2016 trend report - new orleans · incident, by the total number of murders that occurred ......
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Murders and Shootings
2016 Trend Report
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MurdersIn 2016
• There were 174 murders in 2016
• Murders in the 2nd half of 2016
increased 53% over the 1st half
of the year. At year end, murders
increased 6.1% over 2015 (+10)
• The plurality of murders
occurred in the 5th (37) and 7th
(39) Districts (44% of the total)
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Historical Murder TrendIn 2016, there were 174 murders; one more than the 2010-15 average (+5.8%)
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173174
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Murders in New Orleans: Historical Comparison
2010-15 Avg. 2016
Historical Murder Rate TrendIn 2016, the murder rate was 44.4 per 100,000, 2.4 fewer people per 100,000 compared to the 2010-15 average
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46.9
44.4
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New Orleans Murder Rate: Historical Comparison
2010-15 Avg. 2016
MurdersYearend
• There were 6.1% more murders
in 2016 than in 2015
• Murders in 2016 spiked during
the last quarter of the year
bringing its total over 2015
5
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Murders Citywide (174)
2010-15 Avg. 2015 2016
Murdersin Hot Spots
• “Hot spot” neighborhoods
include Behrman, Central City,
Little Woods, Seventh Ward, St.
Claude, St. Roch, and Treme
• Murders in Hot Spot
Neighborhoods account for
more than 40% of all murders in
New Orleans compared to 43%
in 2015
6
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Murders in Hot Spots (72)
2010-15 Avg. 2015 2016
Murdersby District
• The 1st, 4th, 7th, and 8th Districts
experienced a decline in
murders in 2016 compared to
2015
• The 2nd District saw the highest
change over 2015 (+58%)
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Murders by District
2010-15 Avg. 2015 2016
MurdersRolling Average
• A rolling average smooths out
short-term fluctuations and
highlights longer-term trends
or cycles
• In the 2nd half of 2016, there
was a six-month rolling
average of 18 murders per
month
• That was the highest rolling
average since June 2015
8
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Six Month Rolling Average (17.8)
Murders by Neighborhood
• The Seventh Ward led all
neighborhoods in 2016 with
19 murders
• The top five neightborhoods
were Hot Spot Neighborhoods
(Seventh Ward, Central City,
Little Woods, St. Roch, and
Treme) with 67 murders
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19
16
14
11
7
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
7th Ward
Little Woods
Central City
St. Roch
Treme
Mid City
Plum Orchard
Pines Village
Gentilly Terrace
St Claude
Hollygrove
Milan
Broadmoor
Dixon
Fairgrounds
Behrman
Holy Cross
Read Blvd East
Tall Timbers-Bretchel
Naval Area
Top 20 Neighborhoods
Murders by Time of Day
• Over a two year period, 2015
and 2016, the plurality of
murders occurred in the
evening
• With the exception of the 3rd
Quarter 2015, murders
consistently occurred less in
the morning than other times
of the day (typically >=15% of
all occurrences)
10
2015 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
Morning 11% 15% 30% 12%
Afternoon 24% 22% 8% 21%
Evening 43% 35% 40% 42%
Overnight 22% 28% 22% 25%
2016 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
Morning 13% 8% 12% 13%
Afternoon 30% 22% 13% 21%
Evening 40% 41% 40% 43%
Overnight 17% 30% 35% 23%
Morning: 6:00am - 11:59am
Afternoon: 12:00pm - 5:59pm
Evening: 6:00pm - 11:59pm
Overnight: 12:00am - 5:59am
Murders by Identified Motive
• There were 66 identified
motives in 2015 and 101 in
2016
• Murders motivated by
retaliation and feuds
increased by more than 300%
over 2015
• Sixty-six percent of murders
motivated by retaliation and
feuds in 2016 occurred
between June and December
• Domestic and drug related
murders decreased under
2015 (-46% and -12%
respectively)
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Argument/Dist.
Domestic Dispute
Drug-Related
Retaliation-Feud
Robbery
Escapte
Murders by Identified Motive
2015 (66) 2016 (101)
Murder Clearances
• The clearance rate in 2016
was 47%
• The average three year
clearance rate was about 48%
• Murder clearance rate is
calculated by dividing the
number of murders cleared by
arrest, warrant, and exception
within a calendar year,
regardless of the year of
incident, by the total number
of murders that occurred
within that same calendar year
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2014
2015
2016
UCR Murder Clearance Rates by Year
Arrest Warrant Exception Unsolved
Murder Clearances by District
• Murder clearance rates vary
by NOPD Districts
• On average, about 1 out of 4
murders are cleared across
districts
• By yearend 2016, the 8th
District cleared 75% of its
murders
• Murder clearance rates by
district examines murders in
2016 cleared within the same
year by arrest, warrant or
exception
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29%32%
35%
27%
27%
35% 21%
75%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Murder Clearances by District
Cleared Open
Murder Suspectsby Race
• Over a two year period, 2015
and 2016, at least 90% of
arrested murder suspects
were African-American
14
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016
Murder Suspects by Race (last eight quarters)
Black White Other
Murder Suspectsby Gender
• Between 2015 and 2016,
about 1 out of 10 arrested
murder suspects were female
• However, 20% arrested
murder suspects were female
in 3rd Quarter 2016
15
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016
Murder Suspects by Gender(last eight quarters)
Male Female
Non-Fatal Shooting Victims
In 2016
• There were 411 non-fatal
shooting victims in 2016, more
than 50% of whom were shot in
the 2nd half of the year (230)
• Non-fatal shooting victims
increased 20.8% over 2015
• There was a total of 566
shooting victims (fatal and non-
fatal) in 2016, an increase of
15.5% over 2015
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Non-Fatal Shooting VictimsYearend
• The number of non-fatal
shooting victims increased over
2015 and the five year, 2010-
2015, average (+71 and +35
respectively)
• There were fewer non-fatal
shooting victims in 2016
compared to the 2010-2015
average until November when
2016 surpassed the average
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Non-Fatal Shooting Victims Citywide (411)
2010-15 Avg. 2015 2016
Non-Fatal Shooting Victimsin Hot Spots
• “Hot spot” neighborhoods
include Behrman, Central City,
Little Woods, Seventh Ward, St.
Claude, St. Roch, and Treme
• Similar to 2015 (43%), non-fatal
shooting victims in Hot Spot
Neighborhoods accounted for
about 45% of all shooting
victims in New Orleans
18
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Non-Fatal Shooting Victims in Hot Spots (186)
2010-15 Avg. 2015 2016
Non-Fatal Shooting Victimsby District
• With the exception of the 1st and
6th Districts, the number of non-
fatal shooting victims increased
across NOPD Districts over 2015
• The 5th District experienced the
greatest increase of +29 over
2015 (about +41%)
19
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Non-Fatal Shooting Victims by District
2010-15 Avg. 2015 2016
Non-Fatal Shooting VictimsRolling Average
• A rolling average smooths out
short-term fluctuations and
highlights longer-term trends
or cycles
• In the 2nd half of 2016, there
was a six-month rolling
average of 35 non-fatal
shooting victims per month
• That was the highest rolling
average since September
2014
20
15
20
25
30
35
40
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Six Month Rolling Average (30)
Non-Fatal Shooting Victims by Neighborhood
• Central City led all
neighborhoods in 2016
• Five of the top six
neightborhoods were Hot Spot
Neighborhoods (Central City,
Seventh Ward, Little Woods,
St. Roch, and St. Claude) with
165 non-fatal shooting victims
21
45
41
35
26
19
18
16
12
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
7
7
6
6
6
Central City
Seventh Ward
Little Woods
St. Roch
CBD
St Claude
Pines Village
Behrman
Tall Timbers-Bretchel
Desire Area
Leonidas
Gentilly Woods
Lower 9th Ward
Treme
Mid City
New Aurora
Milneburg
Dillard
Milan
West Lake Forest
Top 20 Neighborhoods
Non-Fatal Shooting Victims by Time of Day
• Over a two year period, 2015
and 2016, the plurality of non-
fatal shooting victims
occurred in the evening
22
2015 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
Morning 12% 4% 24% 4%
Afternoon 20% 33% 10% 16%
Evening 48% 39% 49% 65%
Overnight 20% 24% 17% 15%
2016 First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
Morning 16% 19% 16% 4%
Afternoon 35% 5% 5% 28%
Evening 32% 54% 53% 48%
Overnight 18% 22% 26% 20%
Morning: 6:00am - 11:59am
Afternoon: 12:00pm - 5:59pm
Evening: 6:00pm - 11:59pm
Overnight: 12:00am - 5:59am
Non-Fatal Shooting Clearances by District
• Non-fatal shooting clearance
rates vary by NOPD Districts
• On average, more than 1 out
of 4 non-fatal shootings are
cleared across Districts
• In 2016, the 8th District cleared
about 85% (11 out of 13) of its
non-fatal shootings
• Non-fatal shooting clearance
rates by Districts examines
murders within the current
year cleared by arrest, warrant,
and exception
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7%
50%
6%
19%
20%
7%
20%85%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Non-Fatal Clearances by District
Cleared Open
NOTE: UCR clearance data for non-fatal shootings (aggravated assault) was
not available at the time of this report publishing.
NOTE: Identified motive data for non-fatal shootings was not available at the
time of this report publishing due to changes to their identification
methodology and inconsistency of data reported.
Non-Fatal Shooting Suspectsby Race
• Over a two year period, 2015
and 2016, African-Americans
accounted for more than 85%
of arrested non-fatal shooting
suspects
24
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016
Non-Fatal Shooting Suspects by Race (last eight quarters)
Black White
Non-Fatal Shooting Suspectsby Gender
• Between 2015 and 2016,
about 1 out of 10 arrested
non-fatal shooting suspects
were female
• Nearly 1 out of 4 arrested non-
fatal shooting suspects were
female in 2nd Quarter 2015
25
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016
Non-Fatal Shooting Suspects by Gender(last eight quarters)
Male Female
Contact InformationFor Additional Questions and Comments
For further information about future activities and reports, please contact:
Sarah Schirmer
Criminal Justice Policy Advisor
Office of Criminal Justice Coordination
Office of Mayor Mitch Landrieu
1300 Perdido St.
Suite 8W03
New Orleans, LA 70112
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