2015-11 county sales & price public ppt
TRANSCRIPT
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CALIFORNIA
HOUSING MARKETUPDATE
Monthly Sales and Price Statistics
November 2015
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SALES OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES
California, Nov 2015 Sales: 369,680 Units, +6.0% YTD, -1.6% YTY
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
J a n - 0 5
J u l - 0 5
J a n - 0 6
J u l - 0 6
J a n - 0 7
J u l - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
J u l - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
J u l - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
J a n - 1 5
J u l - 1 5
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualizedSERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Nov-15:369,680
Nov-14:375,740
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CALIFORNIA SALES(JAN 2000 – PRESENT)
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
J a n - 0 0
S e p - 0 0
M a y - 0 1
J a n - 0 2
S e p - 0 2
M a y - 0 3
J a n - 0 4
S e p - 0 4
M a y - 0 5
J a n - 0 6
S e p - 0 6
M a y - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
S e p - 0 8
M a y - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
S e p - 1 0
M a y - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
S e p - 1 2
M a y - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
S e p - 1 4
M a y - 1 5
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
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CALIFORNIA SALES(JAN 2010 – PRESENT)
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes, Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
J a n - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
O c t - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
A p r - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
A p r - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
A p r - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
O c t - 1 4
J a n - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
J u l - 1 5
O c t - 1 5
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
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BAY AREA SALES (EXISTING SFH)
SERIES: Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
J a n - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
O c t - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
A p r - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
A p r - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
A p r - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
O c t - 1 4
J a n - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
J u l - 1 5
O c t - 1 5
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)YoY % chg.
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CENTRAL VALLEY SALES (EXISTING SFH)
SERIES: Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
J a n - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
O c t - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
A p r - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
A p r - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
A p r - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
O c t - 1 4
J a n - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
J u l - 1 5
O c t - 1 5
Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)YoY % chg.
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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (EXISTING SFH)
SERIES: Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-25%
-20%-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
J a n - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
O c t - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
A p r - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
A p r - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
A p r - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
O c t - 1 4
J a n - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
J u l - 1 5
O c t - 1 5
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)YoY % chg.
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SALES SHARE BY PRICE RANGE
14%
18%16%
14%
19%
9% 8%
3%
12%
17% 16%14%
21%
9% 9%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Nov-14 Nov-15
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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CHANGE IN SALES BY PRICE RANGE
(Year-to-Year)
-18.3%
-4.0% -4.2%
-1.3%
10.6%
7.7%
11.3% 10.7%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%Nov-15
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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MEDIAN PRICE OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES
California, Nov 2015: $475,000, -0.2% MTM, +6.8% YTY
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
J a n - 0 5
J u l - 0 5
J a n - 0 6
J u l - 0 6
J a n - 0 7
J u l - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
J u l - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
J u l - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
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J u l - 1 5
P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230-59% frompeak
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Nov-15:$475,000
Nov-14:$444,630
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-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
J a n - 0 5
J u l - 0 5
J a n - 0 6
J u l - 0 6
J a n - 0 7
J u l - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
J u l - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
J u l - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
J a n - 1 5
J u l - 1 5
Condo Single-Family Homes
HOME PRICE APPRECIATIONS HAVE
MODERATED SINCE MID 2013
SERIES: Sales of SFH and Condo UnitsSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
YTY% Chg. in Price
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CA MEDIAN PRICE (EXISTING SFH)
SERIES: Median Price, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
J a n - 0 5
J u n - 0 5
N o v - 0 5
A p r - 0 6
S e p - 0 6
F e b - 0 7
J u l - 0 7
D e c - 0 7
M a y - 0 8
O c t - 0 8
M a r - 0 9
A u g - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
J u n - 1 0
N o v - 1 0
A p r - 1 1
S e p - 1 1
F e b - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
M a y - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
M a r - 1 4
A u g - 1 4
J a n - 1 5
J u n - 1 5
N o v - 1 5
Month-to-Month % Chg
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PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
Nov 2015: $235, Down 0.7% MTM, Up 2.1% YTY
$235
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
J a n - 0 7
A p r - 0 7
J u l - 0 7
O c t - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
A p r - 0 8
J u l - 0 8
O c t - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
A p r - 0 9
J u l - 0 9
O c t - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
O c t - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
A p r - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
A p r - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
A p r - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
O c t - 1 4
J a n - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
J u l - 1 5
O c t - 1 5
PRICE PER SQ. FT.
SERIES: Median Price Per Square FeetSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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SALES PRICE -TO-LIST PRICE RATIO
Nov 2015: 98.1%, Down 0.2% MTM, Up 0.6% YTY
98.1%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
J a n - 0 7
A p r - 0 7
J u l - 0 7
O c t - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
A p r - 0 8
J u l - 0 8
O c t - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
A p r - 0 9
J u l - 0 9
O c t - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
O c t - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
A p r - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
A p r - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
A p r - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
A p r - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
O c t - 1 4
J a n - 1 5
A p r - 1 5
J u l - 1 5
O c t - 1 5
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
SERIES: Sales-to-List RatioSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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INVENTORY CONTINUED TODECLINE FROM LAST YEAR
Nov 2014: 4.3 Months; Nov 2015: 4.2 Months
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The
remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and
divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
J a n - 0 5
J u l - 0 5
J a n - …
J u l - 0 6
J a n - 0 7
J u l - 0 7
J a n - …
J u l - 0 8
J a n - …
J u l - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
J a n - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
J a n - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
J a n - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
J a n - 1 5
J u l - 1 5
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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INVENTORY DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLYIN THE BAY AREA SINCE 2009
BUT REMAINED TIGHT
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The
remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and
divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
2.3
4.34.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
Bay Area Central Valley So CA
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
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DEMAND OUTPACING SUPPLY IN ALL REGIONS
-2%-3%
4%
-5%
-10%
-8%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley
Sales Active ListingsYear-to-Year % Chg
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Nov 2015