2016-06 shoe store employment update - fdra
TRANSCRIPT
Women's Hiring Behind Record Hourly Wages for Shoe Stores
Amid a tightening US labor market and burgeoning footwear sales, shoe store retailers are offering record pay to attract and retain workers, with the sector's workforce seeing a marked shift to hiring relatively more women than men. Recently the federal government reported its latest read on the country's employment situation, noting the unemployment rate fell in May to just 4.7%, the lowest in eight and a half years. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose a year-‐over-‐year 2.5%. While much of the report fell short of expectations, the long-‐term trends of a gradually tightening labor market and rising wages remain intact.
As the national unemployment rate falls and earnings rise, we see similar trends in shoe stores. At a seasonally-‐adjusted record of $17.44, average hourly earnings in the sector rose a year-‐over-‐year 1.8% in April, higher 39 of the last 43 months. As the graph below demonstrates, higher wages come as employment in the sector grows, rising a year-‐over-‐year 1.0% to a seasonally-‐adjusted 210,900 workers. This marks the highest April employment on record, matching the largest April shoe store sales on record as FDRA recently reported. (If you do not currently receive FDRA’s monthly Footwear Sales Analysis report and would like to do so, please contact us at [email protected])
Average Hourly Wages in Shoe Stores Rise to a Record to Attract & Retain Workers…
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
215
220
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
17.00
17.50
18.00
Thou
sand
s (SA)
Dollars per Hou
r (SA
)
Hourly Earnings # Employees
Source: BLS
Within both the growth in shoe store employment and record hourly wages paid is a notable shift to more female workers. At a near-‐record 126,200, the number of women employed in the sector climbed a robust 7.3% in April from a year earlier, the 19th straight increase. At the same time, the male shoe store labor force sagged again in this latest month to just 84,700, the fewest in two and a half years. As a result, women now account for nearly 60% of shoe store workers, the highest share in several years.
…as Women’s Hiring Climbs to a Near Record, while Men’s Sags to a 30-‐Month Low
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Thou
sand
Employees
Men Women
Source: BLS
Looking ahead, improving prospects for shoe store sales imply demand for workers will remain strong and wages may remain elevated. FDRA continues to expect growth in shoe store sales will accelerate in 2016 after slowing each of the last few years. Naturally, improved footwear demand likely will prompt more hiring to staff stores. Coupled with a gradually tighter nationwide labor market, stores' efforts to attract and retain workers will likely boost average hourly earnings beyond today's record. After a relatively dull start to the year, it remains to be seen if retail shoe prices will climb appreciably in 2016 to offset these anticipated rising labor costs, providing a bit of breathing room to retailers' margins.