2021-09 mpw db conf market & product update p
TRANSCRIPT
Matthew SaksVice President Marketing North America
11th Deutsche Bank Aircraft Financing and Leasing Conference
Products for recovery and beyond
Sept 2019:
7,213total order backlog
Matthew SaksVice President Marketing North America
11th Deutsche Bank Aircraft Financing and Leasing Conference
Products for recovery and beyond
Sept 2021:
6,932total order backlog
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
Covid crisis and forecast recovery
* intra regional & long haul international trafficSource: IATA, FlightRadar24, Airbus (March 2021)
North America robust
Europe summer +30%
Driven by high vaccination rate, clearer travel rules
Domestic traffic recovering faster
Traffic (RPKs) base 100 in the equivalent month in 2019
DomesticIATA Actuals
InternationalIATA Actuals
Observed Forecast
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
Source: Airbus (end August 2021)Deliveries for 2020 include 4 A380sDeliveries for 2021 include 2 A380s
To end 2020:566 deliveries, 383 gross orders
To Sept 2021:384 deliveries, 269 gross orders
The means were implemented to facilitate deliveries
Managing the crisis
New-generation performance
The most efficient large widebody
Purpose-built for efficiency
Best-selling single-aisle
In 202038 deliveries 446 deliveries 19 deliveries 59 deliveries+64 orders +296 orders +2 orders +21 orders
In 202130 deliveries 311 deliveries 7 deliveries 34 deliveries+21 orders +234 orders +9 orders +5 orders
Evolution of Airbus deliveries
Sale-and-Leaseback market remain highly competitive
Number of direct lessors stable
Source: Cirium Fleets AnalyzerAirbus to end 2020
Lessors financing majority
0
10
20
30
40
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Number of sale and leaseback lessors
Number of ‘direct’ lessors
Airbus deliveries Number of lessors
Purchase
Sale-and-leaseback
Direct27%
27%
September 2021
31%
24%
Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
Single-aisle fleet mix: 17,100 aircraft
Source: Cirium Dec 2020Includes all passenger in-service & stored aircraft
New-gen aircraft still in the minority
2,200 new gen
14,900 previous genAverage age of 13yrs
Refleetingrequired this decade
13% 17% 17%10% 12% 12% 9% 9% 6%
17,100 5,600 1,000 300 600 4,100 300 4,600 500
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
World Asia Pacific -china
LatinAmerica
China Middle East Europe-CIS CIS NorthAmerica
Africa
Units
WORLD
New / current & previous generation aircraft share
August 2021
Current & previous genNew generation
92%
81%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000 94%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Airline Owned Lessor owned*
Single-aisle fleet evolutionDecember 2019 ~ July 2021
Airbus, Boeing & MDC, passenger, combi & QC aircraft, in airlines fleets. Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer. * Ownership is determined by ‘Manager Company Category’. As at 31st July, 2021
53% single-aisles leased
Same % in-service
Lessors have younger fleet
New generation return fastest
In S
ervi
ceSt
ored
Age Groups25+ years19~25 years13~18 years0~12 years
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
A320 Family: The most successful aircraft family ever
20% lower fuel burn Unbeatable fuel efficiency
A321XLR: On target for Entry into Service in 2023
Strong value retention throughout crisis
Orders7,563
Deliveries1,909
Backlog5,654 120+ operators
end August 2021
Orders15,690
Deliveries10,004
Backlog5 686 300+ operators
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
End of August 2021*Not all customers displayed
643 orders, 173 deliveries, 470 backlog
Significant replacement market
A220 Family: A Diversified Customer Base
Majors39%
Low Cost / Niche Operators
34%
Regionals
5%
Lessors
22%
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
A319 737-700/Classic ERJ Other small jet
>2519-2513-180-12
A320neo51%737-8
45%
C9194%
MC-21-2000.2%
A321neo76%
737-9/-1021%
MC-21-300
3%
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
The market-leading partnershipFirm net orders comparison
Source: Airbus, Boeing, Cirium Fleets Analyzer. July 2021Undisclosed MAX orders allocated by share of known orders
A220 & A320neo Family have60% market share by orders
A220 FamilyA320neo Family
Medium single-aislesSmall single-aisles & large regional jets
Large single-aisles
A220-100/30052%
A319neo6%
737-726%
190/195E2 216%
93%
67%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,00094%
73%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Airline Owned Lessor owned*
Widebody fleet evolution December 2019 ~ July 2021
Airbus, Boeing & MDC, passenger, combi& QC aircraft, in airlines fleets. Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer. *Ownership is determined by ‘Manager Company Category’. As at 31st July, 2021
39% widebody fleet leased
Lessors have younger fleets
More leased in-service than owned
New generation return fastest
In S
ervi
ceSt
ored
Age Groups25+ years19~25 years13~18 years0~12 years
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
777-8
787-8
787-10
787-9
777-9
A350-900 – 332 seats
A350-1000 – 375 seats
A330-900 – 287 seats
A330-800 – 257 seats
Source: Airbus, BoeingEnd June 2021, Passenger variants
Balanced widebodymarket
Airbus775
Boeing814
Widebody backlog
Small-mediumwidebodies
Large widebodies
A350 787
A330 777
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Steady growth of the global widebody fleet
Evolution in 2020
Large aircraft:117 old-gen removed
67 new-gen delivered
Medium aircraft:119 old-gen removed
51 new-gen delivered
In-service + Stored commercial passenger aircraftSource: Cirium Fleets Analyzer2021
Widebody Fleet
Number of widebody passenger aircraft in-service + stored
end end
Small-mediumwidebodies
Largewidebodies
+3.5% pasince 2011
+3.5% pasince 2011 ~2,700
~2,200
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Small/medium widebody aircraft market
In-service + stored commercial passenger aircraftSource: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, 2021
Replacement market of 1,700 previousgeneration types
A330 leads this market
Number of widebody aircraft in-service + stored
end end
~1,000
~500(767, A300, A340-300)Other previous generation
Largewidebodies
New-generation787-8/-9 A330neo
A330ceo ~1,200800
1,200
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
A330neo wins campaigns 2:1 vs. the 787
Campaigns since first flight of A330neo in October 2017. * Excludes top-up Delta Air Lines A330neo re-order which was not opened to competition
A330neo:• Airbus Commonality• Rolls-Royce• Operating economics• Higher seat count• Reliability
787:• US tax incentives• 737 MAX conversions• GE incumbency
Deciding Campaign Factors
16 Campaign wins* 787 7 Campaign wins
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Large widebody aircraft market
In-service + stored commercial passenger aircraftSource: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, 2021
Replacement market of 1,700 previousgeneration types
A350 XWBThe new-gen market leader
Number of widebody aircraft in-service + stored
end end
~1,700
~500 787-10 + A350
A380
777-300747
Small-mediumwidebodies
777-200 & A340-5/600
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
108
48
45
43
33
33
33272623
2222
2019
1716
1616
161515
1313
1010
1010
109
98 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 32
777-300ER operators have selected the A350
763 777-300ERs in service, stored & on order with commercial airlines. Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzeras at 31st July, 2021
70%777-300ERs are A350 customers
A350 is replacing 777-300s
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
Airline incumbency with A350 Family
A350s are the long-term backbone of airline fleets
Synergies to replace 777F/747F
Source: Airbus
Airline incumbency
A350 operator flying 777F A350 operator flying 747F
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference
A22025 % less CO₂
A320neo20 % less CO₂
A321XLR30 % less CO₂
A330neo25 % less CO₂
A350 XWB25 % less CO₂
Products for recovery and beyond
CO₂ savings relative to products they are replacing per seat
© AIRBUS (Airbus S.A.S., Airbus Operations S.A.S., Airbus Operations GmbH, Airbus Operations LTD, Airbus Operations SL, Airbus China LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Company LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Delivery Centre LTD). All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietarydocument. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without theexpress written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith.Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof. AIRBUS, its logo, A220, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.
September 2021 Deutsche Bank Aircraft Finance & Leasing conference