2016 december -- cyber-attacks & the concept of political infrasture
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Ethan S. BurgerVisiting Professor, Vilnius UniversityFulbright Senior Legal SpecialistDecember 7, 2016
Cyber-Attacks & Social MediaThe Concept of Political Infrastructure
Institute of International Relations and Political ScienceVilnius University
About four-in-ten Americans often get About four-in-ten Americans often get news onlinenews online
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The Apprentice & The PuppeteerThe Apprentice & The Puppeteer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R1vT87nrUQ
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Reality TelevisionReality Television
At one point this was really funnyhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRJg8Vg3MRghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLSy8Tl2bjshttps://www.rt.com/viral/363153-simpsons-trump-accurate-predictions/
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Russian Foreign Policy ObjectivesRussian Foreign Policy Objectives
Disrupt NATO/EU unity.
Undermine American confidence in their electoral system.
Damage the reputation of the American political and economic system both in Russia and elsewhere.
Ensure ineffective U.S. foreign and defense policies.
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BackgroundBackground One of the most pervasive narratives of the presidential
race was that Russian President Vladimir Putin was trying to upend the election — in a way that helped President-elect Donald Trump.
Politicians of both parties condemned the alleged actions of a U.S. adversary. Trump, however, often brushed off claims that Russia was meddling in the election to his benefit, while Hillary Clinton charged that Trump was encouraging Russia.
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33rdrd Presidential Debate Presidential Debate"It’s pretty clear you won’t admit that the Russians have engaged in cyberattacks against the United States of America, that you encouraged espionage against our people, that you are willing to spout the Putin line, sign up for his wish list, break up NATO, do whatever he wants to do, and that you continue to get help from him, because he has a very clear favorite in this race,“ Clinton remarked.
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Did Clinton have it right?Did Clinton have it right? Clinton’s rhetoric would lead you to believe that Putin wanted Trump to win,
and his actions during the election helped ensure that outcome. Claims that Russian government hacked Democratic politicians, had undue influence over the Trump campaign and even that it compromised voting machines all contributed to this narrative.
We wanted to know the current evidence both for and against Russian involvement. While investigations may reveal more later, we found that there isn’t conclusive proof of Russian involvement for some of these claims, and whether Putin truly prefers President Trump remains an open question.
"There is likely some truth to some of these allegations, but there has also been a bit of Russia hysteria recently on the part of some pundits, politicians and media," said Scott Radnitz, a professor at the University of Washington currently researching conspiracy theories in post-Soviet states.
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Did Putin prefer Trump to Clinton?Did Putin prefer Trump to Clinton?
Putin would appear to have reasons to favor Trump: (i) Trump seemed unhappy with NATO allies, (ii) seeming understanding of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and (iii) apparent willingness to consider lifting sanctions against Russia. Trump also praised Putin as a "strong leader."
But experts said this alone is not evidence that Putin is Trump’s puppeteer, or that he even wanted him as president. Trump's comments on Russia were unusual coming from a presidential candidate.
It’s no secret that Putin doesn’t like Clinton from her days as Secretary of State and interest in human rights, but Putin may not like Trump’s unpredictable nature.
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Russian Hacking of DNCRussian Hacking of DNC Russian hacking of DNC email and then releasing embarrassing emails
on Wikileaks (Julian Dassange is a Russian de facto agent)
The U.S. intelligence community, as well as private cybersecurity analysts, are confident that Russian actors were behind the hack.
The Homeland Security Department and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence issued a joint statement Oct. 7 saying they believed people at the top levels of Russian government directed the attack in an attempt to interfere in the election.
Some private security researchers content that believe Russians stole and leaked emails from Clinton’s campaign manager John Podesta.
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Fake NewsFake News For example, Sputnik published an article that said the
Podesta email dump included certain incriminating comments about the Benghazi scandal, an allegation that turned out to be incorrect. Trump himself repeated this false story.
But claims that the Russian government called for these fake news articles are unproven. It’s far more likely that these websites were being opportunistic, publishing them on their own accord to drive traffic.
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The Trump CampaignThe Trump Campaign Trump certainly has conducted business in Russia or with Russian
investments. Trump had difficulty getting loans from U.S. banks, so he borrowed from Russian oligarchs. Without his tax returns, however, we don’t know the full extent of his business dealings there.
Trump has taken on advisers with clearer-cut connections to Russia.
The experience of Trump’s advisers might have shaped Trump’s policy positions. But the FBI looked into the issue and found no evidence of a direct connection between the Trump campaign and the Russian government, according to news reports.
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Election DayElection Day Before the election, Russian actors gained access to the voter
registration system in Arizona, Illinois, and possibly other states. It is not clear if the perpetrators were directed by the Russian government or if they were private criminals.
But regarding Election Day itself, President Barack Obama’s administration said in a statement that it believes "our elections were free and fair from a cybersecurity perspective."
Some computer scientists identified irregularities in the results of several counties that used electronic voting in three swing states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — prompting calls for recounts. But claims that Russians are to blame for these vote tally anomalies, through hacking or other means, are baseless.
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What Does It Mean?What Does It Mean? It seems highly unlikely that actions by the Russian government
contributed in any decisive way to Trump’s win over Clinton, but it cannot be ruled out.
There might have been some influence on the issues that made headlines during the campaign, such as Trump’s Putin-friendly advisers pushing him to make Putin-friendly statements, or the hacking of the DNC.
Policymakers should still be concerned about the possibility that a foreign government might have attempted to meddle in a domestic election.
Regardless of the extent of the impact we should be concerned about the attempt which will be investigated.
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Washington Post: Russian propaganda effort helped spread Washington Post: Russian propaganda effort helped spread ‘fake news’ during election, experts say‘fake news’ during election, experts say
Russia’s increasingly sophisticated propaganda machinery — including thousands of botnets, teams of paid human “trolls,” and networks of websites and social-media accounts — echoed and amplified right-wing sites across the Internet as they portrayed Clinton as a criminal hiding potentially fatal health problems and preparing to hand control of the nation to a shadowy cabal of global financiers. The effort also sought to heighten the appearance of international tensions and promote fear of looming hostilities with nuclear-armed Russia.
Russians exploited American-made technology platforms to attack U.S. democracy at a particularly vulnerable moment, as an insurgent candidate harnessed a wide range of grievances to claim the White House. The sophistication of the Russian tactics may complicate efforts by Facebook and Google to crack down on “fake news,” as they have vowed to do after widespread complaints about the problem.
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Some News StoriesSome News Stories
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO-JOen9YOo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt1MnzbkF2g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSrQLbZ6Tvg
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Contact InformationContact Information
Ethan S. Burger, Esq.Fulbright Legal Specialist, Washington, D.C.Vilnius University // Washington College of [email protected]@[email protected]
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