2015 afire foreign investment survey
TRANSCRIPT
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
1/20
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Riskofprematureobsolescence
ue
o
emograp can
ec no og ca
c anges
PercentofMembers'Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mid/HiRiseApartments
CBDOffice
GardenApartments
RegionalMalls
Hotel
StripRetail
Centers
SuburbanOffice
LowR s Mo erateR s H g R s
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Ex ectedchan es
in
ca
rates
b
ear
end
2015
PercentofMembers'Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Office
Warehouse
Retail
Hotel
Multifamily
Muc Lower S g t yLower NoC ange S g t yH g er Muc H g er
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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WhenChinamaybecomethelargestsource
o
rea
es a ecap a
nves men
PercentofMembers'Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
When,ifever,doyouanticipatethatChinawillbecomethe
argestsourceo rea estatecap ta nvestment nto rea
estate?
or or eyon o e y o appen
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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AreChinesecapitalinflowscyclical
orapermanen
ma or
cap a
source
PercentofMembers'Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Do
you
think
the
recent
surge
in
investment
from
China
is
morelikelyashorttermsurgeorcyclicalinflow,aswehave
seen rommanyot ercountr es nt epast,ort e eg nn ng
ofalongperiodofhighinvestmentvolumesfromChinainto
theUSA?
or ermor yc ca n ow ong erm ermanen n ow o p n on
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Ex ectedfirst
increase
in
interest
rates
PercentofMembers'Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Whendo ouex ectthe
firstincreaseininterestrates?
or eyon
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Chan esin
ers ective
on
USA
real
estate
markets
80%
60%
70%
otes
40%
50%
fMembers'
20%
30%
Percent
0%
MorePessimistic AbouttheSame MoreOptimistic
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Countryprovidingthemoststableandsecure
rea
es a e
nves men s
70%
50%
60%
otes
30%
40%
fMembers'
10%
20%
Percent
0%
USA Germany UK Canada Switzerland
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Countryprovidingthebestopportunity
orcap a
apprec a on
70%
50%
60%
otes
30%
40%
fM
embers'
10%
20%
Percent
0%
USA Spain UK China Brazil Mexico Netherlands
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Rankin
of
lobalcities
for
real
estate
investment
35%
25%
30%
ore
15%
20%
nto
fTotalSc
5%
10%Perc
0%
NewYork London San
Francisco
Tokyo Madrid Houston Berlin Sydney Shanghai
Theresponseswerescoredwith3pointstoeachrespondentsfirstchoice,2
points
to
second
choice,
and
1
point
to
third
choice.
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
11/20
Rankin
ofUSA
cities
for
real
estate
investment
40%
30%
35%
ore
20%
25%
nto
fTotalSc
5%
10%Pere
0%
NewYork San
Francisco
Houston LosAngeles Washington
DC
Atlanta Boston Chicago Seattle
Theresponseswerescoredwith3pointstoeachrespondentsfirstchoice,2
points
to
second
choice,
and
1
point
to
third
choice.
-
7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Rankin
ofUSA
ro ert
t es
b
ear
4.5
3.5
4.0
2.0
2.5
.
ean
Score
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Theresponseswerescoredwith5pointstoeachrespondentsfirstchoice,4
points
to
second
choice,
and
so
on
down
to
1
point
to
the
fifth
choice.
u am y e a o e ce n us r a
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Rankin
ofUSA
ro ert
t es
b
ro ert
t e
4.5
3.5
4.0
2.0
2.5
.
ean
Score
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
Multifamily Retail Hotel Office Industrial
Theresponseswerescoredwith5pointstoeachrespondentsfirstchoice,4
points
to
second
choice,
and
so
on
down
to
1
point
to
the
fifth
choice.
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
14/20
Meanreal
estate
ortfolio
sizes
$25
$20
$15
Billions
19.6$10US
7.3
$0
5
Global USA
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Realestate
ortfolio
eo ra hic
distribution
PercentofMembers'Portfolios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
USA
Europe
ana a
AsiaPacific
LatinAmerica
oca on oca on < oca on o oca on
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
16/20
Plannedchan es
to
the
size
of
ortfolios
PercentofMembers'Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
USA
LatinAmerica
Europe
Canada
AsiaPacific
Major Modest Maintainor Modest MajorNet
e ncrease ncrease e nves ecrease ecrease
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Allocationof
ortfolios
b
investment
strate
or
st le
PercentofMembers'Portfolios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Core
ValueAdd
Opportunistic
Other
oca on oca on < oca on o oca on
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
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Plannedchan es
to
investment
strate
or
st le
PercentofMembers'Votes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Core
ValueAdd
MajorNet Modest Maintainor Modest MajorNet
ncrease ncrease e nves ecrease ecrease
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
19/20
Rankingofcountriesforrealestateacquisitions:
execu ons
an
p ans
PercentofTotalScore
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
USA
Germany
France
Canada
Japan
Australia
China
Theresponseswerescoredwith3pointstoeachrespondentsfirstchoice,2
points
to
second
choice,
and
1
point
for
the
third
choice.
xecu ons ans
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7/24/2019 2015 AFIRE Foreign Investment Survey
20/20
Rankingofemergingcountriesconsidered
orrea
es a e
acqu s ons
PercentofTotalVote
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Brazil
China
Mexico
Chile
Poland
Colombia
India
CzechRepublic
2013Plans 2014Plans 2015Plans
Each
member
was
allowed
to
mention
up
to
6
countries.
All
mentions
are
counted
equally
to
add
up
to
the
score
of
the
country.
rom survey rom survey romcurren survey