2015-10-17 a coastal observing and forecasting system for the baltic sea lennart funkquist swedish...
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A Coastal Observing and Forecasting System
for the Baltic Sea
Lennart FunkquistSwedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Swedish Coastal Waters
some areal facts
• Economical zone is about 155 000 km²
• Territorial water amounts to about 82 000 km²
• European Water Framework Directive (WFD) only contains about 36 000 km²
• But the whole Skagerrak, Kattegat and Baltic Sea may be regarded as coastal waters
• The length of the Swedish coastline is 11 500 or 32 000 km depending on definition
• About 100 000 islands
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Swedish Coastal Watersphysical and biological conditions
• From an almost oceanic condition in the Skagerrak the salinity decreases to about 1-2 psu in the northern Baltic.
• Great spatial and seasonal variation of physical, chemical and biological parameters
• Normal condition means that almost half of the Baltic is ice-covered during late winter
• The Baltic Sea with its brackish water contains many species that live on their outer edge of survival.
• Conditions may get worse as future climate may result in fresher water conditions.
Typical salinity in the Baltic
Reproduktionsvolym Bornholmsbassängen 2:a kvartalet
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
dep
th
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60
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0 5 10 15 20 25
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Harmful agea blooms during summer
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Skagerrak
Kattegat
Bornholmbasin
East Gotland basin
Increased acidic conditions in the Baltic Sea.
Does it depend on increased absorption of atmospheric CO2 ?There is a decrease of pH with about 0.02/10 years in the global seas (IPCC-07)
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Ships of opportunity Monitoring cruises Ferry-Box Satellite Coastal stations Buoys
Regular observations
One-year coverage
for a typical year
Water levelBuoys
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
Added: Real-time and NRT data from all Baltic Sea countries
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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
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Nitrat (M )
HOME Water as a complement to traditional monitoring
responds to the Water Framework Directive
Reported parameterMonth
J F M A M J J A S O N DTotal-Nitrogen*) × × × × × × ×
Total-Fosforous*) × × × × × × ×
Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN)*)
× × ×
Inorganic Fosforous (DIP)*)
× × ×
Chlorophyll*) × × × ×
Oxygen**) × × ×
Secchi Depth ×
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
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40
60
0
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60
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0
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0
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Nitrat (M )
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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The SMHI forecasting system
ECMWF
HIROMB
HIRLAM
Ocean/sea ice model Wave model
Data
assimilation
Ecological model
River runoff model
Ocean data
Built on a complete atmosphere/land/ocean system:
• Atmospheric model• Ocean/sea ice model• Open boundary forcing• Data assimilation• Ecological model• Wave model• River runoff model• Atmospheric deposition model• Fine resolution coastal models• Oil spill model
MATCH
Atm. Deposition
model
Open boundaries
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Fresh water and nutrients input to the Baltic basin
with an operational river runoff model
0
2 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0
A t m . d e p .o n l a k e s
I n d u s t r y P o p u l a t i o n F o r e s t O p e n l a n d
T o t - N ( t o n n e s /
y e a r )
0
1
2
o n d j f m a m j j a sM o n t h
T o t - N ( m g / L )
m e a s u r e d
c o m p u t e d
0
2 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
1 9 8 0 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0
( m 3 / s ) Q ( c o m p u t e d )
Q ( r e c o r d e d )
~ 1 720 000 km2
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Kernel: HIROMB co-operation
Existed for more than ten years
Sustainable
Contract
National funding
Real-time data exchange
HIROMB agreement
BOOS
NOOS
Daily forecast and forcing data
1 nm +48h forecast
3 nm +10 days forecast
Freely available on ftp-site
Real-time validation and forecasts
Freely available on WEB-site
www.smhi.se/OceanWeb
user:littorina pwd: hermes
Downstream services
Oil spill Algea
Harbours Sea rescue
Sea ice service SMHI consulting
Fish and crab larvae
9 partners from 8 countries
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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HIROMB System
Agreement
10 Partners, 9 countries
Steering Committee
Board
National HELCOM representative
Agreed Annual Plan
Scientific Co-ordinator
R&D programme
Annual Workshop
Operational Co-ordinator
7d/24h Operational Centre
Operational models/Data collection/Data dissemination
On-going projects
ECOOP MyOcean
Polarview Damocles
BANSAI EMAPS
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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OceanWeb
Forecast and validation on WEB-site
sea level
currents
surface salinity
SST and sea ice
vertical profiles
wind
Waves
observations
R/V Argos
observations
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Data assimilation
Sea surface temperature Assimilation of a temperature profile. Climatology(top), assimilation using 10 observations (middle) and observed temperature (bottom)
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Downstream service: oil spill Downstream service: oil spill
Fu Shan Hai, June 3, 1200 UTCFu Shan Hai, June 3, 1200 UTC
SeaTrackWeb an internet application
SLAR imageSLAR image ForecastForecast
At 1018 UTC on Saturday May 31 2003 Fu Shan Hai, fully laden with a cargo of At 1018 UTC on Saturday May 31 2003 Fu Shan Hai, fully laden with a cargo of 66,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser loaded in Ventspils, Latvia was struck by a container 66,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser loaded in Ventspils, Latvia was struck by a container ship, Gdynia north of Bornholm.ship, Gdynia north of Bornholm...Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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HIROMB-SCOBI
Modelled Chattonella-bloom in Feb 2002
Left: Surface chlorophyll (mg/m) from satellite Feb 24.
Middle and right: Model results of total chlorophyll and Chattonella concentrations (0-4m depth) from February 2002 24.
10 20 30 40 50 60
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Skagerrak-Kattegat 2002: SCOBI Variable Chlorophyll (mg Chl/m3)
-4
-2
0
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10 20 30 40 50 60
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Skagerrak-Kattegat 2002: SCOBI Variable Chattonella (mg Chl/m3)
-1
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Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Fine-resolution operational local models
A fjord in Skagerrak
A fine resolution model (60m) together with STW (oil spill drift model) is run operationally. The service is paid by an oil refinery situated in the inner part of the fjord
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Conclusions
Observational network needs improvement
satellite data OK for SST and sea ice
not enough data for biological variables
more buoys are needed
a chain of coastal buoys is developing
Upgrading of ocean and ecological model
increased resolution with increased computer capacity
data assimilation will be further developed
a more advanced ecological model is needed
Workshop on The status of European Coastal Observing and Fprecasting Systems, Majorca, October 2007
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Reported parameter
Month
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Total-Nitrogen*) × × × × × × ×
Total-Fosforous*) × × × × × × ×
Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN)*) × × ×
Inorganic Fosforous (DIP)*) × × ×
Chlorophyll*) × × × ×
Oxygen**) × × ×
Secchi Depth ×
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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0
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40
60
0
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40
60
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
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40
60
0
20
40
60
Nitrat (M )