2016 transportation construction market forecast & surface … · 2019. 2. 17. · forecast of...

2016 Transportation Construction

Market Forecast

& Surface Transportation

Reauthorization Update

Dave Bauer & Alison Premo Black, PhDDecember 2, 2015

SURFACE TRANSPORTATION

REAUTHORIZATION UPDATE

Highway/Transit Bill Status

• Programs extended to December 4, 2015

• The FAST Act

�Finalized by the House and Senate December 1

�Five years, $286 billion

�House expected to act December 3, then will

move to the Senate

FAST Act Highlights

• Highway Investment

�FY 2016: $42.4 B

�FY 2017: $43.3 B

�FY 2018: $44.2 B

�FY 2019: $45.3 B

�FY 2020: $46.4 B

Highway Investment Impact

$46.4

$41.3

$40.3

$42.0

$37.0

$38.0

$39.0

$40.0

$41.0

$42.0

$43.0

$44.0

$45.0

$46.0

$47.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bil

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of

do

lla

rs

Nominal Obligations Adjusted for Project Costs Adjusted for Inflation

Source: ARTBA analysis of FAST Act. Inflation forecast from CBO's August 2015 report "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025."

FAST Act Highlights

• Public Transportation Investment

�FY 2016: $11.8 B

�FY 2017: $12.0 B

�FY 2018: $12.2 B

�FY 2019: $12.4 B

�FY 2020: $12.6 B

Transit Investment Impact

$12.6

$10.7

$11.4

$10.0

$10.5

$11.0

$11.5

$12.0

$12.5

$13.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bil

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of

do

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FAST Act Nominal Transit Obligations Adjusted for Inflation

Source: ARTBA analysis of FAST Act. Inflation forecast from CBO's August 2015 report "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025."

FAST ACT Highlights

• National Freight Program

�$1.1 B in FY 2016 to $1.5 B in FY 2020

�All states benefit

• Nationally Significant Freight & Highway

Projects Program

�$800 M in FY 2016 to $1 B in FY 2020

�Grants awarded by U.S. DOT

FAST ACT Highlights

• Other Provisions

�TIFIA

�Accelerated Project Delivery

�HTF Transparency

�Hours of Service

FAST Act & HTF

• $70 B in New HTF Revenue

�One-time resources

�Variety of Contributors

�Return of HTF crisis

�Unless….

2016 TRANSPORTATION

CONSTRUCTION FORECAST

ARTBA’s Transportation Construction Forecast Model

• Series of econometric models forecasting the

market as measured by the U.S. Census

Bureau’s Value of Construction Put in Place

• The models predicts an overall spending level

for each mode based on a variety of

independent variables

Forecast of U.S. Transportation Construction

$200.5 $208.3 $214.0 $219.2 $224.0 $228.0

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bil

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20

15

$

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model. Includes spending on highways, private driveways and commercial parking lots, bridges and tunnels, mass transit, railroads, ports & waterways, airport runways & terminals, plus state and local government expenditures on highway and bridge planning and design, right of way purchases and maintenance.

ARTBA 2016 Transportation Construction Forecast

Major Market 2015 estimate 2016 Forecast % Change

Highway & street pavements $55.95 $58.10 +4

Private driveways & parking lots $12.91 $13.25 +6

Bridges & tunnels $33.30 $34.60 +4

Airport terminals & runways $12.88 $14.28 +11

Subway & light rail $7.82 $7.56 -3

Railroads $13.49 $13.57 +1

Ports & Waterways $2.26 $2.30 +2

The ARTBA Price Index is used to calculate the real value

of construction spending

4%

2%

1%

2%

5%6%

5%

4%

7%

-3%

3%

5%

2%1% 1%

3%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Annual Percent Change in the ARTBA Price Index

Source: The ARTBA Price Index takes into account changes in material costs, inflation and industry wages.

Outlook for U.S. Airport Terminal & Runway Construction

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

(e

)

20

16

(f)

20

17

(f)

20

18

(f)

20

19

(f)

20

20

(f)

Bill

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01

5$

Real Value of Airport Terminal & Runway Construction Work

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model

Forecast for U.S. Airport Construction

$5.8 $6.0 $6.2 $6.4 $6.7 $6.9

$5.0 $5.9 $6.6 $7.1 $7.6 $8.0$2.1

$2.4$2.9

$3.4$3.8

$4.2

$12.9$14.3

$15.6$16.9

$18.1$19.2

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

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of

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15

$

Runways Terminals OtherSource: ARTBA Forecast Model

MA

RI

Market outlook is mixed from state to state, based on recent state & local government airport runway contract awards

Source: ARTBA analysis of McGraw Hill Dodge data for state and local government contract awards. Rolling 12 month totals for November 2014 to October 2015 and November 2013 to October 2014. Nominal values have been adjusted with the ARTBA Price Index for project costs.

ND

SD

WYID

MO

IA

WI

NE

KSCO

OKAR

MS AL

SCNM

TN

KYNC

OH

PA

NY

ME

UTNV

AZ

OR

WA

MT

TX

FL

VT

NH

CTNJ

DE

DC

AK

HI

MI

IN

WV

LA

CA

IL

GA

Airport contract

awards are up in the last

12 months

Airport contract

awards are up or down

within 5%

Airport contract

awards are down

MN

VA

MD

Outlook for U.S. Subway & Light Rail Construction

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

(e

)

20

16

(f)

20

17

(f)

20

18

(f)

20

19

(f)

20

20

(f)

Bill

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5$

Real Value of Subway & Light Rail Transit Construction Work


Forecast of U.S. Subway & Light Rail Transit Construction

$7.8 $7.6 $8.0$8.6 $9.1 $9.3

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bil

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15

$


Outlook for U.S. Railroad Construction

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

(e

)

20

16

(f)

20

17

(f)

20

18

(f)

20

19

(f)

20

20

(f)

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5$

Real Value of Railroad Construction Work


Forecast of U.S. Railroad Construction

$13.5 $13.6 $13.8 $14.0 $14.3 $14.6

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bil

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of

20

15

$


MI

MA

RI

Market outlook is mixed from state to state, based on recent state & local government rail & transit contract awards


ND

SD

WYID

MO

IA

WI

NE

KSCO

OKAR

MS AL

SCNM

TN

KYNC

OH

PA

NY

ME

UTNV

AZ

OR

WA

MT

TX

FL

VT

NH

CTNJ

DE

DC

AK

HI

IN

WV

LA

CA

IL

GA

Rail & transit contract


12 months

R Rail & transit contract


within 5%

Rail & transit contract

awards are down

MN

VA

MD

Outlook for U.S. Port & Waterway Construction

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

(e

)

20

16

(f)

20

17

(f)

20

18

(f)

20

19

(f)

20

20

(f)

Bill

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5$

Real Value of Port & Waterway Construction Work


Forecast of U.S. Ports & Waterway Construction

$2.26 $2.30 $2.33 $2.37 $2.40 $2.44

$0

$1

$1

$2

$2

$3

$3

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bil

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of

20

15

$


MI

MA

RI

Market outlook is mixed from state to state, based on recent state & local government port & waterway contract awards


ND

SD

WYID

MO

IA

WI

NE

KSCO

OKAR

MS AL

SCNM

TN

KYNC

OH

PA

NY

ME

UTNV

AZ

OR

WA

MT

TX

FL

VT

NH

CTNJ

DE

DC

AK

HI

IN

WV

LA

CA

IL

GA

Port & waterway

contract awards are up in

the last 12 months

Port & waterway

contract awards are up or

down within 5%

Port & waterway

contract awards are down

MN

VA

MD

Major Factors for Highway & Bridge Outlook

• Five-year federal funding levels

• Recovery in state and local spending

• Focus on bridge work

• State and local funding initiatives

• Improved state and local government revenues

• Recovery in housing market

• Modest uptick in transportation bonding activity

Outlook for U.S. Highway & Street Pavement Construction

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

(e

)

20

16

(f)

20

17

(f)

20

18

(f)

20

19

(f)

20

20

(f)

Bill

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5$

Real Value of Pavement & Related Construction Work


Forecast for U.S. Highway & Pavement Construction

$55.9 $58.1 $59.0 $59.8 $60.6 $61.3

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bil

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of

20

15

$


MI

MA

RI

Market outlook is mixed from state to state, based on recent state & local government highway contract awards


ND

SD

WYID

MO

IA

WI

NE

KSCO

OKAR

MS AL

SCNM

TN

KYNC

OH

PA

NY

ME

UTNV

AZ

OR

WA

MT

TX

FL

VT

NH

CTNJ

DE

DC

AK

HI

IN

WV

LA

CA

IL

GA

Pavement contract


12 months

Pavement contract


within 5%

Pavement contract

awards are down

MN

VA

MD

Forecast for U.S. Private Driveways & Parking Lots

$12.5 $13.2$14.6 $15.2 $15.8 $16.3

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bil

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of

20

15

$


Outlook for U.S. Bridge & Tunnel Pavement Construction

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

(e

)

20

16

(f)

20

17

(f)

20

18

(f)

20

19

(f)

20

20

(f)

Bill

ion

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5$

Real Value of Bridge & Tunnel Construction Work


Forecast for U.S. Bridge & Tunnel Construction

$33.3 $34.6 $35.1 $35.6 $36.1 $36.5

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bil

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of

20

15

$


MI

MA

RI

Market outlook is mixed from state to state, based on recent state & local government bridge & tunnel contract awards


ND

SD

WYID

MO

IA

WI

NE

KSCO

OKAR

MS AL

SCNM

TN

KYNC

OH

PA

NY

ME

UTNV

AZ

OR

WA

MT

TX

FL

VT

NH

CTNJ

DE

DC

AK

HI

IN

WV

LA

CA

IL

GA

Bridge & tunnel

contract awards are up in

the last 12 months

Bridge & tunnel

contract awards are up or

down within 5%

Bridge & tunnel

contract awards are down

MN

VA

MD

The bridge and tunnel market share has increased from 18% to 37% since TEA-21

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(e)

Bridge and tunnel share of real highway & bridge

construction market

Source: ARTBA analysis of U.S. Census Bureau value of construction put in place for pavement, bridge and tunnel and other-highway related work

U.S. State & Local Government Highway & Bridge

Maintenance Forecast

$40.5$42.0 $42.6

$43.3 $43.9 $44.3

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bill

ion

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5$


U.S. Highway & Bridge Planning & Design Forecast for

State & Local Governments

$14.3$14.8 $15.0

$15.2 $15.5 $15.6

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bill

ion

s o

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01

5$

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model. Includes work completed in-house by State DOTs and local governments, as well as work contracted to third parties.

U.S. Right of Way Forecast for State & Local Highway

& Bridge Programs

$7.5$7.8 $8.0

$8.1 $8.2 $8.3

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bill

ion

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01

5$

Source: ARTBA Forecast Model. Includes work completed in-house by State DOTs and local governments, as well as work contracted to third parties.

Forecast for Private Highway & Bridge Construction

(largely related to residential developments)

$45.9 $47.7$52.5 $54.9 $56.9 $58.9

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2015 (e) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f)

Bil

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of

20

15

$


Public Private Partnerships (P3) are an important part of the market …

• Ten highway-related projects (over $9 billion) came to financial

close in 2015

• 36 active TIFIA projects approved as of Dec 1, 2015

– TIFIA loans totaling $14.6 billion for $52.3 billion in projects in 16 states

• P3s have averaged 2-5% of capital investment in highways and

11% of new capacity since 2008

• Between 1989 and 2011, 24 states and D.C. have used a P3

process to help finance and build:

– 96 transportation projects valued at $54.3 billion

– 65% of the projects occur in eight states

– 79 projects worth $31.5 billion were design-build

Sources: ARTBA’s “The Role of Private Investment in Meeting U.S. Transportation Infrastructure Needs”, Public Works Financing, U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration

Real state and local government contract awards – January to October

$37.4

$13.7

$33.6

$12.0

$36.9

$19.0

$36.1

$12.3

$40.2

$15.6

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

Highways Bridges

Bil

lio

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20

14

$

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: ARTBA analysis of McGraw Hill Data, adjusted with the ARTBA Price Index for project costs

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

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15

$

Average 2011-2013 2014 2015

The Real Value of State & Local Government Highway & Bridge

Contract Awards

Source: Dodge Data Analytics adjusted with ARTBA Price Index

Fleet Size Outlook for Earthmoving, Paving & Compaction

and Other Equipment

8% 13% 11%

87% 77% 82%

5% 10% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Earthmoving Paving & Compaction Other equipment

% o

f su

rve

y re

spo

nd

en

ts

Transportation Contractor Outlook for Fleet Equipment Size

Increase the size of their fleet Maintain current fleet Reduce fleet or undecided

Source: ARTBA Transportation Design and Construction Industry 2016 Market Conditions Survey

Source: ARTBA analysis of FHWA Highway Statistics data, total ten year average 2004-2013 from tables SF-1 and SF-2. The percent is the ratio of federal aid reimbursements to the state and total state capital outlays and is indicative of the importance of the federal aid program to state capital spending for highways and bridges. Does not include local capital spending. Federal highway reimbursements are primarily used for capital outlays, including construction, right of way and engineering, but are also used for debt service for GARVEE bonds.

* States that have issued GARVEE bonds before 2013.

89%*

35%

53%

60%*

68%*

87%*

72%

52%

56%*

72%*

83%*

69%*

71%

46%

50%

61%*

41%

65%

59%

69%

52%

39%

41%

60%

43%*

65%

66%* 67%*

60%*

55%

45%

66%

47%*

66%*

36%

53%

*

61%*

64%*

40%

HI

77%

83%

VT

80%

CT

70%

RI

97%*

DE

42%*

NJ

31%*

MD

45%*

DC

52%*

NH

58%*

50 to 69% of state highway &

bridge capital outlays

MA

41%

49%

Over 70% of state highway &

bridge capital outlays30 to 49% of state highway &

bridge capital outlays

Federal funds, on average, provide 52% of annual state DOT capital

outlays for highway & bridge projects

Federal, State and Local Construction Investment in Highway & Bridge Projects

Net Plus/Minus Compared to 2008 Investment Levels

-$10

-$8

-$6

-$4

-$2

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(e) 2016(f) 2017(f) 2018(f) 2019(f) 2020(f)

An

nu

al i

nve

stm

en

t d

iffe

ren

ce, i

n b

illio

ns,

fro

m 2

00

8

leve

ls

The decline in state and local spending since 2008 is showing signs of recovery.

Federal reimbursements/investments Total highway & bridge construction investment State & local investment

Sources: Total highway & bridge construction investment is the annual US Census Bureau value of construction put in place. Federal investment is calculated as 66% of federal outlays in a given fiscal year, the historical average for construction work supported by the federal program based on data from FHWA. Total federal outlays are from the CBO August 2015 Highway Trust Fund projections. State and local investment estimate is the difference between the total market and federal investment. All data adjusted for project costs. For more details, contact ARTBA chief economist, Dr. Alison Premo Black at [email protected] or 202-289-4434. © 2015 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

Real state and local tax revenues have surpassed pre-recession levels

$1.37$1.42 $1.46 $1.45

$1.40 $1.40 $1.40 $1.41$1.47 $1.48

$1.54

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

$1.8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(e)

In t

rilli

on

s 2

01

5 $

Inflation-Adjusted State & Local Total Revenues

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly State & Local Tax Revenues, adjusted with Consumer Price Index

State and local governments transportation bond issues

were down 31% in 2014

$30.7$36.6

$11.6 $13.9$18.3

$12.4 $10.1

$3.9

$12.0

$5.1$6.0

$4.9

$3.6

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

In b

illi

on

s$

Nominal State & Local Bond Issues for Transportation

YTD Jan - Oct Nov-Dec

Source: Federal Reserve

2015 State Transportation Funding Initiatives

Gas tax increases in 16 states since 2013

5

1

4

1

0

2

4

0

3

0 0

1

4

1

0 0

6

2

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Number of States Approving Legislation to Raise

Gas Taxes or Related Fees

Source: ARTBA analysis of state legislative information

AK

WA

OR

CA

ID

MT

WY

NV

AZ

CO

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

MN

IA

MO

WI

IL

MI

IN

KY

TN

MS AL

OH

NY

PA

VA

NC

GA

FL

ME

WV

AR

UT

HIHI

SC

VT

CT

RI

DE

NJ

MD

DC

NH

MA

LA

Twenty-three states approved 36 transportation measures to support

transportation investment in 2015

Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report, November 2015

Gas Tax Increase Approved Other Funding Measure

AK

WA

OR

CA

ID

MT

WY

NV

AZ

CO

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

MN

IA

MO

WI

IL

MI

IN

KY

TN

MS AL

OH

NY

PA

VA

NC

GA

FL

ME

WV

AR

UT

HIHI

SC

VT

CT

RI

DE

NJ

MD

DC

NH

MA

LA

Proposed Gas Tax Increase

Twenty-two states introduced legislation to raise or index

their state gas tax or related fees in 2015


Proposed Variable Rate

AK

WA

OR

CA

ID

MT

WY

NV

AZ

CO

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

MN

IA

MO

WI

IL

MI

IN

KY

TN

MS AL

OH

NY

PA

VA

NC

GA

FL

ME

WV

AR

UT

HIHI

SC

VT

CT

RI

DE

NJ

MD

DC

NH

MA

LA


Proposed Gas Tax Increase Gas Tax Increase 2013-14

Twenty-two states introduced legislation to raise or index

their state gas tax or related fees in 2015

Proposed Variable Rate

Voters Approved $22 Billion in Transportation Investment in 2015

Bonds: 6

measures, 10% of

total ballots

General Sales Tax: 25 measures,

41% of total

ballots

Property or Income Tax: 21

measures, 34% of

total ballots

“Fuel Tax”: 4

measures, 7% of

total ballots

“Other”: 5, 8%

61 Transportation Measures

On the Ballot69% of Measures

Approved

• Bond Measures: 83%

approved.

• General Sales Tax: 60%

approved.

• Fuel Tax: 50% approved.

• Property or Income Tax:

76% approved.

Transportation Funding Ballot Measures

Approved 2005-2015

74%69%

63%73%

80%

61%68%

77%85%

79%69% 73%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average

However, a growing percentage of contractors expect

normal or above normal growth in the next 12 months…

13%

6% 7%11%12%

8%4%

15%

22%

13%10%

13%

21%25%

28%29%

38%

31%35%

56%

44%46% 46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1Q

20

10

2Q

20

10

3Q

20

10

4Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

2Q

20

11

3Q

20

11

4Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

2Q

20

12

3Q

20

12

4Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

2Q

20

13

3Q

20

13

4Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

2Q

20

14

3Q

20

14

4Q

20

14

1Q

20

15

2Q

20

15

3Q

20

15

Pe

rce

nt

of

Re

spo

nd

en

ts

ARTBA Quarterly Survey: Normal/Above Normal Growth Outlook

Source: ARTBA Quarterly Market Conditions Survey

Fewer contractors expect a recession in the next

12 months…

52%54%

57%

49%

38%

50%

56%

36%30%

37%33%

24%27%

16%

21%

14%

7% 7%6%

10% 10%

4%7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1Q

20

10

2Q

20

10

3Q

20

10

4Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

2Q

20

11

3Q

20

11

4Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

2Q

20

12

3Q

20

12

4Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

2Q

20

13

3Q

20

13

4Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

2Q

20

14

3Q

20

14

4Q

20

14

1Q

20

15

2Q

20

15

3Q

20

15

Pe

rce

nt

of

Re

spo

nd

en

ts

ARTBA Quarterly Survey: Recession Outlook


Almost half of contractors expect sluggish growth in

the next 12 months…

35%

40%

36%

39%

50%

42%40%

48% 48%50%

57%

63%

52%

60%

51%57%55%

63%59%

35%

46%49%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1Q

20

10

2Q

20

10

3Q

20

10

4Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

2Q

20

11

3Q

20

11

4Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

2Q

20

12

3Q

20

12

4Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

2Q

20

13

3Q

20

13

4Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

2Q

20

14

3Q

20

14

4Q

20

14

1Q

20

15

2Q

20

15

3Q

20

15

Pe

rce

nt

of

Re

spo

nd

en

ts

ARTBA Quarterly Survey: Sluggish Growth Outlook


ARTBA Economic Resources

• ARTBA Member Reports, Economic Profile

• Subscription Reports

– Contract Awards

– Value of Construction Put in Place

– Federal Obligations by State

– Contractor Survey

• Custom Reports & State Economic Impact

Studies

QUESTIONS?

2016 transportation construction market forecast & surface … · 2019. 2. 17. · forecast of...

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