WATFORD & DISTRICT U3A

PROCEEDINGS OF THE SCIENCE

INTEREST STUDY GROUP

2018

2

1 5 J A N P o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h a n d g l o b a l s u s t a i n a b i l i t y b y S t e v e B o w n .

D r B o w n i s a T r u s t e e o f t h e c h a r i t y

‘ P o p u l a t i o n M a t t e r s ( P M ) , t h e a i m o f

w h i c h i s t o r a i s e a w a r e n e s s o f t h e e v e r

i n c r e a s i n g p r o b l e m s o f t o o m a n y

p e o p l e i n t h e w o r l d . A f e w o f h i s s l i d e s

i s p r o b a b l y t h e b e s t w a y t o i l l u s t r a t e

h i s s t o r y

P o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h

“ A n i m a l s ” t h e e a r t h h a s t o

s u p p o r t . T h e f o r e c a s t

p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s u g g e s t s

w e w i l l n e e d t w o E a r t h s i n a f e w

c e n t u r i e s t i m e !

W h o k n o w s h o w t h e s e b a r r i e r s w i l l

b e o v e r c o m e ?

S t e v e g a v e u s a r e a l l y f a s c i n a t i n g

a n d t h o u g h t p r o v o k i n g

p r e s e n t a t i o n b a c k e d u p w i t h t o p

l e v e l s t a t i s t i c s a n d r e s e a r c h . I f

o n l y s o m e o f t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r s

w o u l d l i s t e n .

M a u r i c e C r e w e

7,550,000,000

Every second: 4.17 new births. 1.80 deaths

16 billion

10 billion

6 billion

Projections

for 2050

Increasing by 83 million per year (the same as in 1981)

CURRENT WORLD POPULATION:

3

U s e a n d Ab u s e o f D r u g s i n S p o r t ; P a u l E n g l a n d ( S t A l b a n s U 3 A )

S u c c e s s a t t h e h i g h e s t l e v e l s o f s p o r t i s d e t e r m i n e d b y g e n e t i c s ,

e n v i r o n m e n t , p s y c h o l o g y a n d t r a i n i n g . H o w e v e r , d r u g s c a n g i v e a n

a d d i t i o n a l e d g e t o p e r f o r m a n c e i n s p o r t , a n d g i v e n t h a t i n m a n y s p o r t s t h e

d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n w i n n i n g a n d b e i n g s e c o n d c a n b e l e s s t h a n 0 . 1 % , t h e

t e m p t a t i o n t o u s e d r u g s i s v e r y h i g h . U s e o f d r u g s i s n o t r i s k - f r e e

t h o u g h , a n d s i d e e f f e c t s a r e l o n g - l a s t i n g a n d c a n b e a s s e r i o u s a s d e a t h .

C o n t r o l o f d r u g u s a g e i n m o s t s p o r t s i s g o v e r n e d b y t h e W o r l d A n t i -

D o p i n g A g e n c y , w h o d e c i d e o n w h i c h d r u g s a r e b a n n e d a n d h o w t h e

s y s t e m o f d r u g t e s t i n g o p e r a t e s . H o w e v e r , d e l e g a t i o n o f m u c h t e s t i n g t o

i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s h a s a l l o w e d R u s s i a , f o r e x a m p l e , t o s y s t e m a t i c a l l y

e v a d e a n t i - d r u g m e a s u r e s .

B a n n e d d r u g s c a n b e g r o u p e d d e p e n d i n g i n w h a t t y p e o f e v e n t t h e y a r e

m o s t e f f e c t i v e . T h o s e w h i c h i n c r e a s e r e d b l o o d c e l l n u m b e r a n d t h e

p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e c a r d i o v a s c u l a r s y s t e m a r e m o s t u s e d i n e n d u r a n c e

e v e n t s s u c h a s t h e m a r a t h o n a n d m u l t i - d a y c y c l e r a c e s . D r u g s w h i c h

i n c r e a s e m u s c l e m a s s a r e u s e d i n s p o r t s w h i c h r e q u i r e s t r e n g t h ,

e s p e c i a l l y i n s h o r t b u r s t s , s u c h a s s p r i n t i n g , w e i g h t - l i f t i n g a n d t h r o w i n g .

T h e r e a r e a l s o a r a n g e o f d r u g s w h i c h a f f e c t t h e b r a i n , b o t h t o e n h a n c e

p e r f o r m a n c e b u t a l s o t o c o n t r o l p a i n , s i n c e t h e l a t t e r i s a s e r i o u s p r o b l e m

i n m a n y s p o r t s .

1 6 A p r i l T h e h i s t o r y o f p h o t o g r a p h y . T r e v o r F o u l k e s a n d A u d r e y G y n n e .

T h e f i r s t k n o w n o c c a s i o n w h e n m o t h e r a n d s o n h a v e b e e n j o i n t p r e s e n t e r s

o f a U 3 A t a l k .

4

T h e l e c t u r e s t a r t e d o f f w i t h t h e v e r y e a r l y d e v e l o p m e n t o f p h o t o g r a p h i c

t e c h n i q u e s f r o m 1 7 1 7 a n d t h e s c i e n c e

b e h i n d h o w t h i s w a s d o n e . I t t h e n

w e n t o n t o e x p l a i n h o w t h i s w a s

e x p a n d e d t o c o v e r c o l o u r a n d m o v i n g

p i c t u r e s o n a t i m e l i n e o f h o w

p h o t o g r a p h i c t e c h n i q u e s c h a n g e d a n d

i m p r o v e d o v e r t h e y e a r s . E x p l a n a t i o n s

w e r e g i v e n i n t o t h e d e s i g n o f a

m o d e r n c a m e r a l e n s t o o v e r c o m e

p r o b l e m s w i t h c o l o u r a n d s p h e r i c a l

a b e r r a t i o n . T h e n t h e l e c t u r e e x p l a i n e d

h o w a d i g i t a l c a m e r a w o r k s a n d t h e n h o w t o m a k e

s i m p l e i m p r o v e m e n t s t o d i g i t a l l y c a p t u r e d i m a g e s ,

u s i n g , f o r e x a m p l e , A d o b e P h o t o s h o p E l e m e n t s

1 0 . F o l l o w i n g t h e l e c t u r e t h e r e w a s d e b a t e a b o u t

c o l o u r p r i n t a l i g n m e n t a n d c o l o u r m a t c h i n g f o r

t e l e v i s i o n i n t h e 1 9 6 0 s / 7 0 s . T h a n k s t o T r e v o r f o r

t h e s u m m a r y o f a p a r t i c u l a r l y f a s c i n a t i n g

p r e s e n t a t i o n t h a t i n c l u d e d s c i e n c e , t e c h n o l o g y ,

h i s t o r y a n d a r t . W h o c o u l d w i s h f o r m o r e .

M a u r i c e

National Trust Visit to Lacock

On Wednesday 18th April some members of the Science Interest Group were able to visit Lacock Abbey and the Fox Talbot Museum with the Watford and District Association of the National Trust.

On what could only be called a beautiful summer day we had nearly a 3 hour coach trip, (including comfort stop), to near the far side of Wiltshire.

The village of Lacock still looks much as it did 100 - 200 years ago (but on the day plus residents cars). It would be recognised by viewers of several films and TV programmes that have used it for backgrounds in

the past. Inside the Abbey a notice indicated the window used by Henry Fox Talbot as one of his earliest successful photographs. What would he have thought of digital cameras one can only guess. Although being an inventor with broad interests and an enquiring scientific mind I expect he would have been an enthusiast. A super day out.

5

M o n 1 9 M A R B r u n e l ' s a t m o s p h e r i c r a i l w a y . B y N o r m a n P a r k y n s

A t t h e s t a r t o f t h e p u b l i c

r a i l w a y s e r v i c e i n t h i s

c o u n t r y , i t w a s b y n o m e a n s

c e r t a i n t h a t s t e a m w o u l d

d e f i n i t e l y b e t h e m o t i v e f o r c e .

T h e u s e o f a t m o s p h e r i c

p r e s s u r e t o d r a w t r a i n s a l o n g

s e e m e d t o h a v e m a n y a d v a n t a g e s .

A f t e r t h e f i r s t p r a c t i c a b l e s y s t e m

w a s w o r k e d o u t a n d g i v e n s u c c e s s f u l

t r i a l s i n W e s t L o n d o n , i t w a s t a k e n u p

b y a n I r i s h c o m p a n y i n D u b l i n . T h e

s u c c e s s o f t h i s s h o r t l i n e d r e w a l o t

o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l a t t e n t i o n a n d m a n y o f

t h e l e a d i n g U K e n g i n e e r s g a v e i t

c l o s e i n s p e c t i o n . E x p e r t o p i n i o n w a s

h o w e v e r d i v i d e d b u t I s a m b a r d K i n g d o m B r u n e l

a m o n g s t o t h e r s w a s s u f f i c i e n t l y c o n v i n c e d b y i t s

p o t e n t i a l t h a t h e i n s t a l l e d a s t r e t c h i n h i s n e w

S o u t h D e v o n R a i l w a y . M o s t o f t h e t e c h n i c a l p r o b l e m s w e r e n e a r l y s o l v e d

b u t n o t g o o d e n o u g h f o r a r e l i a b l e r e g u l a r s e r v i c e . B r u n e l ’ s p r o b l e m w a s

t h a t h e h a d u n d e r e s t i m a t e d t h e p o w e r r e q u i r e d ; a n u n u s u a l m i s t a k e f o r

t h e m a n r a t e d t h e t o p e n g i n e e r i n t h e c o u n t r y . U l t i m a t e l y h e

r e c o m m e n d e d t o t h e d i r e c t o r s t h a t t h e y r e l y o n G W R s t e a m e n g i n e s .

N o r m a n ’ s e x c e l l e n t p r e s e n t a t i o n c o v e r e d a l l a s p e c t s o f a t r a n s p o r t s y s t e m

s t i l l b e i n g e x p e r i m e n t e d w i t h i n s o m e p a r t s o f t h e w o r l d .

M a u r i c e C r e w e

CRISPR/Cas9 Gene Editing By Colin Richards

MAY’S science talk was about the latest developments in gene editing. This technique allows scientists to change an organism’s DNA – its genetic code – quickly, cheaply and easily. Genes can be switched off, faulty material can be replaced, or new genetic material can be added.

CRISPR/Cas9 is the name of this new technique. CRISPR (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats) is a part of a bacteria’s DNA which is a “vaccination card” against known viruses that may attack. Cas9 is a protein which attacks the viral DNA using RNA generated from the CRISPR.

The final piece of the technique was discovered as recently as 2011 by two teams working under Jennifer Doudna in Berkeley, University of California and Emmanuel Charpentier at the Laboratory for

F i g 2 B r u n e l ' s

S o u t h D e v o n

r a i l w a y

F i g 3 H o w t h e s y s t e m

w o r k e d

F i g 1 S u r v i v i n g

e x a m p l e i n a

m u s e u m

6

Molecular Infection Medicine in Sweden. They were doing fundamental research into the anti-viral immune system of a bacteria, Streptococcus pyogenes. This organism causes sore throats in humans but can sometimes cause more serious lethal soft tissue infections accompanied by multi-organ failure. They discovered a new form of RNA, made by the bacteria, that guides the Cas9 protein to a specific sequence in the intruding viral DNA where it cuts it.

The position of the cut was very precise and the teams immediately realised that the Cas9 protein was a cutting device which biochemists could easily program with synthesised RNA. They published their findings in June 2012. If DNA is cut, the cell tries to repair it. This is usually unsuccessful and disables the gene where the cut was made. This is useful for research into how specific genes work. Researchers also found that they could package sections of DNA with the Cas9 protein. They could then cut the original (perhaps faulty) DNA, remove a section and replace it with a new version. They had a quick, cheap and simple “word processor” for genes. This tool was so simple to use that it was immediately adopted by genetic researchers around the world and it has caused a revolution in genetic engineering. Applications range from basic genetic research, to medicine, biology and biotechnology.

One future medical application is looking for a cure for human sickle cell disease. This causes malformed blood cells which can clump together, causing pain and organ damage. It is caused by a mutation of just one base pair, of the roughly 3 billion pairs in our genetic code. CRISPR/Cas9 allows us to correct this mutation in DNA very easily. The next problem researchers are working on is the best way to reintroduce the corrected DNA [continued p.5]

[Science Interest Gene editing continued from p4] into the bodies sufferers. Safe reintroduction is the next big hurdle to overcome.

Recent studies have shown that humans can have an immune response to Cas9 originating from certain organisms. At best, this would block the reintroduction of new DNA, at worst it might trigger a possibly fatal attack on the body’s own tissues. If safe delivery systems can be developed for humans, there may be future cures for genetic diseases like cystic fibrosis, beta thalassemia and Huntington’s disease. Meanwhile engineering of plant, animal and bacterial genes goes on apace. One new development is that of gene drives and similar technologies. A gene drive can force a genetic change through a population by ensuring that ALL offspring have the modified gene. Extreme proposals using this technique have included wiping out pest species such as mosquitos or rats by using a gene drive that forces them to have only male offspring. Clearly, genetic engineering raises many ethical issues, including:

Should we now see the genome as an infinitely editable piece of software? How should we minimise inherited “mistakes”? Is it acceptable to change embryos to eliminate genetic diseases? If genes are patented, who should have access to gene therapy and at what price? Should we exterminate entire species?

The dual-use of similar breakthroughs has led to the application of benignly intended research in e.g. virology & bacteriology, but also offensive biological weapons programmes. What controls are needed?

A lot to think about...........

Diagram-The National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute

7

J u n e . T h e H i s t o r y o f A v i a t i o n B a s e d o n a l i f e t i m e o f i n t e r e s t i n t h e s u b j e c t

M a u r i c e C r e w e s u m m a r i z e d T h e H i s t o r y o f A v i a t i o n .

S t a r t i n g f r o m I c a r u s w h o f a i l e d t o t a k e n o t e

o f t h e p r e - f l i g h t b r i e f i n g a n d s o m i s s e d t h e

p o s t f l i g h t i n q u i r y , M a u r i c e w e n t o n t o

e a r l y C h i n e s e k i t e s a n d t h e n t h e i d e a s o f

L e o n a r d o a n d o t h e r s i n t h e 1 5 t h a n d 1 6 t h

c e n t u r i e s – n o n e o f w h i c h f l e w . W i t h

m a n y i l l u s t r a t i o n s h e m e n t i o n e d t h e e a r l y h o t a i r b a l l o o n s o f t h e 1 8 t h c e n t u r y ,

t h e V i c t o r i a n g l i d e r s a n d a i r s h i p s a n d o f c o u r s e t h e p i o n e e r i n g a c t i v i t i e s o f t h e

W r i g h t b r o t h e r s i n t h e e a r l y 2 0 t h c e n t u r y . U n s u r p r i s i n g l y t h e r e w e r e m a j o r

t e c h n i c a l a d v a n c e s d u r i n g t h e F i r s t W o r l d W a r l e a d i n g

t o i n c r e a s i n g i n t e r e s t i n

f l y i n g d u r i n g t h e 1 9 2 0 s a n d

3 0 s w i t h e x c i t i n g r a c e s

h i t t i n g t h e h e a d l i n e s . T h e

S e c o n d W o r l d W a r s a w

a i r c r a f t f l y i n g t w i c e a s f a s t

a n d t w i c e a s h i g h . T h e n t h e j e t e n g i n e p i o n e e r e d b y

S i r F r a n k W h i t t l e l e d t o e v e n m o r e d r a m a t i c c h a n g e s e v e n t u a l l y t r a n s f o r m i n g

i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a v e l f o r t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c . W h e t h e r o r

n o t i t i s c o u n t e d a s a v i a t i o n , s p a c e t r a v e l m a y b e f l y i n g

a s a r a t h e r s p e c i a l i s e d

p u r s u i t .

R e p o r t f r o m o u r s p e c i a l

c o r r e s p o n d e n t .

1 6 J U L 2 0 1 8

T h e S c i e n c e a n d A r t o f a V e t e r i n a r y C o n s u l t a t i o n b y

W a n d a F o u l k e s

T h i s m o n t h W a n d a F o u l k e s , w h o u s e d t o b e a s m a l l a n i m a l

v e t , g a v e a p r e s e n t a t i o n o n t h e s c i e n c e a n d a r t o f a

v e t e r i n a r y c o n s u l t a t i o n . T h e p r e s e n t a t i o n w a s

c o m p r e h e n s i v e l y i l l u s t r a t e d w i t h p h o t o s o f t h e f a m i l y p e t s

a n d , i n o n e c a s e , a m e m b e r o f t h e a u d i e n c e . S h e b r i e f l y

t a l k e d a b o u t h e r t r a i n i n g t o b e a v e t a n d t h e b a s i c

u n d e r l y i n g s t r u c t u r e o f a v e t e r i n a r y c o n s u l t a t i o n . S h e t h e n

w e n t o n t o d i s c u s s t h e s c i e n c e b e h i n d v a r i o u s c a s e s t h a t

s h e h a d s e e n i n h e r c o n s u l t i n g r o o m a n d h o w t h e “ A r t ” w a s

b r i n g i n g t o g e t h e r t h e h i s t o r y , c l i n i c a l e x a m i n a t i o n a n d

e x p e r i e n c e t o g e t h e r t o f o r m a d i a g n o s i s a n d t r e a t m e n t p l a n i n t e n m i n u t e s .

S h e t h e n w e n t o n t o c o n s i d e r l e v e l s o f p h y s i c a l p r o t e c t i o n n e e d e d i n

v e t e r i n a r y p r a c t i c e a n d s o m e h u m a n t r e a t m e n t s a n d t r e a t s w h i c h a r e

p o i s o n o u s t o a n i m a l s . S h e t h e n w e n t o n t o e x p l o r e t h e s c i e n c e b e h i n d t w o

e x a m p l e s o f m i s t a k e s s h e h a d o b s e r v e d i n g e n e r a l p r a c t i c e . S h e f i n i s h e d w i t h

a n a m u s i n g c a s e w h e n a n o w n e r i n s i s t e d t h a t t h e i r d o g h a d g r o w n t w o n e w

8

e a r s w h i c h t u r n e d o u t t o b e c l u m p s o f f u r . S h e a l s o e x p l a i n e d s o m e o f t h e

p u z z l e s o f h e r e d i t y .

T h e s e s s i o n s f i n i s h e d w i t h a n e x t e n d e d q u e s t i o n a n d a n s w e r s e s s i o n s h o w i n g

h o w f a s c i n a t i n g t h e a u d i e n c e f o u n d t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n .

9

A u g u s t A S e c o n d A g e o f E n l i g h t e n m e n t ? - B r i t i s h d o m e s t i c e l e c t r i c

s u p p l y u p t o n a t i o n a l i s a t i o n B y T o n y S t a n f o r d

E l e c t r i c i t y r e a l l y e n t e r e d t h e h u m a n c o n s c i o u s n e s s i n t h e

1 8 t h c e n t u r y , b u t m o r e f o r e n t e r t a i n m e n t t h a t a n y t h i n g

e l s e . B y t h e e a r l y y e a r s o f t h e 1 9 t h c e n t u r y s o m e b a s i c

c o n c e p t s w e r e u n d e r s t o o d , e a r l y b a t t e r i e s , m o t o r s ,

g e n e r a t o r s e t c . h a d b e e n d e v e l o p e d i n t h e l a b b u t n o

c o m m e r c i a l e x p l o i t a t i o n .

A s t h e c e n t u r y p r o g r e s s e d v a r i o u s w e a l t h y a m a t e u r s a n d

i n v e n t o r s e x p e r i m e n t e d t o a c h i e v e a

w o r k i n g ( i . e . b r i g h t a n d l o n g - l a s t i n g ) l i g h t

b u l b - s e e n a s t h e “ k i l l e r a p p ” . A l l c a m e t o g e t h e r a t

C r a g s i d e c 1 8 8 0 , f i r s t p r a c t i c a l l i g h t b u l b , f i r s t h o m e l i t b y

e l e c t r i c i t y . J o s e p h S w a n n o t E d i s o n t h e i n v e n t o r b u t

E d i s o n b o u g h t t h e p a t e n t s a n d c o m m e r c i a l l y e x p l o i t e d t h e m

– f i r s t p o w e r 1 8 8 1 / 2 .

L e g i s l a t i o n i n U K g a v e c o n t r o l t o L A s .

H e n c e l o t s o f l o c a l g e n e r a t o r s / s u p p l i e r s ,

w i t h n o n a t i o n a l s t a n d a r d s .

! 8 8 0 s s a w m a n y t e c h n i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t s , s t e a m t u r b i n e s ,

t r a n s f o r m e r s , t h e ‘ b a t t l e ’ b e t w e e n D C & A C s u p p l y

s y s t e m s . A C w o n t e c h n i c a l l y b u t m a n y D C s u p p l i e s

r e m a i n e d , e s p e c i a l l y i n U K .

E a r l y u s e w a s o f t e n i n p u b l i c a r e a s , t h e a t r e s , s t r e e t

l i g h t i n g , t r a m s , e t c r a t h e r t h a n h o m e s . V a r i o u s a p p l i a n c e s

d e v e l o p e d b u t n o t m u c h t a k e n u p .

B y 1 9 0 5 9 0 % o f U K h o u s e h o l d s c o u l d h a v e h a d d o m e s t i c s u p p l y b u t o n l y

5 % d i d ! T o o e x p e n s i v e c o m p a r e d t o g a s . O n e s h i n i n g e x c e p t i o n – N E S C O .

W W 1 s a w i n c r e a s e i n i n d u s t r i a l d e m a n d a n d r e a l i s a t i o n t h a t s o m e s o r t o f

n a t i o n a l s y s t e m w a s n e e d e d . I n i t i a l l y n a t i o n a l i s a t i o n ( w i t h r a i l w a y s )

p r o p o s e d b u t o n l y a Q u a n g o e m e r g e d . F i n a l l y , i n m i d 2 0 s b o t h a n a t i o n a l

s t a n d a r d a n d s t a r t o f a N a t i o n a l G r i d .

! 9 3 0 s s a w i n c r e a s i n g t a k e u p o f e l e c t r i c i t y , a n d s o m e p r o g r e s s i n g e t t i n g

u s a l l o n a s i n g l e s t a n d a r d . R a d i o p r o b a b l y h e l p e d .

B y 1 9 3 9 p o w e r s u p p l y w a s i n a m u c h b e t t e r p o s i t i o n a n d c o p e d w e l l w i t h

w a r d e s p i t e m u c h i n c r e a s e d d e m a n d ( a n d e n e m y a c t i o n ) . B u t a f t e r

w a r l a c k o f m a i n t e n a n c e , m o n e y a n d t h e w i n t e r o f 1 9 4 7 a l l c a u g h t

u p w i t h i t a n d b l a c k o u t s c o m m o n . A t s a m e t i m e n a t i o n a l i s a t i o n

w a s b a c k o n t h e t a b l e a n d w i t h 1 9 4 7 A c t i t h a p p e n e d - t h e C E G B

a n d 1 3 A r e a b o a r d s .

F i n a l l y d o n ’ t f o r g e t t h e p l u g – t h e a r r i v a l o f t h e s q u a r e 3 - p i n .

1 0

D e s p i t e s o m e p r o b l e m s w i t h t h e s o u n d s y s t e m t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n w a s

f a s c i n a t i n g a n d e n j o y e d b y m o s t . T h a n k s t o t h e s p e a k e r f o r t h i s

s u m m a r y . M a u r i c e C r e w e

A r a b l e c r o p d i s e a s e c o n t r o l , c l i m a t e c h a n g e a n d f o o d s e c u r i t y

By Prof. Bruce Fitt, of the School of Life & Medical Sciences, University of Hertfordshire.

B a s e d o n U n i v e r s i t y a n d R H S r e s e a r c h P r o f F i t t e x p l a i n e d

h o w c r o p d i s e a s e s c a u s e y i e l d l o s s e s , y e t c r o p

p r o d u c t i v i t y n e e d s t o i n c r e a s e b y > 7 0 % o v e r t h e n e x t 3 5

y e a r s t o a c c o m m o d a t e p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h a n d c h a n g i n g

d i e t a r y p r e f e r e n c e s . C r o p p l a n t s a n d p a t h o g e n s i n t e r a c t i n

r e s p o n s e t o c h a n g e s i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s . T h e r e

h a s b e e n l i t t l e w o r k t o s t u d y i t s c o m b i n e d e f f e c t s o n c r o p -

d i s e a s e i n t e r a c t i o n s t o g u i d e s t r a t e g i e s f o r a d a p t a t i o n t o

c l i m a t e c h a n g e . F o r e x a m p l e , i t m a y t a k e 1 0 - 1 5 y e a r s t o

d e v e l o p a n e w f u n g i c i d e a n d i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o i d e n t i f y

f u t u r e t a r g e t d i s e a s e s n o w . A s e x a m p l e s , t h e i m p a c t o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e o n

U K e p i d e m i c s o f p h o m a s t e m c a n k e r o n w i n t e r o i l s e e d r a p e a n d f u s a r i u m

e a r b l i g h t o n w i n t e r w h e a t i s i n v e s t i g a t e d b y c o m b i n i n g w e a t h e r - b a s e d

d i s e a s e m o d e l s , c r o p g r o w t h m o d e l s a n d s i m u l a t e d w e a t h e r f o r d i f f e r e n t

c l i m a t e c h a n g e s c e n a r i o s . I t i s p r e d i c t e d t h a t c l i m a t e c h a n g e w i l l i n c r e a s e

t h e r i s k o f o i l s e e d r a p e p h o m a s t e m c a n k e r a n d w h e a t f u s a r i u m e a r b l i g h t

e p i d e m i c s . S u c h p r e d i c t i o n s i l l u s t r a t e i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e o n

c o m p l e x p l a n t - d i s e a s e i n t e r a c t i o n s i n a g r i c u l t u r a l a n d n a t u r a l

e c o s y s t e m s . T h e y c a n b e u s e d t o g u i d e g o v e r n m e n t a n d i n d u s t r y

p l a n n i n g f o r a d a p t a t i o n t o e f f e c t s o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e o n c r o p s t o e n s u r e

f u t u r e f o o d s e c u r i t y . O i l s e e d r a p e p r o d u c t i o n i n C h i n a i s t h r e a t e n e d b y

t h e p o s s i b l e a r r i v a l o f L e p t o s p h a e r i a m a c u l a n s , a m o r e v i r u l e n t c a u s a l

a g e n t o f p h o m a s t e m c a n k e r t h a n t h e e x i s t i n g s p e c i e s L e p t o s p h a e r i a

b i g l o b o s a . H o w e v e r , t o m i t i g a t e c l i m a t e c h a n g e , t h e c r o p s m u s t b e g r o w n

i n s u c h a w a y a s t o m i n i m i s e g r e e n h o u s e g a s e m i s s i o n s ( G H G ) a n d

o p t i m i s e i n p u t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i r p r o d u c t i o n . A s e x a m p l e s , i t i s

e s t i m a t e d t h a t U K p r o d u c t i o n o f w i n t e r o i l s e e d r a p e a n d w i n t e r b a r l e y i s

a s s o c i a t e d , r e s p e c t i v e l y , w i t h G H G o f

3 3 0 0 a n d 2 6 1 7 k g C O 2 e q . h a - 1 o f c r o p ,

w i t h > 7 0 % o f t h e G H G a s s o c i a t e d w i t h

t h e u s e o f n i t r o g e n f e r t i l i s e r .

F u r t h e r m o r e , i t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t c o n t r o l

o f d i s e a s e s b y u s e o f f u n g i c i d e s i n U K

o i l s e e d r a p e a n d b a r l e y i s a s s o c i a t e d ,

r e s p e c t i v e l y , w i t h d e c r e a s e s i n G H G o f

1 0 0 a n d 5 0 k g C O 2 e q . t - 1 o f s e e d .

T h e s e r e s u l t s d e m o n s t r a t e h o w d i s e a s e

1 1

c o n t r o l i n a r a b l e c r o p s c a n m a k e a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o b o t h c l i m a t e c h a n g e

m i t i g a t i o n a n d s u s t a i n a b l e a r a b l e c r o p p r o d u c t i o n .

A t h o u g h t p r o v o k i n g a n d f a s c i n a t i n g i n s i g h t i n t o a c o m p l i c a t e d p r o b l e m

w i t h e x t e n s i v e i l l u s t r a t i o n s a n d a t o u c h o f t h e c h i c k e n a n d e g g

c o n u n d r u m .

M a u r i c e C r e w e

I n O c t o b e r R o b e r t C a r n a g h a n g a v e a t a l k a b o u t H u m a n d i v e r s i t y :

r a m i f i c a t i o n s a n d c o n s e q u e n c e s ( a n d f a l l a c i e s )

H u m a n s a r e v e r y d i v e r s e .

A c c o r d i n g t o t h e b i o l o g i s t

A r m a n d L e r o i , w e a r e t h e

m o s t v i s i b l y d i v e r s e

s p e c i e s o f m a m m a l ,

p e r h a p s a n i m a l , o n E a r t h .

I t i s n o t o n l y b o d i l y b u t a l s o m e n t a l l y t h a t w e d i f f e r .

W h e n w e a r e b o r n , o u r b r a i n s a r e n o t " b l a n k s l a t e s " b u t a r e a l r e a d y

d i f f e r e n t j u s t a s o u r b o d i e s a r e .

H u m a n e v o l u t i o n d i d n o t s t o p 1 0 , 0 0 0 o r m o r e y e a r s a g o , a s h a s b e e n

s u p p o s e d , b u t c o n t i n u e d a n d r e s u l t e d i n m o r e d i f f e r e n c e s .

E n v i r o n m e n t a n d g e n e s b o t h a f f e c t u s , u s u a l l y i n c o m b i n a t i o n .

E n v i r o n m e n t h a s a s i g n i f i c a n t a n d s o m e t i m e s d o m i n a n t e f f e c t . O n t h e

o t h e r h a n d , r e s e a r c h o v e r d e c a d e s o n t h o u s a n d s o f t w i n s h a s i d e n t i f i e d

f e a t u r e s f o r w h i c h g e n e t i c i n h e r i t a n c e i s m o r e i m p o r t a n t , s u c h a s h e i g h t

a n d i n t e l l i g e n c e .

M a n y h u m a n d i f f e r e n c e s a r e l i n k e d s o t h a t s o m e a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h

o t h e r s . T h e r e i s m u c h e v i d e n c e f o r v a r i o u s s e x u a l a n d r a c i a l d i f f e r e n c e s ,

a n d s o m e o f t h e s e a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y f o u n d t o b e o f i m p o r t a n c e i n m e d i c i n e .

S o m e t r e a t m e n t s w o r k f o r o n e s e x o r r a c e b u t n o t f o r a n o t h e r .

I g n o r i n g o r d e n y i n g h u m a n d i v e r s i t y c a n h a v e , a n d s t i l l d o e s h a v e , c o s t l y

a n d d a m a g i n g c o n s e q u e n c e s , f o r e x a m p l e i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e V i e t n a m

w a r , e d u c a t i o n a n d t h e f i n a n c i a l c r i s i s a d e c a d e a g o . T h i s w a s a

f a s c i n a t i n g p r e s e n t a t i o n t h a t g o t t h e l i t t l e g r e y c e l l s t i c k i n g o v e r a n d

g e n e r a t e d s o m e l i v e l y d i s c u s s i o n .

I n N o v e m b e r P a t W a l k e r C o m m u n i c a t i n g A r o u n d t h e W o r l d

P a t s t a r t e d w i t h s m o k e s i g n a l s a s o n e o f t h e e a r l i e s t f o r m s

o f v i s u a l c o m m u n i c a t i o n w h i c h b y T u d o r t i m e s b e c a m e f i r e

b e a c o n s t h a t w a r n e d L o n d o n o f t h e a p p r o a c h i n g S p a n i s h

A r m a d a . L i g h t h o u s e s c o m m u n i c a t e d h a z a r d s t o m a r i n e r s ,

1 2

e a r l y e x a m p l e s s u c h a s t h e o n e a t A l e x a n d r a b e c a m e f a m o u s a s

p i o n e e r i n g t e c h n o l o g y . T h e n P a t m e n t i o n e d 3 s i m p l e

f o r m s o f s h o r t d i s t a n c e c o m m u n i c a t i o n , t h e v o i c e p i p e , 2

c a n s t i e d t o g e t h e r w i t h s t r i n g a n d j u n g l e d r u m s .

H e t h e n d e a l t w i t h l o n g e r d i s t a n c e s w i t h s e m a p h o r e u s i n g

f l a g s , a n d t e l e g r a p h y u s i n g e s p e c i a l l y M o r s e c o d e u s i n g

k e y s e n d e r s a n d l a r g e l i g h t s w i t h m o v a b l e v a n e s . T h e

n e x t i t e m w a s t h e i n v e n t i o n o f w i r e l e s s

c o m m u n i c a t i o n s b y M a r c o n i e s t a b l i s h i n g e a s i e r

t r a n s a t l a n t i c c o m m u n i c a t i o n s . T h e n e x t i t e m c o v e r e d

w a s h o w t h e t e l e p h o n e s y s t e m

w o r k e d s t a r t i n g f r o m a h o u s e

w i t h a p a i r o f w i r e s t o a p o l e ,

g o i n g u n d e r g r o u n d i n e v e r i n c r e a s i n g c a b l e s i z e s

u n t i l t h e y r e a c h e d t h e e x c h a n g e . T h e n t h e

e v o l u t i o n f r o m m a n u a l e x c h a n g e s , S t r o w g e r

m e c h a n i c a l e x c h a n g e s o n t o d i g i t a l e x c h a n g e s a n d

h o w e v e r y t h i n g w a s c o n n e c t e d .

T h e n e x t i t e m t o b e e x p l a i n e d w a s h o w c a b l e s , f i b r e o p t i c s a n d

w a v e g u i d e s w e r e u s e d t o c a r r y m e s s a g e s a n d r e q u i r i n g m u l t i - l a y e r e d

p r o t e c t i o n . T h i s l e d o n t o e x p l a i n i n g h o w r a d a r s y s t e m s w o r k e d w h i c h

l i n k e d c l e a r l y t o a e r i a l s y s t e m s t r a n s m i t t i n g a n d r e c e i v i n g s i g n a l s a t

v a r i o u s r a d i o f r e q u e n c i e s o v e r l o n g a n d s h o r t d i s t a n c e s l e a d i n g t o h i g h

f r e q u e n c y r a d i o t r a n s m i s s i o n s u s e d i n m o d e r n d a y p o i n t t o p o i n t s a t e l l i t e

t r a n s m i s s i o n s .

P a t t h e n s u m m a r i z e d h o w t h e i n t e r n e t s y s t e m w o r k e d u s i n g c o d e d d a t a –

p r o b a b l y t h e m o s t c o m p l i c a t e d w o r l d w i d e

c o m m u n i c a t i o n s e v e r ; b u t w o r k i n g b e t t e r t h a n t h e

h i g h l y s e n s i t i v e a e r i a l s y s t e m s t r y i n g t o

c o m m u n i c a t e w i t h E T . R a d i o s i g n a l s e v e n t r a v e l l i n g

a t t h e s p e e d o f l i g h t c o u l d t a k e a s l o n g a s a h u n d r e d

y e a r s j u s t t o r e a c h t h e o t h e r s i d e o f o u r g a l a x y , l e t

a l o n e r e a c h i n g a n y w h e r e e l s e i n t h e u n i v e r s e .

C l e a r l y P a t , l i k e o t h e r a s t r o n o m y e n t h u s i a s t s i s n ’ t

s a t i s f i e d w i t h j u s t c o m m u n i c a t i n g a r o u n d t h e w o r l d .

A f a s c i n a t i n g d e s c r i p t i o n h i g h l i g h t i n g t h e r a d i c a l c h a n g e s d u r i n g t h e l a s t

1 5 0 o r s o y e a r s .