2015 global & japan ict outlook€¦mobile network computerized ... as a data only mvno (paid by...

2015 Global & Japan ICT Outlook

2

Agenda

Introduction – What to Expect from the ICT Industry in 2015

• Smart Devices

• Wearable Technology

• Mobile Carrier Business

• Digital Economy

• E-Commerce

• Social Media

• Artificial Intelligence

• Security

• Cloud Computing

• Big Data Analytics

• Unified Communications

• Internet of Things

• The Office of the Future

• 3D Printing

Consumer ICT Trends Enterprise ICT Trends

ICT “Megatrends”

3

ICT MEGATRENDS

3

4

ICT Japan “Megatrend” – Tokyo Olympics

Shinkansen SCMaglev

Satellite

Broadcast

Broadcast

in Color

Super Hi

Vision (8K)

40 TB Hard

Drive

Self Driving Cars

1GBPS

Mobile

Network

Computerized

Scoring

Quartz

Wristwatch

5

ICT Japan “Megatrend” – “Abenomics”

Abenomics has rendered a significantly weaker yen which is expected to remain

weak in 2015. Japanese companies are benefiting from being able to sell ICT

products overseas at a lower price.

6

Trend: Internet of Things

When two auto makers both had a recall for a similar issue, IoT made a crucial

difference in the customer experience and cost savings.

In January of 2014 the US government asked Tesla and GM to recall certain

models of cars due to a risk of fire coming from faulty spark plugs.

All of Telsa’s cars include 3G service

as a data only MVNO (paid by Tesla)

GM’s trucks did not have

internet access

29,000 cars fixed automatically via a

software upgrade

380,000 cars taken manually to

dealerships

7

Taxonomy of Internet of Things

Mature

Translation Connectivity Platforms Objects Applications

• Consumer electronics • Phones • Appliances

• Sensing devices • Sensors

• Actuators • Embedded

Controllers • Virtual Objects

• Bitcoins • Avatars, digital

goods

Developing Area • Wearable devices

• Wireless sensor networks and capture devices • QR codes and

barcodes readers

• NFC reader • Bluetooth

• Wireless transmitting devices

• Chipsets • Modules • OEM

• Personal Computers & Smart phones

Developing Area

• Zigbee, Z-wave

• Wired & Wireless Networks

• Enterprise & SP Gateways

• Network Management • IP Multimedia

Subsystems

Developing Area • Heterogeneous

networks • Self organizing

networks

• Software defined networks

• Data Centers • Data storage and

management

• Discovery management

• Identity management • Device management

• Performance Management

Developing Area

• Charging and billing • Security and access

management • Big Data Processing

and Analytics

• Workflow and Process Automation

• Applications • Domain specific

applications

• Enterprise application (ERP, CRM, SCM)

• Social networking apps

Developing Area • Analytics • Rules engine

• Contextual analytics

• Visualization • Orchestration

Developing Emerging Mature Mature

* Denotes IoT Solution Maturity Level

Digitizing and capturing characteristics of objects

IoT and M2M encompasses an end-to-end solution that captures, transports and

analyze data which can be categorized into 5 distinct layers:

7

8 8

IoT Market Size and Growth Rates Across Key Verticals

US$20.0Bn

(Spending: 2014)

31.3% (CAGR: 2014-2019)

Transportation &

Logistics Healthcare

US$0.9Bn

(Spending: 2014)

45.4% (CAGR: 2014-2019)

Utilities

US$1.6Bn

(Spending: 2014)

20.7% (CAGR: 2014-2019)

Construction

US$0.4Bn

(Spending: 2014)

40.0% (CAGR: 2014-2019)

Consumer

Segment

US$4.8Bn

(Spending: 2014)

63.7% (CAGR: 2014-2019)

Public

Security

US$3.3Bn

(Spending: 2014)

43.8% (CAGR: 2014-2019)

Manufacturing

US$2.6Bn

(Spending: 2014)

60.3% (CAGR: 2014-2019)

Wholesale & Retail

US$2.1Bn

(Spending: 2014)

35.0% (CAGR: 2014-2019)

Finance

US$0.5Bn

(Spending: 2014)

33.9% (CAGR: 2014-2019)

Note: Market size is based on spending on the IoT modules. It does not include the entire ICT spending for the respective sectors.

Please refer to the appendix for the methodology.

9

Introduction to Big Data Analytics

Big Data Analytics as an industry is gaining a lot of attention not only to the growth

in global data traffic but the proven benefits of using such technologies.

Source: IBM.

Big Data Human Tracking Big Data Ebola Outbreak Tracking

10

Industry Definitions



11




12




13




14

Japan Big Data Market To

tal M

ark

et S

ize

(U

S$

m)

Japan’s government aims to revise laws regarding it to relax regulations for using

big data by 2015 which should boost the market size.

Japan Big Data Market Sizing

2011-2016

Global Big Data Revenue Distribution

2013

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

15




16




17




18




19




20

INDUSTRY APPLICATIONS

20

21

Industry

Big Data/Analytics are slowly entering the Japanese market in a variety of

industries such as retail and consumer electronics.


Product Impact

Consumer information is collected

when beverages are purchased

and subsequently choices are

offered to buyers based on age,

sex etc.

Toshiba can accurately predict

when a HDD will malfunction

within 3 months by collecting

status data of operation and

temperature via PC health monitor

which is installed in the PC, and

referring repair record database.

Retail

(JR East)

Consumer

Electronics

(Toshiba)

Japan Big Data Market


22

Hitachi Business Microscope

Wearable technology is also moving into the workplace in Japan.


Hitachi Business Microscope Impact

Hitachi Business Microscope is a

smart wearable device designed to

increase office productivity. The

device can track how often

employees meet and create an

organizational diagram.

The device can also monitor how

often employees speak in

meetings, take breaks etc. in an

effort to improve overall office

productivity.

23

Big Data Analytics in Wearable Technology

Industry

Big Data Analytics is creating new business models in the wearable technology

space.


Device Impact

US Oil Company British petroleum

has given 30,000 employees a

free FitBit device. If an employees

logs 1.5 million steps a credit is

given on their insurance policy.

US Automotive company

Progressive offers a device which

can be placed in a car to monitor

driving behavior. The average

user who uses the device saves

US$150 per year

Health

Insurance

Automotive

Insurance

24

Big Data Analytics in Social Media/Logistics

Web 2.0 companies are also starting to use analytics, notably in order for predictive

analyses which result in better-targeted e-commerce offerings.

Source: Facebook.

Amazon “Anticipatory Shipping” Patent Facebook Predictive Analysis Example

Source: Amazon.

25

Big Data Analytics in Media


26

Big Data Analytics in Telecom

Verizon Wireless is using big data and analytics to offer consumer data to a variety

of B2C businesses.

27

Big Data Analytics in Telecom

Verizon Wireless is using big data and analytics to offer consumer data to a variety

of B2C businesses.

Source: Verizon Wireless.

28

CONSUMER ICT TRENDS

28

29

Trend: Smart Devices U

ser

Penetr

ation (

%)

Selected Smartphone & Tablet User Penetration Metrics, 2014E

Smartphone ownership stands at roughly 70% in most Western and Developed

Asian markets, with Japan being roughly 71% in 2014.


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Smartphone Users Tablet Users

30

Trend: Smart Devices (continued)

2013: 930m Shipments

Overall smartphone shipments are still growing at the global level and are expected

to grow further in 2015.

Chinese players are taking an increasing share of the smartphone market.


Samsung, 33%

Apple, 17%

Chinese Tier 1

Vendors, 16%

Sony, 4%

Others, 30% Samsung, 28%

Apple, 16% Chinese Tier 1 Vendors, 29%

Sony, 4%

Others, 23%

Samsung, 27%

Apple, 16% Chinese Tier 1 Vendors, 32%

Sony, 3%

Others, 22%

Note: Chinese Tier 1 Vendors include Xiaomi, Lenovo, Huawai, ZTE, Coolpad and TCL.

2014: 1,250m Shipments 2015: 1,360m Shipments

31

Trend: Wearable Technology

Wearable Technology Sales by Product Type 2014 & 2019E

Wearable technology is still in its infancy but is expected to continue to develop in

2015. Smartwatches will become an important part of the market from next year


Smartwatches, 12%

Wristbands, 66%

Wearable Cameras, 19%

Accessories, 2%

Glass, 0%

Others, 1%

Smartwatches, 55%

Wristbands, 25%

Wearable Cameras, 10%

Accessories, 5%

Glass, 3% Others, 5%

2014 Sales: 25m 2019 Sales: 200m

32

Trend: Wearable Technology (continued)

Future Trends Driving the Wearable Technology Market in 2015

Wearable technology will continue to evolve with new segments being explored in

2015.

More focus will be given to ear-focused wearable

technology in 2015 for the healthcare market before

moving to more advanced applications.

Apple acquired music service Beats in 2014 for US$3.2

bn. The move also includes their hardware group

suggesting that Apple is exploring connected headsets.

Microsoft has unveiled a beta version of real time, free

translation for Skype users. The technology is being

developed for the wearable technology market.

Google glass has been pulled from the consumer market

after much fanfare. Development will continue for the

corporate market which still holds much promise.

“H

ea

rab

les”

Be

ats

Tra

nsla

tio

n

Go

og

le

Gla

ss

33

Trend: Mobile Network Business Tota

l AR

PU

(JP

Y)

NTT DoCoMo Voice & Data ARPU 2Q2009-2Q2014

Voice usage has fallen significantly in Japan due to OTT applications and market

rebalancing of pricing plans. Operators will need to expedite plans for a post-voice

market.


2,6

00

2,5

90

2,5

60

2,5

60

2,5

90

2,6

00

2,6

00

2,6

10

2,6

40

2,7

10

2,7

00

2,6

80

2,6

60

2,6

70

2,7

20

2,6

90

2,6

80

2,6

70

2,6

40

2,6

00

2,6

70

2620

3,0

10

2,9

70

3,0

40

2,5

90

2,6

70

2,6

60

2,5

80

2,1

80

2,3

40

2,2

90

2,2

10

2,0

10

1,9

00

1,8

10

1,7

10

1,5

20

1,4

70

1,4

30

1,3

70

1,2

20

1,2

50

1,1

90

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Data ARPU Voice ARPU

34

Trend: The Digital Economy

What do all these companies have in common?

15

22

24

31

36

38

39

0 10 20 30 40

Nintendo

Marriott

Twitter

Yum Brands

American Airlines

Delta

Kraft Foods

2014 Market Capitalization (US$bn)

35

15

22

24

31

36

38

39

41

0 10 20 30 40 50

Nintendo

Marriott

Twitter

Yum Brands

American Airlines

Delta

Kraft Foods

Uber


All of these companies are worth less than Uber!

2014 Market Capitalization (US$bn) •Uber is a SF based taxi

reservation app which is

roughly 4 years old.

•The company takes a 20%

revenue share on rides

arranged through the app and

generates ~US$2bn per year.

•Uber claims that they

generate US$500m in the SF

Bay area while the local taxi

industry makes US$140m per

year.

36


All of these companies are worth less than Uber!

•Mixi was the largest

social network in Japan

for years before being

eclipsed by Facebook in

2012.

•The company had a

significant turnaround

after publishing a social

game “Monster Strike”

which became #1 in

Japan with 7m MAU.

•The company is now the

5th largest game

publisher in the world.

Mixi Revenue Composition 1Q2012-2Q2014

Monster Strike

37

Ten Largest eCommerce Markets, 2014

US$ billions

Global eCommerce revenues surpassed US$1.2 trillion in 20134led by the US and

China. Online retail comprises between 2% and 14% of total retail in large markets

Online Retail as a % of Total Retail, 2014

19

28

30

33

35

53

139

140

180

300

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Brazil

Canada

South Korea

France

Australia

Germany

Japan

UK

China

US

1.9%

5.2%

12.1%

6.0%

5.5%

6.5%

5.0%

13.5%

7.8%

5.7%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Brazil

Canada

South Korea

France

Australia

Germany

Japan

UK

China

US


Trend: eCommerce

38

Trend: eCommerce (continued)

Singles Day, Black Friday & Cyber Monday eCommerce Sales, 2012-2014

eCommerce sales continue to soar globally but especially in China. eCommerce

revenue on “Singles Day” in China topped US$9bn in 2014.


3.04

5.75

9.34

1.04 1.2 1.51

1.98 2.29

2.65

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2012 2013 2014

Singles Day (China) Black Friday (US) Cyber Monday (US)

Tota

l S

ale

s (

US

$bn)

39

Trend: Social Media

Although well-documented, Indonesia remains one of the most prolific markets for

social media participation globally while Japan is very conservative.

40

ENTERPRISE ICT TRENDS

40

41

The market for AI is growing exponentially and will grow from US$6.3bn in 2014 to US41.1bn in

2024.

$3,508

$7,055

$12,433

$1,282

$3,582

$13,927

$585

$2,175

$8,075

$425

$877

$2,095

$492

$1,590

$4,685

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

2014 2019 2024

Expert Systems Autonomous Robots Digital Assistants Embedded Systems Neurocomputers

Global AI Market By Service Area, 2014, 2019 & 2024 (US$m)

US$6.3bn

US$15.3bn

US$41.1bn

Trend: Artificial Intelligence

42

Trend: Security

Cyberattacks have been growing exponentially with over 43m recorded in 2014.

The average damage from a security breach was US$2.7m in 2014

Source: Frost & Sullivan., Hackmadeddon.

Recorded Enterprise Cyber Attacks, 2009-2014

4

10

23 25

30

43

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tota

l C

ybera

ttack

Incid

ents

(m

illio

ns)

Government, 27%

Industry, 25% Finance, 16%

Non-profit, 8%

News, 7%

Education, 6%

Others, 11%

Cyber Attacks by Industry, 2014

Trend: Security

43

Trend: Cloud Computing

New Approach

“What would have taken several hundred hours, I can now do that on my Mac Pro…I may not create certain effects because I

can’t afford [or don’t have] the render time.” -VFX Artist

““We knew we didn’t have the budget for a large data center. But we didn’t want to be a data center company, we wanted to be a

creative company.” -Hollywood Executive

Previous Approach

Render farm: Huge datacenters store

thousands of hours of footage requiring huge

fixed costs

Thousands of CPUs work together to render a

single shot, angle or screen

Increasing capacity difficult and time consuming

– effects limited to time/capacity at hand

No Render farm: Everything

hosted in the cloud

10,000 hours on 100 machines =

1 hour on 1,000,000 machines

Examples

Licensing: Expensive Graphics Processor Unit

hardware & licensing costs

Capacity can be cheaply scaled

to meet deadlines/requirements

Licensing: New

hardware/licensing not needed

44

Trend: 3D Printing

Global 3D Printing Patent Ecosystem 2014

Japan holds the third-most patents for 3D printing technology, and is still has a very

viable future in the global market.

2015 global & japan ict outlook€¦mobile network computerized ... as a data only mvno (paid by...

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