2020 North of Falcon

1

NOF # 1 Ocean Options

2020 NOF #1 Presentation Agenda2

Slides Available Online: http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/management/north-falcon/

9:30 – 11:00 Introduction• Welcome and Introduction• COVID-19 update and NOF process for 2020• Management Framework• North Of Falcon process overview• NOAA Guidance/Management

Objectives/Stocks of Concern for 2020• Non-treaty Ocean Options• Preliminary modeling results• Challenges for 2020

Kyle AdicksMark BaltzellDerek Dapp

COVID-19 and NOF Primary concern is for the health and safety of our employees

and constituents All in person public meetings are cancelled and will be

replaced with livestream, teleconference, and other digital formats that will ensure processes continue and information is disseminated.

The final PFMC meeting scheduled for early April in Vancouver has been moved to a digital only format. Specific information can be found at https://www.pcouncil.org/

Check the WDFW often for all related materials, recordings of meetings, public comment sections. https://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/management/north-falcon

Special note to people new to the NOF process:

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2020-02/nof_background_information_and_glossary_0.pdf

• WDFW has developed a document that describes NOF process and a glossary of terms and acronyms used in salmon management.

• Can be found under the Forecasts and Model Runs section of the North of Falcon page.

Coast wide:Pacific Salmon Commission

Constraints1. Boldt Decision2. Endangered Species Act3. Pacific Salmon Treaty4. Forecasted run

size/Escapement Goals

Inside:WDFW, ODFW, Tribes

Coastal:Pacific Fishery Management

Council

Management Framework

North of Falcon Process

1. FORECAST THE ABUNDANCE OF EACH

STOCK.

2. DETERMINE IF THERE IS A HARVESTABLE SURPLUS. 3. PROPOSE FISHERIES.

4. MODEL FISHERIES TO DETERMINE WHICH STOCKS

ARE OF CONSERVATION CONCERN, CONSTRAINING

FISHERIES.

5. NEGOTIATE WITH TRIBES AND OTHER STATES FOR

FAIR SHARING OF CATCH AND IMPACTS ON STOCKS THAT ARE CONSTRAINING.

6. FINAL AGREED-TO STATE AND TRIBAL SALMON

FISHERIES (OCEAN, PUGET SOUND) ARE DESCRIBED IN

THE “LIST OF AGREED FISHERIES” DOCUMENT.

Forecast Recap for 2020 Puget Sound Chinook :

Natural stocks down 6% and Hatchery stocks up 14% from recent 10 yr avg

Coastal Chinook Mixed bag on Natural Stocks and Hatchery stocks down 5% from recent 10yr avg

Columbia River Chinook Poor expected returns for Spring and Summer stocks Lower river Hatchery stocks down 42% from recent 10 yr avg

Puget Sound Coho Natural stocks down 48% and Hatchery stocks up 32% from 10 yr avg

Coastal Coho Natural Stocks down 25% and Hatchery stocks down 15% from 10yr avg

Columbia River Coho Very poor returns forecast for 2020.

Southern Resident Killer Whales & Fisheries

• In April 2019,the Pacific Fishery Management Council tasked an Ad-Hoc Workgroup with reassessing the effects of Council-area ocean salmon fisheries on Southern Resident Killer Whales

• Workgroup has held series of public meetings, and drafted a Risk Assessment Framework – available on the Briefing Book page for the March Council meeting - https://www.pcouncil.org/documents/2020/02/e-3-a-srkw-workgroup-report-1-electronic-only.pdf/

• The Workgroup recommendation is to continue Workgroup process to develop potential Fishery Management Plan measures for SRKW based on the risk assessment

• NMFS Guidance letter provided specific Chinook abundance level below which the Council should consideration additional fishery actions to benefit SRKW, in addition to usual guidance for ESA-listed salmon stocks

Ocean/Columbia River Management Objectives

Key Stock Management Criteria (ER or esc)

Columbia Lower River Tules (Chinook) 38% ER

Lower Columbia River Natural (Coho) 18% ER

Grays Harbor Natural Coho 35,400 esc

Queets Natural Coho 5,800 esc

Hoh River Natural Coho 2,000 esc

Quillayute River Fall Natural Coho 6,300 esc

Oregon Coastal Natural Coho 15% ER

Interior Fraser River (Thompson) Coho (Canada) 10% US ER

Chinook Management Objectives PSManagement Unit NMFS Guidance/Co-Manager Proposal

Nooksack Spring 10.5% SUS ERSkagit Summer/Fall 48% Total ERSkagit Spring-run 10.3% SUS ERStillaguamish River 22% Total / 8% UM; 12% M SUS maxSnohomish River 19% Total / 8% SUS ERLake Washington 13% PT SUSGreen River 13% PT SUSWhite River Spring-run 22% SUSPuyallup 13% PT SUSNisqually 47% TotalSkokomish fall-run 50% totalMid Hood Canal TBD PT SUSDungeness 10% SUSElwha 10% SUS

10

Coho Management ObjectivesPuget Sound

Puget Sound Wild Management

Units

2020 AdultForecast

Ocean Age 3

2020 Assigned FMP Status

Total ER Ceiling

Strait of Juan de Fuca

9,269 Critical 10% SUS

Hood Canal 35,860 Low 45%

Skagit 29,492 Low 35%

Stillaguamish 19,462 Normal 35%

Snohomish 39,020 Low 10%SUS

Thompson (Fraser Rv)

- Low 10% SUS

11

Proposed Non-Treaty Ocean quotas for 2020

Alternative #1 Alternative # 2 Alternative # 3

2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019

Chinook 60, 000

Chinook 65, 000

Chinook 45,000

Chinook 55,000

Closed to salmon fishing

Chinook 45,000

Coho 35,000

Coho 205,000

Coho25,000

Coho190,000

Closed to salmon fishing

Coho100,000

Ocean/Columbia River Preliminary Modeling

Key Stock Management Criteria (ER or esc) High Ocean Option

Columbia Lower River Tules(Chinook)

38% ER 36.5%

Lower Columbia River Natural (Coho)

18% ER 17.7%

Grays Harbor Natural Coho 35,400 esc 46,272

Queets Natural Coho 5,800 esc 6,487

Hoh River Natural Coho 2,000 esc 3,456

Quillayute River Fall Natural Coho

6,300 esc 8,558

Oregon Coastal Natural Coho 15% ER 12.1%

Interior Fraser River (Thompson) Coho (Canada)

10% US ER 8.4%

Current Chinook Modeling Puget Sound Management Unit NMFS Guidance/Co-Manager

Proposal2019 Fisheries/2020 Abundances (High Ocean Option)

Nooksack Spring 10.5% SUS ER 8.8%Skagit Summer/Fall 48% Total ER 39.8%Skagit Spring-run 10.3% SUS ER 23.6%Stillaguamish River 22% Total / 8% UM; 12% M SUS max 18.1%/7.6% UM/15.7% MSnohomish River 19% Total /8% SUS 22.3% Total/9.7% SUSLake Washington 13% PT SUS 12.1%Green River 13% PT SUS 12.1%White River Spring-run 22% SUS 16.9%Puyallup 13% PT SUS 12.1%Nisqually 47% Total 50.2%Skokomish fall-run 50% total 49.5%Mid Hood Canal TBD PT SUS 14.4%Dungeness 10% SUS 4.3%Elwha 10% SUS 4.6%

12

Current Coho Modeling(2020 Abundances with 2019

Fisheries)

15

Management Unit ER CEILING High Mid Low

SKAGIT 35% 35.5% 34.7% 33.7%

STILLY 35% 28.1% 27.4% 26.7

SNOHOMISH 10%SUS 22.5% 21.8% 21.0%

SNOHOMISH ESC 50,000 29,319 29,585 29,878

HOOD CANAL 45% 43.0% 42.2% 41.2%

JUAN DE FUCA TRIBS 10% SUS 6.8% 5.8% 4.7%

Lower Fraser (Thompson) 10% SUS 8.4% 7.2% 6.0%

Challenges for 2020 salmon season setting.

Obstacles due to COVID-19 Low forecasted returns of Coho and

Chum salmon Timely agreement with co-managersStillaguamish and Mid-Hood Canal

ChinookSouthern Resident Killer Whale needs

Public Comment

Public Meetings (All switching to online due to Covid-19)March 16 – NOF #1, 9:30 am (live stream)March 17 and April 1 – Columbia River meetings will be online onlyMarch 18,19 and 20 - Eastern Washington meetings cancelled, will be combined into a single online meeting date TBDMarch 19 – Sequim Trinity Church (cancelled; alternative TBD)March 24 – Grays Harbor will be onlineMarch 25 –WDFW, 6 pm (live stream)March 23 – PFMC Ocean fishery hearing will be onlineMarch 31 – North of Falcon #2 (live stream)April 05-10 – PFMC #2 (webinar/TBD)

Public Comment

On-line commenting – March-April

http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/northfalcon/

Puget Sound Sport Fishing Advisory Group

http://wdfw.wa.gov/about/advisory/pssfag/

Puget Sound Recreational Fisheries Discussion

There will be a conference call starting at 11 AM this morning to discuss recreational salmon fishing seasons in Puget Sound.

The call in number for the conference bridge is: (360) 407-3780 (security code) PIN Code: 724018 #

This conference call will be recorded and available on the WDFW website following the call.