Cliff BrewisVice President Content AcquisitionDodge Data & Analytics

2016 DodgeConstruction Outlook

U.S. Macroeconomic PictureThe economy continues to “wobble.”

GDP Pattern:History Forecast

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+2.2% +2.4% +2.5% +3.1% +2.9%

Shape of Recovery:• Periods of moderate expansion have been

followed by deceleration.• Geo-Political Issues• Strong dollar• Fed Raising Rates• Declines in oil, commodities and Industrials

• Dependency on Consumer Spending .

U.S. Macroeconomic OutlookEmployment growth strong in 2014. Job gains in 2015 generally healthy, but slipped in August and September.

• Jobs lost from Feb.’08 to Feb. ’10: 8.7 Million.

• Job creation so far in 2010-2015: 12.7 million. Unemployment rate at 5.1%

• Job growth. in Jan.’13- Dec.’13: 199,000 /mo.

in Jan.‘14- Dec. ‘14: 260,000 /mo.

in Jan.’15- Sept.’15: 198,000 /mo.

U.S. Construction – Dodge Momentum IndexThe Dodge Momentum Index offers insight on what lies ahead.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) tracksthe first (or initial) reports for nonresidential buildingprojects at the planning stage.

• The DMI bottomed out in July 2011,and has been trending upward since then.

• Recent increases for institutional componentindicate that the decline for this sector has reached an end, with construction nowseeing renewed growth although at a moregradual rate than shown by commercial building.

• In early 2015 the DMI leveled off, withsome loss of momentum for its commercialcomponent, followed by renewed strength in August and September.

U.S. Construction Market Sectors (Starts)The pattern has varied by major sector. 2015 Q3 showed generally decreased activity.

Arizona: Single Family HousingImproving conservatively.

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Arizona: Multi-Family HousingStrongest sector

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U.S. Multifamily HousingTop 10 Metropolitan Areas - 9 months year-to-date, 2015 vs. 2014. Based on dollars.

Arizona: OfficeShowing gradual increase

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U.S. Commercial – Office BuildingsGradual reduction in Vacancy rates, more hi-rise building.

Arizona: HotelSector tends to be highly cyclical.

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U.S:HotelsHotel construction has climbed sharply in 2011-2014. Strong growth still taking place in 2015.

Arizona: WarehousesRetail, International trade and automation impacting demand

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Arizona: Retail2016 showing signs of increasing

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U.S. Commercial – StoresOther Store Characteristics - Alterations and Average Project Size.

Arizona: EducationMore erratic than most other markets

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U.S. Institutional – Educational BuildingsTop 10 States - 9 months year-to-date, 2015 vs. 2014. Based on dollars.

Arizona: Public x schoolsMay be showing signs of increasing activity

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Arizona: HealthcareStill experiencing uncertainty

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U.S. Institutional – Healthcare FacilitiesTop 10 States – 9 months year-to-date, 2015 vs. 2014. Based on dollars.

Arizona: HighwaysFinally passed a highway bill

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U.S. Public Works – Highways and BridgesTop 10 States – 9 Months year-to-date, 2015 vs. 2014. Based on dollars.

Arizona: Total Construction

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Dodge Data & AnalyticsDollar Value of Construction Starts (in Thousands)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016EDUC $691,628 $566,271 $444,319 $550,442 $626,539 $346,889 $692,906

-18.1% -21.5% 23.9% 13.8% -44.6% 99.7%EPGC $1,163,710 $2,373,573 $903,210 $241,123 $90,716 $497,585 $639,587

104.0% -61.9% -73.3% -62.4% 448.5% 28.5%HEALTH $358,976 $315,684 $398,334 $287,240 $252,282 $279,372 $434,393

-12.1% 26.2% -27.9% -12.2% 10.7% 55.5%HIGHWAY $849,940 $726,086 $647,620 $755,477 $668,887 $428,430 $708,779

-14.6% -10.8% 16.7% -11.5% -35.9% 65.4%HOTEL $134,368 $119,959 $58,872 $58,263 $162,998 $178,233 $175,288

-10.7% -50.9% -1.0% 179.8% 9.3% -1.7%MFG $218,889 $1,753,078 $345,046 $13,525 $24,745 $141,205 $114,014

700.9% -80.3% -96.1% 83.0% 470.6% -19.3%MULTI RES $227,319 $277,718 $615,423 $837,942 $1,135,997 $894,903 $1,175,478

22.2% 121.6% 36.2% 35.6% -21.2% 31.4%OFFICE $426,872 $229,822 $250,196 $517,535 $343,155 $324,839 $392,456

-46.2% 8.9% 106.9% -33.7% -5.3% 20.8%ONEFAM $2,566,026 $2,584,841 $4,259,111 $4,868,542 $4,704,233 $6,276,686 $6,286,938

0.7% 64.8% 14.3% -3.4% 33.4% 0.2%PUB $288,883 $261,040 $257,278 $149,733 $52,850 $167,790 $262,703

-9.6% -1.4% -41.8% -64.7% 217.5% 56.6%RETAIL $213,590 $248,146 $288,349 $284,066 $276,105 $271,427 $372,217

16.2% 16.2% -1.5% -2.8% -1.7% 37.1%WARENM $97,814 $180,309 $250,487 $338,936 $314,735 $243,209 $381,970

84.3% 38.9% 35.3% -7.1% -22.7% 57.1%WATER $262,200 $340,783 $309,008 $116,636 $165,230 $235,502 $346,689

30.0% -9.3% -62.3% 41.7% 42.5% 47.2%TOTAL $8,996,613 $11,033,215 $10,414,495 $10,206,245 $10,493,812 $11,753,729 $13,222,150

22.6% -5.6% -2.0% 2.8% 12.0% 12.5%

U.S. Construction Market OutlookPoints of Perspective

QUESTIONS?Cliff BrewisVice President Content AcquisitionCliff.brewis@construction.com