeals 50% 70% 58% 47% 38% 21% 65%
Makeareservation 46% 59% 60% 38% 40% 22% 56%
Lookupnutritioninformation 42% 55% 46% 38% 35% 23% 54%
Payforyourmeal 24% 43% 22% 16% 16% 9% 32%
Source: National Restaurant Association, Technology Innovations Consumer Survey, 2013
Childrenunder18inhousehold
Restaurants are Socially ActivePercentageofrestaurantoperatorswhoarecurrentlyactiveonsocialmedia
Family dining Casual dining Fine dining Quickservice Fast Casual
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
31%40%
67%59%
49%
19%
6% 6%11%13%
36% 35%
58%52%
16%
veryactive NotactiveSomewhatactive
ToP52014meNuTreNDS
TAbleseRvice
1 Locallysourcedmeat
andseafood
2 Locallygrownproduce
3 Environmental
sustainability
4Healthfulkids’meals
5 Gluten-freecuisine
Source: National Restaurant
Association, What’s Hot in 2014
chef survey
limiTed-seRvice1 Gluten-freeitems
2 Healthfulkids’meals
3 Spicyitems
4 Fruit/vegetablesidesin
kids’meals
5 Locallysourced
produce
Source: National Restaurant
Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
Consumers Go LocalPercentofrestaurantoperatorswhosaytheircustomersaremoreinterestedinlocallysourceditemsthantheyweretwoyearsago
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
72% 73%
91%
50%
70%
Familydining
Casualdining
Finedining
Quickservice Fastcasual
Restaurants Are Investing in TechnologyRestaurantoperatorswhosaytheywilldevotemoreresourcestotechnologyin2014
Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast dining dining dining service casual
Customer-facingtechnology 41% 50% 51% 43% 57%
Front-of-the-housetechnology 28% 35% 23% 39% 47%
Back-of-the-housetechnology 24% 30% 19% 33% 38%
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
For details on member benefits
and how to access the NRA’s
2014 Restaurant Industry
Forecast report, visit
Restaurant.org/Forecast.
Foundedin1919,theNational
RestaurantAssociationisthe
leadingbusinessassociationfor
therestaurantindustry.Together
withtheNationalRestaurant
AssociationEducationalFounda-
tion,ourgoalistoleadAmerica’s
restaurantindustryintoanewera
ofprosperity,prominence,andpar-
ticipation,enhancingthequalityof
lifeforallweserve.Foradditional
restaurantindustryresearchbeyond
thescopeofthisreport,visit
Restaurant.org/Research.
TeCHNoloGY TReNds Continued
FooD&meNu TReNds
Nutrition Makes a DifferenceConsumerstakenoticeofhealthfulmenuoptions
All Adults Men Women
Morehealthyoptionsavailablecomparedtotwoyearsago 81% 79% 84%
Morelikelytovisitarestaurantthatoffershealthyoptions 72% 67% 76%
Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey,
2013