2014 voter motivation landscape

Presented by

election success. In 2014, campaigns will move beyond their limited view of voters based on age, gender, geography and history. Instead, they will employ deep understanding of the individual issue positions and priorities that drive voter behavior.

To this end, Resonate has assembled the largest ever sample of voter motivations and defined the ten key voter segments that will determine the outcome on Election Day.

In creating the 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape, Resonate segmented the voter base using 8,053 proprietary surveys. The methodology used was a k-means cluster analysis, a statistical process that clusters survey respondents into groups where they are similar to each other across multiple issue positions. Resonate used 51 different issue positions, spanning 12 categories of interest (such as income/wealth taxes, entitlement programs, traditional and alternative fuels, fiscal regulation, etc.) to create these voter segments.

2 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape

The 2012 Political Cycle firmly established the use of bigdata and analytics as crucial to

Resonate began analysis project to rethink segmentation of the electorate ahead of 2014 cycle. Research from Q3 & Q4 2013 containing our comprehensive battery of political questions: 51 issue positions & engagement. The result was a substantially greater sample size:

Resonate’s broader sample enables more granular segmentation anddetailed analysis of demographic groups and ideological sub-segments.


Pew 2011 Study“Political Topology”

Resonate 2014“Voter Motivation Landscape”

Esquire & NBC2013 Study of

registered voters

2,410 3,029

8,053

Comparison in Sample Size

The 2014 Voter Motivation Segments

35% 36% 29%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE

Voters clustered on positions and degree of engagement on key social and fiscal issues.

Self-reported demographic, party ID, and voting behavior used to validate segment characterisctics

Personas developed to illustrate each segment with key data points of issue differentiation


1. Young Idealists

2. Suburban Progressives

3. Metro Establishment

4. Greener Futures

5. Post-Industrial Blue Dogs

6. The Daily Grind

7. Fiscally-Driven Families

8. Made in America

9. Small Town Patriots

10. Crusading Conservatives

35% NON-PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS 33% NON-PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS 32% NON-PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS

The Left - 35% of Voting Base

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10


1. Young Idealists | 9% of votersYoungest cluster, 70% female. Passionate about progressive social issues and believe the role of the government is to

protect society’s most vulnerable. Consistent Democrat voter.

2. Suburban Progressives | 8% of votersFemale-skewed, middle-class suburban and city dwellers. Staunchly pro-choice and focused on income inequality.

Consistent Democrat voter.

3. Metro Establishment | 11% of votersCity inhabitants with a significant minority population and male skew. Focus on gun control and traditionally-progressive

social programs. More likely to donate politically than other liberal segments.

4. Greener Futures | 8% of votersIndependent voters who are most motivated by environmental issues. Highest income segment, including a diverse

population, such as Hispanics and recent immigrants. Nearly one in three are swing voters, but they lean Democrat.


5. Post-Industrial Blue Dogs | 9% of votersEconomically-struggling segment that is also the most heavily minority segment. A democratic lean often wins out due

to focus on issues around entitlement programs and poverty, but the segment leans fiscally conservative when asked to

self-identify.

6. Daily Grind | 27% of votersA day-to-day, paycheck-to-paycheck segment where politics is outside of their daily purview. The segment responds to

platforms, like crime prevention and lower taxes, but not to individual policies. Despite low turn-out, the high numbers

mean that this segment may act as a bellwether.

The Middle - 36% of Voting Base

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



7. Fiscally-Driven Families | 7% of votersMost affluent segment, and also with the highest percentage of children in household. Fiscal conservatives but social

moderates; identify as Republican but do not identify with the Tea Party movement.

8. Made In America | 6% of votersThe oldest of the segments and least educated. Fiscal conservatives but inconsistently affiliate and vote Republican;

many are swing voters. Do not identify strongly with the Tea Party movement. Concerned about illegal immigration and

entitlement programs.

9. Small Town Patriots | 7% of votersStrong fiscal conservatives who oppose all tax increases and favor budget cuts. Very high turn-out; highly mobilized on

gun rights but typically not other social issues. Significant support for the Tea Party movement.

10. Crusading Conservatives | 9% of votersCore social conservatives who are highly engaged on abortion and traditional marriage. Also fiscally conservative.

Reliable turnout and Republican voters. More than half attend church at least once a week. Significant support for Tea

Party movement.

The Right - 29% of Voting Base

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



RECOMMENDATION: Plan media and messaging strategies against voters’ issue positions and voting motivations rather than demographic averages.

Key Findings


Cluster 8 (“Made in America”) has firmly conservative issue positions/values, yet 30% identify as Independents and 34% are swing voters – highest of any segment. Because this group turns out to vote so reliably, losing their support is even more damaging.

Key demographics, such as Hispanics, have such a wide range of issue positions and voter cluster assignments (no more than 26% in a single segment) that messaging tailored to such groups cannot assume any ideological consistency.

Women are 20-25% less likely to support Tea Party movement than men of the same conservative clusters (9 & 10). Significantly more likely to align with four most liberal clusters (40.5%) vs. four most conservative clusters (24.2%).

Non-voting Bystanders make up 16% of the adult population - 29 million members. Vast majority would be eligible to vote, but only 18% are. Younger and poorer than average voter, 2x as likely to be Hispanic, with a slight liberal lean.

Cluster 6 (“Daily Grind”) is home to 32% of swing voters. Motivated most by broad platforms (lower taxes, crime prevention) rather than specific issue positions. But getting their attention is challenging, and their turnout is inconsistent.

384%

320%

68%

78%

41%

Supporting Gay Rights

Pro-Choice

Level of

Suppor

Sup

t Maintaining SNAP/WIC Bene�ts

port Increasing Income Tax for HHI > $250,000

involvement in Issues: Super Advocate

4%

61%

29%

2%

73%

5%

14%

83%

9%

88%

25%

12%

61%

19%

43%

5%

14%

81%

26%

59%

14% 15%12%6%

39%

Republica

n

Democra

t

Indepen

dent

Tea P

arty

Fisca

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Fisca

lly Moder

ate

Fisca

lly Lib

eral

Socia

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Socia

lly Moder

ate

Socia

lly Lib

eral

Lower

Inco

me

Middle Clas

s

Affluent

Hispan

icBlac

kUnion

Obama 2

012

Romney 2012

Likely

Non-Pre

s. Tu

rnout

Politica

l Donor

Politica

l Voluntee

r

Likely

Pres.

Turn

out

Republica

n Vote Patt

ern

Democra

tic Vote

Patter

n

Swing V

ote Patt

ern

30% 70%

POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS

Young Idealists

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Jen is in the youngest of the voter segments. Nearly half of her cohorts are Millenni-als, and more than two-thirds are women. She is passionate about progressive issues, like reproductive and gay rights, as well as income equality. For her, the role of government is to protect society’s most vulnerable (supports maintaining SNAP/WIC benefits), including protecting people from themselves (supports taxes on high fat/sugar products).

While the vast majority consider themselves to be socially liberal, 39% of her peers do not identify as Democrats, although 73% consistently vote Democrat. Her idealism sometimes leads to disillusionment. So, while she’ll actively advocate for social change, her election turnout is among the lowest of any segment. She and her peers are disproportionately concentrated in New England, Mountain, and Pacific regions.


Use SocialMedia

Consume PoliticalNews/Opinions

Online

Online 20+ Hours Per Week

97% 54% 64%

MEDIA CONSUMPTION

DEMOGRAPHICSUNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS

Urban

(% more likely than total voter base)

16%Satellite-City

20%Rural

37%Suburban

28%

GEOGRAPHY

18-34

35-54

55+

9% of voter base 8% of non-Presidential voters

AGE

Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape9


UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS

Suburban Progressives

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



391%

46%

42%

30%

28%

17%

Support Increasing Capital Gains Tax

ort Maintaining SNAP/WIC Bene�ts

port Increasing Income Tax for HHI > $250,000

upport Maintaining Education Spending

el of Involvement in Issues: Advocate

Supp

Sup

S

Lev

Pro-Choice

(% more likely than total voter base)

15%

56%

26%

3%

61%

14%22%

75%

18%

91%

22%15%

64%

38% 40%

20%28%

52%

23%

66%

11%20%

10%18%

22%

Republica

n

Democra

t

Indepen

dent

Tea P

arty

Fisca

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Fisca

lly Moder

ate

Fisca

lly Lib

eral

Socia

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Socia

lly Moder

ate

Socia

lly Lib

eral

Lower

Inco

me

Middle Clas

s

Affluent

Hispan

icBlac

kUnion

Obama 2

012

Romney 2012

Likely

Non-Pre

s. Tu

rnout

Politica

l Donor

Politica

l Voluntee

r

Likely

Pres.

Turn

out

Republica

n Vote Patt

ern

Democra

tic Vote

Patter

n

Swing V

ote Patt

ern

Julia is proud of the college education and the middle class lifestyle for which she’s worked so hard. She is staunchly pro-choice, as are her mostly-female counterparts, but not invested in environmental issues. Instead, Julia is concerned about issues of income equality, supporting increases to taxes for those she considers well-off and opposing cuts to SNAP/WIC and education. Several of Julia’s cohorts are moderately visible in social issues of importance to them.

Julia is the least likely to have children under 18 of any liberal voter segment. Her family is more likely to include both military service members and union members. She almost always votes in presidential elections, but often misses the midterms. When she does turn out, she often votes Democrat. Julia and her peers live in more populous areas, ranging from suburban to urban.

38% 62%

Use SocialMedia


Online


90% 55% 58%

MEDIA CONSUMPTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

Urban

19%Satellite-City

23%Rural

28%Suburban

30%

GEOGRAPHY

18-34

35-54

55+

AGE


446%

42%

28%

41%

14%

Metro Establishment

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10



ort Maintaining SNAP/WIC Bene�ts

pport Federal Policy for Natural Solar Energy

ority

Suppo

Min

port Increasing Income Tax for HHI > $250,000Suppo

Su

Support Gun Control

UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base)


14%

58%

26%

4%

60%

12%

25%

75%

19%

93%

28%

9%

76%

28%

45%

21%29%

50%

23%

61%

16%20%

6%

17%27%

Republica

n

Democra

t

Indepen

dent

Tea P

arty

Fisca

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Fisca

lly Moder

ate

Fisca

lly Lib

eral

Socia

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Socia

lly Moder

ate

Socia

lly Lib

eral

Lower

Inco

me

Middle Clas

s

Affluent

Hispan

icBlac

kUnion

Obama 2

012

Romney 2012

Likely

Non-Pre

s. Tu

rnout

Politica

l Donor

Politica

l Voluntee

r

Likely

Pres.

Turn

out

Republica

n Vote Patt

ern

Democra

tic Vote

Patter

n

Swing V

ote Patt

ern

49% 51%


Reginald has lived in a city all his life and, through his experiences, he’s focused on gun violence as a leading societal problem. Reginald is also concerned about traditional liberal issues of equality, social programs, and alternative fuels.

Reginald, and his peers in this oldest liberal voter segment, fairly and reliably affiliate with and vote Democrat, but a quarter report swing voting behavior. They have the highest turnout of any liberal voter segment in mid-terms. This segment has the second-highest minority composition, and 17% of its members are black. It also has an recent immigrant influence, being more likely to live in non-English speaking households.

Use SocialMedia


Online


90% 57% 60%

MEDIA CONSUMPTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

Urban

22%Satellite-City

18%Rural

29%Suburban

30%

GEOGRAPHY

18-34

35-54

55+ AGE

381%

90%

22%

39%

20%

Support Exploring Alternative Energy

Sup

Value Environm

Va

ental Preservation

lue Concern for the Future

port Increasing Emissions Taxes


Greener Futures

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10




21%

38%35%

5%

42%

22%29%

59%

29%

90%

14%9%

65%

42% 40%

29% 27%

44%

22%

60%

18% 19%11% 8%

18%

Republica

n

Democra

t

Indepen

dent

Tea P

arty

Fisca

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Fisca

lly Moder

ate

Fisca

lly Lib

eral

Socia

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Socia

lly Moder

ate

Socia

lly Lib

eral

Lower

Inco

me

Middle Clas

s

Affluent

Hispan

icBlac

kUnion

Obama 2

012

Romney 2012

Likely

Non-Pre

s. Tu

rnout

Politica

l Donor

Politica

l Voluntee

r

Likely

Pres.

Turn

out

Republica

n Vote Patt

ern

Democra

tic Vote

Patter

n

Swing V

ote Patt

ern

52% 48%


Janet is a well-educated, independent-minded voter who often supports Democrats, largely due to her focus on environmental issues. However, nearly a third of her cohort is swing voters. Her peers are nearly twice as likely to value environmental preservation or concern for the future over patriotism, and Janet’s top policy issue is the exploration of alternative energy.

Janet and her cohorts are a diverse population, including Hispanics and recent immigrants in households with non-English speakers. She is in the highest income voter segment, though there is still influence from lower and middle income segments.

Use SocialMedia


Online


93% 52% 54%

MEDIA CONSUMPTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

Urban

15%Satellite-City

17%Rural

38%Suburban

30%

GEOGRAPHY

18-34

35-54

55+

AGE

pport Federal Policy for Solar EnergySu

251%

27%

Concerned About Entitlement Reform


Post-Industrial Blue Dogs

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10





19%

44%

29%

7%

43%

20%

30%

61%

28%

89%

17%12%

69%

43%38%

28% 30%

42%

30%

57%

13% 17%

8%

21%19%

Republica

n

Democra

t

Indepen

dent

Tea P

arty

Fisca

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Fisca

lly Moder

ate

Fisca

lly Lib

eral

Socia

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Socia

lly Moder

ate

Socia

lly Lib

eral

Lower

Inco

me

Middle Clas

s

Affluent

Hispan

icBlac

kUnion

Obama 2

012

Romney 2012

Likely

Non-Pre

s. Tu

rnout

Politica

l Donor

Politica

l Voluntee

r

Likely

Pres.

Turn

out

Republica

n Vote Patt

ern

Democra

tic Vote

Patter

n

Swing V

ote Patt

ern

54% 46%

Jack and 61% of his peers voted for Obama in 2012, but it wasn’t an easy choice – only 44% are self-identified Democrats and a plurality consider themselves to be fiscal conservatives. As such, Jack doesn’t always follow party lines on things like the environment, but, with a more liberal social view, his progressive lean often wins out. Jack isn’t a highly influential voter, but he is not afraid to get involved in issues that matter, like funding for food programs.

Jack is in the least affluent of the voting segments, with 30% struggling economically, as demonstrated by his concerns about entitlement reform. It is also the most heavily black (and overall minority) segment. Jack and his cohort are disproportionately concentrated in the Atlantic and North Central regions, particu-larly in urban or satellite city locales.

Use SocialMedia


Online


93% 52% 57%

MEDIA CONSUMPTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

Urban

19%Satellite-City

24%Rural

34%Suburban

23%

GEOGRAPHY

18-34

35-54

55+

AGE

ort Maintaining SNAP/WIC Bene�tsSuppo

25%

9%

23%


The Daily Grind

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10





26%

42%

27%

8%

38%

25%30%

52%

35%

85%

10%5%

60%

44%41%

33% 35% 32%27%

56%

16% 14%8%

15%16%

Republica

n

Democra

t

Indepen

dent

Tea P

arty

Fisca

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Fisca

lly Moder

ate

Fisca

lly Lib

eral

Socia

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Socia

lly Moder

ate

Socia

lly Lib

eral

Lower

Inco

me

Middle Clas

s

Affluent

Hispan

icBlac

kUnion

Obama 2

012

Romney 2012

Likely

Non-Pre

s. Tu

rnout

Politica

l Donor

Politica

l Voluntee

r

Likely

Pres.

Turn

out

Republica

n Vote Patt

ern

Democra

tic Vote

Patter

n

Swing V

ote Patt

ern

48% 52%

Megan and her many peers are comparably younger and more likely to have kids at home. While slightly fewer than average have college degrees, they also have a slightly lower than average income. Further echoing their daily struggles, this segment is the least likely to have health insurance, although they are more likely to be employed. In the competition for their time, politics and policy are lower priorities, and they have no well-developed sense of societal values, such as patriotism or environmental preserva-tion.

As part of the largest voter segment, capturing the support of Megan is challenging and difficult to predict, and lacking a strong allegiance to issues. Megan responds well to candidates with platforms of lower taxes, job creation, and crime prevention. However, she doesn’t espouse any specific plans for achievement of these ideals. A slim majority of this segment voted for Obama in 2012 and 2008, but they have the lowest turn-out of any segment.

Use SocialMedia


Online


90% 43% 54%

MEDIA CONSUMPTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

Urban

16%Satellite-City

20%Rural

37%Suburban

27%

GEOGRAPHY

18-34

35-54

55+

AGE

Uninsured

Crime Prevention

Lower Taxes


Fiscally-Driven Families

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10





40%30%

26%

13%

25%

42%

28%

54%

35%

91%

16%7%

66%

55%

32%

42%34%

24% 25%

56%

19% 15%11% 7%

13%

Republica

n

Democra

t

Indepen

dent

Tea P

arty

Fisca

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Fisca

lly Moder

ate

Fisca

lly Lib

eral

Socia

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Socia

lly Moder

ate

Socia

lly Lib

eral

Lower

Inco

me

Middle Clas

s

Affluent

Hispan

icBlac

kUnion

Obama 2

012

Romney 2012

Likely

Non-Pre

s. Tu

rnout

Politica

l Donor

Politica

l Voluntee

r

Likely

Pres.

Turn

out

Republica

n Vote Patt

ern

Democra

tic Vote

Patter

n

Swing V

ote Patt

ern

56% 44%

Clayton and his peers are the most affluent of any voter segment, even though they are no more educated. He not only stretches his income, but suggests that the government do the same. Clayton considers himself to be fiscally conservative, especially opposing taxes on issues of personal choice, such as high sugar/fat foods and “gas guzzling” cars. A plurality of his cohort identify as socially conservative, although there are plenty of social moderates. All of them are concerned about illegal immigration and border control.

Clayton affiliates Republican and often votes as such, but he and his peers don’t feel represented by the Tea Party. Of this segment, 28% are Catholics, and 56% have kids under 18, the highest of any segment.

Use SocialMedia


Online


90% 48% 61%

MEDIA CONSUMPTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

Urban

15%Satellite-City

20%Rural

37%Suburban

28%

GEOGRAPHY

18-34

35-54

55+

AGE

219%

19%

Concerned About Immigration & Border Control

se taxes on High Sugar/Fat FoodsOppo


Made in America

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10





38%

25%30%

18%23%

40%34% 32%

58%

90%

15%6%

66%59%

34%40% 41%

19% 27%

55%

18% 14%7% 6%7%

Republica

n

Democra

t

Indepen

dent

Tea P

arty

Fisca

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Fisca

lly Moder

ate

Fisca

lly Lib

eral

Socia

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Socia

lly Moder

ate

Socia

lly Lib

eral

Lower

Inco

me

Middle Clas

s

Affluent

Hispan

icBlac

kUnion

Obama 2

012

Romney 2012

Likely

Non-Pre

s. Tu

rnout

Politica

l Donor

Politica

l Voluntee

r

Likely

Pres.

Turn

out

Republica

n Vote Patt

ern

Democra

tic Vote

Patter

n

Swing V

ote Patt

ern

48% 52%

Joann and her peers are one of the oldest of the voting segments, and their positions and viewpoints reflect that. While they are more likely to live under the economic influence of larger metro areas, they prefer suburban and rural settings. Only 43% have college degrees, the least of any segment.

Joann espouses traditional Republican values, such as fiscal conservatism, patriotism, and support for the military. Joann informs herself on issues that matter to her before voting, like concerns about illegal immigration and border control, and concerns about entitlement reform. Despite her core political values, Joann and her peers may not feel represented by the Republican party. Although 38% affiliate Republican, 3 out of 10 are Independent and many of Joann’s peers are swing voters whose votes have to be earned with each election.

Use SocialMedia


Online


91% 49% 60%

MEDIA CONSUMPTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

Urban

13%Satellite-City

21%Rural

37%Suburban

29%

GEOGRAPHY

18-34

35-54

55+AGE

251%

219%

46%

49%

44%

Concerned About Entitlement Reform

Concerned About Immigration & Border

Value Pa

Informe

Suppor

Control

triotism

d Voters

t Maintaining Military Funding


Small Town Patriots

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10





51%

5%

36%

46%

4%

71%

17%

7%

82%

96%

33%

12%

85% 84%

12%

55%

32%

14% 18%

63%

19%10%6%

3%3%

Republica

n

Democra

t

Indepen

dent

Tea P

arty

Fisca

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Fisca

lly Moder

ate

Fisca

lly Lib

eral

Socia

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Socia

lly Moder

ate

Socia

lly Lib

eral

Lower

Inco

me

Middle Clas

s

Affluent

Hispan

icBlac

kUnion

Obama 2

012

Romney 2012

Likely

Non-Pre

s. Tu

rnout

Politica

l Donor

Politica

l Voluntee

r

Likely

Pres.

Turn

out

Republica

n Vote Patt

ern

Democra

tic Vote

Patter

n

Swing V

ote Patt

ern

65% 35%

Rick is proud to be a fiscal conservative, opposing taxes and favoring deep program cuts. In addition to affiliating and voting Republican, 46% of Rick’s peers identify with the Tea Party. Half of them consider themselves to be socially conservative, with nearly all of them engaging on the banner issue of gun rights, though they are less concerned about other trademark social issues like reproductive and gay rights. Traditional energy is also a hallmark of Rick’s beliefs. In this segment, the value of patriotism outweighs that of environmental preservation by nearly four times.

Rick and his cohort are the most reliable voters : 96% are likely to turn out at any given presidential election and 85% are likely to turn out in mid-term elections. This segment is the most male of any segment. They are over-represented in smaller metro areas in the South Central and Mountain regions, and prefer living in small towns and rural areas.

Use SocialMedia


Online


81% 69% 56%

MEDIA CONSUMPTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

Urban

11%Satellite-City

15%Rural

51%Suburban

22%

GEOGRAPHY

18-34

35-54

55+ AGE

302%

173%

85%

49%

49%

32%

Support Gun Ownership Rights

Oppose Increasing Capital Gains Tax

Patriotism

rt Federal Policy for Clean Coal-Based Energy

to Extend Unemployment Bene�tsSupport Cuts

Suppo

port Federal Policy for Natural Gas-Based EnergySup

Value


Crusading Conservatives

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10





65%

7%

22%

43%

5%

77%

14%10%

84%94%

22%

11%

76%81%

15%

79%

15%6%

21%

66%

13% 11%4% 4%3%

Republica

n

Democra

t

Indepen

dent

Tea P

arty

Fisca

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Fisca

lly Moder

ate

Fisca

lly Lib

eral

Socia

lly Conse

rvativ

e

Socia

lly Moder

ate

Socia

lly Lib

eral

Lower

Inco

me

Middle Clas

s

Affluent

Hispan

icBlac

kUnion

Obama 2

012

Romney 2012

Likely

Non-Pre

s. Tu

rnout

Politica

l Donor

Politica

l Voluntee

r

Likely

Pres.

Turn

out

Republica

n Vote Patt

ern

Democra

tic Vote

Patter

n

Swing V

ote Patt

ern

59% 41%

Don is on a mission. He is the staunchest of social conservatives and he and his peers make it known, advocating for issues that matter to them. They are the most religious of the segments, attending weekly or more frequent religious worship at two and a half times the population average, with 18% Evangelical membership. Don’s social conser-vatism is only rivaled by his fiscal conservative streak, opposing taxes and supporting program cuts.

In addition to reliably affiliating with the Republican Party and being a Republican voter, Don and 43% of his cohort support the Tea Party. They show up to vote when it counts, with a likely presidential turnout of 94% and a 76% mid-term turnout. Don shies away from urban settings, enjoying his middle-class home in the smaller towns of the Midwest and the South.

Use SocialMedia


Online


88% 61% 55%

MEDIA CONSUMPTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

Urban

6%Satellite-City

21%Rural

48%Suburban

25%

GEOGRAPHY

18-34

35-54

55+AGE

403%

387%

211%

158%

146%

78%

74%

62%

Support Gun Ownership Rights

Heavy Worshippers

Oppose Increasing In

Oppose In

Support C

Suppor

come Tax for HHI > $250,000

creasing Capital Gains Tax

uts to Arts/Historic/Cultural Programs

t Cuts to SNAP/WIC Bene�ts

Support Defense of Traditional Marriage

Pro-Life

Swing Voters


Swing voters make up 1/4 of the voting base. Even at the ideological poles, 14% of voters did not consistently vote for one party, although half of swing voters come from moderate voter segments. Swing voters do not all hold the same positions across issues, so understanding which segments they are in is key to developing strategies that will capture their votes.

30%The DailyGrind

6

28% 34%Fiscally-DrivenFamilies

Made InAmerica

7 8

14%17%Small TownPatriots

CrusadingConservatives

9 10

YoungIdealists

SuburbanProgressives

14% 22%1 2

GreenerFutures

MetroEstablishment

25% 29%3 4

30%Post-IndustrialBlue Dogs

5

Percent of each segment who areswing voters

There may be an assumption that the swing voter constituency equates to other sociodemographic constituencies, but most are no more or less likely to be swing voters.

21%24% 26%

16%

25%

Under 30

Female

Hispanic

Black

Union House

hold

Under 30

Female

Hispanic

Black

Union House

hold

14%

8% 7%

15%

49%

Percent of constituencywho are swing voters

Swing voters distributedby constituency

1

5%7%

11%

11%

8%

8%5% 5%

32%

9%

2

3

4

56

7

89 10

Swing voters distributed by segment


Not registered to vote or simply never turn out to vote

21% of Bystanders say they did not register because they just aren’t interested in

politics. 12% are not eligible

Bystanders

Only 18% are Registered to Vote

79% more likely to be low income than voter base

40% more likely to identify as Democrat

35% more likely to support Petroleum development

24% more likely to be fiscally liberal

22% more likely to be socially moderate

Nearly 2x more likely to be Hispanic

1.4x more likely not to speak English at home

Poorer than Average Voters

Moderate-to-ProgressiveLean

Much Younger thanAverage Voter

Immigrants

Resgistered

Not Resgistered

18-34 35-44 45-54

Not Sure

Middle Class

Lower Income

Affluent

18%

75%

44%

48%

8%

7%

56%

32%

12%


Hispanics

Hispanic voters (12+ million) are Present in All SegmentsThey differ significantly on few issues from the total voter base, and when they do, ideological fragmentation is evident.

64% more likely to support cuts to K12 education

28% more likely to vote for candidate running on a platform of improving education.

More assimilated Hispanics are 21% more likely to oppose cuts to education than less assimilated Hispanics.

Affluent Hispanics are more likely to support cuts to SNAP/WIC than lower income Hispanics (a similar pattern is seen in the total voter base, as well).

20% more likely to support SNAP/WIC cuts

12% more likely to be low income compared to voter base.

113.1%

29.9%

38.1%

410.9%

626.3%

85.1%

95.3%

104.4%

78.8%

58.1%

These con�icts are the result of an increasingly complex group thatdoesn’t act as a voting bloc.


Women

Fewer Women at the Tea Party Political Donations and Volunteerismat the Poles

Significant Gender Gap in Segment Composition

Women in segments 9 & 10 are significantly less likely to identify with the views of the Tea Party movement

The women on the right are among the most likely to volunteer for political campaigns, but donations come from the left and right

Women distribute across the spectrum, but a higher percentage are in left-leaning segments than right

Male Female

51%

38%

47%

38%

CrusadingConservatives

Small TownPatriots

112.5%

40.5% 24.2%

29.6%

310.8%

47.6%

627.4%

86.3%

94.9%

107.1%

75.9%

57.9%

“Small Town Patriots” (9)

Top 3 Donors (Women)

38%

26%

22%

“Metro Establishment” (3)

“Young Idealists” (1)

“Crusading Conservatives” (10)

Top 3 Volunteers (Women)

11%

11%

11%

“Small Town Patriots” (9)

“Suburban Progressives” (2)


Millennials

Likely Inconsistent Turnout Issue Position Differences HighlightRole of Government

Slightly More Likely to be in Left-Leaning Segments

Millennials are 16% less likely to turn out in Presidential elections and 35% less likely to turn out for mid-terms.

Millennials are somewhat more likely to support “sin taxes” and maintaining spending on education and the arts.

Millennials are 58% more likely to be Young Idealists and they are 25% less likely to be in right-leaning segments than average.

Millennials All Other

79%

94%

49%

75%

Non-PresidentialPresidential

114.2%

38.5% 21.9%

28%

37.3%

48.5%

631%

84%

94.7%

107.8%

75.4%

58.9%

Tax on high sugar/fat foods

More Likely to Support (as compared to total voter base)

+24%

+16%

+24%

Maintain K12 spending

Maintain spending on arts/historic preservation

The Largest Research Platform


Sample500 - 1,500

Sample2,000 - 3,000

Annual Sample25,000 - 30,000

Continuous Research+ Online Behavior

Typical Poll

Political Research

Syndicated Research

Resonate

200,000+ Surveys

Behavioral data for90% of U.S. web users

Cookies modeled to150MM

U.S. Population

Optimal Analytical Methodology


A k-means algorithm was applied through multiple iterations to find natural clusters in voter issue and motivation data.

The k-means algorithms partitions observations by distance from a mean that represents the prototype for the cluster. Each input creates its own dimension with a mean and a distance, and the algorithm looks for the closest neighboring data points across inputs and tries to minimize intra-cluster distance (distance between data points within cluster) and maximize inter-cluster distance (distance between clusters). In this case, each data point is a respondent (or a voter) and each input is an issue position.

Clustering in this context is a semi-supervised algorithm because it also introduces a validation step. While there is no true output to be predicted from the model, the analysts’ role is to ensure that the resulting segmentation scheme can be identified, analyzed, and labeled in a way that solves the original problem of data (or voter) classification.

Three sets of inputs were tested; the set that produced the most meaningful segmentation included 51 issue positions covering energy policy, program cuts, tax increases, and social issue engagement. The first round of results yielded eight segments, including three groups of no discernible differentiation across affiliation or voting behavior. The three groups were combined and re-clustered with additional inputs to develop five clusters across the ideological spectrum, which were reincorporated into the main model.

Final results identified ten ideologically and demographically distinct clusters ranging from 6.2% - 26.9% of the voter base, plus a segment of non-registered or non-voting “Bystanders”.

About ResonateResonate has pioneered a new model for using “big data” to develop a sophisticated understanding of consumer motivations, values, attitudes and beliefs. Marketers need to understand “why” the audiences they target take action. Resonate answers that question, while making it simple to put that knowledge to work creating positive results for political campaigns and marketing initiatives.

For more information, visit: www.resonateinsights.com

Researchers:

Lauren KreisbergResearch Director

@resonatetweets /ResonateNetworks Resonate-Networks/resonateinsight resonateinsights.com/blog

Michael HornVP Research

Dr. Yuan-Chyuan SheuData Scientist

Dr. Zeehasham RasheedData Scientist

Brent WaddingtonData Analyst

2014 voter motivation landscape

Government & Nonprofit