2015 annual housing market survey
TRANSCRIPT
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2015 ANNUAL
HOUSING MARKETSURVEY
October 29, 2015
Oscar Wei, Senior Economist
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METHODOLOGY
C.A.R. has conducted the Annual Housing Market Survey since 1981. Thequestions and methodology have stayed essentially the same throughoutthat time.
The survey was sent via email to a random sample of 25,350 REALTORS
throughout California.The sample represented the geographicaldistribution of C.A.R. membership across the state. The survey askedREALTORS to provide information from their most recent salestransaction that closed escrow in the second quarter of 2015.
The survey instrument was a questionnaire with both multiple choice andopen-ended questions. There were 1,465 valid survey responses,
equivalent to a response rate of 5.8 percent. The margin of error for thissurvey was +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
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SALES HAVE BEEN STRONG AFTER A WEAK START
California, Sep 2015 Sales: 425,030 Units, +7.3%YTD, +6.9%YTY
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualizedSERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Sep-15:425,030
Sep-14:397,490
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INVENTORY CONTINUED TODECLINE FROM LASTYEAR
Sep 2014: 4.2 Months; Sep 2015: 3.7 Months
Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. Theremaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) anddivide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-
Jul-08
Jan-
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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MARKET REMAINED COMPETITIVE,AS INVENTORY LEVEL CONTINUED TO BE LOW
53%53%
4.3
4.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
% with Multiple Offers
# of Multiple offers (Average)
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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33%33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%% of Sales above Asking Price
Long Run Average = 19%
ONE-THIRD OF HOMES SOLDABOVE THE ASKING PRICE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Med. Price Discount
Med. Weeks on MLS
0%, 2.1weeks
Median Price Discount & Weeks on Market
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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PRICE REDUCTION PRIOR TO AN OFFER BEING MADE
29%
8%
10%
13%
16%
24%
0% 20% 40%
$1,000 or less
$1001 - $5,000
$5,001 - $10,000
$10,001 - $20,000
$20,001 - $50,000
More than $50,000
Amt. of Price Reduction
Q.Was there any price reduction made to the list price prior to an offer being made to the property?Q. How much was the price reduction?
26%
75%
Price Reduction
Yes No
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Avg. Reduction $ = $15,000
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INVENTORY DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE BAY AREA SINCE 2009
BUT REMAINED TIGHT
Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. Theremaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) anddivide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.
2.5
3.6
3.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
Bay Area Central Valley So CA
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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TIGHT SUPPLY CREATED MOREMARKET COMPETITION IN THE BAY AREA
4
3 3
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
San Francisco
Bay Area
Southern
California
Other Counties in
California
Number of Multiple Offers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
36%
56%
63%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Other Counties in
California
Southern California
San Francisco Bay
Area
Percent with Multiple Offers
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IMBALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND BID UPHOME PRICES, PARTICULARLY IN THE BAY AREA
$40,000
$11,000
$6,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
SF Bay
Area
So CA Other
Counties in
CA
Amt. over Asking Price
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
20%
25%
62%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Other Counties inCA
So CA
SF Bay Area
% with Sold PriceAbove
Asking Price8.6%
2.3% 2.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
SF Bay
Area
So CA Other
Counties in
CA
% over Asking Price
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REASONS FOR BUYING
Q. What was the single most important reason for buying the property?
23%
19%
16%
14%
5%
4%
4%
4%
1%
11%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Tired of Renting
Desired Larger Home
Desired Better Location
Investment/ Tax Considerations
Change in Family Status
Changed Jobs
Retirement/Move to Retirement Community
Desired Smaller Home
Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default
Other
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT & SECOND/ VACATIONHOMES DROPPEDTO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2009
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Vacation/Second Home
Investment/Rental
Property
% toTotal Sales
5%
Long Run Average: 12 %
13%
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INVESTOR STRATEGY: STILL BUYING TO RENT
Investment to Flip
Rental Property
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SHARE OF CASH BUYERS IS THE LOWEST SINCE 2009
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35% % ofAllCash Sales
One-fifth of buyers paid with all cash
The share of all cash buyers is the
lowest in the last 6 years
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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THE SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL BUYERS DROPPEDTO THE LOWEST LEVEL IN 8YEARS
4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q. Was the buyer an international buyer a person who was a citizen of another country who wished topurchase residential real estate in the U.S.?
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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ALL CASH INTERNATIONAL BUYERS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%100%
International Buyers Domestic Buyers
42%20%
59%73%
All cash Obtained financing
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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INTENDED USE FOR PROPERTY? HOME
2%
21%
76%
6%
13%
82%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Vacation/Second Home
Investment Property
Primary Residence
Domestic Buyers
International Buyers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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71%
14%
6% 4% 2% 4%
72%
12%6%
3% 2% 5%
77%
9%5%
3% 1% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0 1 2 3 4 5 or more
2013
20142015
# of Properties Sold to International Buyers in the Last 12 Months
% Who Sold to International Buyers
Q. How many properties have you sold to an international buyer in the last 12 months?SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
REALTORS WORKED WITH INTERNATIONAL BUYERSIN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
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COUNTRY OF INTERNATIONAL BUYER
China (43%)
Mexico (8%)
South Korea (8%)
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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REASONS TO BUY IN CALIFORNIA
Mild year-around weather Advanced Educational Opportunities
System # of Campuses
Examples
Universityof California 10 Universityof California,Berkeley
Universityof California, LosAngeles
Universityof California,Riverside
Universityof California, SanDiego
CaliforniaStateUniversity
23 Cal State University,Fullerton
Cal State University,Northridge
Cal State PolytechnicUniversity, Pomona
California CommunityCollege
109+ Santa Monica College Pasadena City College
Private University Hundreds California Institute ofTechnology
Pepperdine University Stanford University Universityof Southern
California
Amazing outdoor environment
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SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS REMAINSBELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE
29.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average
Long Run Average = 38%
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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REASONS FOR BUYINGFIRST-TIME VS. REPEAT
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
55%
10%
9%
8%
7%
3%
1%
0%
1%
7%
9%
23%
19%
16%
4%
5%
5%
5%
1%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Tired of Renting
Desired Larger Home
Desired Better Location
Investment/ Tax Considerations
Change in Family Status
Changed Jobs
Retirement/Move to Retirement Community
Desired Smaller Home
Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default
Other
First-Time Buyers
Repeat Buyers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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THE MEDIAN DOWN PAYMENT INCHED UP FROM 2014
$74,500
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Median Down Payment % of Down Payment to Price
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Q. What was the amount of downpayment?
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11.3%
6.4%
6.9%
3.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
All Hombuyers First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers
Down Payment
PERCENT OF BUYERS WITH ZERO DOWN PAYMENT
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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PROPORTION OF TRANSACTIONS WITH SECONDMORTGAGES
Q. In addition to the first mortgage or assumption, was there a second mortgage?
4.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent of Home Sales with Second Mortgage
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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PERCENT OF BUYERS WITH SECOND MORTGAGE
6.4%
3.7%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage.
WHILE THE SHARE OF FHA INCREASED FROM THERECENT LOW, IT WAS STILL MUCH LOWER THAN 2009
16% 19%
7%5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
FHA VA
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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YEARS OWNED HOME BEFORE SELLING
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12 All Sellers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Why arent they selling sooner?
Affordability challenge: Low rate on current mortgage
Low property taxes
Concerned with capital gains
Why list when there is nowhereto go I can afford?
Could not qualify for amortgage today
Demographics
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56%
$1,500
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% needs Repair Median Repair Costs/Price Adjustment
REPAIR COSTS/PRICE ADJUSTMENTS
Q. Did the seller repair items, make adjustments to the purchase price, or make any other concessions duringescrow due to discovered defects?SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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SELLERS WITH NET CASH LOSS DROPPED TO THELOWEST LEVEL IN THE LAST 9YEARS
6.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Long Run Average = 11.9%
Q.What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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NET CASH GAIN TO SELLERS HIGHEST SINCE 2007
$120,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Q.What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
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MORE INVESTORS SELLING THEIRINVESTMENT PROPERTIES
23.4%
26.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Long Run Average = 19.1%
Q. How was the property occupied?SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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MORE THAN HALF OF ALL SELLERSARE PLANNING TO BUY ANOTHER HOME
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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LOCATION OF SELLERS NEW HOME
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Within the same county 38% 41% 37% 45% 47% 42% 49% 49% 46% 44% 44%
In another county in
California 23% 18% 24% 17% 21% 21% 19% 18% 20% 21% 20%
In another state 31% 28% 29% 27% 19% 20% 20% 22% 19% 22% 22%
Out of US 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%
Don't Know/Not sure 7% 11% 9% 10% 12% 16% 10% 10% 15% 13% 13%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
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REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTYALL BUYERS (2014 VS. 2015)
14%
16%
5%
10%
9%
13%
8%
3%
3%
18%
23%
14%
10%
10%
10%
8%
7%
5%
0%
14%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Housing affordability
Quality of life
Second home
Shorter commute to work/school
Job change
Closer to family/relative
Quality of school
Retired
Quality of community services
Other
2014 2015
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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BUYERS BY GENERATION
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
32%Millennials1 8 3 5
40%GenX3 6 5 0
24%Baby Boomers5 1 6 9
5%Silent Gen70 and older
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HOME OWNERSHIP RATE NEARLY 4 TIMES HIGHERAMONG BOOMERS
Baby Boomers
75%
22%
3%
Own
Rent
Other
Millennials
20%
41%
39%
Own
Rent
Other
Q. What is your current living situation?SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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REASONS FOR BUYINGMILLENNIALS VS. BABY BOOMERS
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
41%
18%
11%
10%
6%
6%
0%
0%
1%
7%
13%
13%
18%
16%
5%
3%
10%
7%
0%
14%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Tired of Renting
Desired Larger Home
Desired Better Location
Investment/ Tax Considerations
Change in Family Status
Changed Jobs
Retirement/Move to Retirement Community
Desired Smaller Home
Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default
Other
Millennials
Baby Boomers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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BOOMERS HAVE LESS DEBT THAN MILLENNIALSTHAT PREVENTS BUYING A HOME
Q.What type of debt do you have that would make it difficult to buy a home?
35%
12%
7%
2%
11%
53%
41%
17%
8%
7%
4%
43%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Credit cards
Auto loan
Consolidated personal loan
Private loan from friend/ relative
Other
None
Millennials
Boomers
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS:MILLENNIALS VS. BABY BOOMERS
Millennials Baby Boomers
Median Household Income $100,000 $130,000
Median Home Price $470,000 $505,000
Median Monthly Mortgage Payment $1,538 $1,516
Median Downpayment (in $$) $50,000 $79,500
Median Downpayment (in % to Price) 13.1% 20%
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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USE OF PROPERTY
Q. How will the property be occupied?
92.8%
70.1%81.6%
5.8%
17.3% 13.1%
1.4%
12.6%
5.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Millennials Baby Boomers All
Primary Residence Investment Property Vacation/Second Home
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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WHAT MILLENNIALS AND BABY BOOMERS WANT?
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Millennials Baby Boomers All Buyers
Median Sales Price $470,000 $505,000 $495,000
Median Square Footage 1,600 1,779 1,707
Median Age of Structure 36 33 35
% of Detached Single-Family 75.6% 71.6% 76.6%
% of Condo/Townhome 19.8% 17.5% 15.5%
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DEMOGRAPHICS: ETHNICITY
56%
17%
14%
10%4%
White
Asian
Hispanic
Other
Black
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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HOUSING DEMAND WILL INCREASE,LARGELY DRIVEN BY MINORITIES
SOURCE: Urban Institute
2.7 4.6 2.2 2.18.9 11.6
1.3 4.8 1.9 2.5
9.1 10.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
White Hispanic Black, Non-
Hispanic
Other, Non-
Hispanic
Total Minority Total
Projected household growth, 2010-2010
Projected household growth, 2020-2030
Net new households, millions
23%
46%39%
18%12%
18%19%
100%
100%
88%77%
24%
2010-2020
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SHARE OF MINORITY HOME BUYERSHAS GROWN OVER TIME
Q. What was the race/ethnicity of the head of household buying the property
68.5%
5.0%
14.1%
7.5%
55.8%
4.2%
19.9%
12.5%
56.3%
3.6%
14.0% 16.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
White/Non-Hispanic African-American Hispanic Asian
1995 2005 2015
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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SHARE OF MINORITY HOME SELLERSALSO HAS GROWN OVER TIME
Q. What was the race/ethnicity of the head of household buying the property
86.7%
2.0% 4.1% 4.6%
70.8%
4.7%10.4% 9.7%
70.7%
3.2%8.6% 8.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
White/Non-Hispanic African-American Hispanic Asian
1995 2005 2015
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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REASONS FOR BUYINGMINORITY BUYERS VS. ALL BUYERS
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Tired of Renting
Desired Larger Home
Desired Better Location
Investment/ Tax Considerations
Change in Family Status
Changed Jobs
Retirement/Move to Retirement Community
Desired Smaller Home
Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default
Other
All Buyers Minority Buyers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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REASONS FOR BUYINGHISPANIC BUYERS VS. ASIAN BUYERS
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Tired of Renting
Desired Larger Home
Desired Better Location
Investment/ Tax Considerations
Change in Family Status
Changed Jobs
Retirement/Move to Retirement Community
Desired Smaller Home
Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default
Other
Hispanic Buyers Asian Buyers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS UP
Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
38.8%
45.7%
33.0%29.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Minority Hispanic Asian All
% First-Time Home Buyers
Minority Hispanic Asian All
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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USE OF PROPERTY
Q. How will the property be occupied?
82.1% 89.3%
75.4% 81.6%
14.3%
7.7%
18.6% 13.1%
3.6% 3.0% 6.0% 5.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Minority Hispanic Asian All
Primary Residence Investment Property Vacation/Second Home
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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CHARACTERISTICS OF HOMES
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
MinorityBuyers
HispanicBuyers
AsianBuyers
All Buyers
Median Sales Price $467,000 $324,000 $675,000 $495,000
Median Square Footage 1,700 1,600 1,783 1,707
Median Age of Structure 35 30 35 35
% of Detached Single-Family 78.7% 85.0% 75.6% 76.6%
% of Condo/Townhome 14.8% 9.8% 18.0% 15.5%
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BUYERS FINANCIAL PROFILE I
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
MinorityBuyers
HispanicBuyers
AsianBuyers
All Buyers
Median Household Income $100,000 $80,000 $170,000 $120,000
Median Monthly Mortgage
Payment $1,673 $1,443 $1,969 $1,669
Median Downpayment (in $$) $60,500 $13,875 $120,000 $74,500
Median Downpayment (in % toPrice)
18.4% 5.0% 20.2% 19.6%
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BUYERS FINANCIAL PROFILE II
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
MinorityBuyers
HispanicBuyers
AsianBuyers
All Buyers
% of buyers with zero down payment 4.2% 7.4% 2.1% 4.4%
% of cash buyers 17.6% 11.3% 25.7% 21.0%
% of home buyers with a second mortgage 4.1% 3.9% 4.5% 4.1%
% with FHA Loan 25.9% 46.3% 8.6% 19.3%
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REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTY(ALL BUYERS VS. MINORITY BUYERS)
23%
14%
10%
10%
10%
8%
7%
5%
0%
14%
39%
9%
4%
14%
7%
5%
9%
1%
1%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Housing affordability
Quality of life
Second home
Shorter commute to work/school
Job change
Closer to family/relative
Quality of school
Retired
Quality of community services
Other
All Buyers Minority Buyers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTYMINORITY BUYERS (2014 VS. 2015)
23%
11%
3%
8%
6%
16%
12%
1%
2%
19%
39%
9%
4%
14%
7%
5%
9%
1%
1%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Housing affordability
Quality of life
Second home
Shorter commute to work/school
Job change
Closer to family/relative
Quality of school
Retired
Quality of community services
Other
2014 2015
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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HOW CLIENT FOUND THEIR AGENT
Q. How did your client find and select you to represent them?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Represented Them in Previous Home Transaction
Referral from a client
Client was Friend/Relative/Neighbor
Recommendations of Friends
Refferal from Business Associates
Web page/InternetOpen House
Walk in /Floor Call
Door-to-Door Farming
Direct Mail Marketing
Yard Signs
Listing Agent for Home Purchased
Relocation Referral
Print Ads/Newspaper & MagazineSocial Media
Telephone Marketing
Other
All Buyers Minority Buyers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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HOW CLIENT FOUND THEIR AGENT
Q. How did your client find and select you to represent them?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Represented Them in Previous Home Transaction
Referral from a client
Client was Friend/Relative/Neighbor
Recommendations of Friends
Refferal from Business Associates
Web page/InternetOpen House
Walk in /Floor Call
Door-to-Door Farming
Direct Mail Marketing
Yard Signs
Listing Agent for Home Purchased
Relocation Referral
Print Ads/Newspaper & MagazineSocial Media
Telephone Marketing
Other
Hispanic Buyers Asian Buyers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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BUYERS NEED MOST HELP WITHFINDING THE RIGHT HOME
12%
3%
12%
18%
20%
38%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Other
Determining affordability
Preparing transaction documents
Price Negotiation
Negotiating terms of sale
Finding the right home
Q: In what part of the transaction buyer/seller needed the most assistance?
SERIES: 2015 Annual Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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SELLERS NEED MOST HELP WITHNEGOTIATING TERMS OF SALE
7%
10%
12%
16%
17%
18%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Other
Negotiating the price
Preparing transaction documents
Preparing the home for sale
Marketing the property
Setting the right price
Negotiating terms of sale
Q: In what part of the transaction buyer/seller needed the most assistance?
SERIES: 2015 Annual Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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2016 FORECAST
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CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015p 2016f
SFH Resales (000s) 416.5 422.6 439.8 414.9 383.3 407.5 433.0
% Change -12.3% 1.4% 4.1% -5.9% -7.6% 6.3% 6.3%
Median Price ($000s) $305.0 $286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $447.0 $476.3 $491.3
% Change 10.9% -6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 9.8% 6.5% 3.2%
Housing Affordability
Index 48% 53% 51% 36% 30% 31% 27%
30-Yr FRM 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 4.5%
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
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