Abstract The combination of triathlon and training presents a huge market opportunity for new business

models. In entrepreneurship, the Lean Startup concept has gained significant popularity

providing a scientific and structured process to use continuous innovation to create radically

successful businesses. Seizing the opportunity presented, the vision on which this thesis is build

is to help people train better while creating a sustainable business according to LS principles.

Focused on the customer discovery process, this paper identifies the smallest solution with the

most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase by validating the customer,

problem and solution hypotheses.

Keywords: Lean Startup, Customer Development, Validated Learning, Triathlon

Table of Contents

Abstract II

List of Abbreviations III

1. Introduction 1

2. Literature Review 2

3. Lean Startup Methodology 4

3.1. Basic Principles Guiding Lean Startups 4

3.2. The Lean Startup Process 6

4. Ressearch Methodology 7

5. Analysis 10

5.1. Testing Market Interested in new Triathlon and Training BMs 10

5.2. Customer-Problem Discovery 11

5.2.1. Inside of the Building: Defining Customer Segments 11

5.2.2. 1st Loop – Testing the Problem and the Customer Hypothesis 13

5.2.3. Inside of the Building: Modifying the Problem Hypothesis 14

5.2.4. 2nd Loop: Testing the Modified Problem Hypothesis 14

5.2.5. Inside of The Building: Analysis of Market Attractiveness 16

5.3. Problem-Solution Discovery 17

5.3.1. Inside of the Building: Identifying Target Solution 17

5.3.2. 3rd Loop: Testing the Solution Hypothesis and Smoke Test 18

5.3.3. Inside of the Building: Modifying the Solution Hypothesis 21

5.3.4. 4th Loop: Testing the Modified Solution Hypothesis and Market Interest 22

6. Conclusion and Roadmap 25

References 27

List of Abbreviations BM Business Model

BMC Business Model Canvas

BML Build Measure Learn

BP Business Plan

LBMC Lean Business Model Canvas

LS Lean Startup

TTS Triathlon Training Schedule

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1. Introduction Triathlon is considered one of the fastest growing sports in the world (Vidal, 2016). The number

of ‘active racing triathletes’1worldwide has been growing by approximately ten percent

annually during the years of 2009-20142 (Roethenbaugh, 2015). This is why many triathletes

from all over the world are seeking help with regards to training in order to thrive on race day.

The combination of triathlon and training presents a huge market opportunity for innovative

ideas and new business models. In the field of entrepreneurship, the Lean Startup (LS) concept

has gained significant popularity providing a scientific and structured process to use continuous

innovation to create radically successful businesses. Focused on business-hypothesis-driven

experimentation, validated learning and iterative product releases, the LS methodology aims to

teach entrepreneurs how to build a sustainable business in the most efficient way. Seizing the

opportunity presented in the triathlon and training market, the vision on which this thesis is

build is to help people train better while creating a sustainable business according to LS

principles. The overarching purpose of this thesis is to find the business model creating the

maximum value to the customer while simultaneously maximizing the odds of success.

This thesis contributes to the state-of-the-art research in the field of the LS methodology,

providing valuable insights on how to practically apply LS methodologies to start a business

from scratch. It not only proves valuable for academics but also for soon-to-be entrepreneurs,

who are searching for inspiration on how to structure their first steps. Moreover, content wise,

this thesis provides a thorough analysis of the needs and aspirations of triathletes.

Focused on the customer discovery process, this paper sets out to answer the subsequent

research question: What is the smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will

drive a customer purchase? In other words, the purpose of this study is to identify the minimum

1 Across Sprint, Olympic, Middle and Long distance. 2 In 2014, 2.3 million active racing triathletes were recorded.

2

viable product (MVP) to be build (Furr and Ahlstrom, 2011). First, a literature review is

conducted, followed by an examination of LS principles, building the theoretical foundation of

this paper. The research methodology is described prior to turning to the analytical part

concerned with the validation of the customer, problem and solution hypotheses. Finally, the

results are presented in the conclusion.

From this point onwards, the business that is created during this research is named

“Endurio”, a name that is dedicated to endurance sports.

2. Literature Review This part of the thesis presents the prevailing frameworks and concepts in the field of ‘how to

start a business’ to set the scene and clarify issues (McKay and Marshall, 2001).

On a strategic level, a well-structured and thought through operating and financial plan has

long been seen as a core component of entrepreneurship, not only from investors and academics

but also from entrepreneurs themselves (Hills, 1988; Gruber, 2007; Lange et al., 2007).

However, the use and significance of business plan (BP) writing in early stage startups has been

questioned in recent years (Blank, 2006; Ries, 2011; Maurya, 2012). Within the academic

world, the debate on the usefulness of BPs in early-stage startups has brought forward two

opposing camps: BP proponents and critics. While BP proponents state that superior

performance of startups is based on the structured, formal and forecasting-oriented planning

approach of BPs (Shane and Delmar, 2004; Brinckmann, Grichnik and Kapsa, 2010); BP critics

argue that business planning runs the risks of resulting in cognitive rigidities in which the

startups are not free to change directions (Vesper, 1992). Since early-stage startups are

operating in a setting of extreme uncertainty, the process of learning, adapting and regulating

resources is considered to be very valuable (Brinckmann et al., 2010). Thus, conservative

planning methods (following an inflexible plan) are claimed to impede the process of learning

and thus progressing (McGrath and MacMillan, 1995). In fact, it is stated that almost no BP

3

survives the first customer contact because of the unpredictability of a startup’s first year and

that 66% of the startups drastically divert from their original plans (Blank, 2006; Maurya,

2012). Thus, Osterwalder and Pigneur (2010) introduced the concept of a Business Model (BM)

in form of a Business Model Canvas (BMC), which has been further developed to a Lean

Business Model Canvas (LBMC) by Maurya (2012). A LBMC basically represents a BP on

one page, consisting of nine building blocks3 that can be systematically validated. First reaching

a problem/solution fit, second a product/market fit and third scaling (ibid.). Many scholars

argued that a startup’s business model shall be identified and validated before wasting valuable

time writing a BP that is based on a chain of assumptions made by the founder (Blank, 2006;

Osterwalder and Pigneur, 2010; Ries, 2011).

On a process level, entrepreneurship has long taken classical management concepts such

as Product Management or Waterfall Development as a blueprint on how to set up a startup and

how to innovate (Blank, 2006; Furr and Ahlstrom, 2011). Thereby disregarding the difference

between more mature firms operating with relatively known variables and startups operating in

extreme uncertainty (McGrath and MacMillan, 1995; Furr and Ahlstrom, 2011). In contrast to

larger companies where the focus can be laid on ‘execution’ (Sull, 2004; Blank, 2006); early

phase startups are considered to focus on the ‘search’ of the right business model. Therefore,

concepts such as Customer Development, which is an iterative process of trying to figure out

who your customer is and agile development, which is a fast-release, iterative software

development, emerged helping entrepreneurs to navigate (Beck, 2004; Blank, 2006). The Lean

Startup (LS), a relatively new concept in entrepreneurship, gained popularity providing a

scientific and structured process to creating and managing startups (Ries, 2011). To assist

entrepreneurs in the process of practically applying the LS concept, several tools and concepts

are available (McClure, 2007; Osterwalder and Pigneur, 2010; Maurya, 2012; Marsh, 2013).

3 (1)customer segments, (2) problem, (3) unique value proposition, (4) solution, (5) channels, (6) revenue streams, (7) cost structure, (8) key metrics and (9) unfair advantage

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3. Lean Startup Methodology “Entrepreneurship is fundamentally a process that can be learned” -Eric Ries

In this part of the paper, the concept of LS is discussed in more detail, especially focusing on

the basic principles guiding a ‘lean’ startup. This part aims to lay the theoretical foundation of

this paper.

Focused on business-hypothesis-driven experimentation, validated learning and iterative

product releases, the Lean Startup methodology aims to teach entrepreneurs how to build a

sustainable business in the most efficient way. The underlying hypothesis being that if products

or services are iteratively built to meet customers’ needs, a startup is not only able to save

money and time but also to reduce market risks (Ries, 2011). Thus, according to Maurya (2012),

a startup is able to minimize its risks of failure and to increase its odds of success. Since various

scholars and entrepreneurs have shaped the Lean Startup movement, the following section is

concerned with the examination of the basic principles guiding lean startups.

3.1. Basic Principles Guiding Lean Startups

A lean startup is in the service of creating and delivering value to customers. In the beginning

of a startup both the customers and the value created are two unknowns. What entrepreneurs

believe to be true is said to be an educated guess. Thus, the lean startup idea is about proving

your business model by validating as many assumptions as possible (Cooper and Vlaskovits,

2013). There are several important principles guiding startups aspiring to ‘be lean’. In the

following, these principles are studied in more detail.

Definition of a Startup: According to Eric Ries (2011, p. 27), a startup is “a human

institution designed to create something new under conditions of extreme uncertainty”. Thus,

everybody who is fundamentally operating in extreme uncertainty about their customers, what

products they want and how to build a sustainable business is an entrepreneur per definition.

That is regardless of the industry, the firm size or the sector of the economy they are operating

5

in. Therefore, entrepreneurs are everywhere not only in young ventures but also in large

corporations (Ries, 2011).

Going Outside of the Building: According to Blank (2006), what entrepreneurs lack most

in the early beginning of their startups is facts. Everything that has been developed ‘inside of

the building’ is believed to be a series of untested hypothesis. The job of an entrepreneur is thus

to turn those hypotheses into facts by going ‘outside of the building’ as quickly as possible

(physically or virtually if web-mobile business model). In fact, Blank (2006) is convinced that

to find the right business model, founders need to spend at least 20% of their time understanding

customer’s problems and needs and how they match with the planned product feature set. Blank

(2006, p. 4) observed that most “startups don’t fail because they lack a product; they fail because

they lack customers”. Therefore, customer discovery (does your product solve a problem for an

identifiable group of users?) and customer validation (do you have the right product, which

solves the customers’ problems?) are crucial parts of a startup’s way to success (Cooper and

Vlaskovits, 2010).

Pivot if Necessary: In the business model search phase, the entrepreneur is able to pivot

the proposed business model assumptions if necessary to follow and test other guesses (Ries,

2011). A pivot is defined as a “structured course correction designed to test a new fundamental

hypothesis” (ibid., p. 149). Simply said, it is a change in course or strategy while staying

grounded in what has been learned. Ultimately, the aim is to either find the right business model

or to realize that there is no or only an insufficient market to create the business the entrepreneur

aspires for.

The Importance of Validated Learning: The main reason why startups exist is to learn

how to develop a sustainable business around its vision. Validated learning is the process of

scientifically validating the startup’s business model hypotheses (Ries, 2011). Due to validated

learning, entrepreneurs are not only able to discover valuable realities about its present and

6

future business prospects but are also able to uncover and eradicate sources of waste, which

overall saves valuable time and money (Furr and Ahlstrom, 2011). Every action a startup

undertakes is thus to be regarded as an experiment aimed to attain validated learning (Ries,

2011). Therefore, validated learning is seen as a tool to measure progress in a startup.

Be Quick to Iterate: Turning ideas into products, assessing customers’ reactions and

learning if to pivot or to persevere is the central endeavour of every startup (Maurya, 2012).

This process is visualized as the Build-Measure-Learn (BML) feedback loop. All activities in

a startup are to be designed to minimize the total time through the loop in order to reduce the

time between the pivots and thus to increase the startup’s odds of success (Ries, 2011).

Prevent Premature Scaling: What is meant with premature scaling is that founders waste

money on growing the business before reaching a product/market fit, which is believed to be

one of the main causes of failure as a startup (Furr and Ahlstrom, 2011). According to Blank

(2006), a startup’s business model needs to be identified and validated before it is scaled.

Minimum Viable Product: According to Furr and Ahlstrom (2011, p.95), a minimum

viable product is “the smallest, most focused set of features that will drive a customer

purchase”. Maurya (2012) argues that a minimum viable product should not only include a

minimum feature set but also be concerned with the price point and thus defines MVP as the

smallest solution that can be build delivering value to the customer while capturing some of

that value. Furr and Ahlstrom’s (2011) definition of MVP is used throughout this paper.

3.2. The Lean Startup Process

“The odds are that anything you’re thinking about customers and markets are nothing more than a guess.” -Steve Blank

When creating a startup according to lean principles, entrepreneurs need to go through a

scientific process of hypothesis testing. This process is to be repeated until all core hypotheses

are validated (Newman, 2012). In this case, a business model fit has successfully been reached.

For the purpose of this research, these steps are applied until the purpose of the paper, to find

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the smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase,

has been attained. Thus, a problem/solution fit is to be reached.

(1) Hypothesis Formulation. First, the core hypotheses are proposed (customer, problem

and solution). However, in the first run a solution hypothesis is not defined because (1) the

problem has not been validated yet and (2) every problem has multiple solutions. Therefore, if

one were to start with the solution other and potentially better opportunities to solve the problem

might be overlooked (Golinsky, 2014).

(2) Experimental Design. Second, an experiment to achieve validated learning is

designed. What should be considered here is, what do I need to learn about my business? There

are three methods of experimentation. Namely, (1) exploration: customer interviews, (2) pitch

or smoke test: collect currency (anything that customers are willing to give up such as email

address, names or phone numbers) and (3) concierge: personally delivering the product to the

customer (using a prototype). The three methods increase in cost of testing (ibid.). Moreover, a

minimum success criterion for the experiment needs to be defined to measure the result of the

testing. It represents the weakest outcome accepted as validation.

(3) Experimentation. At this stage, the founder needs to go out of the building and conduct

the experiment.

(4a+b) Pivot or Persevere? The results of the testing are analysed. If the minimum success

criterion is not met, the experiment invalidates the current hypothesis and one of the core

hypotheses needs to be pivoted. If it is met, it is validated and the next hypothesis can be tested.

4. Research Methodology This part of the paper presents the methodological approach used in this study. The research

design guiding this study is developed with the use of literature. Moreover, the process of data

collection is described.

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In the practice of research there are two prominent research approaches, namely inductive

and deductive. While the deductive approach uses an existing theory as a starting point, the

inductive approach formulates a new theory as a result of data analysis (Bryman and Bell 2003).

This thesis is based on a deductive approach, applying lean startup methodology to find the best

BM helping triathletes to train better. What research strategy to choose highly depends upon

the research question (Yin, 2009). A “what” question such as in this study can be characterized

as a prevalence or exploratory type (ibid.). Since the main aim of this research is to find the

smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase

(MVP), this thesis is of exploratory nature. According to Babbie (1989), an exploratory strategy

is recommended when the issue or problem is relatively unknown. Thus, in accordance with

the purpose of this thesis, an explorative research design was chosen.

This paper is of both quantitative and qualitative nature but concentrates on the latter. A

combination of both methods is useful when a strictly quantitative approach is not possible

(Sekaran, 1992). According to Quinn (2002), a qualitative research approach is especially

valuable when there is no single truth to be found. The qualitative data is from high importance

for this thesis since deep understanding of triathletes’ training habits and problems needs to be

gained. According to Töpfer (2012), the quantitative approach is used to validate and reduce

the possibility of errors. This thesis used the quantitative data to test whether general market

interest exists and on a small scale to verify results from the qualitative research. Primary and

secondary data was used throughout this paper (Churchill, 1983). The primary data was

collected via a survey, interviews, google/Facebook analytics and observations.

To test whether general market interest in triathlon and training business models exist, a

survey has been set up via qualtrics. The survey provides a quantitative analysis. It was posted

in various international Facebook groups and different forums concerned with triathlon,

9

running, swimming or cycling. In total, the survey was kept online for a month recording 180

participants from all over the world. 39 participants did not finish the study until the end.

In accordance with the qualitative nature of this thesis, it was decided to work with a

selected group of four triathletes throughout this research. As the focus of the interviews was

to gain a deeper understanding of the triathletes’ needs and not to receive market validation, a

small number of interviewees was regarded as more valuable (Maurya, 2012). Moreover, since

the time frame of the interview process could not be predicted in the beginning of the research

(as number of pivots was still unknown), a rather small group of interviewees assured that

special attention could be paid to each participant, preventing people to quit the study early. To

create a representative group of triathletes fitting into the target customer segment, the

interviewees were selected according following criteria: (1) previous endurance sports

experience (all three sports: swimming, cycling, running need to be represented), (2) triathlon

experience (from rather inexperienced to very experienced), (3) next distance to train for

(Olympic or long distance), (4) gender (at least one woman), (5) nationality (at least two

different nationalities) and (6) age (20-60 years). The potential interviewees were identified via

the personal and professional network and contacted by telephone and email. The interviews

were semi-structured, providing room for deviation if necessary. At some stages, specific

interview techniques have been used to get to the root of the customers’ thoughts. They are

elaborated more specifically when used. In total, 16 interviews were conducted, four at each

stage of the process. Due to the geographical distance of the researcher and the interviewees,

the interviews were conducted via Skype video call. Throughout the interviews, the interviewer

stayed unbiased and pursued her line of investigation (Yin, 2009). For detailed interview results

please see Appendix C: Interviews.

Google and Facebook analytics was used to assess the market response to the landing and

Facebook page and to the website, which have been created throughout the research.

10

Secondary data was mainly retrieved from books and journals found in the library and

online databases, videos and literature. Due to the relatively new field of Lean Startup, a lot of

connected information was solely found online. The analysis of the data represented a constant

process throughout the timeframe of the research where data collection and analysis were

simultaneously performed

5. Analysis

5.1. Testing Market Interested in new Triathlon and Training BMs

In a first step, an experiment has been designed to validate if people were generally interested

in the topic of triathlon and training and especially if they were interested in new business

models in this area. Therefore, an extensive survey about the athletes’ demographics, triathlon

training habits, problems and needs has been set up. Initially, it was posted in 26 different

international Facebook groups (seven posts were only shown as visitors’ posts) and nine

different forums concerned with triathlon, running, swimming or cycling. The underlying

hypothesis being that if athletes were dedicated to filling out this 10 minutes long survey, they

show significant interest in new business models in the triathlon and training market. The text

posted above the survey, thus stated that the athletes’ experiences and insights were needed to

help verifying new BMs in the triathlon and training market (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 1: Facebook

Post). The defined minimum success criterion was that within two days 100 people were to fill

out the survey.

After two days 119 people from all over the world had filled out the survey confirming the

hypothesis that (tri)athletes are generally interested in new business models in the triathlon and

training market. Moreover, valuable quantitative data was collected, facilitating the customer

segmentation process that followed next. For data collection purposes the survey was kept

online for a month. In total, there were 180 respondents mainly from the UK, the US, Australia

and Germany.

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5.2. Customer-Problem Discovery

“Successful companies build great products that customers need.” -Steve Blank

According to Maurya (2012), in early-stage startups the riskiest part of the business model is

the customer segment and the problem. That is because every part of the business model builds

upon the customers and their problems. If the customer-problem fit has been identified

incorrectly or has not been validated, startups run the risk of building products or services no

one desires. Hence, a thorough discovery, identification and validation of the customers and

their problems creates a strong foundation for the rest of the business model and is a first step

to success. Ultimately, reaching a customer-problem fit means circumventing building products

that nobody wants and thus, loosing money.

5.2.1. Inside of the Building: Defining Customer Segments

To facilitate the research, the broad customer category of ‘people interested in triathlon and

training’ has been split into smaller verticals (Maurya, 2012). Especially as a startup, it is

important not to try to be ‘all things to all people’ but at first focus time and energy on a selected

group of people (Cooper and Vlaskovits, 2013). In a setting of uncertainty, classical marketing

segmentation criteria such as demographics cannot be applied. That is because while they help

to classify customers that already exist, they fail to tell entrepreneurs anything about the

customers’ needs or desires. Thus, Cooper and Vlaskovits’ (2013) definition of customer

segment has been applied; A customer segment is made of people who share the same pain or

passion and who speak the same language. Meaning that people in the same segment are able

to refer to each other for solutions to their problems or address their passions. Each of the

customer segments, thus potentially represents a different business model, a different product

(Maurya, 2012). Building on the data collected during the survey, the defined customer

segments read as follows: professional triathletes, ambitious triathletes, not-just-yet triathletes,

triathlon trainers and triathlon clubs. In a next step, it has been prioritized, which customer

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segment to pick and work with first based on internally developed criteria such as general

knowledge about the customer segment, ease of reach and founders’ enthusiasm to serve this

segment. To better track the process, a customer segment matrix has been used listing the

different customer segments and its criteria, see Appendix B, Table 1: CSM for more detail.

‘Ambitious triathletes’ has been selected as the most convincing customer segment because

they are easy to reach through Facebook groups, open to talk about their triathlon experiences

and represent a large number of people. In the following, a customer archetype has been

sketched describing the ‘ambitious triathlete’ in more detail. Defining a customer archetype is

important to get a first understanding of who to talk to first when going outside of the building

(Maurya, 2012).

Customer Archetype

‘Harvey’ is an active racing triathlete, who participates in 2+ races per year and trains

approximately 10 hours per week (Roethenbaugh, 2015). He has been practicing the sports of

triathlon for 3 years (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 5: Years of Practicing Triathlon). He has participated in

sprint distances and his next challenge is a longer distance triathlon. He is a member of a

triathlon club but he mostly trains individually (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 2: Training Habits). What he

misses the most in his training is new training content. He owns his own triathlon equipment

and is rather a big spender, his total triathlon expenditure lays at 3500 EUR per year

(Roethenbaugh, 2015). He does triathlon to ‘relax’ and to pursue a new challenge. He probably

practiced one of the three sports successfully before turning to triathlon. He holds a university

degree and is a full-time employee living in a metropolitan area (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 3: Highest

Level of Education; Fig. 4: Employment Status). He does not have a lot of free time and is

tightly scheduled, which is why he needs to make extra time for his training. Basically, he needs

to train whenever he has a minute to spare. He wishes for positive competition because that gets

him excited. Moreover, he wants to track his performance over time to see how he has

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improved. Harvey continuously works to improve his performance to step up his game. Costs

do not play such a big role. Personalized trainings would be the best for him because it is the

most efficient way to get better. It has been observed that he has problems finding a good coach

that will take him to the next level with regards to performance.

The outlined persona, its behaviours, problems and needs is based on the data retrieved

from the survey, background research, observations and on the founder’s educated guess. In a

next step it is thus important to learn if these assumptions can be validated or need to be

modified by going outside of the building.

5.2.2. 1st Loop: Testing the Problem and the Customer Hypothesis

The first customer and problem hypothesis that was designed to be tested reads as follows: It is

believed that people like Harvey - ambitious triathlete - have problems finding a personal coach.

The method chosen for this test was exploration, thus personal interviews. The interview

evolved around the customers’ role as a triathlete, training habits and main problems. Moreover,

the ‘5 Whys method’ has been used to gain an even deeper understanding of the problems

people like Harvey indicated to have in the interviews. The basic idea of the ‘5 Whys approach’

is to start with a customer problem, which is usually a surface pain or symptom and then to ask

the interviewee why this is a problem five times to get to the root of the customers’ problem

(Ries, 2011). The minimum success criterion was defined as three out of four interviewees

indicating that they have this problem when asking them about their three main problems as an

‘ambitious triathlete’.

The results of the interviews show that none of the interviewees indicated that they had

problems finding a coach. Much the contrary, finding a coach was perceived as being rather

“easy”. Thereby, confirming the results of the survey (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 6: Triathlon Coach).

Mostly, coaches were found via the local triathlon club or recommendations of other triathletes

and friends. What has been mentioned quite often is that the coach is perceived as a means to

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receive a triathlon training schedule (TTS) that is adapted to their life and training progress

rather than giving real-time feedback. Only in two cases the interviewees said that they have

engaged a coach for the improvement of their swimming technique. All of the interviewees

indicated that they rather train individually than with a coach or in a triathlon club because of

their tight work and family schedule. For them it is important that the triathlon training is

adjustable to their ‘busy lifestyle’ and their training progress. The number one customer

problems and needs could be identified as: “tailored training schedule to personal needs”

(Rondini, 2016), “training schedule that is suited to my current fitness level and oriented to my

personal goals” (Proske, 2016), “prevent repetitive training session and boredom” (Paul, 2016)

and “flexibility” (Kaiser, 2016).

In conclusion, the minimum success criterion has not been met, which is why either the

customer or the problem hypothesis needs to be pivoted. Since the experiment confirmed some

of the data from the survey, validated characteristics about the customer archetype and provided

valuable insights about the customer segment’s problem, it was decided to change the problem

hypothesis while sticking to the customer segment.

5.2.3. Inside of The Building: Modifying the Problem Hypothesis

Before conducting a second experiment with a new problem hypothesis, the insights of the

previous experiments have been grouped and analysed. As a result, receiving a triathlon training

schedule that is dynamically adapted to the life and training progress of the athlete has been

identified as the main need of ‘ambitious triathletes’.

5.2.4. 2nd Loop: Testing the Modified Problem Hypothesis

Therefore, the second customer and problem hypothesis that was tested reads as follows: It is

believed that people like Harvey - fulltime manager and ambitious triathlete - have the need for

a TTS that dynamically adapts to their life and training progress. The method chosen for this

test was personal interviews. This time, however, the interview was completely focused on the

15

problem hypothesis. It thus evolved around the importance of the described problem to the

customer, how the problem has been solved so far and the rating of the importance of the

problem in a five step rating system4. Christensens’ (2003) ‘Jobs to be done’ technique has been

used to get a better understating of the underlying customer problems. The basic idea of this

concept is that customers hire your product to get a job done. This is often something they have

already been trying to do but mostly insufficiently or even unsuccessfully. Once this job has

been correctly identified, the entrepreneur is in a much better position to pinpoint the underlying

problem and eventually define a solution for that (ibid.). The minimum success criterion has

been defined as three out of four interviewees indicating that this is a need where a solution is

at least nice to have.

In fact, all of the interviewees agreed that this is a relevant need “since Triathlon requires

long training hours that interfere with work and private life” (Rondini, 2016). While three

interviewees indicated that it would be nice to have a solution for this problem, one said that a

solution is a must-have. All argued that even though they were very passionate about the sports

of triathlon, the training plays a subordinate role in their lives. It does not mean that the training

is not from high importance but that there are other factors such as work, family and friends,

which are prioritized in most of the cases. Nonetheless, all of the interviewees seemed to be

very ambitious and serious about their goals and are continuously trying to improve

performance. One specifically stated that “you can not achieve your best if sticking to a rigid

and non-personalized schedule” (Kaiser, 2016). Until now, none was able to get access to a

TTS that adapts to the progress in training as well as to organizational changes. Three out of

four interviewees pointed out that they have tried to build their own TTS with the help of videos,

books, magazines or friends. However, the process was perceived as quite bothersome because

it took valuable time and know-how to do so. One indicated that a friend had written one. Two

4 (1) I don’t have this problem, (2) I don’t want a solution for this problem, (3) I don’t care about a solution for this problem, (4) It will be nice to have a solution for this problem, (5) I must have a solution for this problem.

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interviewees indicated that in times of more free time they were able to join fixed training

sessions in a triathlon club. In both cases the coach of the club was willing to write a TTS on

request. However, what has been indicated is that the TTSs are not as personalized for non-

professional triathletes as for professional triathletes. Next to a lack of personalization, both of

the interviewees did not see this as the optimal solution. This is very important for triathletes

because throughout the distinctive stages of the preparation phase, the focus of the training

content also changes and constant adaption is needed (Kaiser, 2016).

Since all of the interviewees agreed that the proposed need is worth solving, the problem

hypothesis was validated. Thus, a customer-problem fit has been reached and reads as follows:

‘Ambitious triathletes’ have the need for a triathlon training schedule that dynamically adapts

to their life and training progress.

5.2.5. Inside of The Building: Analysis of Market Attractiveness

Before formulating a solution hypothesis and moving on with the LS process, it is important to

evaluate the attractiveness of the chosen market. According to Furr and Ahlstrom (2011), two

main factors are to be studied: market size and growth as well as competition.

For the purpose of identifying the market size of ambitious triathletes having the need for

a triathlon training schedule that dynamically adapts to their life and training progress, the total

number of ambitious triathletes worldwide has been researched. The number of active racing

triathletes amounted to 2.8 million in 2015 (Roethenbaugh, 2015). Adding an estimate of 300k

athletes, who officially have not yet participated in a triathlon (based on 10% CAGR from 2009

to 2014), the number of ambitious triathletes thus reaches an estimate of 3.1 million. Hereby, it

has to be noted that this number includes professional triathletes that are not part of the target

segment. Yet, the number of professional triathletes is estimated to be inferior to 1000 and was

hence regarded as insignificant for the market size estimation. Since the vast majority of

ambitious triathletes is facing a tight personal and professional schedule (ibid), it was estimated

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that 90% of ambitious triathletes have the need for a training schedule that dynamically adapts

to their life next to their training progress. This leaves a total market size of 2.79 million, which

is believed to be sufficient. The number of triathletes worldwide has been constantly growing

at a CAGR of 10% over the past years, indicating a general growth of the market. Moreover,

the triathlon industry confidence5 concerning customer demand has increased by 6.8 index

points from 2015 to 2016 (TBI, 2016).

A competitor analysis has shown that Endurio mainly competes with triathlon clubs,

personal coaches, self-made solutions and apps specialized on one of the three endurance sports.

The following apps are regarded as close competitors: (1) First Time Triathlon: Offers TTSs

but for beginners only, (2) My Tri Swim Coach: Aimed to improve swim technique by offering

a compilation of YouTube videos, (3) Training Peaks: tracks performance, (4) Triathlon App:

Information on training methods, (5) 2Peak: tailored TTS but not easy to use.

Concluding, market size and growth show convincing figures and there are no direct

competitors. The market has hence been identified as very attractive.

5.3. Problem-Solution Discovery

Since the customers and the target problem is well understood and validated and the market has

been identified as attractive, a solution can be defined. According to Maurya (2012), it is

important to emphasize that the solution must not be confused with the product. The business

model as a whole is the startup’s product, the solution only a component of it.

5.3.1. Inside of the Building: Identifying Target Solution

For each problem there are always multiple solutions. The number of potential solutions for

this particular problem is reduced by laying the focus on a specific customer segment.

Nonetheless, the number of potential solutions is still high. This paper makes the main

5 Survey of 125 industry executives and members of triathlon business international providing an overview of the triathlon industry perspectives of the business and customer situation in 2016.

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distinction between ‘technological’ and ‘in person’ solutions. It was decided to go with a

technological solution because of two factors. First, the rising trend of ‘quantified self for all’

in sports. According to Servant (2016), quantified self for all means an increased use of

technologies in sports to improve performance by recording, monitoring and sharing personal

data. It is successful because it is based on the core management belief that what cannot be

measured can not be managed, helping non-professional athletes train almost as efficiently as

professionals (ibid.). Moreover, it is known that Endurio’s target customer segment is open to

the use of technology in its training and in general represents an age group that works with

electronic devices on a daily basis (cf. Appx. A: Fig. 7: New Technology). Moreover, in the

interviews it was indicated that personal contact in form of a coach was not necessarily needed

to improve performance overall. However, a personalized solution seemed to be important.

Therefore, the proposed solution is aimed at digitalizing and personalizing triathlon training.

Thus, Endurio’s solution hypothesis reads as follows: Endurio is a mobile application

aimed at helping you to create a faster version of yourself. It provides you with personalized

triathlon training schedules, helps you track performance and lets you share your

accomplishments. Based on observations and assumptions about the target customer, tracking

of performance and sharing of accomplishments have been added as solution features. In the

eyes of the founder a combination of those three features presented a well-rounded product.

5.3.2. 3rd Loop: Testing the Solution Proposal and Smoke Test

Two experiments have been designed to test whether people like Harvey - fulltime manager

and ambitious triathlete - have the need for a triathlon training schedule that is dynamically

adapted to their life, are interested in the above proposed solution. Next to conducting personal

interviews, a smoke test in form of a landing page (http://endurio.launchrock.com) has been

created to present Endurio’s’ proposed solution and to test market interest. The landing page

was designed with the help of launchrocket.com showing a picture of a triathlete, Endurio’s

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solution and a call to action in form of a ‘Get Started Today’ slogan and an email sign up field

below (cf. Appx. D: Fig. 8: Design). The page was shown to interviewees before the start of

the interview. The interview questions evolved around the understanding and the importance

of the described solution and the rating of the importance of the solution on a six-stage rating

system6. The minimum success criterion for the interview has been defined as three out of four

interviewees indicating that this is a solution that is considered to be at least nice to have.

Moreover, the interviewees were asked to tell other triathletes about the landing page to see if

interest in the proposed solution could be gained via word-of-mouth. In addition, a public

Facebook post on my private account has been set up to test interest in the product (cf. Appx.

D: Fig. 9: Facebook Post). The minimum success criterion for the landing page has been defined

as 100 visitors and a 4% conversion rate to potential customers within three days. McClure’s

(2007) metrics for product marketing and product management has been used as a guidance for

setting a realistic conversion rate goal.

The interviews have shown that the solution proposed via the landing page is not the perfect

match for ambitious triathletes. While two of them indicated that they wanted to learn more

about the solution, the other two stated that they did not care about it. The interviewees, who

did not care about the proposed solution have been noticing that the picture used for the landing

page shows a triathlete whose racing apparel sits too loose to be a ‘real’ triathlete. They pointed

out that this must have been a photo shooting rather than a picture showing a racing triathlete.

For them, this indicated that the creator of the page did not have the competence to tell both

things apart what makes them believe that the product might be fit for amateurs but not for

professional triathletes. Moreover, three interviewees stated that they already use other

solutions to track their performance, which is why they would not need an ‘additional app’

doing that. All interviewees also indicated that they already shared their accomplishments with

6 (1) I don’t want this solution, (2) I don’t need this solution, (3) I don’t care about this solution, (4) It will be nice to have this solution, (5) I must have this solution, (6) I want to know more about this solution.

20

friends, family or other triathletes, which is why they did not regard it as an important feature.

Two interviewees stated that instead of sharing of accomplishments, it would be nice to have

something like an ‘inspiration’ mechanism, which enables triathletes to see other triathletes’

TTSs and their times within their region. However, all liked the idea of receiving personalized

TTSs. That way, they were able to train whenever they liked and without being restricted by

fixed training sessions. However, the interviewees indicated that they needed more information

before being fully convinced of the solution, especially concerning the following details: (1) in

what frequency are the TTSs updated? (weekly, monthly, quarterly), (2) Who is the originator

of the TTSs? Is she or he trustworthy? (3) Is the app applicable for any triathlon distance?, (4)

How is the initial starting fitness of the triathlete measured? (5) How does the app assure that

the TTSs are adapted to progress in performance? (6) How is assured that the exercises of the

TTSs are well understood and correctly executed especially with regards to preventing injuries?

Concluding, the minimum success criterion for the interviews was not met. However, all

interviewees seemed to be interested in the idea of an app providing personalized triathlon

training schedules.

The analytics of the landing page showed that within three days 63 people visited the page

staying zero to ten seconds on average (cf. Appx. D: Fig. 10: Visitors; Fig. 11: World Map; Fig.

12: Average Visiting Time). From those who visited the page, six7 converted to potential

customers by leaving their email address. Out of the six visitors who signed up, two have been

identified as interview partners. From the interviews it is known that none of the interviewees

sees this solution as nice to have, thus they were not counted as potential customers. The other

four were unknown (cf. Appx. D: Fig. 14: Potential Customers). When they have been

contacted via email requesting an interview to get a better understanding why they were

interested in the product, none of them answered. The results of the landing page experiment

7 Originally eleven converted to potential customers. However, five of the eleven were identified as friends or were test runs, which is why they were not counted as potential customers.

21

show that the minimum success criterion has not been met with regards to the number of people

visiting the side. However, the minimum success criterion has been met with regards to the 4%

conversion rate. Since the potential customers did not respond to the email request following

their sign up, their interest in the product can not be fully confirmed.

Looking at both the results from the interviews and the smoke test, it was decided to slightly

pivot the solution to reach a better problem-solution fit.

5.3.3. Inside of the Building: Modifying the Solution Hypothesis

The solution was adjusted based on the information received from the previous interviews

especially with regards to the open question concerning the personalized TTSs. Moreover,

Endurio’s unique value proposition (UVP) has been drafted to state why the company’s product

is different to other products and why it is worth buying (Blank, 2006). This time, the solution

was described in more detail to prevent misunderstandings. The proposed solution reads as

follows:

Endurio – Introduction

Focused on the individual goal of the athlete, Endurio offers weekly training schedules

developed by renowned triathlon coaches that are adapted to your day-to-day and your

performance. We believe that even the most carefully assembled training schedule can fail you

if it is not flexible enough. Endurio will embrace changes in your daily life by adapting your

training schedule on a weekly basis. Whether you decide to beat your personal best, try out a

new distance or simply have fun, Endurio will help you to thrive on race day regardless of your

initial performance level.

Endurio Fundamentals - How does it work exactly?

To specifically adapt the training schedule to you, basic data is collected as you first register at

Endurio. Such as (1) your goal – what distance do you want to participate in? What date have

you set as your race day? If it’s too ambitious as it’s not matching with your fitness level,

Endurio will ask you to postpone your set date to avoid discouragement or injuries. (2) Your

22

needs – how many hours are you able to train per week? Can you only train on specific days?

Additionally, a performance diagnostic test is used to help us assess your current fitness level.

The test can be undertaken with or without technical hardware, depending on how well you are

equipped. Once we have collected the basic data and your general fitness level is determined,

you are free to start your training. Small video clips will demonstrate you how to correctly

execute certain exercises, especially focusing on swimming and running techniques. This will

not only help you to improve technically but also to avoid injuries. For you to achieve the

optimal training result, we aim to continuously adapt your personal training schedule to your

performance. To assess your progress and your mental strength, the best way possible, Endurio

not only uses data collected during your performance diagnostic test or your trainings but also

asks you to rate your trainings session according to the perceived level of stress. This so-called

“Intensity Feedback” uses RPE-Scales (Ratings of Perceived Exertion) to embrace – besides

clearly determinable factors – an often disregarded element: the triathlete and his or her

perception of the training. RPE-Scales constitute an essential part of performance diagnostics

in serious sports. With the help of the Intensity Feedback, the triathlete’s perception flows

directly into the generation of training sessions. Endurio will help you to create a faster and

stronger version of yourself so you can thrive on race day.

5.3.4. 4th Loop: Testing the Modified Solution Hypothesis and Market Interest

To learn if this solution proposal can be validated three experiments were designed. Interviews

in form of pitch have been conducted. Additionally, a Facebook Page and a website have been

set up to test market interest in the modified solution (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 15: Facebook Page).

In a first stage of the interview, the modified solution was pitched to the interviewees.

Moreover, the interviewees were asked to have a look at the created Facebook page as well as

at the website before the start of the interview. Both were used to help the interviewees visualize

the proposed solution in a more vivid way. In a second stage, questions evolving around the

23

proposed solution were asked (resembling those of the previous loop). The minimum success

criterion for the interview has been defined as three out of four interviewees indicating that this

is a solution that is considered to be at least nice to have.

In fact, the minimum success criterion has been met. Two of the interviewees said that this

is a must have solution, one indicated that it is nice to have and one indicated to want to know

more about it. All of the interviewees stated that they liked the way the solution developed

saying that it looked very professional, easy-to-use and like a real alternative to conventional

training schedules. Naturally, some of the interviewees were still sceptical about the actual

product and if it is able to deliver what it promises. Especially with regards to the training

content, more detailed information was asked for (e.g. How do you come up with the training

content? Who is the renowned triathlon coach that is talked about in the solution?). If the

solution was able to create great training content and assure 100% flexibility, the app had the

potential to develop into a must-have training device of every ambitious triathlete. However,

all of the triathletes agreed that the final judgment is made on race day, not earlier. Concerning

the willingness to pay for the solution all of them indicated that they were generally willing to

pay for it. While two stated that they would be willing to pay a small amount for the solution

as early as in the testing phase, two said that they were not be willing to pay something before

the solution proved to be working better than their current TTS. All of the interviewees agreed

to be part of Endurio’s test phase. Meaning that they are willing to use a prototype in their

training. When asked if they were willing to promote the solution (in form of the website and/or

Facebook page) to other triathletes, all agreed. One even offered to help finding other motivated

first users.

The Facebook site8 contains basic information about Endurio, such as a short and a long

description of the product, its mission, its email address, its website and when it is supposed to

8 https://www.facebook.com/endurio.triathlon/

24

launch. Additionally, a ‘Learn More’ button is displayed, which redirects to Endurio’s website9.

The first thing that is shown on the website is a call to action in form of the following slogan:

‘Get Ready for Your Triathlon’ (cf. Appx. E: Fig.16: Call to Action). Below there is red button

that states ‘Today’ that directs the visitor to a ‘Coming Soon’ pop up for signing up via email

(cf. Appx. E: Fig. 17: Sign Up). In the background a video in black and white is showing

professional triathletes (men and women) in the middle of a race. Special focus has been laid

on solely using videos or pictures that show ‘real’ triathletes to better appeal to target customer

segment. When the visitor scrolls down, Endurio’s UVP is displayed in large letters right below

the startup’s logo (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 18: UVP). A detailed list of the benefits of Endurio is

depicted below the UVP (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 19: Benefits). Followed by a contact site that also

refers to Endurio’s Facebook page (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 20: Contact Details). The minimum

success criterion for the the website has been set to 100 visitors and a 4% conversion rate within

three weeks beginning from the day of the interviews. The minimum success criterion for the

Facebook page has been set to 100 likes within three weeks. The timeframe has been chosen to

be much longer for this test since neither the website nor the Facebook page has been marketed

in any way. It was to be seen if the solution could be spread via word-of-mouth only. Thus, it

was accounted for more time.

The analytics of the website showed that within three weeks, 136 people visited the page

staying four seconds on average (cf. Appx. E: Fig. 21: Analytics Website). However, only

18,4% of the visitors represented ‘new’ visitors. From those who visited the page, sixteen

converted to potential customers by leaving their email address of which four were identified

as the interview partner and six as friends or family. Leaving six unknown potential customers.

The results of the website experiment show that the minimum success criterion has been met

with regards to the number of people visiting the side and with the conversion rate. The

9 http://www.endurio.de/

25

Facebook analytics showed that 69 people liked the page within three weeks. However, 90%

of the people liking the page have been identified as friends, their conviction of the solution has

thus to be seen critically. The minimum success criterion for the Facebook experimentation has

not been met. Due to the small scope of the two experiments, the results of both tests should be

verified by running another experiment where the solution is marketed through various

channels. This way, statistically significant results can be achieved and market interest can be

validated.

Concluding, all of the interviewees liked the proposed solution saying that it looked very

professional, easy-to-use and like a real alternative to conventional training schedules.

Moreover, the tests of market interest confirmed the results of the interviews. Even though a

statistically more representative test would have to be conducted to verify the results, the

proposed solution has been perceived as a good fit for the target customer segment. A

customer/problem/solution fit has been found. Hence, the research question can be answered:

The smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer purchase

is a mobile app that focused on the individual goal of the athlete offers weekly training

schedules developed by renowned triathlon coaches that are adapted to the customers’ day-to-

day and their performance.

6. Conclusion and Roadmap “True visionaries are not the ones that stick to a vision no matter what, true visionaries are

those that are able to hear the market and then go towards where the market is leading them” -Brant Cooper

The vision on which this thesis has been built was to help people train better while creating a

sustainable business according to LS principles. This paper set out to answer the research

question aimed at identifying the smallest solution with the most focused set of features that

will drive a customer purchase. After a general market interest in BMs in the area of triathlon

and training could be confirmed, four loops of hypothesis testing needed to be performed. While

26

the first two loops were concerned with finding a problem ‘ambitious triathletes’ are facing, the

second two loops concentrated on finding a must-have solution to the identified problem. The

problem that has been identified is the following: ‘ambitious triathletes’ need a TTS that

dynamically adapts to their day-to-day and their training progress. After reaching the

customer/problem fit, the following problem/solution fit to arrive at a MVP has been identified,

which reads as follows:

The smallest solution with the most focused set of features that will drive a customer

purchase is a mobile app that focused on the individual goal of the athlete offers weekly training

schedules developed by renowned triathlon coaches that are adapted to the customers’ day-to-

day and their performance. Thanks to the process of validated learning, valuable time and

money could be saved while finding a solution that customers want.

Due to the page limitation of this research and based on the choices made in terms of

concepts, this thesis exhibits the following limitations. This paper does not examine whether

startups following LS concept are more successful than startups following other concepts. This

is an interesting topic to be analysed further since research on ‘lean’ startups is generally limited

(Kähig, 2011). Moreover, an analysis of the practical applicability of LS methods to real life

cases could not be given either. The data collected during this research is mainly of qualitative

nature, which is why the statistical relevance of this thesis is limited. In a next step, a prototype

in form of the MVP should be built and tested in the market. Only when a product/market fit is

reached, the startup should be scaled.

27

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