2020 southeast alaska pink salmon harvest...
TRANSCRIPT
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2020 Southeast Alaska Pink Salmon Harvest Forecast
NOAA: Jim Murphy, Emily Fergusson,
Charlie Waters, Andrew GrayAlaska Fisheries Science Center
Auke Bay Laboratories
Deccember 3, 2019
ADF&G: Andy Piston, Steve Heinl, Sara
Miller, and Rich Brenner
2019 Purse Seine Task Force Meeting
Sitka, AK
Alaska Department of Fish and Game
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Southeast Alaska Coastal Monitoring Research
Alaska Department of Fish and Game
• Surveys are now being conducted on ADF&G Research
Vessel Medeia.
• Increased cooperation between NOAA and ADF&G;
continued efforts to increase the value of information for the
fishing industry.
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Photo by master photographer Jim Murphy
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Southeast Alaska Coastal Monitoring Research
Alaska Department of Fish and Game
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Paradigm of pink salmon biology:
Mortality during early marine life is high, variable, and a major determinant of year class strength
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Days at sea
Perc
ent surv
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Mortality rates
(Parker 1968, Karpenko 1998)
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Month
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Pink Salmon
Chum Salmon
Sockeye Salmon
Coho Salmon
Chinook Salmon
Surface Trawl Catch per Haul for Juvenile Salmon by Month
Alaska Department of Fish and Game
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Icy Strait Hatchery Chum Salmon Origin
(thermal mark recoveries 1997-2016)
June July August
Alaska Department of Fish and Game
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Pink Salmon Harvest Forecast Model Structure
• Peak surface trawl catch rates (CPUE) in June or July.
• Icy Strait Temperature Index (ISTI)
8Alaska Department of Fish and Game
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Forecast Model Considerations• There are several ways that temperature (ISTI) could be
important to the forecast model.
• Survival: reduced survival during warm years. Since
growth is higher in warm years, this would imply that small
fish have better survival.
• Migration: Increased movement of SEAK stocks through
Icy Strait during warm years.
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Length of Juvenile Pink Salmon
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1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Fis
h L
ength
(m
m)
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Peak CPUE (calibrated) of juvenile Pink Salmon
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Icy Strait Temperature Index (ISTI)
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Icy
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(⁰C
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Southeast Alaska Pink Salmon Harvest Forecast Model
(Calibrated CPUE + ISTI)
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Southeast Alaska Pink Salmon Harvest Forecast Model Performance
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
SE
AK
pin
k s
alm
on h
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t (m
illi
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Adult harvest year
Harvest Forecast
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Southeast Alaska Drought
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Photo by Dave Harris
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Photo by Dave Harris
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North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
2015 2019
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2020 SECM Pink Salmon Forecast Summary
• The 2020 Southeast Alaska pink salmon harvest forecast is:
• 12 million (80% CI = 7 – 19 million).
• The forecast is based on a juvenile abundance index and temperature
(ISTI). The significance of temperature is unclear, it could be due to
variation in survival and/or migration of juveniles.
• Blob reformed in summer of 2018; significant drought throughout Southeast
Alaska in 2018 and 2019.