20160320 workshop seoul

Artificial Intelligence?Machine Learning?

JinYeong [email protected] of Computing, KAIST

About Me• JinYeong Bak ([email protected])

• Ph.D. student at KAIST, U&I Lab– MS degree at KAIST– BS degree at SKKU

• Research interests– Machine Learning– Computational Social Science

• Research interns– Microsoft Research Asia, 2013– United Nations Pulse Lab Jakarta, 2016

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INTRODUCTION

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AlphaGo

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AlphaGo• Computer program

– Developed by Google DeepMind– Play the board game Go

• Algorithm: a combination of– Artificial neural networks– Machine learning (reinforcement learning)– Monte Carlo tree search

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AlphaGo

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AlphaGo

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So…

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Contents• Artificial Intelligence• My research

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

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Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol

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Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol• Can AlphaGo win all people?

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Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol• Can AlphaGo win all people?• Can AI control human being?

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Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol• Can AlphaGo win all people?• Can AI control human being?• Can AI make the Terminator?

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Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol• Can AlphaGo win all people?• Can AI control human being?• Can AI make the Terminator?• Do we all die?

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AlphaGo• Computer program

– Developed by Google DeepMind– Play the board game Go

• Algorithm: a combination of– Artificial neural networks– Machine learning (reinforcement learning)– Monte Carlo tree search

2016-03-2012

Artificial intelligenceThe intelligence exhibited by machines

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Artificial intelligenceHow to create computers and computer software that are capable of intelligent behavior

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Artificial intelligence - Types• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

2016-03-2015

Artificial intelligence• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)

– Weak AI– Specializes in one area– Ex) AlphaGo, Siri, Spam mail filter, Translator, etc…

• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

2016-03-2016

Artificial intelligence• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

– Strong AI (Human level AI)– Be as smart as a human across the board– “a very general mental capability that, among other things,

involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.”

• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

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Artificial intelligence• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

– Be smarter than the best human brains in every field

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Intelligence• The ability to learn or understand things or to deal with new

or difficult situations

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Intelligence• The ability to learn or understand things or to deal with new or difficult

situations• Capacity for

– Logic– Abstract thought– Understanding– Self-awareness– Communication– Learning– Emotional knowledge– Memory– Planning– Creativity– Problem solving

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Human Intelligence Growth

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AI is coming

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Opinions on ASI Arrival

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Opinions on ASI Arrival

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Opinions on ASI Arrival• Optimism• Pessimism

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Opinions on ASI Arrival• Optimism

– AIs can solve any problems– Humans can have eternal life

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Opinions on ASI Arrival• Pessimism

– AIs work hard to achieve the goal

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– AIs work hard to achieve the goal– AIs are amoral

• Not moral• Not immoral• Not involving questions of right or wrong

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– AIs work hard to achieve the goal– AIs are amoral

• Not moral• Not immoral• Not involving questions of right or wrong

– Can Humans control ASI?• ASI is smarter than humans

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In the future…

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My opinionMore like optimismReasons

– The goal is given by human– Moral/Immoral is coming from human

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My opinion

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My opinionMore like optimismReasons

– The goal is given by human– Moral/Immoral is coming from human– I am machine learning researcher

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OK…

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MY RESEARCH – BACKGROUND

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Artificial intelligenceHow to create computers and computer software that are capable of intelligent behavior

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Machine learning• Subfield of artificial intelligence • Study of pattern recognition and computational

learning theory

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Topic modeling• Subfield of machine learning• Discovering the abstract "topics" that occur in a

collection of documents

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Topic modeling - Introduction

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• What are the topics discussed in the article?• How can we describe the topics?

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Topic modeling - Assumption

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Topic modeling

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Korea

Music

Olympic

Topic proportion of each document

Topic modeling

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korea south korean kim lee

music album song single live

olympic summer medal gold winter

Word distribution of each topic

Korea

Music

Olympic


Topic modeling

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korea south korean kim lee

music album song single live

olympic summer medal gold winter

Word distribution of each topic

LDA

Korea

Music

Olympic


Topic modeling• Inputs

– Document corpus– Parameters

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• Models– LDA– HDP

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LDA




• Inferences– Gibbs sampling– Variational Inference

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LDA





• Outputs– Topics– Topic proportions

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LDA

MY RESEARCH – ONLINE LEARNING

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LDA

Documents size

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New documents

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Previous approach problem

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LDA


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LDA

My suggestion

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My suggestion

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LDA

My suggestion

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My suggestion

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LDA

My suggestion

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Results

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MY RESEARCH – COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE

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Computational Social Science• Computational approaches to the social sciences• Computers are used to model, simulate, and analyze

social phenomena• Fields

– Computational economics– Computational sociology– Computational psychology

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My research• Self-disclosure in Twitter conversation• Leadership in the AJD

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Leadership• A process of social influence in which a person can

enlist the aid and support of others in the accomplishment of a common task [Chemers. 2014]

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Leadership• A process of social influence in which a person can

enlist the aid and support of others in the accomplishment of a common task [Chemers. 2014]

• The ability to – Influence other people– Get them to do something significant

• Energizing people toward a goal [Mills. 2005]

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Leadership Styles [Lewin, et al. 1939]

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• Autocratic– Get little input from group members– Control over all decisions

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• Laissez-Faire– Give little guidance to group members– Leave them to decision-making

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• Laissez-Faire– Give little guidance to group members– Leave them to decision-making

• Democratic– Encourage group members to participate– Retain the final say in the decision-making

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Leadership Styles• Target people

– School children [Lewin, et al. 1939]

– Work employee [Hoel. 2010]

– USA president [Bligh, et al. 2004] & Prime minister [Kaarbo. 1997]

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• Relationships [Van. 2006]

– Age– Health– Context

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• Relationships [Van. 2006]

– Age– Health– Context

• How about the kings in the old times?

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Research Questions1. Do kings show different kinds of leadership styles?

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Research Questions1. Do kings show different kinds of leadership styles?2. What factors are related with kings’ leadership?

– Context/Topics?– Members?– Time?

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Dataset• What kinds of data are needed?

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Dataset• What kinds of data are needed?• Requirements: records of king’s official duty activities

– Discussions with government officials– King’s decisions– Long and large dataset

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Dataset• What kinds of data are needed?• Requirements: records of king’s official duty activities

– Discussions with government officials– King’s decisions– Long and large dataset

• My answer: The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty

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The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty• Series of books which describe about historical facts

in Joseon dynasty• 1,893 books, 380,271 articles• 472 years (1392 – 1863)

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The Joseon Dynasty• Ancient kingdom in Korean peninsula

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Civilization V - Civilization and Scenario Pack: Korea


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Civilization V - Civilization and Scenario Pack: Korea

Sejongthe Great


– From 1392 to 1897– 27 kings– Capital city: Seoul– Religion: Neo-Confucianism

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The Joseon Dynasty• Monarchial system

– King governs the nation– King decides on official issues– King discusses it with government officials

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2016-03-2072A screenshot of a historical drama - Yi san



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King

A screenshot of a historical drama - Yi san



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King

Government officials




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King

Government officials

historiographers


The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty• Contents

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– Human resources• Employment & Dismissal• Person information

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– Government issues• Military• Tax & Population

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– Diplomatic relations• China• Japan

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– Judgements• Punishment• Remission

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– Judgements• Punishment• Remission

– Observations• Astronomical phenomena• Weather

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The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty• National Institute of Korean History (http://www.history.go.kr)

– Translated it to modern Korean

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– Translated it to modern Korean– Tagged meta information

• Title• Category (political, economic, social and cultural)• Entity (person, location, nation)

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– Translated it to modern Korean– Tagged meta information

• Title• Category (political, economic, social and cultural)• Entity (person, location, nation)

– Published on the web• http://sillok.history.go.kr

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The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty

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Time


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TitleTime


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TitleTime

Body


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Title

Metainformation

Time

Body


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Combining two local districts


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Facts



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Facts

Official A



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Facts

Official A

“It’s reasonable to combine two local districts.”



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Facts

Official A

King




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Facts

Official A

King



“How should we handle this?”


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Facts

Official A

King

Official B

Official C





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Facts

Official A

King

Official B

Official CThe king follows

Official C’s suggestion.




Methodology• Identify relevant articles

– To avoid non-governmental affairs (e.g. observations)– Look at the kings words and decisions– 126K, 36% over all articles

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Methodology• Identify relevant articles

– To avoid non-governmental affairs (e.g. observations)– Look at the kings words and decisions– 126K, 36% over all articles

• Identify king’s final decisions in the article– Build sixty candidate verbs

• Order: 명하다, 命• Approve: 윤허하다, 允• Disapprove: 불허하다, 不允• Reject: 따르지않았다, 不從• Follow: 따르다, 從之

– Look at the verbs in king’s last sentence and title

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Ruling styles• Arbitrary Decision (AD)

• Discussion and Order (DO)

• Discussion and Follow (DF)

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– Like autocratic style– No discussion with officials– Orders directly

• Discussion and Order (DO)


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• Discussion and Order (DO)– Like democratic style– Discussion with officials– Orders, approves, or rejects at the end


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• Discussion and Order (DO)– Like democratic style– Discussion with officials– Orders, approves, or rejects at the end

• Discussion and Follow (DF)– Like laissez-faire style– Discussion with officials– Follows officials suggestion

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Ruling styles

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• Arbitrary Decision (AD) example

King

Facts

Ruling styles

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• Arbitrary Decision (AD) example

King

Facts

“Remove all fences at the gates”

Ruling styles

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• Discussion and Order (DO) example

Agency A

Official B

Official C

King

King

King

Ruling styles

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Agency A

Official B

Official C

King

King

King

“Please interrogate a suspect”

Ruling styles

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Agency A

Official B

Official C

King

King

King

“I don’t want to do that. Don’t ask me about that again”

“Please interrogate a suspect”

Ruling styles

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• Discussion and Follow (DF) example

Facts

Official A

King

Official B

Official CThe king follows

Official C’s suggestion.

Research Question 11. Do kings show different kinds of leadership styles?

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Results – Among kings

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• Each king shows different ruling style– Multinomial test between king’s ruling style distribution ( < 0.001)

Results – Among kings

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• Each king shows different ruling style– Multinomial test between king’s ruling style distribution ( < 0.001)

• Tyrants (Yeonsangun, Gwanghaegun) show high value of AD

Research Question 22. What factors are related with kings’ leadership?

– Context/Topics?– Members?– Time?

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Methodology• Discover topics in each article

– LDA [Blei et al. 2003] with 300 topics– LDA outputs a topic proportion for each article– LDA outputs a multinomial word distribution for each topic

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Methodology• Discover topics in each article

– LDA [Blei et al. 2003] with 300 topics– LDA outputs a topic proportion for each article– LDA outputs a multinomial word distribution for each topic

• Identify who said what– To analyze the participants in the discussion– Look at subjects and person tags in front of the sentence

of each quote– 20K people/agencies

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Results - TopicsRetirement Agriculture Remission Grants신하 곡물 죄 한필

은퇴 마을 법 한구획

지위 한구획 전하 하사

사람 창고 관여 안장

유능 사람 용서 한지역

일 쌀 찬성 한구역

의무 저장 반란 호필

직 흉년 사람 외피

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Investigate the effects o

Results - Topics

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Sejong the Great

Yeonsangun

Injo

Investigate the effects o )

• ResultsDifferent from overall( )

Results - Topics

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Sejong the Great

Yeonsangun

Injo

• Remission of sins topic– Kings act DO than overall– Injo tends to DF

Results - Topics

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Sejong the Great

Yeonsangun

Injo

• Remission of sins topic– Kings act DO than overall– Injo tends to DF

• Granting rewards topic– Sejong the Great acts DF– Yeonsangun acts arbitrarily– Injo tends to give grants to

servants than overall

Results - Topics

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Sejong the Great

Yeonsangun

Injo

Results - Members• Investigate the effects of the participants in a discussion

– Compute the mutual information among ruling styles

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– Compute the mutual information among ruling styles• Results

– Discussion and Order• Chief secretary• Local government officials

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– Compute the mutual information among ruling styles• Results

– Discussion and Order• Chief secretary• Local government officials

– Discussion and Follow• Central government officials• Crown prince• Agency officials who remonstrate to the king

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Results – Time

• Investigate the changes over time– Look at the temporal difference of a king

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Yeonsangun Injo

Results – Time

• Investigate the changes over time– Look at the temporal difference of a king

• Results– Yeonsangun becomes more arbitrary over time– Injo stays consistent in his ruling style

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Yeonsangun Injo

Conclusion• AIs are getting strong

– The singularity is near– Optimistic? Pessimistic?

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Conclusion• AIs are getting strong

– The singularity is near– Optimistic? Pessimistic?

• I am machine learning researcher– Making algorithms and models for specific problems– Analyzing (text) dataset– Helping to make ASI

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Reference• Chemers, M. (2014). An integrative theory of leadership. Psychology Press.• Mills, D. Q. (2005). Leadership: How to lead, how to live. MindEdge Press.• Lewin, K., Lippitt, R., & White, R. K. (1939). Patterns of aggressive behavior in

experimentally created “social climates”. The Journal of Social Psychology, 10(2), 269-299.

• Bligh, M. C., Kohles, J. C., & Meindl, J. R. (2004). Charting the language of leadership: a methodological investigation of President Bush and the crisis of 9/11. Journal of Applied Psychology, 89(3), 562.

• Hoel, H., Glasø, L., Hetland, J., Cooper, C. L., & Einarsen, S. (2010). Leadership styles as predictors of self-reported and observed workplace bullying. British Journal of Management, 21(2), 453-468.

• Kaarbo, J. (1997). Prime minister leadership styles in foreign policy decision-making: A framework for research. Political Psychology, 553-581.

• Blei, D. M., Ng, A. Y., & Jordan, M. I. (2003). Latent dirichlet allocation. the Journal of machine Learning research, 3, 993-1022.

• Van Vugt, M. (2006). Evolutionary origins of leadership and followership. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 10(4), 354-371.

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Reference• http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-

intelligence-revolution-1.html• http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-

intelligence-revolution-2.html• http://www.singularity.com

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Image sources• http://www.popsci.com/microsoft-makes-ai-easier• http://kevinbinz.com/tag/machine-learning/• http://onhech.blogspot.com/2013/10/laissez-faire-

leadership-is-less-more.html• http://www.imbc.com/broad/tv/drama/isan/preview/16

73111_23417.html• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseon• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Peninsula• http://store.steampowered.com/app/99612• http://sillok.history.go.kr• http://sillok.history.go.kr/viewer/viewtype1.jsp?id=kda_

10103027_005

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Thank you!Any questions or comments?

JinYeong [email protected]

U&I Lab, KAIST

20160320 workshop seoul

Self Improvement