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Page 1: 2016-2015 · 39 2016-2015 & The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road Safety Annual Report. Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology

2016-2015

2016

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03-9685802

03-9685801

[email protected]

2016

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5 ......................................................................................................................................

13 ..........................................................................................................................................

27 ......................................................................................................................................

3 41 .............................................................................................................................................

53 ......................................................................................................................

65 ..............................................................................................................................

OECD 79 ..........................................................................................................................................

100 93 ......................................................

105 ............................................................

117 .....................................

127 .........................................................................................................................................

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2016-20159

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2016-201513

1

2

. ETSC, 1999

Nilsson & Sjogren,: 1981; Rothengatter, 1982

302

Carr, Schnelle & Kirkhne, 1980 ; Shinar & Stiebel, 1986

2014

1.2015

2

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2016-2015 14

Hokig, 1977 ; Azrin, 1960)

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2016-201515

Bunkley, 2008

750 2005337 2008

1

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2016-2015 16

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2016-201517

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2016-2015 18

3.2

70%

8.2

3

3

2013

Page 19: 2016-2015 · 39 2016-2015 & The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road Safety Annual Report. Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology

2016-201519

2012

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2016-2015 20

20112013

2011

240 210290

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2016-201521

9024

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2016-2015 22

3

,WAZE

2014

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2016-201523

4

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2016-2015 24

4

Y X

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2016-201525

2014

2014.60-1 2014.04

2011

2013

2011

2008

2005

Azrin. H. N. 1960. “Effects of punishment intensity during variable-interval

reinforcement”, Journal of Exp Anal Behavior 3(2), 123-142.

Carr, A. F. Schnelle J. F. & Kirkhne R. E. 1980. Police crackdowns and

slowdowns: a naturalistic evolution of changes in police traffic.

Behavioral Assessment 2, 33-41.

European Transport Safety Council (ETSC), 1999.

Jurdan J. & Bunkley, N. 3 March 2008. Pioneer in Quality Control Dies. New

York: New York Times, p. 103.

Rothengatter T. 1982. “The effect of police surveillance and law

enforcement on driver behavior”. Current Psychological reviews 2, 349-

358.

Honig W. K. 1977. Handbook of operant behavior. New Jersey: prentice-

Hall.

Nilsson, E., Sjogren. O. 1981. Relationships between enforcement, traffic

speeds and traffic accidents. Paper presented at the International

Symposium on the Effects of Speed Limits on Traffic Accidents and Fuel

Consumption, Ireland.

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2016-201527

1

2013-2012

Vilfredo 2 Hot Spots)20% Fredrico Damaso Pareto), 80%

20%

1

2

David Weisburd, Elizabeth Groff and Sue Ming Yang, (2012), The Criminology of Place: Street Segments and Our Understanding of the crime Problem, Oxford University press.

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2016-2015 28

3

Clarke and Weisburd, 1994

3

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2016-201529

Hakkert, Yelinik and Efrat, 1990

4

24

25 1.5

1998)

2013

5 3

20%

12 85

3 854

2013

2011 4Hot Spots 5

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2016-2015 30

Hakkert, Pollak and Peled, 2013GIS

6

Miaou, 1994) 6

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2016-201531

2008

7 EB) Empirical Bayes

EB

2016

90%

8

2016

Hauer, 1996 78

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2016-2015 32

20109

2010-2009 1.21

1

2

9

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2016-201533

2

20112

10

1

2

11

10

11

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2016-2015 34

2011

12

Hot Spots

13

2012

30-10

14 300

3-2

12

13

14

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2016-201535

43% 61%3

3

1 15

12 2 603 3

39 200

25%4 9%

15

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2016-2015 36

4

13 17 201340 180 317

2013 280 2016

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2016-201537

43% 61% 25% 3

4 9%

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2016-2015 38

2013

2008

2013

http trasportation. :2016org.il sites default files pirsum ilanatalemot1-3-16.pdf

1998

2014 2013

http www.rsa.gov.il siteCollectioDocuments D7%9E%D7%

Elvik R. and Vaa T., (2014), The Handbook of Road Safety Measures, New

York: Amsterdam, Elsevier Science.

Hakkert S., Yelinek A. and Efrat E., (1990), “Police Surveillance Methods

and Police Resource Allocation Models” in Proc. Of OEDC Conf. on

Enforcement and Rewarding Strategies and Effects, Danish Road

Directorate, Copenhagen.

Hauer E., (1996), “Identification of Sites with Promise” in Transportation

Research Record, 1542, pp. 54-60.

Kapiow L. and Khavell S., (2001), Any Non-welfares Method of Policy

Assessment Violates the Pareto Principle, Harvard Law School and

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Miaou P. S., (1994), “The Relationship between Truck Accidents and

Geometric design of road section: Poisson Versus negative binomial

regressions”, in Accident Analysis and Prevention, 26(4), pp. 471-482.

Pollak K., Peled A. and Hakkert S., (2013), “Geo-Based Statistical Models

for Vulnerability Prediction of Highway Network Segment”, in ISPRS:

International Journal of Geo-Information, 3(2), pp. 619-637.

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2016-201539

The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road

Safety Annual Report.

Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology of Place:

Street Segments and Our Understanding of the crime Problem, Oxford

University press.

Weisburd D. and Clarke R., (1994), “Diffusion of Crime Control Benefits:

Observations on the Reverse of Displacement” in Crime Prevention

Studies, 2, pp. 184-165.

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2016-201541

1

3 2012

2014

) 32012

3 1

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2016-2015 42

2014

60

2005300 1,200

) 3 11.3.2007 13702012

2014 2014-20109%

3150 2016

100

ELVIK, 2013

2014

Cameron et al, 2003 ;2014

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2016-201543

2016

) 360 2014

135

1

1 .

2 .

3 .

4 .

5 .

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2016-2015 44

3 1

1

23

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2016-201545

1 . ,2014 100.2015 240

2 .22013 2012 2015-2012 3

20132014

2014

10

2

3 . 2015 324%

8% 2015

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2016-2015 46

2015 3

4 .45% 3

2015 2.1%

4

5 .519% 2012 3

Page 47: 2016-2015 · 39 2016-2015 & The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road Safety Annual Report. Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology

2016-201547

.2015 2.6%

5

6 .6 8585

85 6 15%19 2012 2015-2012

14 12 85 74%

3 19 85 6

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2016-2015 48

7 .7

42 9 2014 2012.2014 30 2012

9 7

) 3 2012

240 2015 2014

13

23

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2016-201549

2014

.25.2.16

2005

Cameron M., Newstead S., Diamantopoulou K., Oxley P. 2003. The

interaction between speed camera enforcement and speed-related

mass media publicity in Victoria. Report No. 201. Monash University –

Accident research center.

Elvik. R., 2013. A re-parameterisation of the Power Model of the relationship

between the speed of traffic and the number of accidents and accident

victims. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 50(1), 854-860.

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2016-2015 50

Data:

P - number of poles (p= 1,..,P)

Q - number of groups of poles (i.e. cities, hot spots) (q = A,B,C,D…,Q)

STq - poles located in group q (STq P)

J - number of different types of punishments (j = 1,…J)

I - number of traffic courts (i=1,..,I)

E - number of tickets (for all types) that the encoder unit can handle

K - types of speed enforcement levels (function of speed limit) (k=1,..,K)

– expected number of tickets per type j produced at pole p at

speed enforcement level k during planning period

– expected % tickets per type j produced at pole p at speed enforcement

level k that go to court (the owner of the vehicle can ask for a court

summons instead of a fine)

– maximum number of court summons that Traffic Court i can handle

per planning period, i = 1,.., I

– expected utility of % of enforcement time at pole p at enforcement level k

during planning period (i.e. maximum reduction in road accidents

according to Power Model)

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2016-201551

Decision variables

Xpk - % of time a camera at pole p is operated at speed enforcement level

k during planning period

Maximum Utility The

Power Model

1) Encoder unit capacity

2) Court unit capacity

3) Spatial constraints

4) Equality constraints

k=1,..,K5) The maximum is100%

≤1

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2016-201553

2 1

2012 ) 3

2014

3

2015 2012 ) 3100 150

2014

3 1

BI 2

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2016-2015 54

BI=Business intelligence

Elbashir et al., 2008Big Data

. Nenortaitė and Butleris, 2009

Negash, 2004

Cody et al., 2002

OLAP=Online) Data mining

Business performance analytical processing

Predictive analytics Benchmarking management

2012 ) 3

2014

.1

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2016-201555

.2

.3

1

2

3

4

5

6

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2016-2015 56

1

85

:1

14.33% 22015

120 350 32

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2016-201557

3 2015 2

2015 2

33

:3

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2016-2015 58

4 4 - 4

44

5What-if

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2016-201559

:5

6

:6

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2016-2015 60

1

24 3

5

6)7

20122012 3

2013.2015-2014

:7

Page 61: 2016-2015 · 39 2016-2015 & The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road Safety Annual Report. Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology

2016-201561

3

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2016-2015 62

Cody WF., Kreulem JT., Krishna V., Spangler WS. 2002. The integration of

business intelligence and knowledge management. IBM System Journal

41(4), 697-713.

Elbashir MZ., Collier PA., Davern MJ. 2008. Measuring the effects of business

intelligence systems: The relationship between business process and

organizational performance. International Journal of Accounting

Information Systems 9, 135–153.

Negash S., Business intelligence. 2004. Communications of the Association

for Information Systems, 13, 177-195.

Nenortaitė J., Butleris R. 2009. Improving business rules management

through the application of adaptive business intelligence technique.

Information Technology and Control 38(1), 21-28.

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2016-201565

1

20%-30%

Dragutovnik & Twisk, 2005)

1

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2016-2015 66

, National Safety Council, 2012)

.

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2016-201567

CARRS, 2012

Dragutovnik & Twisk, 2005)

. Dragutovnik & Twisk, 2005 ;CARRS ,2012

NHTSA=National)9% Highway Traffic Safety Administration

10-5National Safety Council = NSC 11% 1%

National Safety Council , 2012

43% 7% 16% 24%

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2016-2015 68

Walsh et al, 2008)

Gorman ,2014

1292.3% 2.3% 76%)

32%16% 5.4% 42%

42%

Dragutovnik & Twisk , 2005

26% NHTSA

1% 20145% 2013

Gorman,201422%

25% 71%Queensland

14%

28%

. CARRS, 2012

2011) NHTSA

,2011

400%

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2016-201569

140% 28%

NHTSA, 2011

NHTSA, 2011) 83% Pew Research Center, 2015 2008

2015 17-1576% 92%

18-16 70% 201532% 42%

2014 30National Occupant Protection Use Survey) NOPUS

16-142014 4.8% 2007 1.0%

2014 5.8% 2007 8.8%1,700 AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety

8.6% 12%3.4%

Carney & McGehee, 2016)75-50

NHTSA, 2011

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2016-2015 70

NHTSA , 2011

2014

Dragutovnik & Twisk, 2005

In) IVIS

Vehicle Information System

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2016-201571

Dragutovnik & Twisk, 2005

NHTSA, 2011)

2015-2007

16 28 1,000

4

2015-2007 19%

20122015- 15%

2013

2015-2012

34%

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2016-2015 72

1

1

1

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2016-201573

.2013

22015-2013 2013-2012 26%

2015-2012 11% 8%2 1

2

3

50%

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2016-2015 74

3

1 .

1

2 .

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2016-201575

1 .

2 .

1,500 1,000 NHTSA, 20112,000

.

3 .

4 .

5 .

6 .

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2016-2015 76

in-vehicle

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2016-201577

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2014

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Page 80: 2016-2015 · 39 2016-2015 & The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road Safety Annual Report. Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology

2016-2015 80

1

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Page 81: 2016-2015 · 39 2016-2015 & The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road Safety Annual Report. Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology

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2016-2015 84

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2016-2015 86

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Page 88: 2016-2015 · 39 2016-2015 & The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road Safety Annual Report. Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology

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OECD

2016-201589

ETSC (2016). Lithuania to trial interlock on school busses.

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100

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2016-2015 94

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2016-2015 96

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2016-2015 98

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2016-2015 100

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2016-2015 102

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Page 103: 2016-2015 · 39 2016-2015 & The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road Safety Annual Report. Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology

100

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The wisdom of the crowd, 2know .2008

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8&Month=9&IsPrintView=0&P=58

2003

2012

,8 2010

2008

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2016-2015 106

33

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2016-2015107

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2016-2015 108

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Page 110: 2016-2015 · 39 2016-2015 & The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road Safety Annual Report. Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology

2016-2015 110

3

2

5% 2%

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2016-2015111

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Page 112: 2016-2015 · 39 2016-2015 & The International Traffic Safety and Analysis Grope (IRTAD), (2015), Road Safety Annual Report. Weisburd D., Groff E. and Yang Sue-Ming, (2012), The Criminology

2016-2015 112

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2016-2015113

3

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2016-2015117

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9-17

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2016-2015 120

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2016-2015 122

)

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2016-2015 124

American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) (2009) Policy Statement- Pedestrian

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2016-2015127

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2016-2015 128

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2016-2015 130

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2016-2015 132

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2016-2015133

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2016-2015 134

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2016-2015135

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NHTSA - statement of - policy on automated vehicles

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