2018: retail channel blueberry performance...blueberries were the #5 frozen fruit and vegetable...
TRANSCRIPT
2018: Retail Channel Blueberry PerformancePrepared for:
March 7, 2019
Contents
Methodology page 3
Reading Key page 4
Executive Summary page 5
Fresh Fruits & Vegetables page 10
Fresh Berries page 19
Frozen Fruits & Vegetables page 36
Frozen Berries page 45
Appendix page 60
2
Methodology
Data Source: Nielsen U.S. ScanGeographies: Total U.S. x AOCDate(s): Calendar Years
2015: 52-weeks ending 01/02/16 2016: 52-weeks ending 12/31/16 2017: 52-weeks ending 12/30/17 2018: 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fresh and Frozen “Fruits and Vegetables” differ from Nielsen definition of Total Produce and Total Frozen department. This way we can make like comparisons across fruit and vegetable categories in both departments.Terms:
CAGR = compound annual growth ratePounds=Volume=EQ: These are terms used interchangably throughout this presentation to reference the weight of an item(s) sold at retail.
3
How to Read This Presentation*
All retail sales numbers are Total U.S. unless specified otherwise
Purple in charts and graphs signifies All Berries/Total Berries
Green in charts and graphs signifies organic
Blue in charts and graphs signifies blueberries
Red in charts and graphs signifies strawberries
Darker color shades indicate reference to dollars
Lighter color shades indicate a reference to volume
*Some exceptions to this convention exist. Please pay careful attention when reviewing.
4
Executive Summary: fresh
5
Key Findings Perspective
Fresh blueberries gained +$139 million in 2018. By contrast the second biggest growth in actual dollars was raspberries at $48 million and strawberries gained nearly $43 million.
Fresh blueberries gained +9.3% in dollars versus the previous year. Fresh blueberries produced the highest year over year percentage dollar growth of any of the top 15 fresh fruit & vegetable categories.
Fresh blueberries have consistently produced dollar gains dating back to 2016.
The CAGR since 2016 is +8.2%. By contrast strawberry CAGR has been +2.3%.
Fresh blueberries have consistently produced volume gains dating back to 2016.
The CAGR since 2016 is +6.5%. By contrast strawberry CAGR has been +1.8%.
Executive Summary: fresh
6
Key Findings Perspective
Per capita consumption of fresh blueberries increased +4.4% vs. year ago.
Americans consume about 1.1 pounds of blueberries annually (purchased in the retail channel).
Organic sales across all berry segments combined were up +12.6%. Organic sales for all fresh fruits and vegetables were up +8.6%.Fresh berries gained a nearly 45% higher growth rate.
Fresh organic blueberries grew +33.7% in dollars. Fresh conventional blueberries grew +5.7% in 2018.
Fresh blueberries gained nearly +18 million pounds. About +8 million in conventional and +10 million in organic.
Fresh organic blueberries were responsible for more than half of all blueberry volume gains over the previous year.
Executive Summary: fresh
7
Key Findings Perspective
Fresh organic blueberries gained almost 3 points of blueberry dollar share.
Organic 12.8 share in 2017; rose to 15.7 share in 2018. Fresh organic share gains do not appear to be as a result of cannibalization of conventional sales.
Organic blueberries’ pricing slipped the last two years declining -9.4% in 2018
During that same two-year period organic strawberries’ pricing increased +4.6%.
18 oz., 6oz., and 11oz. ranked #1, #2, #3 in pack sizes selling. The top 3 blueberry pack sizes captured 85.7% of dollars and 83.6% of blueberry volume in 2018.
Executive Summary: frozen
8
Key Findings Perspective
Frozen blueberries produced $231 million in 2018. Blueberries were the #5 frozen fruit and vegetable segment…and the #1 frozen fruit segment.
Frozen blueberries were nearly flat (-0.2%) in dollars. Mixed Fruit made relatively large gains at +9.6%.
Frozen blueberries were up (+5.6%) in volume. Frozen blueberries percentage volume growth was higher than any other berry segment.
Frozen blueberries sold nearly 69 million pounds. They were #3 in volume behind strawberries and mixed fruit.
Executive Summary: frozen
9
Key Findings Perspective
Frozen blueberry per capita consumption is 0.21 lbs. per year through the retail channel.
Per capita consumption of frozen blueberries is about the same as strawberries, and increased +4.7% vs. year ago.
Organic blueberries grew +18.4% or +1.3 million pounds in volume in 2018.
This compared to conventional growth of +4.0% or +2.3 million pounds. Organic blueberries’ 16.0 share in 2017; rose to 17.7 share in 2018.
Conventional and organic prices have trended down since 2016, -6.0% and -6.8% respectively in 2018.
This downward trend is true for strawberries, raspberries and blackberries as well.
FRESH FRUITS & VEGETABLES
10
Fresh Fruits and Veg Trends
Dollars
+ 2.0%
Volume (EQ)
-0.1%
$59.9 billion in 2018
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/1811
Fresh Fruits and Trends: organics
+ 8.6%
$5.5 billion in 2018
12 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 dollars
13
Chg. vs. 2017 +1.6% -3.2% +2.4% +2.4% -1.0% -3.2% +1.6% +5.3% +3.0% +5.6% -4.2% +9.3% +0.4% +5.9% +0.5%
Blueberries had the highest year over year percentage dollar growth of any of the top fruit and vegetable categories.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries exhibit relatively consistent year over year growth versus the top dollar generators.
Since 2016, Blueberries have been a top 3 percentage growth category.
Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 dollars
14 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/28/18
Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 volume
15
Chg. vs. 2017 -2.4% -3.0% +1.6% -3.6% +1.5% -1.4% -2.1% +1.7% +5.9% +0.2% +0.8% +18.3% -4.5% -9.8% -1.1%
Only strawberries made the top 15 fruit and vegetable categories; blueberries were #26 in volume with 362M pounds sold in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 volume
16
Strawberries are the only berry segment in the top 15 volume generators, coming in at number 10.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fruits: fresh - top 15 dollars
17
Chg. vs. 2017 -3.2% -1.0% -3.2% +1.6% +5.3% +5.6% +9.3% +0.4% +5.7% +6.0% -14.2% +6.7% -3.7% -0.2% +3.4%
Blueberries were the #7 top-selling fruit in 2018, with higher percentage growth than raspberries or strawberries.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fruits: fresh - top 15 volume
18
Chg. vs. 2017 -2.4% +1.6% -3.6% -2.1% +5.9% +0.2% +18.3% -1.1% +2.8% -7.4% +12.1% +5.2% +0.7% +12.3% 0.0%
Up 5.2%, blueberries had the 5th highest percentage volume growth of any fresh fruit.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
FRESH BERRIES
19
Blueberries percentage dollar growth was double that of the berry category and 50% higher than raspberries.
All Berries: fresh - 2018
20
2018
Berries Dollars Dollars % Chg Dollar Share Volume Lbs Volume Lbs % Chg Volume Lbs Share
STRAWBERRIES $2,691,229,006 +1.6% 45.8% 1,042,325,166 +0.2% 63.7%
BLUEBERRIES $1,636,405,902 +9.3% 27.9% 361,967,083 +5.2% 22.1%
RASPBERRIES $842,152,266 +6.0% 14.3% 105,907,501 +2.9% 6.5%
BLACKBERRIES $529,103,074 +4.5% 9.0% 88,615,384 +3.1% 5.4%
A/0 BERRIES $122,725,616 +4.9% 2.1% 21,187,635 +14.3% 1.3%
CRANBERRIES $48,588,673 -1.3% 0.8% 17,533,896 -1.8% 1.1%
ALL BERRIES $5,870,204,537 +4.6% 100.0% 1,637,536,665 +1.7% 100.0%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries generated more than 3 times the growth of strawberries in actual dollars in 2018 versus the previous year.
Blueberries gained +$139 million in 2018.
All Berries: fresh – dollars by year
21 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
65% of berry category volume growth was generated by blueberries in 2018.
Year over year strawberries were flat.
All Berries: fresh – volume by year
22 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
All Berries: fresh - pricing
23
Blueberries experienced the highest percentage price increase versus the previous year at +3.9%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Per capita consumption of fresh blueberries increased 4.4% vs. year ago.
All Berries: fresh - per capita consumption
*Per capita figures are calculated using volume sales and U.S. census data, thus only provide a directional measure of consumption
24
Consumption 2017 2018 % Chg
ALL BERRIES 4.94 lbs. 4.99 lbs. +1.1%
STRAWBERRIES 3.19 lbs. 3.18 lbs. -0.5%
BLUEBERRIES 1.05 lbs. 1.10 lbs. +4.4%
RASPBERRIES 0.32 lbs. 0.32 lbs. +2.3%
BLACKBERRIES 0.26 lbs. 0.27 lbs. +2.4%
A/O BERRIES 0.06 lbs. 0.06 lbs. +12.0%
CRANBERRIES 0.05 lbs. 0.05 lbs. -2.4%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: fresh - share
25
Dollar Sales 2015 2016 2017 2018
BLUEBERRIES $1.29B $1.39B $1.50B $1.64B
TOTAL BERRIES $5.11B $5.47B $5.61B $5.87B
Blueberry contribution to both total berries and total fruits and vegetables has increased steadily
Dollar Sales 2015 2016 2017 2018
BLUEBERRIES $1.29B $1.39B $1.50B $1.64B
TOTAL FRUITS/VEG $56.58B $58.35B $58.73B $59.88B
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
All Berries: fresh – organic – dollars & volume
26
Organic berry growth outpaced total organic fruits and vegetables in dollars by nearly 45%, up +12.6%
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +5.0% +0.3% +3.4%
ORGANIC +27.7% +21.9% +12.6%
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +2.3% +2.4% +1.1%
ORGANIC +30.0% +18.2% +10.4%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/28/18
All Berries: fresh - volume - organic
2018
27
Organic blueberries grew nearly +48% in volume in 2018.
Organic blueberries were responsible for more than half of all blueberry volume gains over the previous year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: fresh – organic – dollars & volume
28
Organic blueberries have had steady growth in recent years with 2018 volume growth at almost 50%.
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +5.3% +5.1% +5.7%
ORGANIC +37.3% +26.8% +33.7%
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +8.4% +3.5% +2.5%
ORGANIC +36.9% +30.0% +47.7%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: fresh – organic share
29
Organic blueberries gained almost 3 points of blueberry dollar share.
Organic share gains do not appear to be as a result of cannibalization of conventional sales.
Dollars 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL $1,305,286,261 $1,379,437,720
ORGANIC $192,130,487 $256,968,182
Volume 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL 323,216,925 331,159,959
ORGANIC 20,863,324 30,870,124
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: fresh – pricing by organic
30
Conventional blueberry prices edged up +3.2% versus last year.
Organic blueberries’ pricing slipped the last two years declining -9.4% in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: fresh - pack size
31
The top 3 blueberry pack sizes captured 85.7% of dollars and 83.6% of blueberry volume in 2018.
2018 2018
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: fresh - pack size
32
18 oz. and 11 oz. pack sizes generated the greatest actual dollar gains versus the previous year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: fresh - pack size
33
Relatively small pack sizes deliver the highest retail dollars per pound
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
FROZEN FRUITS & VEGETABLES
34
Frozen Fruits & Veg Trends
Dollars
+ 4.1%
Volume (EQ)
+3.3%
$5.9 billion in 2018
35 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
89.9%
10.1%
Dollar Share
Conventional Organic
Frozen Fruits & Veg Trends: organics
+ 12.3%
$320 million in 2018
36 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 dollars
37
Blueberries were the top-selling frozen berry in 2018.
Chg. vs. 2017 +3.5% +5.4% +3.9% 0.0% -0.2% -1.8% +9.6% +35.6% -0.2% -2.0% -0.9% -2.6% +2.9% +4.0% -2.4%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 dollars
38
Blueberries rank number 5 in dollars amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.
Strawberries rank number 10 in dollars amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 volume
39
Frozen blueberry volume was up nearly 6% vs. 2017.
Chg. vs. 2017 +3.6% +3.3% +2.7% -0.4% -1.5% 0.0% +0.3% +12.0% +5.6% +25.8% -3.5% +2.8% +5.0% -3.5% +2.3%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 volume
40
Blueberries rank number 9 in volume amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.
Strawberries rank number 7 in volume amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fruits: frozen - top 15 dollars
41
Blueberries were the top-selling frozen fruit in dollar sales for 2018, and berries accounted for four of the top 6 categories.
Chg. vs. 2017 -0.2% +9.6% -2.0% -0.9% +2.7% -5.2% +5.8% -2.0% -1.8% -4.8% +13.1% +138.2% -19.1% +26.7% +9.3%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Fruits: frozen - top 15 dollars
42
While blueberries were #1 in dollars sold in 2018, they were #3 in volume.
Chg. vs. 2017 +0.3% +12.0% +5.6% +2.8% +3.2% +3.8% -1.1% +12.9% +2.5% -3.4% +10.0% -23.4% +4.5% +147.9% -1.1%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
FROZEN BERRIES
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All Berries: frozen
44
2018
Berries Dollars Dollars % Chg Dollar Share Volume Lbs Volume Lbs % Chg Volume Lbs Share
BLUEBERRIES $230,582,572 -0.2% 35.1% 68,880,279 +5.6% 33.4%
STRAWBERRIES $195,652,045 -2.0% 29.8% 72,904,902 +0.3% 35.4%
A/O BERRIES $174,039,365 -0.9% 26.5% 50,558,116 +2.8% 247.5%
RASPBERRIES $41,040,992 -5.2% 6.2% 9,240,834 +2.5% 4.5%
BLACKBERRIES $13,400,744 -4.8% 2.0% 3,912,748 -3.4% 1.9%
CRANBERRIES $2,654,342 +9.3% 0.4% 685,459 +4.5% 0.3%
ALL BERRIES $657,370,060 -1.3% 100.0% 206,182,388 +2.7% 100.0%
Frozen blueberries dollar sales were flat versus 2017.
Frozen blueberries percentage volume growth was higher than any other berry.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
All Berries: frozen – dollars
45
Blueberries outperformed the other berry segments (cranberries excluded) in year over year percentage change in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries outperformed the other berry segments in year over year percentage and actual growth in 2018.
Blueberries generated +17.9 million additional pounds in 2018.
All Berries: frozen – volume
46 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Per capita consumption of frozen blueberries is about the same as strawberries, and increased +4.7% vs. year ago.
All Berries: frozen – per capita consumption
*Per capita figures are calculated using volume sales and U.S. census data, thus only provide a directional measure of consumption
47
Consumption 2017 2018 % Chg
ALL BERRIES 0.62 lbs. 0.63 lbs. 2.0%
STRAWBERRIES 0.22 lbs. 0.22 lbs. -0.3%
BLUEBERRIES 0.20 lbs. 0.21 lbs. 4.7%
A/O BERRIES 0.15 lbs. 0.15 lbs. 2.2%
RASPBERRIES 0.03 lbs. 0.03 lbs. 1.8%
BLACKBERRIES 0.01 lbs. 0.01 lbs. -4.2%
CRANBERRIES 0.00 lbs. 0.00 lbs. 3.7%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
All Berries: frozen - organic
48
Conventional dollars decreased slightly, while organics increased +9.0% in dollars.
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL -0.7% -7.2% -3.2%
ORGANIC +13.5% +0.5% +9.0%
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +0.3% -5.0% +1.3%
ORGANIC +20.9% +1.0% +14.3%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
All Berries: frozen - volume - organic
49
Organic blueberries grew +18.4% in volume in 2018.
2018
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: frozen - organic
50
Both conventional and organic frozen berries experienced volume growth in 2018.
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL -0.2% -5.8% -2.2%
ORGANIC +11.8% +3.7% +10.4%
Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL +1.4% -2.0% +4.0%
ORGANIC +19.3% +6.8% +18.4%
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: frozen – organic share
51
Organic blueberries dollar growth failed to offset the dollar declines in conventional blueberries.
Volume for conventional and organic blueberries gained ground.
Dollars 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL $193,948,155 $189,714,422
ORGANIC $37,005,771 $40,868,151
Volume 2017 2018
CONVENTIONAL 58,232,330 60,577,163
ORGANIC 7,014,723 8,303,115
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: frozen – pack size
52
The top 3 blueberry pack sizes captured 63.6% of dollars and 64.3% of blueberry volume in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: frozen – pack size
53
40 oz., 64 oz. and 8 oz. sizes generated the greatest dollar and volume gains versus the previous year.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: frozen – pack size
54
Relatively smaller pack sizes like 10oz. And 8 oz. generated the highest price per pound.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
All Berries: frozen - pricing
55
Blueberries pricing has trended down over the last four years. That downward trend is increasing. Volume gains have not offset the pricing declines, leading to fewer dollars to the segment in 2018.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: frozen – pricing by organic
56
Conventional and organic prices have trended down since 2016.
Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
58
APPENDIX
All Berries: fresh – pricing by organic
59 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: fresh - pack size
60 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
Blueberries: frozen – pack size
61 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18
All Berries: frozen – pricing by organic
62 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18