2015 san diego and national economic update july 24 2015
TRANSCRIPT
2015 Comprehensive Economic Update. July 24, 2015
Evan Donaldson Principal Technical Solutions Officer - Talentry
Introductions
Evan Donaldson Principal Technical Solutions Officer for Telentry So. Cal. Professional since 1985 • Placed hundreds of professionals in the San Diego, Orange
County, and national market • Provided professional services consulting solutions saving
companies millions of dollars • Recognized as an expert on maximizing outcomes through people
and process • Extensive experience with training, employer branding, and
designing elegant and novel solutions
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Talentry overview ! Talentry is a Professional Services, Project Management, Training, and Staff Augmentation
company based in San Diego, CA
! Talentry’s employees are tenured solutions providers, with deep networks, and extensive client successes.
! Together we provide solutions focused on the intersection of people and technology, with a focus on IT, Scientific, and Engineering professionals.
! Call us when you: ! Need a professional to help assess your technology and recommend or architect a vendor neutral solution ! Have systems that don’t work together ! Need new highly qualified technical staff ! Feel your vendors are “squeezing” you ! Have a client deadline that you are worried about meeting ! Need to develop software ! Want to go to the cloud
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Economic Trends
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• Consumer Price Index (CPI): (measures changes in the price level
of consumer goods and services purchased by households.) + 0.3% in June 2015 (+ 0.2% minus food/energy. +0.1% ttm)
• Unemployment Rate: 5.3% in June (-0.2%)
• Payroll Employment: +223,000 in June (Avg +250k ttm) Prof services, Temp Services, architectural, engineering, computers. Mining (-)
• Average Hourly Earnings: - 0.4% in June (-0.2% $0.07 May to June. = $24.46.hr)
• Producer Price Index (PPI): (measures average changes in prices
received by domestic producers for their output.) +0.4% in June 2015
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• Employment Cost Index (ECI): (quarterly economic series detailing the changes in the
costs of labor for businesses in the United States economy) +0.7% in 1st Qtr of 2015 (new data out end of July)
• Productivity: real output / hours worked
- 3.1% in 1st Qtr of 2015 (new data out end of July) • U.S. Import Price Index: Tracks changes in the prices paid for goods imported to the
United States . The figure is significant in relation to the trade balance, the difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive trade balance (surplus) acts as an appreciating weight on the dollar, reflecting demand for dollars in exchange for exports. Conversely, a negative value (deficit) puts
downward pressure on the dollar's value -0.1% in June 2015 - primarily non-fuel (fuel rose)
• U.S. Export Price Index: Tracks price changes of U.S. export goods. The figure is used to determine whether a change in the headline Export figure is representative of an increase of goods sold to foreign nations or just an increase in the price of export goods -0.2% in June 2015 - Primarily falling agricultural prices
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Retail Sales: U.S. retail sales fell 0.3% in June (but up 1.4% over the previous June) General merchandise and electronics sales were up. Building materials and Clothing lead the declines. (The Census Bureau report reports both volume and price increases.) FOMC: The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic conditions to determine whether expansionary or contractionary monetary policy is needed. It issues forecasts at four of those meetings.
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FOMC: Minutes from the June 17, 2015 meeting: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown some improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports; energy prices appear to have stabilized. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
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VISTAGE CEO Confidence
Index
July 9, 2015
SAN DIEGO (July 9, 2015) — According to the Q2 2015 Vistage CEO Confidence Index Survey (http://www.vistage.com/press-center/vistage-ceo-survey/), CEOs plan on adding fewer workers to their payroll despite cautious optimism about economic improvement. “If the recession taught us anything, it’s that it’s better to be prudent than over-optimistic,” said Dr. Richard Curtin, economist at University of Michigan. “We’re seeing a shift in attitude, and CEOs are not anticipating the same strong economic rebound that occurred in the second half of last year.”
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San Diego Trends
USD’s Burnham-Moores Center through May 2015
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June 30, 2015 -- The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.5 percent in May. Leading the gain were sharp increases in building permits and the outlook for the national economy, while initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising experienced more moderate gains. On the downside, there was a big drop in local stock prices and a slight decline in consumer confidence.
San Diego Trends
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The USD Index has now increased every month for an entire year. May’s increase was the smallest since October of last year and featured two declining components, the first time that has happened since August 2014. But the change was still positive and a majority of the components were positive. Therefore, the outlook for the local economy remains unchanged from what has been indicated in recent reports: strong growth in the local economy for the rest of 2015 and at least through the early part of 2016. One thing that could disrupt this positive outlook would be turmoil in the international economy, such as the possibility that Greece would default on its debt payments and would have to leave the European Union (EU). Greece by itself is not a significant player in the world economy, but it could foreshadow problems in other European economies such as Portugal, Italy, and Spain. San Diego is not a major financial center and doesn’t have a strong connection to the EU, so direct impacts would be small.
San Diego Trends
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance and help wanted advertising have now increased for 13 and 10 consecutive months respectively. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate was 5.2 percent in May, which was up from 5.1 percent in April but down from 6.5 percent in May 2014. Once again, the non-seasonally adjusted rate was below 5 percent. But May is the third best month of the year for the unemployment rate, so seasonal adjustment pushed the rate back above 5 percent. . . Consumers and investors both turned gloomy in May.
San Diego Trends
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Q&A, further discussion.
Contact information: • Evan Donaldson • [email protected] • 619-227-5858 • @Evanduz
Talentry, LLC., an organization that supplies consulting, training, headhunting, workforce optimization analysis, staff augmentation, and project management for companies dedicated to maximizing their effectiveness by enhancing their biggest asset - their people. www.talentry.net