2018 Fall Enrollment Update

Sean Tierney, Associate Commissioner for Policy and Research

October 11, 2018

Overview

Big Picture: What are postsecondary enrollment trends in Indiana?

Context: How does enrollment relate to Indiana’s population and the economy?

Enrollment Trends

Fall Census

• The Fall Census tells us the total number of students at each public institution

• Later in the year, we collect more detailed information

– This lets us identify individuals and follow more nuanced trends

2018 Census Data Changes

• The Fall Census no longer includes dual credit students

– Early in the school year, colleges rely on high schools to report dual credit enrollments.

– These data are not always available in time, which led to inconsistent results.

– The more detailed collections later in the cycle will continue to collect dual credit information.

• Structural changes at PFW and Ivy Tech

– Some IPFW health programs shifted to IU

Total Fall Enrollment (Headcount)

In Fall 2018…

260,521 degree-seeking students enrolled in Indiana public postsecondary education in Indiana (-1.2%)

o 220,194 undergraduates (-1.6%)

By Sector:o 194,504 at 4-year publics (-0.4%)

o 154,177 undergraduates (-0.8%)

o 66,017 at 2-year publics (-3.4%)

() = 1 year % change, Fall 2017-Fall 2018

Short-Term Context…

-11%

-31%

-2%

5 Year Change

292,983

260,521

197,855 194,504

95,128

66,017

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018

All Publics

Public 4 Year

Public 2 Year

…Longer-Term Context

-11%

-31%

-2%

5 Year Change

260,554

292,983

260,521

189,513197,855 194,504

71,04195,128

66,017

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

Fall2010

Fall2011

Fall2012

Fall2013

Fall2014

Fall2015

Fall2016

Fall2017

Fall2018

All Publics

Public 4 Year

Public 2 Year

11 Year Change

0.0%

+3%

-7%

July Unemployment & Fall Enrollment

4.5%

7.6%

3.4%

10.6%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

Fall2010

Fall2011

Fall2012

Fall2013

Fall2014

Fall2015

Fall2016

Fall2017

Fall2018

All Publics

Public 4 Year

Public 2 Year

IN Unemployment Rate

July Unemployment & Fall Enrollment (Scaled to 2018 Baseline)

3.4

4.4

5.4

6.4

7.4

8.4

9.4

10.4

11.4

66,017

71,017

76,017

81,017

86,017

91,017

96,017

101,017

106,017

111,017

116,017

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

Fall2010

Fall2011

Fall2012

Fall2013

Fall2014

Fall2015

Fall2016

Fall2017

Fall2018

Public 2 Year

IN Unemployment Rate

National Trend

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Fall1990

Fall1991

Fall1992

Fall1993

Fall1994

Fall1995

Fall1996

Fall1997

Fall1998

Fall1999

Fall2000

Fall2001

Fall2002

Fall2003

Fall2004

Fall2005

Fall2006

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

Fall2010

Fall2011

Fall2012

Fall2013

Fall2014

Fall2015

Fall2016

Source: U.S. Department of Education Data Digest; U.S. ED “After the Post-9/11 GI Bill”

Great Recession Begins

First Millennials Reach College Age

13.8 M

19.8 M21.0 M

1990 Recession Begins

2001 Recession Begins

Post 9/11 GI Bill goes into effect; veteran enrollment increases faster than overall enrollment

Fall Enrollment (Headcount)by FT/PT Status

At 2-year PublicsAt 4-year Publics

Data in pie charts for fall 2017

TREND:1-yr change in full-time: + 0.3 % pts5-yr change in full-time: + 1.0 % pts

TREND:1-yr change in full-time: + 0.1 % pts5-yr change in full-time: - 4.5 % pts

Full-Time 80%

Part-Time20% Full-Time

37%

Part-Time 63%

Fall Enrollment (Headcount) by Residency Status

At 2-year PublicsAt 4-year Publics

Data in pie charts for fall 2018

TREND:1-yr change in resident: -0.8 % pts5-yr change in resident: - 4.9 % pts

TREND:1-yr change in resident: -1.2 % pts5-yr change in resident: - 0.8 % pts

Resident, 67%

Non-Resident, 32%

Non-Resident Reciprocity,

2%

Resident, 92.8%

Non-Resident, 5.4%

Non-Resident (Reciprocity), 1.8%

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Purdue Polytechnic

IU Kokomo

IU East

IU Northwest

IU Southeast

IU South Bend

Vincennes University

PFW

USI

Purdue Northwest

ISU

Ball State

IUPUI

IU Bloomington

Purdue West Lafayette

Ivy Tech

Non-Resident Resident

Degree-Seeking Enrollment by Institution

59,813

42,956

42,937

28,71021,075

12,289

9,091

8,827

7,731

6,204

5,082

4,945

3,747

3,196

2,898

Total Fall Enrollment by System/Campus

IU System 91,515

Ivy Tech 59,813

PU System 60,798

BSU 21,075

ISU 12,289

USI 8,827

VU 6,204

1,020

Change in Headcount

1 YR CHANGE 5 YR CHANGE(Fall 2017-18) (Fall 2013-18)

-30.9%

-28.5%

-27.1%

-25.4%

-22.0%

-19.9%

-16.0%

-11.1%

-8.7%

-2.0%

-1.4%

0.4%

0.9%

3.4%

4.8%

5.8%

12.0%

Ivy Tech

IU Northwest

Vincennes University

Purdue Northwest

IPFW

IU Southeast

IU South Bend

Statewide

USI

IUPUI

IU East

Indiana State University

IU Kokomo

IU Bloomington

Ball State

Purdue Polytechnic

Purdue West Lafayette

-8.2%

-5.0%

-5.0%

-4.6%

-3.8%

-3.7%

-3.4%

-2.9%

-2.5%

-1.9%

-1.2%

-0.5%

-0.4%

-0.3%

0.9%

2.3%

4.6%

Vincennes University

IPFW

Indiana State University

Purdue Northwest

Purdue Polytechnic

IU Northwest

IU South Bend

Ivy Tech

IU Southeast

Ball State

Statewide

IU Bloomington

USI

IUPUI

IU Kokomo

IU East

Purdue West Lafayette

72,204

195,394

91,331

212,746

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Public 2 Year Public 4 Year

Fall Census Fiscal Year

Fall Census As Early FY Predictor

Degree Seeking Students: Fall 2016 and FY 2017

FY/Fall Ratio: 1.3

FY/Fall Ratio: 1.1

Big Goal and Enrollment Trends

• Recent declining enrollments could pose future challenges with degree production and attainment.

• Enrollment trends for certain demographic groups show some potential future challenges and opportunities for closing attainment gaps.