2014 winnipeg manitoba market outlook
TRANSCRIPT
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
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Manitoba Economy
Manitoba Housing Markets
Winnipeg Demographics and Housing Markets
Resale Market
New Home Market
Single-detached
Multi-family
Rental Market
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Manitoba Real GDP GrowthEconomy will continue to expand at a steady pace
per cent change in real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Aug
2014
Manitoba Retail Sales GrowthSpending growth at over three per cent, contributing to economy
Source: Statistics Canada
per cent change in retail sales
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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-$10
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ja-Au
2013
Ja-Au
2014
Exports Imports Net Exports
Manitoba International TradeExports increasing, up 10 per cent to date in 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
billions
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Manitoba Total Net MigrationMigration to remain elevated above 8,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)
net migration
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-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
per cent change, average employment
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)
Manitoba Employment GrowthEmployment gains to return in 2015
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Manitoba Employment by AgeGains among 25 to 44 year olds, positive for first-time buyers
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
15-24 25-44 45-64 Total Employment
2013
Jan-Sep 2014
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
year-over-year % change
Source: Statistics Canada
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Manitoba Unemployment RateProjected to remain near 5.5 per cent
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Manitoba Canada
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada, seasonally adjusted
unemployment rate
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-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CPI - Manitoba
AWE - 12 mo mov. avg.
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada
year-over-year % change
Manitoba – AWE and InflationNominal wage growth above inflation
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Five-year Mortgage RateWill remain low by historical standards
0
5
10
15
20
25
1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015f
5-year Mortgage Rate
Forecast Range
Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)
4
5
6
7
2014f 2015f 2016f
per cent
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
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5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Other Centres
Winnipeg
Manitoba MLS® Total SalesProvincial sales to rise moderately
Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)
units
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)
average price (thousands)
Manitoba Residential MLS® PricePrice growth expected to moderate
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
5.3% 2.2% 2.3%
5.2%
2.3%
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Rest of Province
Winnipeg
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
units
Manitoba Single-detached Housing StartsStarts to increase in 2015, remain stable
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Q1-Q3 2013 Q1-Q3 2014 % Change
Winnipeg 1,693 1,434 -15%
Brandon 101 84 -17%
Steinbach 61 49 -20%
Portage la Prairie 5 7 40%
Thompson 2 2 -
Winkler 81 47 -42%
Hanover 102 88 -13%
St. Andrews R.M. 31 24 -22%
All Urban Centres 2,076 1,735 -16%
Rural Areas 767 688 -10%
Total 2,843 2,423 -15%
Source: CMHCCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Manitoba Single-detached Housing StartsGreater decrease in urban areas
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Rest of Province
Winnipeg
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Manitoba Multi-family Housing StartsTo moderate but remain elevated
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
units
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Q1-Q3 2013 Q1-Q3 2014 % Change
Winnipeg 1,930 1,961 2%
Brandon 172 134 -22%
Steinbach 170 97 -43%
Portage la Prairie - 20 **
Thompson - - **
Winkler 91 112 23
Hanover 28 12 -57%
St. Andrews R.M. - - **
All Urban Centres 2,391 2,336 -2%
Rural Areas 402 194 -52%
Total 2,793 2,530 -9%
Source: CMHC
Manitoba Multi-family Housing StartsGreater decrease in rural areas
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Manitoba Forecast Summary
Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CREA, * Total Residential, CMHC Forecast (f)CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Economy
GDP Growth 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.3
Employment Growth 0.6 -0.1 1.1 1.0
Net Migration 9,217 9,200 9,100 9,300
New Home Market
Single-detached Starts(Range)
3,820 3,300(3,400-3,200)
3,500(3,800-3,200)
3,500(3,900-3,100)
Multi-family Starts(Range)
3,645 3,400(3,400-3,400)
3,000(3,200-2,800)
2,800(3,100-2,500)
Resale Market*
Total Sales(Range)
13,735 13,900(14,100-13,600)
14,100(14,800-13,400)
14,200(15,100-13,300)
Average Price(Range)
$260,849 $266,500($266,900-$264,400)
$272,600($277,380-$268,000)
$278,800($283,600-$272,100)
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
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CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
year-over-year per cent change
Winnipeg CMA Population GrowthRate of growth at levels not seen in over 25 years
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CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Halifax
Montréal
St. John's
Ottawa-Gatineau
Vancouver
Toronto
All metropolitan areas
Winnipeg
Regina
Edmonton
Saskatoon
Calgary
2012-2013 per cent change
Select CMAs Population GrowthWinnipeg on par with national metropolitan average
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CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Renter 1st Time
Buyer
Move-up
Buyer
Seniors’
Housing
Live with
parents
Adult Lifestyle
Source: Statistics Canada
persons
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,0000-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85-8
9
90+
Population
Growth Rate (2009-2013)
Winnipeg Age Profile 2013Higher population growth supports multi-family markets
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CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Renter 1st Time
Buyer
Move-up
Buyer
Seniors’
Housing
Live with
parents
Adult Lifestyle
Source: Statistics Canada
persons growth rate
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,0000-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85-8
9
90+
Population
Growth Rate (2009-2013)
Winnipeg Age Profile 2013Higher population growth supports multi-family markets
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
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7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)
Winnipeg CMA MLS® Total SalesSales to rise moderately through 2016
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
residential unit sales
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Winnipeg MLS® SalesCondominium sales climbing, 14 per cent of total in 2013
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Residential
Condominium
Source: Winnipeg Realtors® websiteCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
residential unit sales condominium unit sales
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Winnipeg CMA MLS® SalesPace of sales rebounded in recent months
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units (trended)
Source: CREA, Trend adjustment by CMHC
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Winnipeg CMA MLS® New ListingsMore homes being put up for sale, increased 14 per cent yr/yr
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units (trended)
Source: CREA, Trend adjustment by CMHC
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30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Winnipeg
Canada
MLS® Sales-to-New Listings RatioDecreasing, within balanced conditions
seasonally adjusted
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CREA, seasonally adjusted
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Winnipeg CMA MLS® Average PricePrice gains to moderate
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
thousands
Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)
5.2% 2.8%2.5%
5.7%
2.5%
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Multi-family
Single-detached
Source: CMHCCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Winnipeg CMA Total Housing StartsTotal starts reached a 26-year high in 2013
units
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Total Housing Starts Per CapitaWinnipeg starts per capita climbing
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Winnipeg
All Metropolitan Areas
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC
starts per 1,000 population
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
Winnipeg CMA Single-detached StartsTo come down from 2013 but remain elevated
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units
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Winnipeg CMA Single-detachedAbsorptions beginning to outpace completions
100
125
150
175
200
225
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Absorptions
Completions
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units (12 month moving average)
Source: CMHC
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Winnipeg CMA Single-detached InventoryDecreasing and in line with five-year average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Complete and Unabsorbed
Spec Homes
Show Homes
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units
Source: CMHC
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$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
average absorbed price (000s)
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
Winnipeg CMA New Single-detached PriceAbsorbed average price to increase steadily
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
1.9%4.5%
2.8%3.7%
2.7%
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Winnipeg CMA Absorptions by PriceCategory of greatest market share shifted upwards
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
<$300K $300K-$400K $400K-$500K $500K-$600K >$600K
Jan-Sep 2013
Jan-Sep 2014
absorptions by price range (single-detached units)
Source: CMHCCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Winnipeg CMA New House Price IndexRate of growth has slowed
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total
House only
Land only
Source: Statistics Canada
2007 = 1.0
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
Winnipeg CMA Multi-family StartsWill remain elevated, but moderate over next two years
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units
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CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Semi Row Apt.
Jan-Sep 2013
Jan-Sep 2014
Source: CMHC
Winnipeg CMA Multi Starts by TypeRow housing seeing increased activity
units
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ja-Se
2013
Ja-Se
2014
Ownership Rental
Source: CMHCCANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Winnipeg CMA Multi Starts by TenureUnits for ownership seeing greater market share
units
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0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Absorptions
Completions
units (12 month moving average)
Source: CMHC
Winnipeg CMA Multi-family AbsorptionsCompletions outpacing absorptions since 2012
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Source: CMHC
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Rental
Ownership
Five-year Average
Winnipeg CMA Multi-family InventoryComplete and unabsorbed units rising
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units
![Page 46: 2014 Winnipeg Manitoba Market Outlook](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032616/55a3a2ad1a28ab74488b4752/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Source: CMHC
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Rental
Ownership
Five-year Average
Winnipeg CMA Multis Under ConstructionUnits under construction at a 35-yr high
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units
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Winnipeg CMA Apartment Vacancy RateTo rise above three per cent by 2016
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
October surveys
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
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CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
two-bedroom average rent (October)
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
Winnipeg Average Apartment RentSteady increases to continue
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CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
average two-bedroom apartment rent
average MLS® home carrying cost
* assumption: 5% down payment, average 5-year fixed mortgage rates, amortized 25 years
Source: CREA, Bank of Canada, CMHC calculations
monthly carrying cost*, rent
Winnipeg Cost of Owning vs. RentingCosts 60 per cent more to buy a home than rent
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2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
New Home Market
Single-detached Starts 2,218 1,975 2,000 2,025
Multi-family Starts 2,487 2,550 2,500 2,400
New House Pr. Ind. (% chg.) 4.9 2.3 2.2 2.2
Resale Market
Total Sales 12,088 12,200 12,300 12,400
Average Price $ 268,382 $ 276,000 $ 283,000 $ 290,000
Rental Market
Vacancy Rate (%) 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2
2-bedroom Rent $ 969 $ 1010 $ 1,040 $ 1,070
Source: CREA, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
Winnipeg CMA Forecast Summary
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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Contact Information
Dianne Himbeault
Senior Market Analyst, CMHC
(204) 318-1754
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
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