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2020 Interim Results Presentation 30 July 2020

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Page 1: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

2020 Interim

Results PresentationThursday, 1 August 201930 July 2020

Page 2: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN, INTO OR FROM ANY

JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OR REGULATIONS

OF THAT JURISDICTION

This presentation may contain ‘forward-looking statements’ with respect to certain of the Group’s plans and its current goals

and expectations relating to its future financial condition, performance, results, strategic initiatives and objectives. Generally,

words such as “may”, “could”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “aim”, “outlook”, “believe”, “plan”, “seek”,

“continue” or similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of

future performance. By their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future

events and circumstances which are beyond the Group’s control, including amongst other things, UK domestic and global

economic business conditions, market-related risks such as fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates, the policies and

actions of regulatory authorities (including changes related to capital and solvency requirements), the impact of competition,

inflation, deflation, the timing impact and other uncertainties of future acquisitions or combinations within relevant industries, as

well as the impact of tax and other legislation or regulations in the jurisdictions in which the Group and its affiliates operate. As

a result, the Group’s actual future financial condition, performance and results may differ materially from the plans, goals and

expectations set forth in the Group’s forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements in this presentation are current

only as of the date on which such statements are made. The Group undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking

statements, save in respect of any requirement under applicable law or regulation. Nothing in this presentation should be

construed as a profit forecast.

Basis of presentation

This presentation uses alternative performance measures, including certain underlying measures, to help explain business

performance and financial position. Further information on these is set out in the 2020 Interim Results announcement.

Page 3: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Agenda

Introduction

Strategy & business improvement actions

Regional update

2020 Interim Results

Q&A

1

2

3

4

5

Page 4: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Introduction

Page 5: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

First half 2020 presented unique global challenges

5

Introduction

• To sustain customer service and support

• To operate securely and near ‘normally’ from home, safeguarding our

people

Our priorities have been:

• To secure RSA’s resilience for all stakeholders

• To ensure we remain focused on delivering our plans and to perform

well in challenging economic times

Page 6: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

2020 Interim Results highlights1

6

Introduction

• No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory

consideration and market uncertainties. Intent to resume as soon

as prudent, expected to be by year end

• Underwriting profit up 33%, COR a record 92.2%, underlying EPS

23.5p up 12%, underlying ROTE 16.7%

• Focus on delivering our plans continues, including underwriting

improvement and cost control while facing into a slow economic

environment

3

1

• Result driven by underwriting improvement:

− Scandi COR 83.2%, Canada 93.2%, UK&I 93.6%

− Weather costs above prior year, large & attritional losses better

(ex COVID)

2

4

Note (1): underlying measures, ex. exits

Page 7: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

COVID-19 impact on RSA

7

Introduction

• Net impact on RSA H1 operating profit broadly neutral. Consisting of:

− Lost contribution from lower premiums (c.£110m NWP)

− Provision for COVID-19 claims £82m gross, £56m net

− “BAU” frequency benefits £129m

− Increase in ‘margin’ £25m

− £6m reduction in investment income

• Impacts on investment portfolio/balance sheet:

• £54m ‘below the line’ charges

• Solvency II ratio 172%1 (158%1 post dividend accruals); COVID-19

market impact 8 points net

3

1

• Premium trends and claims frequency starting to normalise in June but

H2 uncertainty remains. UK ‘BI test case’ verdict expected in Q3

2

Note (1): Solvency II position at 30 June 2020 is estimated

Page 8: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Strategy & business improvement actions

Page 9: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Update on 2020 priorities

Strategy

• Sustain high performing business areas:

− H1 Personal Lines COR 86.0% (H1 ’19: 89.9%) – 55% of NWP

− Growth impacted by COVID-19

• Continue to improve Commercial Lines underwriting1:

− H1 Commercial Lines COR 96.8% (H1’19: 98.8%) – 45% of NWP

− Attritional loss ratio improved 1.9 points (ex-COVID)

− Large losses improved 1.1 points (ex-COVID)

− Exits near complete but recording some tail losses

• Cost efficiency remains a priority:

− UK £50m2 cost savings achieved; more targeted

− Group written controllable costs down 1% vs. H1 19

91 Ex. UK/ London Market exit portfolios2 Written controllable costs vs. 2018 baseline (gross of inflation)

Page 10: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Strategy is ‘pursuit of outperformance’ through…

10

Strategy

Strong customer franchises

Disciplined business focus, majoring on strengths, seeking to

avoid mistakes

A balance sheet that protects customers and the company

Intense and accomplished operational delivery – improving

customer service, underwriting and costs

1

2

3

4

Page 11: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Performance improvement levers

11

Performance

Advance customer service

• Digital platforms for convenience, flexibility and speed

• Increase customer satisfaction and retention

• Sharpen customer acquisition tools

Further improve underwriting

• Elevate underwriting disciplines

• Ongoing ‘BAU’ portfolio re-underwriting

• Invest in analytics, tools and technology

• Optimise reinsurance

Drive cost efficiency

• Deploy ‘lean’, robotics & process redesign

• Optimise overheads & procurement

• Site consolidation & outsourcing

• Automation

TechnologyKey

enablers:Focused performance culture

2

1

3

‘Best-in-class’ COR ambitions

• Scandinavia < 85%

• UK & International < 94%

• Canada < 94%

Earnings

• High quality, repeatable earnings

• Attractive EPS increases

• ROTE 13-17% or better

Dividend

• Regular payout 50-60%, plus

additional payouts as available

and prudent

Underpinned by strong balance

sheet and capital management

Targets

Page 12: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

12

Customer metrics stable overall, ex. COVID-19 impacts

Customer retention (%) Personal Lines – policies in force

Commercial Lines – volumes

84 82

Personal

8581

Personal Broker

74

78

Personal

Scandinavia

Canada

UK

87

79

Commercial

78 80

Commercial1

UK1Scandi Canada

0%

-5%

-11%

Customer

7779

Commercial

H1’19 H1’20

90 89

Johnson

1 Ex. UK/ London Market exit portfolios2 Excluding impacts of COVID-19

H1’19 H1’20

-8%2

-7%2

-4%2

CanadaScandi UK1

COVID-19 impacts

H1’19 H1’20Note: Retention excluded the

impact of COVID-19

Page 13: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Attritional loss ratio improving again

13

Underwriting

Group2

Canada

Scandinavia

Attritional loss ratios (%)1

UK & International4

Personal Lines2

Commercial Lines2

Of which:

1 2015 and 2017 loss ratios restated for reinsurance changes2 At constant FX and ex. disposals where relevant3 Excluding the impacts of COVID-194 Excluding UK/London Market portfolio exits

H1’15

50.9%

H1’17 H1’19 H1’20

59.0%

55.4% 54.9%

53.4%3

H1’15 H1’19

61.8%

H1’17 H1’20

67.0%

63.5% 63.8%63.4%3

H1’19

56.2%

H1’15 H1’17

50.5%

H1’20

61.3%

57.9%

52.2%3

H1’15 H1’20H1’17 H1’19

42.5%

53.3%

49.9%48.4% 48.0%3

58.2%

53.7%

H1’19 H1’20

57.1%3

48.2%3

H1’19

44.9%

H1’20

50.0%

COVID-19 impacts

Page 14: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Cost competitiveness remains key part of strategy

14

Costs

Group

− Goal is controllable cost ratios below 20% in every business

− COVID-19 impact on top line means more to do on cost

21.321.8

H1’19 H1’20

+0.5 points

22.022.3

H1’19 H1’20

+0.3 points

17.6

20.1

H1’19 H1’20

+2.5 points22.9

22.3

H1’19 H1’20

-0.6 points

Scandinavia

UK & International

Note: Costs and cost ratios shown on an earned basis, excluding UK/London Market exit portfolios. Group at constant FX.

Canada

£671m £670m £193m £187m

£147m £170m £330m £310m

Page 15: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Underwriting – Personal Lines

Underwriting

55% of Group Net Written Premiums1

.

Key points:

• Premium growth in most profitable lines e.g. Sweden +2%2 and Johnson +12%2

• Strong underwriting results in every region:

− Scandinavia: Sweden very strong; Denmark good and improvement continues; Norway improved

− Canada: Johnson very strong and improved; Personal broker volumes down with performance now hitting target

profitability. Strong rate carried across all portfolios

− UK & International: Volume reduction driven by lower new business in Personal Motor. UK Household volumes

ahead of Plan and retention sharply up

• COVID-19 impact: £67m NWP drop, 2.4% COR benefit, 3.4% attritional benefit

Summary results

H1’202 H1’192

Net Written Premiums 1,711 1,754

Attritional loss ratio (%) 53.7% 58.2%

Weather ratio (%) 2.6% 2.9%

COR (%) 86.0% 89.8%

Current year COR (%) 86.2% 90.7%

1 Split based on HY 2020 Group NWP (ex. exits)2 At constant FX and ex. UK/ London Market exit portfolios

26%

8%

International

Scandinavia

UK

33%Canada

33%

15

Page 16: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Underwriting – Commercial Lines

Underwriting

45% of Group Net Written Premiums1

.

1 Split based on HY 2020 Group NWP (ex. exits)2 At constant FX and ex. UK/ London Market exit portfolios

Key points:

• Net written premiums down, part as planned, part COVID-19

• Attritional loss ratios improved across all major geographies

• Large losses improved ex-COVID (c.2 points related to COVID-19), expect further improvements as

underwriting and pricing actions earn through

• Underwriting performance improved significantly in Denmark. UK impacted by COVID-19 related

losses but underlying as planned. Canada still disappointing

• COVID-19 impact: £42m NWP drop, 3.3% attritional benefit and c.2% large cost

29%

International3

32%

UK

23%

Scandinavia16%Canada

3 Ireland, Middle East, London Market and European branches16

Summary results

H1’202 H1’192

Net Written Premiums 1,388 1,444

Attritional loss ratio (%) 44.9% 50.0%

Large loss ratio (%) 19.3% 18.4%

Weather ratio (%) 3.9% 3.1%

COR (%) 96.8% 98.8%

Current year COR (%) 97.9% 99.7%

Page 17: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

COVID-19 underwriting impacts

17

Underwriting

• Outlook for H2 not clear. Expect top line pressure from soft

economies, could be risk from “second wave” or local lockdowns.

Frequency benefits should normalise during Q3. UK “BI test case”

in focus for Q3 also

• Premiums reduced by combination of coverage changes, refunds,

price capping and volume impacts – c.£110m NWP

• “Bau” claims frequency benefits booked of £129m after provision for

pattern uncertainty. Frequency starting to normalise as lockdowns

ease. Margin increased by £25m as a further reserve

3

1

• H1 provision for COVID-19 claims £56m net (£82m gross):

− BI £47m (inc. IBNR), Travel £26m gross and Wedding £9m

− Of which UK&I £54m net and Scandi £2m

2

4

Page 18: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Regional update

Page 19: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

19

Scandinavia

£1.0bnH1’20 Scandi

NWP

-3% vs. H1’19

-1% at CFX

Medium term

outlook:

+1-4% CFX

Split of Scandinavia NWP

Progress H1’19 H1’20Covid-19

impactAmbition

COR 89.1% 83.2% 1.5 pts <85%

Current year COR 90.2% 86.2% 1.5 pts

Attritional loss ratio 63.8% 61.8% 1.6 pts

Controllable

expense ratio1 22.0% 22.3% N/a <20%

Key points

• RSA’s most valuable business

• Results significantly improved vs. H1’19

• Net written premiums down 1%2 as planned,

Danish Commercial renewals the key driver

• Excellent Personal Lines performance

continues – COR 78.4%

• Improvement areas showing encouraging

results:

− Danish Commercial Lines showing

significant improvement in underlying loss

ratios, but not yet declaring victory – COR

93.7% (H1’19: 113.9%)

− Norway continued loss ratio improvement

• Costs flat but ratio increased slightly – more

work expected in H2

1 Earned underwriting controllable cost ratio2 At constant FX

5%

9%

Liability

Property

Other CL

12%

18%

19%

18%

CL Motor

PA & other

Household 19%

PL Motor

Regional update

Page 20: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

20

Canada

Split of Canada NWP

13% 3%

Marine & other

5%

Property

Liability

7%CL Motor

29%

Household

43%PL Motor

Regional update

Key points

• Underwriting profit improved significantly

helped by hard market conditions

• Net written premiums up 3%2 despite

customer relief measures

• Attritionals (ex. COVID-19) improved 4 points

vs. H1’19

• Cost expected to be <20% at full year

• Johnson continues to demonstrate good

growth, profitability and customer retention

• Broker Personal Lines improved sharply

• Commercial Lines volumes down, offset by

rate as targeted. Attritional and large losses

improved – more to do

1 Earned underwriting controllable cost ratio2 At constant FX

£795mH1’20 Canada

NWP

+4% vs. H1’19

+3% at CFX

Medium term

outlook:

+2-4% CFX

Progress H1’19 H1’20Covid-19

impactAmbition

COR 97.8% 93.2% 1.1 pts <94%

Current year COR 99.3% 92.3% 1.1 pts

Attritional loss ratio 56.2% 50.5% 1.7 pts

Controllable

expense ratio1 17.6% 20.1% N/a <20%

Page 21: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

21

UK & International

Split of UK&I NWP

14%

9%

8%

11%

Marine

& other

23%

23%

Property

Liability

Pet

CL Motor

Household12%

PL Motor

Regional update

Key points

• Continued improvement in UK&I results,

including and excluding COVID-19 impacts

• Ireland and Middle East continue stand out

performance.

• UK COR 96.1%1; current year COR 95.0%1 –

significantly better adjusted for weather

• Attritionals 5.9 points better (5.5 points

COVID-19 related)

• Weather 1.9 points worse driven by UK

February floods; large losses flat (ex. COVID-

19)

• Cost ratios improved despite COVID-19

impact on premiums. UK cost programme

phase I complete but with further cost takeout

underway

• Business exits substantially accomplished.

C.£7m remains to run-off in H2

1 Ex. UK/ London Market exit portfolios2 Earned underwriting controllable cost ratio

£1.3bnH1’20 UK &

International

NWP

-8% vs. H1’19

-8% at CFX

Medium term

outlook:

+1-4% CFX

Progress H1’19 H1’20Covid-19

impactAmbition

COR1 94.0% 93.6% 1.1 pts <94%

Current year COR1 94.3% 93.6% 1.5 pts

Attritional loss ratio1 48.4% 42.5% 5.5 pts

Controllable expense

ratio1,2 22.9% 22.3% N/a <20%

Page 22: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Ambition remains focused on driving towards best-in-class capabilities and performance

22

Ambition

Scandinavia Canada UK & International

Financial ambition

best-in-class combined ratios

< 94%< 85% < 94%

Net w rit t en premium (£bn)

(CFX)

At t rit ional loss rat io2 (%) Operat ing expense rat io 1 (%)

1.61.6

2014 20152013

1.5

Ambit ion

+2- 4%

20142013

64.867.5

- 2- 3pts

Ambit ion2015

64.5 17.0 16.9 16.4

Ambit ion

- 2- 3pts

201520142013

63.7 pre Impact

of discount adj2.

Net w rit t en premium (£bn)

(CFX)

At t rit ional loss rat io (%) Operat ing expense rat io 1 (%)

2013

1.4

+0- 3%

Ambit ion2015

1.4

2014

1.4

2014

62.8

2013

62.1

- 1.5- 2.5pts

Ambit ion2015

60.315.1 15.9 16.8

Ambit ion201520142013

- 1- 2pts

Net w rit t en premium (£bn)

(CFX)+2- 4%

Ambit ion2015

2.6

2014

2.6

2013

3.0

2015

48.1

2014

49.0

2013

50.2

- 2- 3pts

Ambit ion

15.2 14.1 13.7

2013

- 0.5- 1pts

Ambit ion20152014

At t rit ional loss rat io (%) Operat ing expense rat io 1 (%)

2020-211 2020-211 2021-221

1 Represents management ambition assuming ‘normal’ volatile items

Page 23: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

2020 Interim Results summary

23

Summary

Service to customers, safety of our people and resilient operation our

top priorities

1

2

3

4

5

Focus on delivering our plans remains strong. H1 trends encouraging

H1 underwriting profit up 33%, COR a record 92.2%, underlying EPS

23.5p up 12%, underlying ROTE 16.7%

COVID-19 impacts on operating profit broadly neutral in H1, though

uncertainty remains

Financial market impacts of COVID-19 hit capital & “below the line”

results, but within tolerable bands

6 Outlook positive as we continue to focus on customers and on actions to

sustain strong delivery for 2020 and beyond

Page 24: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

2020 Interim Results

Page 25: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Performance summary

25

Interim results

Key comments

Excellent current year underwriting result, partly offset

by lower prior year development. Limited underwriting

impact from COVID-19

Underlying EPS of 23.5p1 up 12% versus PY, driven

by strong underwriting results

Business operating profit reflects strong underwriting

result but investment income lower (as expected)

Group Net Written Premiums down 3% at constant FX

due to c.£110m of COVID-19 impacts1

Statutory profit measures impacted by other charges

Other charges include: COVID-19 financial market

volatility (net losses £46m and discount rate change

£8m), exit portfolio losses (£33m), UK restructuring

charges (£18m) and Norway goodwill impairment

(£5m)

Underlying ROTE of 16.7%1 in the upper part of 13-

17% target range

2

3

4

5

6

£m (unless stated) H1’20 H1’19

Net Written Premiums1 3,136 3,242

Underwriting result1 240 181

Current year underwriting result1 222 155

COR1 (%) 92.2% 94.3%

Business operating result1 349 308

Other charges (incl. exit portfolios) (138) (81)

Profit before tax 211 227

Profit after tax 164 183

EPS 13.5p 15.3p

Underlying EPS1 23.5p 20.9p

Underlying ROTE1, annualised 16.7% 15.0%

H1’9

Tangible net asset value £3.2bn £2.9bn

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

7

5

Note: H1 2019 comparative numbers shown at reported exchange1 Ex. UK/ London Market exit portfolios for non-statutory measures

TNAV up 9% driven by profits, exchange gains and

fair value mark-to-market movements

8

Page 26: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Premiums

26

Interim results

1 At constant FX2 Volume growth represents the value of new business net of lapses3 Excluding UK/London Market exit portfolios

Group Net Written Premiums down 3% at constant FX (flat excluding COVID-19)Growth

Growth drivers

Retention

Personal Lines Commercial Lines

CFX growthPolicy count

growthCFX growth Volume growth2

Scandinavia 1% 0% (4%) (8%)

Scandinavia (ex. COVID-19) 1% N/a (3%) (8%)

Canada 4% (5%) 1% (7%)

Canada (ex. COVID-19) 8% N/a 1% (7%)

UK&I3 (11%) (9%) (6%) (11%)

UK&I3 (ex. COVID-19) (4%) N/a (1%) (6)%

1

2

3

Personal Lines growth in Canada and Sweden

Retention up in UK and Canada Commercial; down in Scandinavia

1

3

Growth in Swedish Personal Lines (2%1) and Swedish Commercial Lines (1%1) but Commercial Lines down overall driven by planned underwriting

actions in Danish Commercial Lines

2

Johnson premiums up 12%1 (5% organic) while Personal Broker premiums down 6%1. Commercial Lines premiums up 1%1 as strong rate helped to more

than offset a 7% decline in volumes

UK&I Personal Lines premiums down 11%1,3 driven by UK and Ireland Motor. Commercial Lines premiums down 6%1,3 driven by 2018 and 2019 portfolio

actions. Significant impact of COVID-19 on both Personal and Commercial Lines growth

Page 27: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Underwriting results1

27

Interim results

1 Ex. UK/ London Market exit portfolios 2 Ratio movements at constant FX3 Excluding the impacts of COVID-19

Group COR walk (%)2 (UWR: £240m)

94.3

4.0

0.9

1.0

H1’19

92.2

Attritional

loss ratio

H1’20Expense ratio

92.63

‘Volatile items’

83.2%COR

H1’20H1’19

89.1%

84.7%3

93.2%

H1’20H1’19

97.8%

94.3%3

H1’19

94.7%394.0%

93.6%

H1’20

Scandinavia (UWR: £141m)

Canada (UWR: £58m)

UK & International1 (UWR: £89m)

2.5 points benefit from

COVID-19 net of margin

COVID-19 impacts

1.1 points adverse impact from COVID-19

Page 28: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Loss ratios

28

Interim results

1 At constant FX2 Ex. UK/ London Market exit portfolios3 Excluding the impacts of COVID-19

Loss ratio walks H1’19 to H1’20 (%)

5.93.8

59.9

Prior yearH1’19 Attritional

loss ratio

Weather & large

0.4

3.33

58.2

H1’20

61.5

Group1,2 Scandinavia

Canada UK & International2

4.0

66.6

Weather & largeH1’19 Attritional

loss ratio

0.70.3

Prior year

1.43

63.6

H1’20

65.0 2.0

1.9

1.7

71.9

Attritional

loss ratio

H1’19 Weather & large Prior year

1.53

66.3

H1’20

67.8

5.7

3.3 2.31.53

70.8

H1’19 Attritional

loss ratio

Weather & large Prior

year

64.1

H1’20

65.6

1.7 points benefit relating

to COVID-195.5 points relating to COVID-19

2.5 points benefit relating

to COVID-19

1.6 points benefit relating

to COVID-19

1.7 points adverse

relating to COVID-19

0.9 points adverse

relating to COVID-19

Page 29: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

‘Volatile’ underwriting items1

29

Interim results

1 Excluding UK/ London Market exit portfolios 2 5 year averages are for Group ex. disposals; they are annual averages for 2015 to 2019 inclusive3 UK & International4 Excluding the impacts of COVID-19

Weather costs slightly above H1 19 and the five year average; Canada better than PY but UK&I

worse driven by UK February floodsWeather

Large losses improved in Scandinavia and Canada, UK&I flat ex. COVID-19 related losses

Lower (but still positive) prior year development

Large

Prior year

Weather ratio Large loss ratios Prior year ratio

H1’20

3.0%

H1’19

3.4%

+0.4%

9.6%

H1’19 H1’20

0.9%4

9.0%

-0.6%0.2%4

(0.9)%

H1’20H1’19

(0.6)%

+0.1%

• 5 year average: 2.9%2 • 5 year average: 10.0%2 • Reserve margin >5%

8.5%

8.9%

9.9%3

H1’19 ratios:

7.4%

7.4%

11.8%3

10.1%3,4

H1’20 ratios:

9.9%

Page 30: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Controllable costs

30

Interim results

Group earned controllable cost ratio 21.8% up 0.5 points1 versus H1 2019. Driven by

COVID-19 impact on premiums with earned costs slightly lower at £670mH1 2020

Regional view

UK & International ratio improved as UK cost programme benefits earn through. Canada

higher (as guided) due to planned software amortisation as well as COVID-19 premium

impacts and Scandinavia higher driven by underwriting actions on the topline (Scandinavia

absolute costs down versus H1 2019)

1 Group at constant FX and excluding UK/ London Market exit portfolios

UK cost programme

• Programme costs total £45m since

inception (£18m charge YTD)

• £50m run-rate benefits achieved vs.

2018 baseline (c.£40m net of inflation)

• Further cost takeout underway

• UK continues to target <20%

controllable costs by 2022

21.3

21.8

18

20

16

22

24

H1’20H1’19

+0.5 points

Earned controllable expense ratio (%)1

Scandinavia GroupCanada UK & International

Page 31: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Investment portfolio

31

Interim results

• Investment strategy unchanged: High quality, low risk

fixed income portfolio. £6m H1 COVID-19 impact

• Average income yield on bond portfolios of 1.9% (H1 19:

2.2%), average reinvestment rate 0.7% (H1 19: 1.3%)

• Unrealised gains of £428m (pre-tax) increased by c£55m.

Driven by unrealised bond gains of c.£125m offset by

declines in value of REITs and preference shares of

c.£70m

• Guidance based on forward yields and FX

• Increase in AFS reserve for the bonds and flattening of

yield curve means that, if yield curves were to stay as

they are, gains are predicted to take around 7 to 8 years

to fully unwind, with around 50% within the next 3 years

• AFS unwind estimated to be c.£40m (post-tax) for H2

2020 and c.£80m for 2021, impacting capital generation

by a little less than those amounts

• Continue to expect discount unwind on long-tail liabilities

of c.£30m per annum and investment expenses of

c.£14m per annum

£m2020

guidance

2021

guidance

2022

guidance

Investment

income

c.£255-

270m

c.£240-

255m

c.£235-

250m

Gross investment income guidanceGross investment income H1’2019 vs. H1’2020

Key comments Key comments

H1’20H1’19

£154m

£134m

-13%

Page 32: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Statutory profit after tax £164m

32

Interim results

£m H1’20 H1’19

Business operating result ex. exits 349 308

Exit portfolios (33) (28)

Business operating result inc. exits 316 280

Interest (17) (16)

Other charges (88) (37)

Profit before tax 211 227

Tax (47) (44)

Statutory profit after tax 164 183

Non-controlling interest (12) (13)

Other equity costs (12) (12)

Net attributable profit 140 158

1 2

Key comments

4

1

2

4

5

Other charges of £88m included £54m of

COVID-19 related impacts:

• £26m on inflation linked derivatives and

property

• £20m impairments (primarily REITs)

• £8m charge for discount rate changes on

long term liabilities in Denmark

Effective tax rate 22% (H1 2019: 20%) and

underlying tax rate 21% (H1 2019: 18%).

Excluding exits underlying tax rate 20% (H1

2019: 18%)

Primarily relates to Middle East minorities

5 Other equity costs include £7m coupon costs

on restricted Tier 1 securities, reflected directly

in equity, and £5m preference dividend

Other charges also included £18m relating to

the UK cost programme

3 3

Page 33: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Solvency II position

33

Interim results

1 The Solvency II position at 30 June 2020 is estimated2 Represents profit after tax (ex. Exits and Reorg. Costs) attributable to ordinary shareholders, adjusted for non capital items3 Reflects 6 months’ accrual of a ‘notional’ dividend amount for the year; this ‘notional’ amount should not be considered in any way to be an indication of actual dividend amounts

for 20204 Excluding accruals for 2019 final dividend and 2020 ‘notional’ interim dividend

Movement in Solvency II coverage ratio1 (%) Market impacts by factor

Target range 130-160%: Prefer to operate above top end of range

14%

5%

6%

8%

2%

1%

Bond pull-

to-par

172%4

168%

FY’19 Underlying

capital

generation2

Net capex

& pensions

2%

Exits Reorg.

Costs

Notional

dividend

accrual3

Markets

gains &

losses

158%

H1’20

Market movements – H1 2020 Coverage

Yields (5)%

REITs / preference shares (4)%

Othera 1%

Market gains and losses (8)%

a Other includes the impacts of spreads (dampened

by the Volatility adjustment), foreign exchange,

pensions and other movements which broadly nets

out

Pension surplus

IFRS pension surplus increased £117m,

providing a 5 point additional unrecognised

buffer to the Solvency II ratio. This brings

the total unrecognised pension buffer to 8

points.

CT1

= 106%

CT1

= 100%

Page 34: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

To conclude1…

34

Summary

Service to customers, safety of our people and resilient operation our

top priorities

1

2

3

4

5

Focus on delivering our plans remains strong. H1 trends encouraging

H1 underwriting profit up 33%, COR a record 92.2%, underlying EPS

23.5p up 12%, underlying ROTE 16.7%

COVID-19 impacts on operating profit broadly neutral in H1, though

uncertainty remains

Financial market impacts of COVID-19 hit capital & “below the line”

results, but within tolerable bands

6 Outlook positive as we continue to focus on customers and on actions to

sustain strong delivery for 2020 and beyond

Note (1): underlying measures, ex. exits

Page 35: 2020 Interim Results Presentation · 2020 Interim Results highlights1 6 Introduction • No interim dividend proposed reflecting COVID-19 regulatory consideration and market uncertainties

Q&A