2017 congressional landscape - aabe€¦ · 2017 congressional update presented by: donald r....
TRANSCRIPT
2017 Congressional Update
Presented by:Donald R. Cravins, Jr
SVP for Policy/ED Washington [email protected]
@dcravins
Senate Majority Leadership
1. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)Position: Senate Majority Leader
2. John Cornyn (R-TX)Position: Senate Majority Whip
3. John Thune (R-S.D.) Position: Senate Republican Conference Chairman 4. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.)
Position: Senate Republican Policy Committee Chairman
5. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) Position: Senate Republican Conference vice chairman
6. Cory Gardner (R-CO)Position: National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman
3
Senate Majority Leadership
1. Charles “Chuck” Schumer (D-NY)Position: Senate Minority Leader
2. Dick Durbin (D-IL)Position: Senate Democratic Whip
3. Patty Murray (D-WA)Position: Assistant Democratic Leader
4. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)Position: Chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee
9 Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)Position: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman
5. Elizabeth Warren(D-MA)Position: Vice Chair of the Democratic Conference
6. Mark Warner (D-VA)Position: Vice Chair of the Democratic Conference
7. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)Position: Chair of Steering Committee
8. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)Position: Chair of Outreach
Senate Majority Leadership
4
Senate Minority Leadership
House Majority Leadership
1. Paul Ryan(WI-1)Position: Speaker of the House
2. Kevin McCarthy (CA-23)Position: House Majority Leader
3. Steve Scalise (LA-1 )Position: House Republican Whip
4. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) Position: Republican Conference Vice Chair
6. Steve Stivers (OH-15)Position: National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman
5. Luke Messer (IN-6)Position: Republican Policy Committee Chairman
5
House Majority Leadership
REPUBLICAN FACTIONS
Opposing factions in the Republican Party threaten to impede its ability to form a majority in the House
If Dems maintain unity, GOP can only lose 22 votes
May 30, 2017 | Daniel Stublen
Republicans 239
Tuesday Group ~52
Freedom Caucus ~30
Democrats 193
Vacancies 3
Sources: National Journal Research, 2017.
Whip stats (four vacancies)• Republicans hold a 46-seat lead• A majority requires 217 votes (if all members cast a ballot)
More conservative caucuses
Freedom Caucus (~30 members)• Farthest-right group of Republicans• Chair, Mark Meadows (R-NC11)
House Liberty Caucus (~35 members)• Libertarian wing of the Republican party• Chair, Justin Amash (R-MI03)
Republican Study Committee (~170 members)• Strong conservatives, limited spending and traditional values• Chair, Mark Walker (R-NC06)
Moderate caucuses
Tuesday Group (~50 members)• Moderate fiscal conservatism and more socially liberal• Co-chairs, Charlie Dent (R-PA15), Elise Stefanik (R-NY21)
• Tom MacArthur (R-NJ03) recently resigned as co-chair after the contentious AHCA vote
Republican Main Street Partnership (65 representatives, 4 senators)• More centrist, attempts to form bipartisan initiatives• Chair, Amory “Amo” Houghton (R-NY29, retired)
Freedom Caucus Moderate Republicans Tuesday Group
VacanciesMajority line
1. Nancy Pelosi (CA-12)Position: House Democratic Leader
2. Steny Hoyer (MD-5)Position: House Democratic Whip
3. James Clyburn (SC-6) Position: Assistant Democratic Leader
4. Joseph Crowley (NY-14) Position: House Democratic Caucus Chairman
House Majority Leadership
7
House Minority Leadership
Congressional Black Caucus Leadership
1. Cedric Richmond (LA-2)Position: Chairman
2. Andre Carson (IN-7)Position: Vice Chairman
3. Karen Bass (CA- 37)Position: Vice Chairman
4. Brenda Lawrence (MI -14)Position: Secretary
5. Gwen Moore (WI-4)Position: Whip
8
Congressional Black Caucus Leadership
Freedom CaucusProgressive Caucus
HOUSE CAUCUSES
Moderates in the House form a strong majority over each party’s farthest wings
House makeup by caucus membership
June 5, 2017 | Daniel Stublen
House Republican Conference 239
Freedom Caucus 30*
Tuesday Group 50*
Republican Study Committee 170*
Republican Main Street Partnership 65*
House Democratic Caucus 193
Blue Dog Coalition 17
New Democrat Coalition 61
Progressive Caucus 70
Vacancies 3
*Estimated caucus size; rosters have not been finalized and published for the 115th Congress. The House Freedom Caucus does not publish its member list.Sources: National Journal Research, 2017.
Moderate RepublicansModerate Democrats
Tuesday GroupBlue Dog Coalition
Vacancies
70
106
1750
30
159Whip stats • Republicans hold a 46-seat lead• A majority requires 217 votes (if all
members cast a ballot)• If Republicans lose all Freedom Caucus
votes, they require 7 centrist Democratic votes to form a majority
Presidential Approval Ratings
45%43%
41% 40%42% 43% 42%
37%
40%
43%40%
40%
30%
40%
50%
60%
President Trump’s Approval Ratings, Jan. 20th - present
Gallup: June 5
-11-2 -8
2
-6
-54
-18 -26
-54
-8
-63
-175
-150
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
0
1946 1954 1982 20021994
SENATE HOUSE SENATE HOUSE HOUSE SENATE HOUSESENATE
Gain or loss for president’s party in first midterm of presidency:
61% Approve
33% Approve 42% Approve
63% Approve
48% Approve
HOUSE
Gallup
SENATE HOUSE
45% Approve
2010
SENATE
Since the Civil War, President’s party has lost seats in 36 of 39 midterms -losing an average of 33 seats
Since 1914, President’s party has lost Senate seats in 20 out of 25 midterm elections
Presidential Approval Ratings
2016 Presidential Election
12
7
556
3
4
6
11
3
9
5
38
3
3
5
6
7
6
10
6
10
8
10
20
16
11 18
1696
118
29
9
15
135
20
29
4
3
4
MA 12
RI 4
CT 7
NJ 15
DE 3
MD 10
DC 3
VT 3
NH 4
Clinton: 232 EVs (States) Trump: 306 EVs (States)
1
Clinton beat Trump by nearly 7M votes in CA, MA & NY (65-35% margin). In the other
47 states (plus DC), Trump received 4M more votes (winning 52% - 48%).
County Breakdown
1519 1526
674 583
875
693468
15821587
2439 2536
2238
2420
2600
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
29
43
7378
70
69
88 86 88
71
57
27 2230
31
12 14 120
25
50
75
100
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
All Counties 100 Largest Counties
8th consecutive Presidential Election within 10 points
Uncompetitive CountiesCounties where presidential candidates won the two-party popular vote by more than 20 percentage points:
Cook Political Report
In 1992, 1,096 counties were decided by single-digit margins. In 2016, only 303
counties had close margins.
Along the Acela Corridor and Pacific Coast, Democrats hold a 98-33 House Seat
advantage over Republicans. In the other 40 states, Republicans hold 208 seats to
Democrats’ 96.
In these same 40 states, Donald Trump won 306 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 80.
Landslides EverywhereShare of U.S. voters living in counties where either major-party candidate won by a margin of:
Cook Political Report
The number of “extreme landslide” counties – those in which one presidential candidate won by more than 50 percentage points –
rose from 93 in 1992 to 1,196 in 2016
Single Party Representation
Data provided by Smart Politics
The last time Congress had 15 states represented by only one political party in
both chambers was 1957
23 12
405
35
405
34 49
352
83
352
Partisan Divide
Republicans in Clinton districts
Democrats in Trump districts
111th Congress: 2009 115th Congress: 2017
Districts split between Congressional representation and presidential preference:
Republicans in Obama districts
Democrats in McCain districts
Only 1 Dem (Collin Peterson) remains
from a McCain dist.
First time in 100+ years that percentage of split districts has been in single digits in
consecutive elections
16%
29%
38%41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1994 2004 2014 2016
17%21%
43% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1994 2004 2014 2016
Pew Research Center | 2016
55%58%
View the opposing party “very unfavorably” & as a “threat to the nation’s well being”:
Partisan Politics
41% of Dems view Republican policies as a threat. More than 1/2 of Dems (55%) say
the Republican Party makes them “afraid.”
45% of Republicans view Dem policies as a threat. 58% of Republicans have a very unfavorable impression of the Dem Party.
Presidential/Senate Vote
Daily Kos Elections
Every state with a 2016 Senate race voted for the same party in both the Senate and
presidential contest – a first ever
2018 Senate Map
25 Democrats* 9 Republicans
WA
CANV
AZ
MT
MO
PAIN
NY
HI
WI
OH
FL
MI
MN
UT
WY
TX
TN
MS
NE
NM
WVVA
MAVT*
CT
MD
DE
ME*
RI
NJ
ND
3.9 20.5
1.0 35.8
15.5 19.1
12.8 1.2
5.5 18.9
5.6 0.8
5.2 8.1
8.9 0.7
Most Democratic seats in 50 years
19.9 0.3
AL24 41.7
194241
House
Democrats gained net +61/3 House Dems come from 3 states:
California, Massachusetts & New York
32 Seats 42 Seats
10 Highly Vulnerable MOCs 10 Highly Vulnerable MOCs
2 Vulnerable MOCs 11 Vulnerable MOCs
15 Potentially Vulnerable MOCs 12 Potentially Vulnerable MOCs
5 Open Seats 8 Open Seats
2018 Landscape: House
25
10337
11
Likely RepublicanLean RepublicanToss upLean DemocratLikely Democrat
Six 2018 House races
are already considered ‘toss ups’
Crist (FL-13)Schneider (IL-10)
Bustos (IL-17)Loebsack (IA-2)
Peterson (MN-7)Kuster (NH-2)Suozzi (NY-3)
Maloney (NY-18)Schrader (OR-5)
Cartwright (PA-17)Kind (WI-3)
O’Halleran (AZ-1)Bera (CA-7)
Carbajal (CA-24)Murphy (FL-7)Nolan (MN-8)Kihuen (NV-40
Gottheimer (NJ-5)
Issa (CA-49)Price (GA-6)
Comstock (VA-10)Shea-Porter (NH-1)
Rosen (NV-3)Walz (MN-1)*
Denham (CA-10)Knight (CA-25)Coffman (CO-6)Curbelo (FL-26)
Blum (IA-1)Lewis (MN-2)Bacon (NE-2)Faso (NY-19)
Fitzpatrick (PA-8)Hurd (TX-23)
McSally (AZ-2)Valadao (CA-21)Royce (CA-39)
Walters (CA-45)Rohrbacher (CA-48)Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27)
Roskam (IL-60Bost (IL-12)Young (IA-3)Yoder (KS-3)
Poliquin (ME-2)Trott (MI-11)
Paulsen (MN-3)
Zinke (MT-AL)Lance (NJ-7)
Frelinghuysen (NJ-11)
Tenney (NY-22)Katko (NY-24)
Renacci (OH-16)*Costello (PA-6)Meehan (PA-7)
Smucker (PA-16)Culberson (TX-7)Sessions (TX-32)Reichert (WA-8)
Circled districts have special elections in 2017;Special elections not listed:• KS-4• CA-34• SC-5
*Not seeking reelectionDemocrats need to pick up 24 seats to win the House
Excludes all seats marked as ‘Solid Democrat’ or ‘Solid Republican’
Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to win the House.
Cook Political Report
Special Elections
CA
MT
KS
GA
SC
General Election: May 25Greg Gianforte elected
General Election: June 6Jimmy Gomez elected
General Election: June 20Dem Jon Ossoff 48.1%
General Election: June 20Xavier Becerra
Mike Pompeo -CIA
General Election: April 11Ron Estes elected 52.5%
Ryan Zinke - Interior
Tom Price - Health
Mick Mulvaney - OMB
How well the president’s party’s candidate does in the special election depends on the president’s popularity at the moment the
election was held.
QUESTIONS?
• Remember, this is one of several touches, not the only meeting with your Member for the year.
• An effective advocacy organization will correspond with congressional members and staff on a routine basis about legislation affecting their issue areas, but also will remain in steady contact, regardless of whether an immediate issue exists.
• Let the Member or Staffer know that you expect another touch/meeting in August
• FEEDBACK, FEEDBACK, FEEDBACK• NULWB will reach out to for feedback from every meeting• Need you to get into the habit of providing feedback after any and all meetings
with Members/staff