2020 automation market update · 2020. 1. 23. · f9 2010 f9 2011 f9 2012 f9 2013 f9 2014 f9 2015...

2020 Automation Market Update

Alex Shikany

Vice President – Membership & Business Intelligence

Association for Advancing Automation

MFG Outlook

Robotics Vision Motion AI

Agenda

Manufacturing Outlook

Survey from 4th Quarter 2018 Survey from 4th Quarter 2019

Source: 2019 Fourth Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey; www.nam.org/outlook/



68.2%

60.4%

56.9%

22.0%

16.5%

65.1%

18.5%

21.4%

37.9%

4.4%

Manufacturing PMI

Source: IHS Markit, ISM & Advisor Perspectives; www.advisorperspectives.com

Tech Trends in Robotics

Mobility

Vision

Gripping

AI

Opening doors to new robotics applications

Mobility Applications

• Autonomously mobile bases

• Onboard Intelligence Systems

• Use computer vision and sensors

• Can include robot arms for

material handling

Presented by:

www.robotics.org/AMR

New AMR Conference

Source: IFR World Robotics 2018

Professional Service Robots (Logistics, Field, Agriculture)

2018: 165,300 units (+32%)

+21% per year (2019-2021)

Domestic / Household Robots (Vacuums, Lawnmowers)

2018: 7.5 million units (+23%)

+31% per year (2019-2021)

Entertainment Robots (Toys, Leisure)

2018: 2.8 million units (+20%)

+12% per year (2019-2021)

Mobile “Industrial” Robots are

Represented in this Category

Mobile Robot Market is Growing Rapidly

NA Jan. – Sep. Results23,894Units Ordered

5% Growth

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

F9 2010 F9 2011 F9 2012 F9 2013 F9 2014 F9 2015 F9 2016 F9 2017 F9 2018 F9 2019

Robot Orders by Industry (North America, Jan-Sep, 2010-2019)

All Other Industries

Metals

Life Sciences

Plastics and Rubber

Semiconductor & Electronics

Food & Consumer Goods

Automotive Component

Automotive

Source: RIA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.robotics.org

NA Jan. – Sep. Industry Growth

-10%

-6%

-5%

0%

0%

4%

15%

47%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Semi & Electronics/Photonics

Metals



Life Sciences/Pharma/Biomed


Plastics & Rubber

Automotive OEM

NA January – September 2019 Order Growth (Units, YoY)


NA – Jan. – Sep. Auto vs. Non-Auto

4,614

7,202

10,449 9,244

13,690 14,528

16,617

18,490

11,830 13,312

4,992 6,414 5,914 6,487

7,545 7,899 7,368 8,804

10,878 10,582

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

F9 2010 F9 2011 F9 2012 F9 2013 F9 2014 F9 2015 F9 2016 F9 2017 F9 2018 F9 2019

Robot Orders: Auto vs. Non-Auto (North America, January-September 2010-2019)

Automotive Non-Automotive Linear (Automotive) Linear (Non-Automotive)


North America - IndustriesEst. 31,144

Units Ordered+5% Growth


-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Robot Orders by Industry (North America, ANNUAL, 2010-2019)


Metals

Life Sciences

Plastics & Rubber

Semiconductor & Electronics



Automotive

Global Robotics Sales Forecast

Source: IFR, World Robotics 2019

Vision + Imaging

ARTHOS Vision Index

Source: Arthos.de

M&A Still Prevalent

Source: Arthos.de

M&A Still Prevalent (Cont.)

Source: Arthos.de

Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues

Source: WSTS

PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX)

Source: PHLX SOX Index, Yahoo Finance

Semiconductor Investment

Woodside Capital Partnerswww.woodsidecap.com

First Nine Month Comparisons (Thousands USD)2018 2019 Raw Change Raw Growth

Cameras $167,159 $151,171 -$15,988 -9.6%Lighting $54,993 $54,114 -$878 -1.6%Optics $31,863 $32,788 $926 2.9%Imaging Boards $29,907 $29,110 -$797 -2.7%Software $14,919 $15,380 $461 3.1%MV Components $298,841 $282,563 -$16,277 -5.4%

ASMV $1,522,185 $1,446,046 -$76,138 -5.0%Smart Cameras $341,019 $333,137 -$7,881 -2.3%Total MV Systems $1,863,203 $1,779,184 -$84,019 -4.5%

Other MV $6,341 $6,203 -$138 -2.2%

Total Fin Tran $2,168,385 $2,067,950 -$100,434 -4.6%

North American Machine Vision Market

Source: AIA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.visiononline.org

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020*

Machine Vision Sales (Components + Systems + Other, North America, Thousands USD)

-4% +5%

North American Machine Vision Market

Source: AIA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.visiononline.org

Machine Vision Market Drivers

Source: Global M&A Partners

Motion Control & Motors

Motion Control & Motor Markets

Source: MCMA Statistical Program; Association for Advancing Automation; www.motioncontrolonline.org

$0.0

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0

$700.0

$800.0

$900.0

$1,000.0

Total Reported Market – Quarterly (Millions USD)

Motion Control & Motor Markets


$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

$4,000.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020*

Total Reported Market

~0% 2-3%

Motion Controllers


-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

3/12 Rate of Change

Electronic Drives


-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

3/12 Rate of Change

Motors


-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

3/12 Rate of Change

Actuators & Mechanical Systems


-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

3/12 Rate of Change

AI + IOT Survey

•THE CHALLENGE

• A New Beat For the Factory

• AI + IoT are already factory accelerators (at least for some)

• But what is required to accelerate the accelerators?

• Last 2 years – capturing moments in the real world to answer that question.

37 Faith McCreary & Irene Petrick | ACCELERATE – AI, IOT, and a New Beat for the Factory I © 2019 Intel Corporation I All rights reserved.

38 Faith McCreary & Irene Petrick | ACCELERATE – AI, IOT, and a New Beat for the Factory I © 2019 Intel Corporation I All rights reserved.

“Lorem Ipsum Lorem Ipsum

Lorem Ipsum Lorem Ipsum




Lorem Ipsum Lorem Ipsum”

- Whoever, said it really

83% Companies Planned to Invest But …FUTURE IN MOTION

TOP PLANNED TECHNOLOGY

INVESTMENTS IN NEXT 2-3 YEARS

51% Artificial intelligence

44% Predictive or big data analytics

35% Smart machinery or equipment

31% Robotics

29% Smart upgrades to existing equipment

25% Additive manufacturing

24% Smart building

23% Smart asset tracking or monitoring

19% Virtual or augmented reality

18% Blockchain

17% Intelligent vision systems

17% Industrial automation

15% Indoor location tracking

12% Real-time coaching systems

12% Industrial wearables

10% Digital twins

10% Voice interaction

9% 5G

9% Autonomous guided vehicles

8% Integrated Controls

6% Fog or edge computing

5% Drones

“I mean we're going through an assessment period

right now and I know that everybody that I work with is

going to be changing due to these assessments in our

organizational restructuring. If we keep on doing them,

then my project is going to get passed between so

many different people, that it will never see the light of

day. I've had four different plans because I've had four

different managers that view the initiative very

differently. Changing a plan slows you down even after

we have the buy-in.”PRINCIPAL MANUFACTURING ANALYST,

END MANUFACTURER

39 Faith McCreary & Irene Petrick | ACCELERATE – AI, IOT, and a New Beat for the Factory I © 2019 Intel Corporation I All rights reserved.39 Faith McCreary & Irene Petrick | ACCELERATE – AI, IOT, and a New Beat for the Factory I © 2019 Intel Corporation I All rights reserved.

Work Desk in Factory Warehouse

“I think a major outage from a

security-related attack to some

IoT systems that cause a big

business impact might just

make everyone say, ‘Hey, let's

not do this. We are not ready.’ I

think that is going to scare the

hell out of many of us."

IT AND AUTOMATION OPERATIONS MANAGER,

ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURER

36% TECHNICAL SKILL GAPS that prevent us from benefiting from our investment

27% DATA SENSITIVITY from increasing concerns over data and IP privacy,

ownership, and management

23% LACK OF INTEROPERABILITY between protocols, components, products, and

systems

22% SECURITY THREATS both in terms of current and emerging vulnerabilities in the

factory

18% HANDLING DATA GROWTH in amount and velocity as well as sense-making

18% SCALABILITY ROADBLOCKS to accommodating growth without any business

or performance loss

11% OUTPACING MARKETABILITY by our solutions getting too far ahead of

customer and partner capabilities

10% MAINTAINABILITY CHALLENGES that make the advanced systems difficult to

keep up and running

8% NOT TRUSTING advanced systems due to lack of transparency about smart

actions and outputs

Challenges with Potential to Derail Investment

Alex ShikanyVice President

Membership & Business Intelligence

Association for Advancing Automation900 Victors Way STE 140

Ann Arbor, MI, USA

Telephone: +1 (734) 929-3274

Email: [email protected]

Twitter: @AlexShikany

Thank you!

2020 automation market update · 2020. 1. 23. · f9 2010 f9 2011 f9 2012 f9 2013 f9 2014 f9 2015...

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