The Future of a Sustainable Global Food

System

Juergen VoegeleSr. Director, Agriculture Global

PracticeThe World Bank

Photo credit: National Geographic, March 2016.

2

• Able to feed every person, every day, in every country with a safe, nutritious and affordable diet (+35% more food - FAO)

• Jobs and income gains in the food system to meet poverty reduction targets (+4.5% per capita income growth - DEC)

Improved health outcomes

End of hunger & reduced child stunting (to 5%)

Reduced food related NCDsNo net increase in obesity

Improved sustainability

Reduced GHG emissions Improved land & water mgtProtected local communities & biodiversity

2030 Vision for the Global Food System

SDG Goal 2: End Hunger, achieve food security, and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture

Projected Trends Will Not Get Us There

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Increase in Food Production (%) by 2030 Income Increase to 2030 (% per year)

Health Outcomes (bn people) by 2030 GHG Emissions from Agriculture (% change)

by 2030

+20%*

+35%

Trend Vision

+13%*

-25%

Trend Vision

2.5%*

4.5%*

Trend Vision

• 2.5.% is 10 yr trend growth (2003-2012) of agricultural labor productivity

in low income countries projected forward to 2030; 4.5% is estimated

agricultural incomes gains of the poor needed to end poverty by 2030.

• Trend assumes a 2oC warmer world by 2030 and an associated

10% reduction in food crop yields

• Trend includes diets/consumption shifts with increased incomes

• Trend assumes 8% undernourishment rate and 6.8 bn people in

developing countries by 2030, Vision is 3%.• Trend: WRI estimates

0.50.2

1.4

0.7

Trend Vision

Undernourished

Obese

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Global Food System: the need to focus on delivering improved nutrition and health

• The triple burden of malnutrition:• 795 million people afflicted by hunger

• Over 2 billion deficient in key vitamins and minerals

• Over 2 billion overweight or obese (2/3 in developing countries)

• The overall burden of food borne diseases is comparable to that of major infectious diseases; the burden is highest for young children and in low-income countries (WHO, 2015)

• The Global Food System needs to shift from being part of the problem to being part of the solution

“Better Food: Shaping the Global Food System to

Deliver Improved Nutrition and Health” prepared for the 2016 Spring Meetings of the

World Bank and IMF

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The challenges of ending poverty, undernourishment, stunting, and obesity vary across low- middle- and high-income countries

47.2

12.5

27.0

12.0

37.6

24.3

3.34.67.5

18.8

Low Income Middle Income High Income

Poverty headcount at $1.90 a day (% of total population)

Undernourishment (% of total population)

Stunting of children < 5 (%)

Obesity (% of total population)

Producers

Reduce hunger

Reduce hidden hunger

Reduce excessive calorie intake

Improve food safety

Increase food availability: crop and livestock productivity, resilience, reduced taxation of agriculture

Reduce food loss through improved planning and storage

Low income Middle income High income

Processors/post-harvest

Reduce hunger

Reduce hidden hunger

Reduce excessive calorie intake

Improve food safety

Consumers

Reduce hunger

Reduce hidden hunger

Reduce excessive calorie intake

Improve food safety

Improve diet quality: align producer/price policies to demand, diversification, agricultural extension, R&D for nutrient-rich crops/bio-fortification, increase income earning opportunities for women

Address the misuse of pesticides, control antibiotics use in livestock/aquaculture, safe irrigation

Promote food fortification, reduce subsidy biases for ingredients in processed foods

Support food labelling, restrict food/beverage advertising for children, limit specific dietary factors

Enhance food safety regulations, control aflatoxin, support private operator food safety management

Ensure policy consistency to reduce food price volatility, support public campaigns to reduce food waste, support home grown school feeding programs

Expand nutrition education and home grown school feeding, promote healthy dietary guidelines

Support consumer engagement in regulatory development processes, healthy dietary guidelines, reduce subsidy biases on foods high in salt, oil and sugar and consider taxing options