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Oil Search Limited ARBN 055 079 868 Investor Seminar 2014 Strategic Review Disclaimer While every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, Oil Search Limited does not warrant that the information in this presentation is free from errors or omissions or is suitable for its intended use. Subject to any terms implied by law which cannot be excluded, Oil Search Limited accepts no responsibility for any loss, damage, cost or expense (whether direct or indirect) incurred by you as a result of any error, omission or misrepresentation in information in this presentation. All information in this presentation is subject to change without notice. This presentation also contains forward-looking statements which are subject to particular risks associated with the oil and gas industry. Oil Search Limited believes there are reasonable grounds for the expectations on which the statements are based. However actual outcomes could differ materially due to a range of factors including oil and gas prices, demand for oil, currency fluctuations, drilling results, field performance, the timing of well work-overs and field development, reserves depletion, progress on gas commercialisation and fiscal and other government issues and approvals. 2 Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

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Page 1: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Oil Search LimitedARBN 055 079 868

Investor Seminar

2014 Strategic Review

Disclaimer

While every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, Oil Search Limited does not warrant that the information in this presentation is free from errors or omissions or is suitable for its intended use. Subject to any terms implied by law which cannot be excluded, Oil Search Limited accepts no responsibility for any loss, damage, cost or expense (whether direct or indirect) incurred by you as a result of any error, omission or misrepresentation in information in this presentation. All information in this presentation is subject to change without notice.

This presentation also contains forward-looking statements which are subject to particular risks associated with the oil and gas industry. Oil Search Limited believes there are reasonable grounds for the expectations on which the statements are based. However actual outcomes could differ materially due to a range of factors including oil and gas prices, demand for oil, currency fluctuations, drilling results, field performance, the timing of well work-overs and field development, reserves depletion, progress on gas commercialisation and fiscal and other government issues and approvals.

2Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

Page 2: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Safety Briefing, Westin Hotel

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 3

Barnet Room

Emergency Exits

Today’s Agenda

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 4

Start Topic Presenter

9.00 Welcome/housekeeping A. Diamant

9.05 Introduction R. Lee

9.10 Review process and key outcomes P. Botten

9.40 External environment M. Kay

9.55 OSH’s capabilities and competencies M. Kay

10.10 Optimise value of existing assets P. Cholakos

10.20 Q&A

10.30 MORNING TEA

10.50 Gas development I. Munro

11.15 Exploration and new ventures J. Fowles

11.35 PNG sustainability P. Botten

11.45 Organisational structure P. Botten

11.50 Finance and capital management S. Gardiner

12.10 Summary and conclusions P. Botten

12.20 Q&A

12.30 LUNCH

Page 3: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Introduction

Section 1

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 5

Latest Speaker Picture Here

Rick LeeChairman

Introduction» Oil Search (OSH) undergoing a major corporate transformation:

– Commencement of PNG LNG Project and legacy cash flows

» Timely to re-evaluate Company’s position and strategy

» 2014 Strategic Review recently completed:

– All-encompassing review focused on setting roadmap for next phase of growth

– Thorough review of overall strategy, asset portfolio, operational capabilities, skills,

succession planning, capital management and dividend policy

» Renewed vision, strategic objectives and initiatives have been endorsed by the

Board

» Reward structures will be aligned to delivery of new goals and objectives

» Strategy will be reviewed on a regular basis and any material changes

communicated to shareholders

» Board believes OSH is in a very strong position and is confident that new

strategies will ensure continued delivery of top quartile returns to shareholders

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 6

Insert photo

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OSH’s new dividend policy

»Oil Search to adopt a proportional dividend policy, commencing with

2014 final dividend

– Target dividend payout ratio of 35% – 50% of core net profit after tax*

– Payout ratio will be reviewed in event of substantial rise or fall in oil prices

– Dividend reinvestment plan to be suspended, commencing with 2014 final

dividend

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 7

*excludes any material one-off adjustments to income

Review process and key outcomes

Section 2

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 8

Latest Speaker Picture Here

Peter BottenManaging Director

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Background

» Previous strategic reviews established series of key objectives, strategies and initiatives, supporting a vision to deliver top quartile returns:

– 2002 Strategic Review:

• Root and branch company assessment

• Led to acquisition of ChevronTexaco’s PNG assets, operatorship of PNG oil fields

– 2010 Strategic Review:

• Reinforced OSH’s commitment to extract value from PNG LNG, potential expansion and oil operations

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Implementing core strategies from previous strategic reviews has delivered significant share price appreciation…

10

Acquisition of ChevronTexaco’s

PNG assets.Assume

Operatorship

Manage transition to PNG LNG Project

PNG LNG FID

PNG LNG production

commencesPRL 15

acquisition

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

Sh

are

Pri

ce (

A$)

2002 StrategicReview

2010 StrategicReview

2007 StrategicReview

Page 6: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

…and total shareholder return (TSR) outperformance relative to ASX 200 Energy/ASX 200 and energy peers

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 11

4.139.2

11.6

73.3

-7.1

23.8

-17.1

192.7

-0.3

36.73.9

180.4

4.2

60.042.3

592.3

-60

40

140

240

340

440

540

640

% T

SR

Median TSR ASX200

Median TSR ASX200 Energy

Median OSH Peer Group

OSH TSR

1 YEAR 3 YEAR 5 YEAR 10 YEARSource: Orientcap

Relative TSR to 30 September 2014

Recent relative performance

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 12

Market Capitalisation changes since June 2014 peak

Source: Bloomberg

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Strong safety performance has been key component in delivering superior returns

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 13

7.07.3

5.2

6.3

6.8

6.0

5.2

4.74.9

4.7

2.4 2.32.1 2.0

1.2

2.0

1.9

2.62.5

1.55

3.9

3.12.9

2.7

2.11.8

1.7

1.8 1.71.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q 14

TR

I/1,0

00,0

00 H

ou

rs

APPEA

OSH

OGP

Total Recordable Injury Rate of 1.55 for nine months to 30 September 2014

2014 Strategic Review Process

» Multi-disciplined internal team seconded for six months to undertake Strategic Review

» Range of external consultants also utilised – provided extensive data and reports:

– Corporate Strategy, Product Pricing, Benchmarking and Capital Management : Morgan Stanley, FACTS Global Energy (FGE)

– Development Technology and Capability: Merlin Advisors, Helmsman International

– Operations Technology and Capability: Wood Mackenzie, Genesis Oil and Gas Consulting, Schlumberger

– Exploration and New Ventures Assessment: Wood Mackenzie, ISIS Petroleum Consultants

– People and Capability: Wood Mackenzie, Litmus Group, Helmsman International

– Country Strategy: Evello Partners (power)

» Process driven by Board and Executive Management Team with final oversight by Board

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 14

Page 8: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Key strategic questions

» Review addressed the following key strategic questions:

– Is top-quartile performance the relevant metric for Oil Search to target over next 5 years?

– What is potential value of existing assets and opportunities?

– Is a broader international portfolio necessary to meet value return objectives?

– What is optimal capital management plan?

– What country and people strategies are required to deliver return expectations?

» Survey undertaken of Top 30 shareholders to seek input, augmenting

broader shareholder meetings and engagement

» Consistent message of need for value growth and prudent capital

management

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 15

Key findings

16

» OSH has unprecedented platform for growth in PNG:

– Commercialisation of gas within existing PNG portfolio has potential to drive top quartile performance for next five years

– Sufficient discovered gas in PNG to support at least two, and possibly three, LNG expansion trains

– Significant additional exploration upside

» OSH’s core competency is operating in developing countries, in particular PNG:

– Significant competitive advantage, unrivalled expertise and experience

» High returning growth opportunities in PNG mitigate immediate requirement to expand internationally unless outstanding opportunities arise

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

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Key findings cont.

17

» Outlook for energy industry remains attractive, with ongoing

growth in Asia-Pacific LNG demand

» OSH business is robust in lower oil price environment

» Focus to be maintained on delivering shareholder value,

underscored by investment discipline

» Based on cash flow forecasts, OSH can support both high

returning growth initiatives and pay material dividend stream to

shareholders

» Organisational restructure underway to ensure capabilities to

deliver next phase of growth and build capacity, especially in

PNG

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 18

» Exploration spend, dividend and buy-backs under real pressure below US$80/bbl

Upstream portfolio only, including development, financing and all other costs. Dividend and buy-back estimates allocated in proportion between business segments, upstream share only shown. Assumes equity financing for all projects.

Source: Oil Search and Wood Mackenzie. Company names removed.

Page 10: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

To generate top quartile returns for shareholders through excellence in socially responsible oil and gas exploration and production

Vision

» Oil Search is committed to ongoing delivery of top quartile returns to

shareholders

» Also committed to continuing to operate in a socially responsible manner

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 19

Vision

Objective and Strategies

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 20

Sustain and optimise oil and gas assets through safe and reliable operations

Commercialise additional LNG trains resourced from NW Highlands and Gulf hubs

Explore for and appraise high value oil and gas accumulations in PNG and progress high value global new venture opportunities

Maintain Oil Search as a leading corporate citizen in PNG. Protect value and enable growth by mitigating risks and promoting a stable operating environment

Optimise capital and liquidity management to support investment and reward shareholders

Enhance organisational capabilities to deliver our strategic commitments

Achieve top quartile value growth performance versus peer group over next five years, by pursuing following strategies:

Objective

Optimise Value of Existing

Assets

Commercialise Gas in PNG

Pursue High Value

Opportunities

Lead PNG Sustainability

Optimise Capital Management

Enhance Organisational

Capability

Page 11: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Cash Flow Priorities

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 21

Available CashflowsAfter scheduled debt servicing, sustaining capital expenditure and commitments

DividendsPayment in accordance with new dividend policy

Growth Capital Investment ILNG expansion

Growth Capital Investment IIExploration, New Ventures, M&A

Surplus CapitalReturn to Shareholders:

- Share Buy-Backs, Special Dividends

External Environment

Section 3

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 22

Matt KayEGM, Strategy and Commercial

Page 12: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Predictions of softer Brent crude prices have arrived sooner than expected

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

US

$/b

bl

Wood Mackenzie

FGE

Brokers Consensus

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 23

Nominal Brent oil price outlook

Global LNG market balanced through to 2030

» Globally, relatively tight LNG market conditions likely to last for next 2-3 years.

» After 2017, market may soften due to new supplies from Australia and US. Further out, Canadian, Russian

and East African projects may add to supplies.

» Overall, global LNG market expected to be reasonably balanced up to 2030

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 24

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

mm

t

World Liquefaction Capacity and LNG Demand

SpeculativePlannedUnder ConstructionIn OperationWorld LNG Demand

Source: FGE report for OSH, July 2014

Page 13: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Asian and Middle East LNG demand nearly doubles by 2030

» Incremental demand in Asia will be driven primarily by China and India

» Demand from Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia will further prop regional demand

» Philippines, Pakistan and Vietnam may emerge as potential buyers

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 25

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

mm

t

Others*

Saudi Arabia

Bahrain

Kuwait

UAE

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

Singapore

China

India

Taiwan

South Korea

Japan

Source: FGE report for OSH, July 2014

*Capacity per Department of Energy authorization to Free Trade Agreement countries, in addition to capacities under construction**Project partners’ plan includes expansion up to 50 mmtpa

New LNG Suppliers….

26

CanadaAnnounced >160 mmtpa

RussiaAnnounced 63.9 mmtpa

MozambiqueAnnounced 20 mmtpa**

USUnder Construction ~20 mmtpa

Announced >290 mmtpa*

AustralasiaUnder Construction 68.1 mmtpa

Planned 3.2 mmtpa

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

PNGPlanned >10 mmtpa

MediterraneanPlanned >15 mmtpa

Source: Goldman Sachs, FGE

Page 14: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

….but how much will come to market??

27

Other LNG proposed projects (not shown in the diagram above) have not progressed beyond conceptual – Bonaparte FLNG, Cash/Maple FLNG, Scarborough FLNG, Darwin Expansion

Browse (JPP)

Browse FLNG1

Gorgon Train 4

Queensland Curtis LNG Train 3

GLNG Train 3

Arrow LNG

APLNG Train 3

APLNG Train 2

Sunrise FLNG

Pluto Expansion Train 2

Pluto Expansion Train 3

Source: Oil Search and Wood Mackenzie

X

XX

X

X

Lines indicates when FID date first proposed and WM current view

Operator target FID date - Project cancelled

FID taken

X FID date continuing to drift

(2 Train greenfield development)

28

Forecasters predict LNG prices may correct

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 28

Source: FGE report, September 2014

» 2016 potential low point for oil price (2015 now likely)

» 2018 potential low point for delivered LNG prices in long term contracts

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

US

$/m

mB

tu

Asian LNG Price (Long-Term Contracts)* Crude Oil Parity (JCC)

Delivery Time (LT)

Negotiation Period

*Nominal prices converted from real, expected price four years after negotiation period

Page 15: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Oil vs Henry Hub indexation - which is better?

» Lower case (Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 2014 Outlook) and higher case (FGE Outlook) for Henry Hub prices used as basis of hub-linked LNG contract prices when comparing oil-indexed contracts and hub-indexed LNG prices delivered to Asia

» Henry Hub-linked contracts not necessarily cheaper but offer greater flexibility in non-pricing terms

US

$/m

mB

tu

Estimated prices delivered to Asia, assuming P(LNG) = 123% x HH = 6EIA scenario is based on AEO2014 Early Release

**Based on FGE oil price forecast

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Range to consider for HH-linked contracts

delivered to Asia

HH (FGE Scenario)*

HH (EIA Scenario)*

Asian Long‐Term LNG Contract Price at Time of Delivery**

* Prices are real

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 29

Source: FGE report for OSH, July 2014

Projected oil- and Henry Hub-linked LNG Prices delivered to Asia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

US UK/EU Canada Australia Mozambique

US

$/m

mB

tu

**Based on FGE scenarios for Henry Hub, NBP, slope indexation, and/or shipping costs.*Japan (Chiba) used as proxy for Asia Pacific

Delivered prices expected to settle at US$12-14/mmBtu at destination…regardless of indexation

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review Investor Seminar - 23 October 2014 30

Source: FGE report for OSH, July 2014

Forecast landed LNG Price in 2020 to Northeast Asia* from various sources**

Page 16: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

PNG LNG competitive versus other recent LNG projects in Australia

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 31

Source: Oil Search and Wood Mackenzie, Q3 2014, Project names removed

US

$/m

mB

tu

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

A B C D E F G H I PNG LNG J

Australasian LNG plant break-even costs

LNG Projects recently commissioned, or under development, in Australasia

Most companies require US$80/bbl to fund development costs

» Mid-Caps leveraged to development projects; Majors spend intensity typically lower

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 32

Upstream portfolio only, including development, financing and all other costs, but excluding exploration, dividends and share buybacks. Assumes equity financing for all projects.

Source: Oil Search and Wood Mackenzie. Company names removed.

Page 17: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

» Conventional LNG projects with no new technology utilised in development

» Substantial certified reserves base with high heating value, suitable for Asian reticulation network

» High liquids, enhancing economics

» Onshore location with existing infrastructure base from oil and LNG developments

» Located close to growing Asian LNG markets

» Stable fiscal regime with strong Government support

» Aligned Joint Ventures. Highly respected Operators able to deliver and operate major projects, augmented by OSH’s local knowledge

» LNG from PNG provides attractive returns and is robust to product price movements

33

LNG from PNG has competitive advantages

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 33

Image courtesy ExxonMobil

Summary

» Softening global oil price but support for long term floor

~US$90/bbl

» Long term demand growth for energy from Asia still

strong, especially for LNG

» Asia Pacific LNG price base expected to be US$12-

14/mmBtu for 2020 -2025 supply

» PNG is in highly competitive position to capture LNG

markets

» LNG in PNG provides material returns and is robust to

product price movements

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 34

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Oil Search’s capabilities and

competencies

Section 4

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 35

Matt KayEGM, Strategy and Commercial

OSH’s competitive advantage in PNG

» Strategic Review has concluded OSH should focus on delivering high returning projects from existing assets in PNG over next five years

» Supported by capabilities and competencies integral to historic and future success:

– Unrivalled operating experience in PNG

– Strong PNG Government and regulator relations

– Deep-rooted community affairs/landholder relations

– PNG basin mastery

– Proven success optimising production from mature oil fields

» Excellent in-country track record of social responsibility and sustainable development – part of our DNA

» Managing PNG country issues is critical to protecting OSH value, driving growth and maintaining social licence to operate

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 36

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85 years expertise operating in PNG

» Unrivalled experience operating in PNG – government, regulators, landowners, geology, supply chain

» Positive corporate reputation locally – leading corporate citizen, key member of PNG society, second largest health provider (one of only two private sector managers worldwide of Global Fund programmes)

» Well developed processes of community benefits, generating goodwill, ensuring stable workforce and maintaining business continuity

» Local content approach and sustainable development embedded throughout operations

» Negligible disruptions to production relating to community unrest since commencing operatorship in 2003

» Dynamic operating environment – social understanding more important than ever

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 37

Strong PNG government and community relations» Close working relationship with all levels of government

(national, provincial, local) and with local communities

» Key role in supporting Government delivery of PNG LNG Project benefits to project impacted communities

» PNG Government has 10% direct ownership in OSH, 19.6% interest in PNG LNG Project – strong alignment of interests

» Committed to employing and developing local people and businesses. Results in:

– Improved communication with local communities

– Sustainable livelihood development

– Improved corporate reputation locally and with shareholders, peers, financiers

– Enhanced social licence to operate

» Three additional LNG trains have potential to provide ~US$40bn of taxes and levies to PNG Government and landowners

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 38

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PNG basin mastery and production optimisation from mature oil fields

» Unrivalled understanding of PNG’s geologically complex and rugged Highlands region:

– Superior fold belt geology expertise

– Leveraged to identify high-value opportunities

– Manage complex drilling operations

» Extensive knowledge and capability of supply chain and infrastructure management in PNG

» Proven success in optimising production from mature oil fields

» Experience in gas commercialisation

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 39

» Since taking over operatorship in 2003, OSH and JV partners have drilled +70% wells drilled in PNG

40

Industry leading drilling expertise in PNG’s remote and challenging terrains

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Number of wells drilled in PNG

Total OSH and Related JVPs

Total Rest of Industry

OSH as operator

Page 21: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Summary

» 85 years experience in PNG

» Excellent in-country track record and social licence to operate – integral to OSH’s historic and future success

» Unparalleled experience working with PNG Government, landowners, regulators and communities

» Committed to community through workforce, Oil Search Health Foundation, benefits management and local infrastructure projects

» Extensive knowledge across fold belt geology, drilling, supply chain management, infrastructure development and operations in PNG

» Delivery of further three trains of LNG in PNG will create value for shareholders and ~US$40 billion of taxes and levies for PNG

» Skills developed in PNG are transferable to other regions

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 41

Optimise value of existing assets

Section 5

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 42

Paul CholakosEGM, PNG Operations

Page 22: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Sustain and optimise existing assets to drive value

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 43

» Strategic Review has confirmed OSH’s operating strategy to sustain and optimise value of PNG

operating assets through:

Value enhancement

Reliability of operations

Sustainability of operations for 30+

years

Optimisation and efficiency

» Debottlenecking of PNG LNG » Optimise operated production » Reduce OSH operated opex

» Delivery of PNG LNG obligations » Reduce unplanned downtime

» Life of field planning» Capabilities/capacity build

» Optimise logistics/supply chain» Optimise drilling performance» Synergies with PNG LNG

PNG LNG T1 + T2 – the new base business

» In first full year (2015), PNG LNG expected to add ~21 mmboe net to Oil Search production

– 18 mmboe LNG

– 3 mmboe liquids

» Project expected to produce +9 tcf gas and +200mmboe associated liquids (gross) over 30 year life:

– LNG component to remain broadly flat

» Four OSH-operated fields (Kutubu, Moran, Agogo, GobeMain) to supply ~20% of total Project gas (‘Associated Gas Fields’)

» Associated Gas field life extended by 30+ years, requiring ongoing sustainability of operations and facilities

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 44

Image courtesy ExxonMobil

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Debottlenecking offers potential for substantial incremental value

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 45

» Global benchmarks suggest 10-15% increase in capacity achievable through debottlenecking

» High value add – generally, minimal capex required

» OSH believes potential debottlenecking of PNG LNG T1 & T2 represents highest returning opportunity in its portfolio

Source: FACTS Global Energy

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Bontang(T1-T2)

Bontang(T3-T4)

Brunei LNG MalaysiaDua

Sakhalin NWS (T1-T3)

Bontang(T5)

Bontang(T6-T7)

AtlanticLNG (T1)

Bontang(T8)

Adgas

Reliability of OSH’s PNG operations integral to meeting PNG LNG obligations for next 30+ years

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 46

PNG LNG operator

Oil field operator

(OSH)

HGCP LNG export

OSH operations

“Kutubublend”

Associated Gas (AG)

field gas supply Liquids

exportCondensate

Crude

2

LNG plant

Plant operating life extended by 30+ years, supporting long-term planning in all aspects of operations

1

PL 2 system key support to PNG LNG

2Gross Oil and Gas Production from AG fields Gross PNG LNG Condensate and Crude through PL2 export system

mmboe

-

5

10

15

20Oil AG gas

mmboe

5

10

15

20Oil PNG LNG condensate

1

Page 24: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Proven success optimising production from mature oil fields

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 47

» Since taking over oil field operatorship in 2003, OSH has:

– Drilled 41 development wells with ~85% success rate

– Added +50mmbbls oil (gross) to 2P expected ultimate recoveries (+75mmbbls to 1P EUR)

» Achieved key 2010 objective of maintaining oil production broadly flat until first PNG LNG production

» As reservoirs mature, opportunities becoming smaller and more challenging

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Oil

Rat

e (B

op

d)

Kutubu SEG Wedge,Moran

Kutubu Agogo, Usano,Kutubu, Moran

Usano, Kutubu,Moran

Agogo,Moran

OSH as operatorDecline under

previous operator

OSH AddedValue

Forecast

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

mm

bo

e

Base oil

Hides GTE

Taza

PNG LNG condensate (6.9mtpa)

PNG LNG Gas (6.9mtpa)

» From 2014, PNG LNG (T1 + T2) will supplant oil as OSH’s base business

» Debottlenecking may provide additional upside

Production outlook – PNG base business

48

1. LNG sales products at outlet of plant, post fuel, flare and shrinkage2. Gas:oil conversion rate used in 2014 & 2015: 5,100 scf = 1 barrel of oil equivalent (prior years 6,000 scf/boe)3. Taza forecast includes 4 year EWT 2015-2018 only

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

18 – 20mmboe

Forecast

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Summary and Outlook

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 49

» Potential T1 & T2 debottlenecking is highest returning opportunity in

OSH’s portfolio

» Will continue to pursue production optimisation opportunities within

operated fields

» Operations extended by 30 years, requiring integrated asset planning

while meeting or exceeding PNG LNG delivery obligations

» Maintaining excellent safety record a key priority

Gas development

Section 6

50Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

Ian MunroEGM, Gas Development

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Strong platform for high value growth

» PNG LNG Project has delivered:

– Major infrastructure

– Government and landowner support

– Tier 1 LNG customers

– Financier confidence

» OSH played significant role in project execution and in ongoing operations

» Delivery of additional trains is common objective for industry, communities and Government

51Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

Images courtesy ExxonMobil

Significant LNG value to be delivered in PNG

» PNG has resources to deliver at least two expansion trains, underpinned by existing undeveloped resources, and third expansion train with modest exploration/appraisal success in current drilling programme

» Two key resource hubs, in which OSH holds strong positions, that will supply next phase of development:

– North Western Hub (P’nyang field)

– Gulf Hub (Elk/Antelope fields)

» Multiple exploration opportunities remain in both hubs

52Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

Images courtesy ExxonMobil

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>20 tcf of discovered gas in PNG of which only 9 tcf is under development

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 53

Papua New GuineaHides

Kutubu

Port Moresby

~6 tcf

~6 tcf

~1 tcf

<1 tcf

9 tcf

~1 tcf

PNG LNG Project dedicated 2P

reserves and 2C resources

Undeveloped (best estimate)

* OSH/other operator estimates** Cumulative numbers based on arithmetic sum of best estimate resource

…of which OSH has interests in >9tcf gross

54

»OSH well positioned to be lead gas aggregator in PNG:

– One of largest holders of undeveloped resource, with equity positions in major gas fields that will underpin expansion

»OSH participates in licences with total undeveloped resource of >9 tcf (P50) with OSH net resources of 3.1 tcf across 12 fields

»Material upside in P’nyang and other fields, based on recent evaluation

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

P'nyang Elk-Antelope Other fields

Cu

mu

lati

ve 2

C G

as R

eso

urc

e (t

cf)

2C G

as R

eso

urc

e (t

cf)

Gross 2CNet 2C (OSH)Cumulative Gross 2CCumulative Net 2C (OSH)

* OSH estimates** Cumulative numbers based on arithmetic sum of P50 resource

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Gas resource evaluation ongoing

» Key resource evaluation activities are ongoing. Will provide greater certainty through 2015 on development plans:

– Structural remapping and reservoir modelling based on information from Hides development wells will help constrain gas volumes

– Hides F1 Deep well – material exploration target underlying Hides field, recently commenced drilling

– P’nyang evaluation ongoing plus possible further drilling to determine upside

– Antelope 4 and 5 appraisal wells – will establish whether resource can underpin two trains. Possible further drilling (Antelope 6) to assess upside

– Antelope Deep exploration well – planning underway for potential 2015 spud, high potential play

» PRL 15 arbitration outcome expected 1Q15, important for development cooperation and timing

55

Hides F1 Deep

Antelope 4Antelope 5Antelope 6* Antelope Deep*

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

Evaluation of Hides development wells

P’nyang reserve evaluation Further drilling*

* Subject to JV approval

Resource requirements for next phase of LNG development» Discovered gas sufficient for at least two additional trains and

potentially three with modest exploration/appraisal success:

– One NW Hub train underpinned by development of P’nyang and foundation project/third party gas

– One/two LNG trains from PRL 15

» NW Hub train:

– OSH estimates ~2 tcf 1P (4 tcf 2P) required to underpin development decision

– Expansion is commercially attractive even based on shorter duration LNG contracts

» Gulf Hub train - economics also attractive:

– OSH assessment:

• ~ 3 tcf 2P for 1 PNG LNG-sized (3.45 mmtpa) train, ~7 tcf 2P for 2 trains

• ~ 5 tcf 2P for 5 mmtpa train

» Targeting final investment decisions by end 2016, with progressive delivery of additional trains 2019 – 2022

» Train sizing and start-up dates dependent on extent of cooperation

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 56

Image courtesy ExxonMobil

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Maximising value of expansion trains» PNG can learn from other global LNG developments and

expansions

» Co-located brownfield projects will reduce investment, accelerate schedule and maximise project economics for all stakeholders:

– Lower financing costs and attractive investment profile

– Sustainable employment profile

– Higher and accelerated government tax take, gas for local market

– Reduced environmental footprint

» Potential to increase value through pre-investment and cooperation:

– Early understanding of, and investment in, upstream infrastructure and pre-investment in key elements of downstream facilities

– Achieve alignment with PNG Government and joint venturers to optimise schedule

» ~US$3 billion of potential capital cost savings and ~two years of production acceleration

57

Insert photo

Image courtesy ExxonMobil

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

OSH’s role in future developments» Unique opportunity over next 12 months to drive optimal

development plan, through promoting cooperation agenda:

– Extensive equity interests spanning sources of expansion gas

– Alignment with PNG Government

» Leverage OSH’s unique local knowledge and PNG LNG experience through role in upstream development:

– OSH operates Associated Gas Fields, which contribute ~20% of PNG LNG Project gas as well as liquids export system

– Successfully delivered key components of PNG LNG infrastructure

– Key role supporting PNG LNG operator in Government and landowner negotiations

» Extensive exploration portfolio may supply additional trains or extend plateau

58

Image courtesy ExxonMobil

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

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Summary

» Undeveloped gas in existing portfolio can support at least two additional LNG trains in PNG. With modest exploration/appraisal success during 2015, third additional train possible

» Integrating future projects will add value for all stakeholders

» OSH intends to be a leader in next phase of development, working closely with Government, partners and communities

» Significant longer term resource and train upside through exploration

59Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

Image courtesy ExxonMobil

Exploration and new ventures

Section 7

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 60

Better Picture Here

Julian FowlesEGM, Exploration and Business Development

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Exploration remains fundamental to OSH growth

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 61

» Renewed focus on resource replacement, given step change in production and resource conversion with PNG LNG Project start-up

» Exploration programmes to target 150% resource replacement (5 year rolling average)

» Running room in PNG to support gas development beyond trains 3, 4 and 5

» Development of international exploration portfolio to support longer term growth

Exploration strategy – find and appraise high value oil and gas accumulations

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 62

» Support PNG gas growth

» Focus on high value liquids from international portfolio

» Delivered through:

– Refreshing PNG exploration inventory with high impact gas opportunities

– Actively drilling PNG portfolio to cream remaining active play segments and test best emerging play opportunities

– International assets - pursue material, high-returning liquids opportunities

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Proven exploration performance

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 63

» OSH has track record of success in PNG and MENA across range of geological environments

» Exploration look-back analysis 2003-2013:

– Net expenditure of nearly US$1.5bn

– Drilled 59 wells

– Discovered ~440 mmboe net to OSH

– Commercial Success Rates:

• Wildcat drilling - 21%

• Near-field exploration - 75%

– Unit Finding Cost ~US$3.31 per boe

Image courtesy ExxonMobil

Planned PNG exploration activities

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 64

» Focus on proving high impact gas resources to drive further LNG development:

– Accelerated data acquisition to maintain prospect portfolio

– ‘Game changer’ campaign focused on large foldbeltprospects

» Active programme underway:

– Multi-rig drilling programme through to end 2016

– Continued seismic data acquisition to de-risk leads and prospects

» Net annual PNG spend in 2015-2016 of ~US$350m (~50:50 exploration and appraisal activities)

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Cu

mu

lati

ve D

isco

vere

d P

50

Rec

ove

rab

le

Vo

lum

e (m

mb

oe)

Well Number

• Hides is largest field found to date• Future field sizes likely smaller but still

material

Hides

Antelope

Based on OSH estimates

PNG exploration running room

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 65

» Internal and external assessments indicate only half of PNG’s full resource potential has been discovered

» Significant remaining gas potential in Highlands and Gulf areas

~10bnboe

PNG Resource Base

Producing Fields

Discovered UndevelopedResources

Exploration Yet-to-Find

(full potential)

YTF = USGS P50 & IHS Estimates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

05

01

00

15

02

00

25

03

00

35

04

00

45

05

00

55

06

00

65

07

00

75

08

00

85

09

00

95

01

00

0

Fre

qu

ency

Size (mmboe)

Field Size Distribution

Hid

es

Ant

elop

e

Field count = 41

* OSH estimates** Cumulative numbers based on arithmetic sum of P50 resource

11 tcf unrisked potential across NW Hub

» NW Hub contains mix of undeveloped resource plus material running room:

‒ Lead inventory currently contains ~11 tcf unrisked, 1.5 tcf on risked basis

‒ Potential exploration targets with average prospective pool sizes in 700bcf range

‒ Significant data acquisition required to mature/de-risk portfolio

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 66

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Cumulative gas resource potential 

(tcf)

Best estim

ate gas resource 

potential (tcf)

11 tcf

1.5 tcf

Risked volumes expected to increase with data acquisition

RISKED

UN

RIS

KE

D

RIS

KE

D

* OSH estimates** Cumulative numbers based on arithmetic sum of best estimate resource

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OSH well positioned to explore PNG’s full potential

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 67

» Oil Search has strong acreage position

» Continue to expand position in best play fairways:

– Recent entries into PPL 269, 402 & 464 provide further access to NW foldbeltpotential*

– PRL15 acquisition - sweet-spot for emerging carbonate play

» New infrastructure continues to open up new areas to exploration

* Subject to Govt approvals

Papua New GuineaHides

Kutubu

Port Moresby

PNG - cream proven plays, test best emerging plays

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

» Continue to drill out lower risk proven plays:

– Hanging walls

– Forelimbs

» Test high impact emerging plays:

– Highlands Footwall

– Hides Deep

– Antelope Deep*

» Preference for opportunities in close proximity to existing infrastructure

» Mananda: updating resource evaluation and implications for field development given complexity evident in Mananda 7

Hanging wall

Forelimb

Footwall

1

2

3

4

*Subject to JV approvals

Intra-thrust “rafted reef play”: Antelope

68

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International exploration

» International focus:

– Appraising high potential OSH operated Taza oil discovery

– Measured pursuit of material, high returning liquids-prone opportunities, with long term running room

» Leverage strong regional relationships and skills base to further develop focused international portfolio

» Pace dependent on availability of high reward opportunities relative to timing of PNG capital commitments

69

Tunis ErbilSulaymaniyah

Sana'a

TUNISIAIRAQ

KRI

YEMEN

TajerouineTaza

Block 7

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

Comprehensive appraisal of Taza

70

» 2014-15 focus on defining field size and maximising value

» Appraisal programme:

» >600km2 of 3D seismic (includes SE Jambur lead) ~70% complete

» Taza 2 – oil proven 10km NW of Taza 1: testing 4Q14/1Q15

» Taza 3 – to prove SE extent, preparing to spud

» Taza 4 – to test highly fractured zones on West flank, 2Q15

» Further drilling dependent on results

» Extended Well Test planned in mid-2015

» Declaration of Commerciality expected 4Q15

SE Jambur Lead

Pulkhana

Jambur Kor Mor

Taza 3

Taza 2

Potential Taza 5

Taza 4Proposed

TazaTaza 1ST2

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

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Summary» Significant exploration upside remains in PNG, with only half of PNG’s

estimated full potential of 10 bnboe discovered so far

» Oil Search holds positions in best play fairways

» Aim to support PNG gas growth through drilling high impact wells through 2015-2016

» Maximise value of existing international portfolio

» New Ventures will focus on:

– PNG growth opportunities

– International exploration/appraisal oil assets

– Any new entries will be disciplined and assessed against high returning PNG growth assets

» Exploration programmes targeting 150% resource replacement (5 year rolling average)

» Total exploration and appraisal budget (PNG & international) for 2015–2016 of US$350-450m pa

– Spend focus is in PNG with clear short and medium term programme

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 71

PNG sustainability

Section 8

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 72

Latest Speaker Picture Here

Peter BottenManaging Director

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PNG Sustainability

» Strategic Review highlights majority of OSH value growth over next 5-7 years will come from assets in PNG

» Social responsibility, sustainable development and enduring government and community relationships –integral to historic and future success

» Dynamic social environment, combined with significant economic changes, requires active management

» Managing PNG country issues critical to preserving OSH value, generating growth and maintaining our social licence to operate

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 73

Working collaboratively with Government to lead development of PNG’s oil and gas sector

» Expectations within PNG for basic service delivery – schools, hospitals, roads, power etc – has never been higher

» Capacity of National and Provincial Governments to deliver core services are challenged

» Important that OSH plays a role to facilitate and helps augment Government capacity to deliver services critical to maintaining stable operating environment

» OSH committed to playing lead role in:

– Ensuring Government is aligned to support delivery of next two/three LNG trains

– Supporting institutional capacity building within Department of Petroleum and Energy, Department of Environment and Conservation, Treasury, Planning, provincial and local level governments

– Encouraging transparent governance framework

– Proactively contributing to current tax review process

– Proactively engaging with state and key agencies to ensure fiscal and regulatory regime stability

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 74

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» Delivery of PNG LNG benefits commitments, as agreed in Umbrella Benefits Sharing Agreement, critical for project stability, to avoid social unrest and operational disruptions

» Improved governance required for distribution of an estimated >K110 billion1 (>US$40 billion) total cash flow to PNG Government and landowners over 30-year life*

» OSH to assist the operator, ExxonMobil PNG, using its Government and landowner relationships

» Continue to promote transparency in benefits distribution:

– EITI application

– Sovereign Wealth Fund

– Publish where benefits are paid, how much, to whom

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 75

Ensure PNG LNG benefits commitments are delivered

*PNG LNG Economic Impact Study, ACIL Tasman, April 2009

Facilitate delivery of key infrastructure projects » OSH manages >US$200m of infrastructure projects on behalf of

Government, largely through National Infrastructure Tax Credit Scheme (NITCS). Projects funded by State and project-managed by OSH, leveraging our core skills

» Has proven to be good way to ensure projects are delivered in transparent and timely manner

» OSH committed to continuing this work, to deliver Government nominated and funded key infrastructure projects

» Implement transparent model to deliver projects, based on Shared Responsibility Model (partnership between OSH, ExxonMobil, Government and project impacted communities)

» Numerous community based programmes being delivered:

– Churches, water supply, agricultural programmes etc

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 76

Marea Haus

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Strategic sustainable development and social responsibility » OSH has made significant contribution to health outcomes for staff and

communities over past 10 years:

– Major provider of healthcare across operating areas in PNG

– Working with National and Provincial Authorities to deliver:

• HIV Aids management programmes

• Child and maternal health initiatives

• Malaria eradication and control

• Medical services

– Oil Search Health Foundation supported by external agencies including Global Fund, DFAT, Asian Development Bank, Gates Foundation etc

» OSH reviewing expansion of Foundation, with long-term commitment seeking transformational change

» Projects under review include:

– Further health programmes addressing TB, HIV, cervical cancer

– Providing PNG women with means to break cycle of gender-based violence

– Programmes for women’s empowerment

– Developing PNG through building next generation of leaders

» Feasibility work now underway, significant institutional support

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 77

Insert photo of health fund activities

Delivery of power solutions

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 78

» Provision of power solutions in PNG an emerging political and social issue:

– Electricity penetration is one of lowest in world. ~6% of population have access to delivered power

– Electricity prices among highest in world, poor unreliable service a major constraint on industry development

» OSH reviewing a number of power solutions including:

– Small scale LNG for Highlands and remote power

– Gas generation from peripheral fields

– Biomass project for northern power grid

» Focused on generation, helps manage Domestic Market Obligation, uses smaller peripheral gas fields

» Low capital costs, small but important contribution to profits

0102030405060708090

100

%

% of Population with Access to Power (2011)

Source: World Bank, Evello Consulting

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Summary

» OSH’s present and future value tied to preserving a stable operating environment in PNG

» Social responsibility and sustainable development remain embedded in our core values

» OSH has a comprehensive series of social programmes to help government and communities address social and economic challenges

» Continue to make a significant contribution to PNG society across infrastructure, education and health

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 79

Organisational structure

Section 9

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 80

Latest Speaker Picture Here

Peter BottenManaging Director

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Organisational structure to deliver

» Strategic Review has highlighted importance of PNG to OSH’s future value growth

» Number of organisational changes will take place, to manage programmes needed to deliver this

growth

» Several senior managers will be based in PNG:

– Executive General Manager for PNG Assets

– Senior Gas and Commercial executives

– Operations and Development executives

» Will deliver significant management depth to address key challenges in-country and understanding

of in-country issues

» Will assist development of deeper relationships with key PNG stakeholders

» Will facilitate senior management development and succession planning

» Board has appointed consultant to undertake gap analysis and help steer succession planning

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 81

Capital Management

Section 10

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 82

Latest Speaker Picture Here

Stephen GardinerChief Financial Officer

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Financial and capital management

» In light of commencement of cash flows from PNG LNG Project, OSH’s financial

and capital management policies were major component of Strategic Review

» Key objective is to ensure all future growth opportunities can be fully funded and

financial flexibility maintained while also sharing profits from PNG LNG Project with

shareholders

» Gearing and liquidity to be conservatively managed to ensure all future investment

commitments can be prudently met

» Based on analysis, OSH is in fortunate position to be able to support growth

projects as well as pay dividends in range of 35%-50% of core net profit after tax*

» New dividend policy to be implemented from final 2014 dividend

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 83

*excludes any material one-off adjustments to income

Funding to support growth projects

» Anticipate that future LNG trains in PNG will be funded utilising project financing, MENA growth from internal funding sources (cash and corporate borrowings):

– Project finance assumes conservative 60:40 debt:equity (70:30 for PNG LNG Project)

» Consideration now being given to key project finance issues:

– Timing for raising project financing for ExxonMobil-led led Highlands train may be similar to timing of Total-led PRL 15 train. Will require co-ordination to minimise logistical challenges as well as addressing potential funding capacity issues in debt markets

– OSH to maintain strong forecast liquidity profile and work with project operators to commence early discussions with potential LNG project lenders, to deliver best outcome

» Investment hurdle rate well above WACC

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 84

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Balance sheet and cashflows to be optimised to secure cost effective financing

» Balance sheet to be conservatively managed to ensure all future growth opportunities can be prudently funded while accommodating dividend distributions in accordance with new dividend policy

» Maintenance of committed undrawn credit lines and surplus cash to ensure immediate access to cost effective funds and meet project completion guarantor requirements

» OSH will not seek credit rating at present:

– OSH rating capped by PNG country rating of B+. Country sovereign risk ratings will not be re-visited by rating agencies until at least 2 – 3 years post PNG LNG start up.

– Corporate credit rating less relevant when seeking project finance, particularly if rating is sub investment grade

– Unlikely to deliver debt pricing benefits

– Will continue to monitor

» No hard gearing target but expect gearing not to materially exceed 30 June 2014 level (~ 45%)

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 85

Application of free cash-flow, based on three LNG train development 2015 – 2019

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 86

PNG International

Allocation of cash generated PNG vs International Capex Splits

» Expect to generate ~US$1.5bn pa in operating cash flow before interest over next five years*

» OSH has low sustaining capex requirements, <US$650m over 5 year period (2015-2019)

» OSH can fully fund its growth strategy as well as provide significant dividends under three train expansion case

* Based on flat Brent oil price of US$90/bbl

2015-19Operating

Cashflow preinterest

Sustainingcapex

Net interest Debtrepayment

Dividend Availablecashflow

Debtdrawdown

Growth Capex

US

$M

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Investment, based on three LNG train development 2015 – 2019

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 87

Investment allocation

PNG Gas Development

PNG Appraisal

MENA Appraisal

PNG Exploration

MENA Exploration

PNG LNG (T1 + T2)

PNG Oil

Other

» Investment spend being directed primarily to business expansion

» Of total expenditures, ~20% to be spent on appraisal and ~24% on exploration. Primary focus of exploration is on finding gas in PNG for LNG expansion beyond third train and international oil opportunities

OSH’s new capital management policy

» Review process included:

– Extensive cashflow / earnings scenario analysis. Stress tested for:

• Two/three LNG trains plus other growth opportunities such as Taza

• Quantum and phasing of capital spend

• Opex

• Oil price volatility

– Review of energy sector dividend policies

– Survey of major shareholders

» Oil Search to adopt a proportional dividend policy, commencing with 2014 final dividend

– Target dividend payout ratio of 35% – 50% of core net profit after tax*

– Payout ratio will be reviewed in event of substantial rise or fall in oil prices

– Dividend reinvestment plan to be suspended, commencing with 2014 final dividend

» Cash surplus to future needs will be returned to shareholders in form of special dividends or share buy-backs, depending on relative value outcomes for shareholders

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 88

*excludes any material one-off adjustments to income

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Summary and Conclusions

Section 11

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 89

Latest Speaker Picture Here

Peter BottenManaging Director

Key strategic questions answered

» Is top-quartile performance the relevant metric for Oil Search to

target over next 5 years?

– Existing portfolio provides opportunity to generate top quartile returns

– Selective high value exploration and new ventures will add to long-term

growth

– Top quartile TSR is an appropriate target

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 90

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Key strategic questions answered

» What is potential value of existing assets?

– Substantial remaining value within existing portfolio in PNG, where we

have unparalleled operating experience and expertise

– Potential for T1 & 2 debottlenecking – high value opportunity

– Sufficient discovered gas in PNG to underpin at least two and possibly

three further LNG trains

– Potential to double production from 2015 levels by early next decade

– Significant additional exploration potential

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 91

Key strategic questions answered

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 92

» Is an international portfolio necessary to meet value return

objectives?

– No immediate need for significant step-out, given substantial growth opportunities in PNG. However, given long lead times, seek to build in a measured way a high value, oil focused exploration portfolio of material international opportunities to contribute post 2020

– Leverage strong regional relationships and skill base within and outside of PNG

– Pace dependent on availability of high returning value-add opportunities and PNG capital commitments

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Key strategic questions answered

» What is optimal capital management plan?

– Wish to share material increase in profitability with shareholders

– OSH to adopt proportional dividend policy, commencing with 2014 final

dividend:

• Target dividend payout ratio of 35% – 50% of core net profit after tax

• Payout ratio will be reviewed in the event of substantial rise or fall in oil

prices

• Dividend reinvestment plan to be suspended

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 93

Execution and delivery

» Structured and disciplined process to execute and monitor delivery of

strategic objectives:

– Each strategy has range of initiatives underpinning delivery

– Clear accountability of strategy delivery defined with executive team

– Execution plans and timelines being put in place

» Governance in place at executive and Board level:

– Monthly review against progress of key annual deliverables

– Annual strategy update to assess overall progress against strategic outcomes

» Company and individuals will be assessed against delivery of initiatives:

– Will be linked to incentive plans

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 94

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OSH has potential to provide material production growth as well as dividends

95Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014

» Possible production growth profile

1 LNG sales products at outlet of plant, post fuel, flare and shrinkage2 Oil forecast assumes successful development drilling in 2014/153 Gas:oil conversion rate used in 2014 & 2015: 5,100 scf = 1 barrel of oil equivalent for PNG

LNG. No debottlenecking shown4 Taza forecast includes 4 year EWT 2015-2018 only

mm

boe

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Base oil + Hides GTE PNG LNG (T1+T2)

North Western LNG Gulf LNG

Taza » OSH has potential to deliver both material growth and dividends

» Debottlenecking and Taza full field development could add further production uplift

» Dividend profile dependent on NPAT

» Indicative dividend profile

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Key milestones 2014-15

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 96Appraisal/development Exploration *Subject to JV approvals

2014 2015Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

HighlandsBasedActivity

ExternalFactors 

GulfBasedActivity

International

Complete Taza appraisal programme (Test Taza 2, 3D seismic, drill Taza 3, 4, EPT)Taza

Yemen

Tunisia

PNG LNGFinancial

Completion

Increasing resourcecertainty

Hides Certification

Antelope 4

Ongoing P’nyang development activity, possible drilling*

Ongoing Elk/Antelope development activity

PRL 3 PDLA

Declaration ofCommerciality

Antelope 5

PRL 15ArbitrationResult

PNG LNG Trains 1 & 2 Debottlenecking studies

Licence expiry

Licence expiry

Antelope Deep*Antelope 6*

Hides F1 Deep

Angore development x 2

Page 49: 2014 Strategic Review - Home - Oil Search · Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 Two thirds of IOCs need US$90/bbl to cover spend and distributions Oil Search 2014

Summary» Board has endorsed strategic objectives and OSH’s vision:

– Generate top quartile returns for shareholders through excellence in socially responsible oil and gas exploration and

production

» Review has confirmed OSH has high-returning growth opportunities in PNG, with enough gas in existing

portfolio to support at least two and, with modest drilling success, three additional LNG trains:

– Potential to double production again between 2015 and early 2020s and drive continued top quartile performance

» Significant remaining exploration upside in PNG

» Measured pursuit of high returning oil opportunities internationally

» Expansion of PNG sustainability programmes

» Organisational changes to address PNG relationships, structured succession planning

» Sufficient funding available for both growth and dividends

OSH IN BEST POSITION IN ITS 85 YEAR HISTORY

Oil Search 2014 Strategic Review - 23 October 2014 97

Oil Search LimitedARBN 055 079 868

Investor Seminar

Thank you

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