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2018 Real Estate Trends in Northeastern Ohio

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Page 1: 2018 - ULI Cleveland · types, and geographic submarkets. This survey complements the national PWC/Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate®, adding an in-depth local

2018Real Estate Trendsin Northeastern Ohio

Page 2: 2018 - ULI Cleveland · types, and geographic submarkets. This survey complements the national PWC/Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate®, adding an in-depth local

2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

1

2017-8 ULI CLEVELAND TRENDS REPORT

Prepared by Robert Simons, Ph.D.

Alexandra Malkin

Levin College of Urban Affairs

Cleveland State University

[email protected]

Prepared for:

ULI Cleveland

January 2018

BACKGROUND

This is the fourth edition of The ULI Cleveland District Council’s Real Estate Trends in Northeast Ohio. It takes the pulse of the region’s real estate market, including capital markets, various sectors of property types, and geographic submarkets. This survey complements the national PWC/Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate®, adding an in-depth local perspective to the national survey’s insights on the U.S. economy and real estate markets.

In September 2017, ULI Cleveland distributed a link to an online survey to its e-mail contact list. The sur-vey was available online between September 20 and October 25, 2017 and 77 non-random responses were collected, a response rate of about 9%. Additionally, 16 in-person interviews were conducted with key lo-cal experts from the private and public sectors across a range of professional disciplines, in particular real estate development, management, finance, and planning.

The information presented in this report includes quantitative data and quotes from the personal inter-views.

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This survey provides a general overview of how the 77 respondents view various sectors of the real estate market. It should not be used as a basis for investment decisions.

About one-third of survey respondents are in a management position at their companies, and their compa-nies are reported as active in markets both in and outside the State of Ohio.

Main points drawn from the responses are:

• Generally, the Cleveland and Northeast Ohio real estate market is good, and consensus is that it should be about the same next year.

• Respondents expect to see a good profitability in real estate businesses in 2018, especially in multi-family, with a focus on townhomes.

• The most important financial issues for real estate investment and development in 2018 will be:o job,income and wage growth, followed closely by o interest rates, o inflation, ando state and local budget problems.

• The top potential needs for land development are:o more economic growth (a greater demand for real estate), o infrastructure, o more workforce for construction and skilled trades, ando better public transportation.

• Residential rental and office sectors are still strong, even with a little decline, especially in residen-tial-rental. The industrial and distribution sector has increased in percentage growth compared to last year.

1

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

ACTIVESECTORS,2014-2017CHANGES

2014

2015

2016

2017

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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2 YEAR COMPARISON: STATE OF THE OVERALL REAL STATE MARKET: PER SECTOR

2

0

6

12

18

24

Peak EarlyDecline AdvancedDecline BottomedOut Recovery/Growth Growth

Num

berofRespond

ents

Residential/Hotels,2016

AllApartments AllResidential-ForSale AllHotels

3

0

2

4

6

8

10

Peak EarlyDecline AdvancedDecline BottomedOut Recovery/Growth Growth

Num

bnerofR

espond

ents

Residential/Hotels,2017

AllApartments AllResidential-ForSale AllHotels

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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4

0

5

10

15

20

Peak EarlyDecline AdvancedDecline BottomedOut Recovery/Growth Growth

Num

berofRespond

ents

Non-Residential,2016

AllOfMice AllRetail AllIndustrial AllInstitutional/Public

5

0

5

10

15

20

Peak EarlyDecline AdvancedDecline BottomedOut Recovery/Growth Growth

Num

berofRespond

ents

Non-Residential,2017

AllOfMice AllRetail AllIndustrial AllInstitutional/Public

2 YEAR COMPARISON: STATE OF THE OVERALL REAL STATE MARKET: PER SECTOR

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

5

• The majority of respondents (68%) feel the real estate capital markets through 2018 are in balance, and half the respondents felt that some increase (34%) is expected in the availability of equity capi-tal.

• Compared with last year’s survey, it is evident that the respondents agree that the apartment sec-tor and the residential for-sale sector have been growing. However, respondents expressed concern that there has been too much focus on high-end rental units.

• Respondents agree that the office sector has been in a steady recovery/growth stage.• The industrial sector has picked up significantly compared to last year.• The general view is that most of the markets are currently moving from a recovery/growth stage to

growth stage potential, while retail continues on a declining trend with regional malls in advanced decline.

• Hospitals lead the growth of the institutional/public sector, with higher education following close behind. Such institutions are investing in the market, which contributes to the jump from last year.

• The hottest submarkets with good-excellent prospects continue to be:o University Circle, ando Downtown Cleveland. All respondents regard the economic health of the region as vital to

continued growth.

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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*No comparable data from 2017 available

6

ABYSMALPOOR FAIR GOODEXCELLENT1 2 3 4 5

Cleveland-East

LorainCounty

PortageCounty

LakeCounty

GeaugaCounty*

CuyahogaCountySouthCentralandCuyahogaValleySuburbs*

CuyahogaCountySoutheasternSuburbs*

CityofAkron

MedinaCounty

SummitCounty

CuyahogaCountyEasternSuburbs

CuyahogaCountySouthwesternandWestShoreSuburbs

Cleveland-West

DowntownCleveland

UniversityCircle

PROSPECTSFORVARIOUSNORTHEASTOHIOSUBMARKETSIN2018

2018 2017

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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SURVEY RESULTS

METHODOLOGY

A total of 77 respondents participated in the survey. Survey respondents chose and answered questions re-lated to their professions, thus different sectors have a different number of responses. Not all respondents answered every question in their chosen sectors. Most questions before the property sector component of this report (apartment, retail, office, industrial) have sufficient sample size to be instructive (typically 20-30 responses). Each of the sector responses have about twenty responses, partially because housing respondents did not answer retail questions, and vice versa. This is at the lower end of the range of accept-able samples, and these results should be viewed with caution. When the number of responses falls below ten, these results should only be considered as anecdotal evidence of trends.

The survey was sent out and answered during fall of 2017, but the forecasting questions refer to the re-spondents’ expectations for the 2018 real estate market.

The questions were asked in varying formats. To provide a better comparison, the CSU Levin College re-search team converted selected answers to standardized results on a 1-5 Likert scale. For example, abysmal prospects are assigned a score of 1, poor scores get a 2, fair scores a 3, good scores receive a 4 and excellent scores are 5. The same scale is used for comparison of prospects: running from much worse (scoring a 1) to much better (5).

SURVEY RESPONDENT CHARACTERISTICS

We have a broad diversity of professionals. Professional service firms represent the largest share of survey respondents at 25%, followed by other business (23%) and a tie between private developer and govern-ment (13%).

7

13.30%

5.30%

9.30%

13.30%

1.30%25.30%

2.70%

4.00%

1.30%

1.30%

22.70%

CHART1:RESPONDENTSBYFIELD PrivateDeveloper

REIT

Lender

Brokerage

PropertyManagement

ProfessionalServiceFirm(consultant,engineer,etc.)Builder

Government

University

Healthcare

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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Our respondents operate in a variety of positions. Close to a third of survey respondents were Director/Manager (28%) and Associate Employee (25%). Others were Owner (21%) or Vice President (12%) of their firm.

With respect to markets in which respondents are active, over half of the respondents’ organizations (51%) are active in markets both in and outside Ohio, while 28% of respondents are focused on the Northeast Ohio real estate market only.

8

21.30%

1.30%

1.30%

12.00%

28.00%

25.30%

10.70%

CHART2:RESPONDENTSBYPOSITION

Owner

President/CEO

EVP/COO/CFO

VicePresident

Director/Manager

Associate

Other

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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GENERAL BUSINESS PROSPECTS

Overview

Survey respondents affirm their real estate businesses (all sectors combined) performed well in 2017, and expect them to still do so in 2018. 81% of survey respondents indicated their profitability to be good or excellent in 2017, and the same percent expect profitability to be good or excellent in 2018. A total of 72 respondents answered this question, and Chart 3 shows their expectations.

CAPITAL MARKETS

Capital availability

In general, survey respondents felt that real estate capital through 2018 is in balance, accounting for 68% of the responses. Chart 4 shows this majority, while 21% of respondents agree that capital markets are undersupplied. Since availability of capital is a key component to real estate development and ownership, there is some concern about tight markets in 2018, tied into lending potential.

A significant portion of the respondents agree that some increase (34%) is expected in the availability of equity capital for real estate and lending. No change overall is the most popular answer, reflecting 41% of the responses. Chart 5 shows that only 23% of the respondents agreed that some decline is likely.

Concerning the capital markets, our interviewees mentioned:

“…bigger banks are pulling back, but second tier banks are coming in. However, banks are always backward looking—look at risk of the past instead of looking for risk in the future.”

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

Abysmal Poor Fair Good Excellent

Num

bero

fRespo

ndents

CHART3:EXPECTEDPROFITABILITYOFREALESTATE-RELATEDBUSINESS,2015-2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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“Cost and returns are tighter and cannot attract the big players. Fair amount of debt capital available. Industry standpoint – haven’t had a real estate-led recession yet. Do not want risk above peers. More expensive capital. Banks/regulators throttled back too much. Equity is brutal. Can’t get returns. Costs are high.”

Overall, the consensus is that there is not a lot of equity coming in from out of town to Cleveland, with sec-ond tier banks taking a step forward to finance projects. However, the generally optimistic data and com-ments don’t necessarily align, indicating we may be reaching a peak in some of our capital markets.

10

2%

21%

68%

9%

CHART4:OVERALLSTATEOFTHEREALESTATECAPITALMARKETSTHROUGH2018

SubstaintiallyUndersupplied

Undersupplied

InBalance

Oversupplied

11

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

LargeDecline SomeDecline NoChange SomeIncrease LargeIncrease

CHART5:EXPECTEDCHANGEINEQUITYCAPITALFORREALESTATEANDLENDING

2016 2017 2018

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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NORTHEAST OHIO MARKET

Overview

According to survey respondents, job growth (4.3), interest rates (4.0), and income/wage growth (3.8) are the top economic and financial issues for real estate investment and development in 2018, followed by infrastructure at 3.7, and GDP growth and state and local budget problems at 3.5, and energy prices at 3.2. The rest of the issues were not rated or of no relevance for the respondents.

Overall the survey reports that the most active sectors in Northeast Ohio are: office (59%), residential-rental (56%), and retail (49%) The greatest increase from last year’s data is the jump in industrial and distribution activity at an 18% increase. None of the other sectors can match that growth, however office, institutional and public, and niche sectors all saw an increase relative to 2016. Retail continues to see a de-cline, while residential-for sale is experiencing a bigger decline than in previous years, down 7% compared to 2016. See charts 7 and 8.

CHART 7: ACTIVE SECTORS

Sector 2014 2015 2016 20172014-2017 Change

in %2016-2017

Change in %Residential - rental 52.9% 71.0% 55.6% 55.9% 3.0% 0.3%

Retail 41.2% 53.2% 51.9% 49.2% 8.0% -2.7%Office 32.4% 51.6% 55.6% 59.3% 26.9% 3.7%

Residential - for sale 8.8% 22.6% 32.1% 25.4% 16.6% -6.7%Hospitality 17.7% 21.0% 24.7% 23.7% 6.0% -1.0%

Institutional/public 8.8% 17.7% 19.8% 23.7% 14.9% 3.9%Industrial/distribution 20.6% 14.5% 24.7% 42.4% 21.8% 17.7%

Niche/alternative 20.6% 14.5% 13.6% 15.3% -5.3% 1.7%

12

CHART7:ACTIVESECTORS

Sector 2014 2015 2016 20172014-2017Changein%

2016-2017Changein

%

Residential-rental 52.9% 71.0% 55.6%55.9%

3.0%0.3%

Retail 41.2% 53.2% 51.9%49.2%

8.0%-2.7%

Office 32.4% 51.6% 55.6%59.3%

26.9%3.7%

Residential-forsale 8.8% 22.6% 32.1%25.4%

16.6%-6.7%

Hospitality 17.7% 21.0% 24.7%23.7%

6.0%-1.0%

Institutional/public 8.8% 17.7% 19.8% 23.7% 14.9% 3.9%Industrial/distribution 20.6% 14.5% 24.7% 42.4% 21.8% 17.7%

Niche/alternative 20.6% 14.5% 13.6% 15.3% -5.3% 1.7%

NOIMPORTANCE MODERATEIMPORTANCE GREATIMPORTANCE1 2 3 4 5

EnergyPrices

State&LocalBudgetProblems

GDPGrowth

Infrastructure

Income&WageGrowth

Interest

JobGrowth

CHART6:IMPORTANCEOFECONOMICANDFINANCIALISSUESFORREALESTATEINVESTMENTANDDEVELOPMENTIN2018

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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NORTHEAST OHIO GEOGRAPHIC SUBMARKETS

Submarket prospects

Based on 77 responses, University Circle and Downtown are still viewed as having the best prospects in the region for real estate activity in the year ahead, with a rating of 4.4 and 4.2 (good-excellent) respectively. Downtown kept its relatively high rating, but was down a notch, while University Circle has continued to experience growth and surpassed downtown.

Also achieving good ratings this year are Cleveland’s west side neighborhoods (3.7). the Cuyahoga County Southwestern and West Shore Suburbs category (including Lakewood, Rocky River, Fairview, Westlake, and Bay Village), remains in 4th position at 3.6. On the other hand, Lorain County, Cleveland’s East neighbor-hoods, and Portage County rated fair, showing little to no change from last year’s prospects. It should be noted that geographic categories were different this year than last, so time comparisons are not possible for all locales.

13

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

CHART8:ACTIVESECTORS,2014-2017CHANGES

2014

2015

2016

2017

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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14

ABYSMALPOOR FAIR GOODEXCELLENT

1 2 3 4 5

Cleveland-East

LorainCounty

PortageCounty

LakeCounty

GeaugaCounty*

CuyahogaCountySouthCentralandCuyahogaValleySuburbs*

CuyahogaCountySoutheasternSuburbs*

CityofAkron

MedinaCounty

SummitCounty

CuyahogaCountyEasternSuburbs

CuyahogaCountySouthwesternandWestShoreSuburbs

Cleveland-West

DowntownCleveland

UniversityCircle

PROSPECTSFORVARIOUSNORTHEASTOHIOSUBMARKETSIN2018

2018 2017

*No comparable data from 2017 available

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

14

Land use and development needs

The respondents believe that more economic growth is the dominant force in driving land use and contin-ued development in Northeast Ohio. For last year’s survey, the most important need was greater availabil-ity of sites for development, which is now ranked in 6th place. The opposite was the case for better building and zoning regulations, which ranked last and now ranks in 4th place. Another interesting jump is the need for more workforce for construction and skilled trades, which has steadily climbed and comes in at 2nd place. Chart 10 provides this information.

Some of the comments from the roundtables were that:

“We don’t have a vibrant market (growth job/population), but affordable, quality, comfortable living and lifestyle at a manageable cost. Starting to see interest, 6% yield in Cleveland may not be great, but investors from outside may find those re-turns great. We have unique features- returns are one, but still a challenge on filling inventory.”

“Public transit is a challenge, but also an asset. Bus connectivity. State Funding is a challenge. We have lack of funding for public transit…”

Previous respondent also noted a lack “brownfield remediation. We have a shortage of available land.”

“Job creation is the single most important thing our metro needs- public, private, non-profit all need to collaboratively work toward that shared goal.”

15

LowPriority ModeratePriority HighPriority1 2 3 4 5

Betterparkingdowntown/OhioCity

Greateravailabilityofsitesfordevelopment

Betterpublictransportation

Betterbuilding&zoningregulations

Infrastructure*

Moreworkforceforconstructionandskilledtrades

Moreeconomicgrowth

CHART10:IMPORTANCEOFPOTENTIALNEEDSFORLANDUSEANDDEVELOPMENTINNORTHEASTOHIO

2018 2017 2016

*Was not asked in 2016

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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When asked which demographic factors they deemed most important for real estate development, par-ticipants agreed that wage growth (53%) is most important, followed by household formation (26%). Re-garding which finance factors are the most important for real estate development, survey respondents believe creative financing (62%) is most important and the least important is deleveraging trends (10%). As to which public leadership factor is most influential for real estate development, participants’ opinions ranked investment in infrastructure as the most important one (50%), followed by zoning reform (28%) and land availability (15%).

There are two factors out of four that survey participants think are important for economic development: both space efficiency (47%) and healthy/green design (44%) were the dominant responses.

NORTHEAST OHIO APARTMENT SECTOR

Overall, the apartment sector in Northeast Ohio is perceived as good. According to the range of 25-29 survey respondents, the apartment industry is growing. However, over 27% of the respondents think the general apartment sector is peaking, similar to the response and assumption of last year.

“Luxury market is near peak, but high demand for moderate apartments.”

“Our market (particularly downtown) has a lot of mid-range units, but few true Af-fordable Housing (tax credit) options and few High Income/High Quality units. This pinch is causing many units, particularly spreading into the near west side housing market, to be over inflated in value. Basically, a lack of true, high-end units are caus-ing those willing to pay more to get in bidding wars and as they are willing to pay too high of a premium comparing to quality for many units/homes.”

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Peak EarlyDecline AdvancedDecline BottomedOut Recovery/Growth Growth

Num

bero

fRespo

ndents

CHART11:CURRENTSTAGEOFREALESTATECYCLE-APARTMENT(N=25-29)

AllApartments LuxuryApartments ModerateApartments TaxCreditApartments StudentHousing

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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Apartment Cycle

Chart 11 shows respondents’ perception of the current market cycle for luxury apartments, moderate apartments, tax credit apartments and student housing. The vertical axis shows the number of responses out of the range of 25-29 people that answered these questions.

Overall, perceptions of the apartment sector in Northeast Ohio are good. Most survey respondents believe the apartment sector is growing, and some believe it is at the peak, especially the high-end sector. Tax credit apartments (48%), moderate apartments (45%), and student housing (36%), are considered to be the market segments best positioned at this time.

Apartment Recommendations

We asked respondents to recommend whether to buy, hold or sell. Based on 26 responses, about 73% of investment recommendations for the apartment sector in 2017 are hold or buy, especially for moderate apartments. Luxury apartments have gained the least support for buying and have the highest response to sell at 63%.

NORTHEAST OHIO RESIDENTIAL-FOR SALE SECTOR

This year, a majority of respondents believe that the residential-for sale market is in a growth stage. 86% of respondents believe that the overall residential for sale market is either recovering or growing, except for manufactured home communities which are stable. Parts of the residential for-sale sector are showing hints of decline compared to last year. This is the smallest sample size of our sectors, so caution is advised in relying too heavily on this information.

Most investment recommendations for 2018 are to sell, with the exception of recommendations to buy for affordable housing and senior/elderly housing.

Residential-For Sale Cycle

Chart 12 shows the respondents’ view on the market cycle for single family development, single fami-ly home building, townhome/condo construction, affordable housing, senior housing and manufactured home communities.

The overall view is that the residential-for sale market in Northeast Ohio is cycling through growth to peak, and early decline. Respondents see senior housing as the fastest growing (50%). Single-family homebuild-ing has shifted to the peak stage of growth from the growth stage last year, while townhome/condominium construction is in recovery/growth stage.

Residential For-Sale Recommendations

Investment recommendations for residential for-sale investors in 2018 are to sell (46%), a shift from last year, when the majority recommendation was to buy. The sectors with the highest score in the “buy” rec-ommendation are senior/elderly housing and affordable housing at 46%. The only sector where the “sell” answer comes in highest is for single family lot development (54%), which is not surprising as many re-spondents see this sector in early decline, or bottoming out.

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NORTHEAST OHIO RETAIL SECTOR

Overall, retail in Northeast Ohio is mixed. According to the range of 23-25 survey respondents, most retail sectors are in early or advanced decline. However, some respondents do see neighborhood/community shopping centers in a recovery/growth stage. Our local experts said:

“We are still over retailed in almost every market.”

“National retail market is changing, but growth in local/boutique retail following market trend.”

Most investment recommendations for retail business were to sell in 2018.

Retail Cycle

Chart 13 shows respondents’ perception of the current retail cycle for regional malls, power centers and neighborhood/community centers.

Overall, perceptions of retail in Northeast Ohio are grim. About 29% of survey respondents believe neigh-borhood and community shopping centers are in the recovery phase, an answer that has been maintained from last year survey, but dropped significantly from 62% for the 2017 outlook. A great percentage of re-spondents (60%) believe regional malls are in advanced decline. About 42% of the respondents mention that they see power centers as being in the early decline stage.

17

0

2

4

6

Peak EarlyDecline AdvancedDecline BottomedOut Recovery/Growth Growth

Num

bero

fRespo

ndents

CHART12:CURRENTSTAGEOFREALESTATECYCLE-RESIDENTIALFORSALE(N=8-13)

AllResidential-ForSale SingleFamilyLotDevelopment SingeFamilyHomebuilding

Townhome/CondominiumConstruction AffordableHousing Senior/ElderlyHousing

ManufacturedHomeCommunities

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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Retail Recommendations:

Respondents were asked to recommend whether to buy, hold or sell retail real estate. Based on a range of 23-25 responses, almost half of investment recommendations for retail in 2018 (48%) are to sell. In the case of regional malls, the majority of the respondents agree that it is time to sell (68%). For neighborhood/community shopping centers the consensus is that it is time to buy or hold (80%).

NORTHEAST OHIO OFFICE SECTOR

Overall, the office market in Northeast Ohio is mostly growing or recovering. According to the range of 30-31 respondents, most sectors of the office industry are in the recovering/growth phase. The overall invest-ment recommendation for office is to hold, while the majority of respondents for suburban office agree to sell at 59%.

“Approaching single digit % vacancy in Class A office in Downtown.”

“Demand is up for Class A Downtown. Older A & B space conversion to apartments thanks to historic state tax credit programs. Modest employment growth. Mixed use things are going well.”

Office Cycle

Respondents’ perception of the current cycle for the office sector for central city offices, suburban offices and medical offices is shown in chart 14 below. Overall, perceptions for the office sector in Northeast Ohio indicate a recovery. Half of the survey responses believe central city offices have made a large shift towards recovery while medical offices are either growing or recovering.

18

0

4

8

12

16

Peak EarlyDecline AdvancedDecline BottomedOut Recovery/Growth Growth

Num

bero

fRespo

ndents

CHART13:CURRENTSTAGEOFREALESTATECYCLE-RETAIL(N=23-25)

AllRetail RegionalMalls PowerCenters Neighborhood/CommunityShoppingCenters

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2018 ULI Cleveland Emerging Trends Report

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Office recommendations

Respondents were asked to recommend their conclusions of buy, hold or sell. Based on the range of 30-31 responses,269% of investment recommendations for general office in 2018 are to hold. However, some respondents think it may be a good time to sell suburban offices 456%), and buy central city offices 749%).

NORTHEAST OHIO: OTHER SECTORS

There were too few respondents to provide definitive results, so these following sections should be consid-ered anecdotal.

Industrial sector

519-21 people participated in the survey for this sector. According to this limited sample, the industrial market in Northeast Ohio is good. According to survey respondents, most sectors of industrial are growing. Based on their responses, most of the investment recommendations for industrial in 2017 are to buy, with 74% respondents recommending buying in the bulk/distribution space.

“NEO is well positioned to be a central point for industrial and distribution - great location to reach many nearby markets (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Columbus, etc.)

Hotel sector

311 people participated in this part of the survey. Overall, the hotel sector in Northeast Ohio is good. Ac-cording to the respondents, the hotel sector is peaking (77%). Based on the responses, investment recom-mendations for hotels in 2017 are to hold full-service hotels 3.5%) and sell limited-service hotels (.5%).

19

0

4

8

12

16

Peak EarlyDecline AdvancedDecline BottomedOut Recovery/Growth Growth

Num

bero

fRespo

ndents

CHART14:CURRENTSTAGEOFREALESTATECYCLE-OFFICE(N=30-31)

AllOfMice CentralCityOfMice SuburbanOfMice MedicalOfMice

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Institutional/Public sector

A range of 10-11 people participated in the survey on the institutional sector. They believe the education sector in Northeast Ohio is mixed. According to survey respondents real estate needs for higher education might be at a recovery/growth stage, while hospitals are in growth (63.6%). General investment advice for education in 2018 is to hold.

Niche/Alternative sector

A range of 5-8 people participated in the survey on niche/alternative sectors. According to survey respon-dents, lifestyle/entertainment retail is in early decline (50%), while land and urban mixed-use properties are seen to be in a growth stage. Investment recommendations favor buying land at 65%. Lifestyle/enter-tainment retail gets a sell recommendation.

SUMMARY

The respondents of this year’s ULI trends report believe that the real estate market in Northeast Ohio is in good health and they generally expect the trend to continue through 2018, especially in the industrial sector, office and parts of the multifamily residential sector., An increase in the supply of capital in 2018 is expected. Job, income and wage growth are the most important financial issues to look for as drivers of real estate investment and development in the next year. Still, we detect a hint of a topping-out to several sector markets.

For the fourth year in a row, Downtown, University Circle and the Cleveland West Side and western suburbs are chosen as the hottest submarkets.

Finally, our respondents agree that more economic growth and more workforce for construction and devel-opment are key factors in the health of Northeast Ohio real estate markets.

20

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Peak EarlyDecline AdvancedDecline BottomedOut Recovery/Growth Growth

Num

bero

fRespo

ndents

CHART15:CURRENTSTAGEOFREALESTATECYCLE-INDUSTRIAL(N=19-21)

AllIndustrial Bulk/DistributionSpace GeneralIndustrial R&DIndustrial Self-Storage

Page 22: 2018 - ULI Cleveland · types, and geographic submarkets. This survey complements the national PWC/Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate®, adding an in-depth local

ULI Cleveland Leadership District Council ChairMackenzie Makepeace – Forest City Realty Trust

Chair for Mission AdvancementSteve Ross – CBRE

TreasurerAdam Hill – Cohen & Company

Governance ChairAdrian Byrne – Lund-Byrne Associates

ULI Cleveland Sponsors GoldCumberland Development LLC • Forest City Enterprises • The NRP Group • RSM US LLP • Thompson Hine LLP

SilverBaker Hostetler • Benesch • KeyBank Real Estate Capital • Maloney + Novotny LLC • Novogradac & Company LLP • PNC Bank • Walter | Haverfield LLP

BronzeAriel Ventures • Associated Bank • Barnes Wendling CPAs Inc. • Beegan Architectural Design• Calfee, Halter & Griswold LLP • Cohen & Company • Dollar Bank • Fairmount Properties LLC • First American Title Insurance Co. • First Commonwealth Bank • First Interstate Properties, Ltd. • Flagship Properties LLC • HW&Co. • Legacy Capital Partners • Sleggs, Danzinger & Gill Co., LPA

Urban Land Institute Cleveland30200 Detroit Road, Westlake, OH 44145440.899.0010•[email protected]•cleveland.uli.org

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Our thanks go to the many people who made contributions to the development of this new ULI report.

The ReportThe information gathered from the on-line survey and interviews was assembled into the report by:

Alexandra Malkin and Robert A. Simons, Ph.D. of the CSU Levin College of Urban Affairs

Review CommitteeGrace Gallucci – NOACA

Cathryn Greenwald – Thompson Hine LLP

Eileen McConville – Forest City Realty Trust

Michael Smith – Barnett Advisors

Gregory Ward – Associated Bank

InterviewsConsiderable time and effort was contributed by members of the ULI Cleveland District Council’s Young Leaders, namely:

Lateefah Burns – CBRE

Chelsea Kulhanek – Allegro Realty Advisors, Ltd.

Eileen McConville – Forest City Realty Trust

JC Stiassni – NAI Daus

Amber Tanzillo – Omni Title LLC

Oversight and PlanningSurvey Coordination and Emerging Trends program management:

Eileen McConville – Forest City Realty Trust

ULI Cleveland Sponsorship CommitteeAmber Tanzillo – Omni Title LLC

ULI Cleveland Programs CommitteeLarry AppleSharon Knuth – global X

ULI Cleveland Membership & Sponsorship CommitteeJose Casanova – Lakeland Management System

Adam Rosen – Detroit Shoreway Community Development Organization

ULI Cleveland Outreach CommitteeRob Weeks – R-Weeks Consulting LLCULI Cleveland Young LeadersEileen McConville – Forest City Realty Trust

Jennifer Heimlich – Walter | Haverfield LLP

ULI Cleveland WLI CommitteeCathryn Greenwald – Thompson Hine LLP