2018 new year’s briefing - markit5 kg 2,5 kg 7,5 kg 6,5 kg 0 kg tesla model s cathode type: nca...

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

6-7 February 2018 | Frankfurt, Germany

Christian Müller, Principal Analyst & Manager

0049 (69) 20973 328, [email protected]

2018

New Year’s Briefing

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 2

Performance

Cost

Production Capacity

Raw Material

Availability

Energy Density

Safety

Durability

Price

Recharging

InfrastructureDriving Range

Factors Affecting Our Perception of EV and Battery Technology


Battery packBattery module

Battery cell

Prismatic

Source: CATL– photo taken by IHS Markit at IAA

2017, Frankfurt, Germany, September 2017

Cylindrical Pouch

Setting the scene - battery pack breakdown


Expecta

tion

Time

Name Voltage (V) Energy (Wh/kg) Cycle life

Lead acid 2.0 50 500

Ni-MH 1.2 100 1,000

Li-ion 3.6 200 2,000

Li-solid state 4.8 400 +10,000

1891

First commercialization

in electrification

1982

1998

2022?

All figures are simplified to easily compare technologies

Li-solid state

Li-sulfur

Ni-MHLead acid

Mg-ion

Na-air

Li-ionLi-air

Source: IHS Markit

Lithium based battery technology continues to offer the highest potential


More energy and power, and safer

Li-ion Battery System Technology Roadmap

5

202520202017

Cathode

Anode

Electrolyte

Separator

LFP, LMO, NMC, NCARich Nickel

(High voltage spinell)

Carbon, Graphite

Liquid, Polymer

Polymer mebranes

Silicon Lithium-metal, CNT

Solid state

None

Sulfur, Air


Electrode Material

NMC seems to offer the most accepted compromise between all requirements

Acronym MaterialCell voltage

Leadingsupplier

NCA Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum oxide

3.65 V TeslaPanasonic

NMC Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt oxide

3.7 V LGSamsung

LFP Lithium Iron Phosphate 3.2-3.3 V CATLBYDLishen

LTO Lithium Titanate Oxide 2.4 V Toshiba

LMO Lithium Manganese Oxide (original li-ion technology)

4 V AESC

Low cost

Life

SafetyCharge /

discharge rate

Specific energy(kWh/kg)

Characteristics of electrode materials

NCA NMC LFP LMO LTO

6

• Except LTO, these are cathode materials. The anode is usually

graphite.

• NCA is used only by Tesla, on license from Panasonic

• LTO and LMO are loosing significance in the automotive market

• LCO is the original Lithium Ion technology but no longer used


Major Raw Material use for selected models

Nickel Lithium Cobalt Manganese Aluminium

17,5 Kg 3,2 Kg 4,3 Kg 0,5 Kg 0,5 Kg

Nickel Lithium Cobalt Manganese Aluminium

7,5 Kg 2,5 Kg 7,5 Kg 6,5 Kg 0 Kg

Tesla Model S

Cathode Type: NCA

Chevrolet Bolt

Cathode Type: NMC

Tons of Material used per year


Major Raw Material Deposits for BatteriesWhich countries are OEMs exposing themselves to?

Lithium

Cobalt

Nickel

Manganese


Securing raw material suppliesWill Material Hedging Solve this Problem?

“Manufacturers such as electric vehicle

makers should be concerned that the supply

of one of the key mineral components, or the

processing and refining infrastructure, could

become too centralised in a single country.

Without diverse source options, the

possibility of supply restriction becomes

more likely.”

Ben McLellan, senior research fellow at Kyoto University

“The procurement project is one of the

largest in the history of the automotive

industry, with a total order volume of over 50

billion euros,” it said in a statement. “That will

meet the Group’s needs for the first wave of

e-mobility.”

Volkswagen Statement

“They want a fixed price, which won’t work for

people who need security and they want to

reserve the right to not take metal they don’t

need,” another cobalt source said. “They want

producers to take all the risks ... they want an

option at low prices, for long maturities at zero

cost.”

Tesla Motors and BMW is also said

to be looking for supplies of cobalt,

according to people in the market,

though no formal tenders have been

issued.

“A secure and sustainable

supply of raw materials for the

Li-ion [lithium ion] battery will

be the key factor to become e-

mobility market leader,”

Volkswagen Statement

Cobalt Trader


Cylindrical Prismatic Pouch

Electrodes rolled/winded flat winded stacked

Packaging stainless steel can aluminium (for automotive) casing,

welded shut.

flexible aluminium+plastic foil (may swell

during charge/discharge).

Pros & Cons + self-supporting mechanical structure

- lower energy density (kWh/cm³)

+ energy density, specific energy

- thermal management

- cost

+ high specific energy (kWh/kg)

+ cost

- needs a rigid support from the module.

Leading auto

suppliers

Tesla & Panasonic BYD, Samsung SDI,

CATL

LG

SK Innovation

Often used for NCA (since Panasonic is the main manufacturer) high voltage LFP and low voltage

all chemistries

Lithium polymer with solid electrolyte

Form factor standardized (somehwat)• 18650: Ø18x65 mm, most widespread: laptops, ebikes,

previously used Tesla

• 26650: often used for LFP

• 2170(0): Ø21x70 mm, new Tesla format

no standard, but usually fixed to a few sizes for a given

supplier

no standard, usually custom size

Cell Technology optionsPouch cells gaining ground thanks to Korean manufacturers

10


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

GW

h

Unknown Cylinder Pouch Prismatic

Capacity demand by cell type

Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit

Battery Demand by Cell Type

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Mil

lio

n u

nit

s (

pa

ck

)

Unknown Cylinder Pouch Prismatic

Vehicle production volume

Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit


Profiles of major battery manufacturersA diverse supply base

Manufacturer Tesla Panasonic LG Chem Samsung SDI CATL Lishen Guoxan

High Tech

BYD OptimumNano

Cells NCA

cylindrical

LMO

cylindrical

NCM

pouch

NCM

prismatic

LFP and NCM

prismatic

LFP

cylindrical &

prismatic

LFP & NMC LFP

prismatic &

pouch

LFP

cylindrical

Core

business

EV consumer and

pro appliances

diversified diversified batteries batteries electrical

equipment

EV batteries

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

GWh

2016 2020


Mapping the Announced Major Battery Cell Manufacturing Locations

13

1

38

0

20

40

60

2016 2020

GWh North America

Others

LG Chemical

Panasonic

0

23

0

20

40

60

2016 2020

GWh Europe

Others

Samsung SDI

LG Chemical

SK Innovation

Terra E

Northvolt

68

334

0

100

200

300

400

2016 2020

GWh China

Others

Tianjin Lishen

Guoxuan

OptimumNano

30

54

0

20

40

60

2016 2020

GWh Japan, Korea

Others

Samsung SDI

LG Chemical

AESC

Panasonic


CellCell

supplier

Source: IHS Markit

Module Pack Electric Vehicle OEM

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles,

Geely, Guangzhou

Do-Fluoride, Wanxiang A123/Fisker, BYD

Volkswagen, Renault, BMW, Tesla,

General Motors, Daimler, Hyundai (Browns battery, Accumotive, Mobis)

Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, LG Chemical, Tianjin Lishen, Optimumnano,

Farasis, Guoxuan, Sinopoly, Electrovaya, Chuangyuan

Lifan, (Nissan)

PEVE, AESC, LEJ, BEJ, Pride Power,

HLGP, BESK, Shanghai Jiexin, Wuhu Qida

Industry Disruptors: Dyson, Hyperdrive

Innovation, Webasto

Battery supply chain in automotive industry


Key Take Aways For Suppliers

• Carmakers are still very much in experimental

mode (large scale but experimental) about batteries

and EVs.

• Battery pack assembly done more in house

• Raw material availability concentrated around few

difficult locations

• Battery cell production capacity increase needed to

sustain projected growth rates

15

now

NimH Li+ LiS?

Japan S. Korea

China

Evolution of automotive battery landscape

IHS Markit Customer Care

[email protected]

Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273)

Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300

Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600

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